Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
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Development
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Making Harrisonburg A Place Young Alums Can Call Home For Decades |
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 I recently lamented that most new housing that is being built is student housing or rentals -- as opposed to homes that can be purchased by homeowners. And the "why" is because of the highest and best use for development land... "So long as there are student housing, rental housing or mixed use developers willing to buy land at a high price/acre AND/OR as long as owners of development land are willing to hold out for that high price/acre -- then land is not likely to be sold to developers or builders at a price/acre that would allow them to build homes for buyers to buy." Katherine took it one step further (thanks Katherine!) to draw home the "so what" of my observation... "Students are a lucrative and seemingly inexhaustible market, but it's short-sighted not to give some thought to how we can keep more young alumni in the community after graduation. Attractive, affordable starter homes are a piece of this puzzle, as are businesses and services geared toward professionals rather than college students. (And good jobs are, too, of course.) Excessive catering to the student population will make Harrisonburg a town people "remember fondly," not one they call home for decades." I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment -- I want Harrisonburg to be a town that young alums can call home for decades. As Katherine points out, this is not just about housing - but housing is certainly a big part of it. It is not immediately clear what this could / should mean for the City of Harrisonburg -- but I do think we could look back 10 years from now and lament the fact that there weren't enough new developments built to allow for young alums to settle into jobs, buy their first home, and start establishing this as their home for decades. | |
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Harrisonburg, The City With The Planned Future, Plans Their Future |
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 City Council members and top City administrators and planners invested time in planning a future for the City of Harrisonburg at a three day retreat last weekend, with an eye towards Harrisonburg 20 years from now -- in 2039. That vision includes establishing Harrisonburg as the "capital of the Shenandoah Valley". Extensive conversations took place about education (including the new high school) and a comprehensive housing plan (including affordable housing and homelessness). Read much, much more about the retreat, conversations, outcomes and priorities over at The Citizen... If you care about the future of the City of Harrisonburg, read the article above, and give some thought to how you can be an active part of making the future of Harrisonburg brighter. | |
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107 Apartments, Retail, Office Space Proposed on Lucy Drive |
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 The owners of two parcels on Lucy Drive are applying for a rezoning to allow for a mixed use development to be built on the corner of Lucy Drive and Deyerle Avenue. Here is the intended site plan...  Here are some basic details, per today's Daily News Record article (see below) and from the rezoning application:
Read today's Daily News Record article about this potential development here. Review the full rezoning application packet to be reviewed by the Planning Commission on Wednesday here. The public hearing for this rezoning will take place on Wednesday, August 8th at 7:00 PM in City Council chambers. | |
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Lots (and lots) of High End Apartments Being Built |
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 In addition to the 168 apartments about to be built at the intersection of Stone Spring Road and East Market Street (near Preston Lake) -- there are already hundreds now complete at The Reserve at Stoneport. Per my earlier research, it seems this community may contain 408 apartments, with rental rates from $1000 - $1800. How many high end apartments are needed in this area? While only a few years ago no high end apartments existed in our local market, now I believe Stoneport is already nearly entirely leased. How much unmet demand is there for these apartments? Apartment developers don't seem to have met the demand yet. Oh, and also of note in the aerial image above, it seems Dupont Community Credit Union put some solar panels on the roof of their new bank. Nice!  | |
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College Student Housing Under Construction on Port Republic Road |
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 If you've driven on Port Republic Road lately, near Bojangles, you might have noticed construction starting to peek over the top of Port Republic Road. Above is an photo of the construction progress. And here are some images of the planned 425-bed college student housing community...    | |
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Land for New High School Was To Be Student Housing, then Convocation Center |
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 Have you heard Harrisonburg needs a second high school? The current (only) high school in the City is beyond capacity. As such, the City has been evaluated various pieces of land to find a suitable new site for the new high school -- and now they have made a decision. Background... Owners of median priced City homes might have to pay $26 more per month to fund new City high school So, back to the location... The parcel of land shown above is 60 acres located between South Main Street (Route 11) and Interstate 81. The City intends to purchase this land for five million dollars from JMU. But JMU has actually owned it for a few years. You see, this land was actually originally slated to be used for college student housing! More background... So... the land was originally going to house 466 apartments for college students...  And then it was to be the site of JMU's new convocation center...  And now, the site of Harrisonburg's second high school. Read today's Daily News Record article for further context... | |
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Grading Under Way For For High End Apartments, Gas Station |
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 view high resolution photo here If you have drive by the intersection of Route 33 East and Stone Spring Road anytime recently you have likely seen the mass grading that is under way. In the photo above:
Flipping the view around to the other direction -- below is my understanding of the intended use of the space....  download a larger version of this photo here My understanding of this intended usage of this land is based on the Preston Lake master plan as shown below, updated as of December 2016....  The area that is currently being graded will include the area shown below surrounded by a dashed line. This will include 168 apartments in 12 buildings, as well as a clubhouse and pool.  Part of the land being graded in the aerial photo at the top of this post is intended to be used for future commercial development. Read more about the ownership of the land, and the apartments here. | |
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Where Will Recent JMU Graduates, Staying In Harrisonburg, Buy Houses? |
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 It's a numbers games, folks.... Some percentage of each graduating class at JMU (and EMU, and Bridgewater College) will decide they want to stay in Harrisonburg and make it their home. These three institutions seem to graduate around 6,000 students each year. How many might decide to stay in Harrisonburg? In chatting with several folks about this yesterday, I pondered aloud whether enough new "for sale" housing is being built for recent grads to buy, once they decide they want to stick around and buy a home. Or, more broadly, is our housing stock growing as fast as our population. I suspect that it is not -- based on how quickly homes are selling and how low our inventory levels remain month after month. So, what are these recent (within the past few years) JMU grads to do? Perhaps make several offers on several properties, missing out on most because of multiple offer situations, and then eventually securing a contract to buy a home. Or, perhaps they just rent because there is so little to buy. But if many or most of them do rent, it is -- at least in the short term -- a net loss for our community. If they buy a home, they will be putting down roots, committing to stay in the area, investing even further in our local economy, etc. If they are renting, not so much on any of those fronts. Not so long ago (ok -- fine -- 16 years ago) I was a recent JMU graduate -- having just finished up my master's degree -- and my wife (fiancé at the time) and I decided we wanted to stay in this area. We were able to find a townhouse to buy, and were excited to make this our home. The landscape now, at least for recent graduates buying homes, is a bit different. | |
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220 Detached Homes, 175 Duplexes, 225 Townhouses To Be Built in County? |
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 Two rezoning proposals are going before the Rockingham County Planning Commission this week.... 54 Acres on Island Ford Road in McGahesyville (shown above)
Update after Planning Commission meeting.... Island Ford Road rezoning recommended by Planning Commission "In other business, the commission unanimously recommended approval of Gary Sandridge's request to rezone 54 acres on Island Ford Road in McGaheysville from agricultural use to planned single family. Sandridge plans to build 220 units that would connect to the existing Whispering Springs subdivision, which is at the intersection of Island Ford Road and McGaheysville Road." Pear Street rezoning tabled by Planning Commission "Commissioners Brent Trumbo, Rodney Burkholder and Keith Sheets voted to table the request. Commissioner Bill Loomis, who raised concerns over the density of the project and its compatibility with planned development in the city, abstained from voting. Commissioner David Rees was absent." Read more here.... County Planning Commission Tables Housing Request | |
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Sunnyside Retirement Community Makes Plans For Newly Acquired Land |
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 Back in 2015, Lakeview decided to sell off as much as 75 acres of their land, moving from a 36 hole golf course to a 27 hole golf course. Many (myself included) speculated that this land would be purchased by a developer or builder as the land is located in the midst of many upper end single family home neighborhoods. We were all wrong. Fifty acres (as shown above) were sold by Lakeview to Sunnyside Retirement Community in January 2017, for $1.2M. So, it seems, you will not see new roads going in and houses built in that area in the near future. But now we know a bit more what Sunnyside is planning for this newly acquired land. Sunnyside plans to add 28 acres of the newly acquired land to their master plan, to include:
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How should land in Harrisonburg be used in the future? |
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 There's a map for that, it seems! Check out the Draft Comprehensive Plan (chapters) for the City of Harrisonburg where you'll find all sorts of interesting maps, including:
The Land Use Guide (draft for inclusion in the 2019 comprehensive plan is shown above) recommends future land uses, but is not regulatory. That is to say that if a piece of undeveloped land is zoned for residential use, but is shown in a "Mixed Use" area in the Land Use Guide map, then staff would likely look favorably upon a future request for rezoning to a mixed use designation. Check out all of the draft chapters of the Comprehensive Plan here. | |
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High Level Overview of Albert Long Park |
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 click here for a larger version of this image While you might not know it from driving by on Route 33 East, construction is steadily moving along on Albert Long Park, located on the North side of Route 33 just before Indian Trail Road / Cross Keys Road when heading away from Harrisonburg. I don't have any specific updates on the park plans or timeline other than having noticed (from Indian Trail Road) that the site work and development of the park is progressing nicely. Below is the Master Plan for the park as approved in 2014.  click here to download the Master Plan as a PDF | |
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The mid sized homes that ARE being built |
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 Last week I spent some time discussing the market need that I perceive for mid sized detached homes in or near the City of Harrisonburg. I went further, to suggest that these might be 1750 - 2150 SF homes for less than $300K. Thinking further about it over the weekend, I think it is important to note that there are actually SOME homes being built that meet these criteria. Below are the three homes that sold with these specs thus far in 2017....  1240 Cottage Lane (just outside Harrisonburg) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 2336 SF / $275,230  246 Dylan Circle (Bridgewater) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 1818 SF / $247,000 [no photo available] 395 Acme Company Street (Broadway) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 2257 SF / $277,000 And if we relax the criteria a bit, down to 1600 SF, we pick up a few more....  365 Coyote Run (Broadway) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1600 SF / $$222,500  2587 Calico Drive (Broadway) 3 BR / 2.5 BA / 1639 SF / 5 Acres / $249,100  190 Grouse Drive (Massanutten) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1700 SF / $287,500 So, clearly, none in Harrisonburg proper, and most quite a ways from Harrisonburg -- and most importantly, VERY FEW homes at all that are being built and sold in this price range (under $300K) with these specs (1600+ or 1750+ SF). Switching, then, to what is currently available -- we find three options under $300K with 1750+ SF for buyers currently in the market....  265 Dylan Circle (Bridgewater) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 1808 SF / $246,900  4150 Tanners Court (just outside Harrisonburg) 3 BR / 2 BA / 1830 SF / $279,900  1250 Cottage Lane (just outside Harrisonburg) 4 BR / 2.5 BA / 2266 SF / $299,400 So, indeed, extremely limited options for new homes under $300K with 1750+ square feet in or near Harrisonburg. This brings me back to my same conclusions as I mentioned last week, and I'll mention again here....
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What is being developed at the corner of Stone Spring Road and Spotswood Trail? |
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 download a larger version of this photo here Just driving by, you might not realize the extent of the mass grading that is currently underway on the corner of Stone Spring Road and Spotswood Trail. The photo above should put it into perspective. This is a LOT of land that is being leveled and prepared for development. But for what, you might ask? A good chunk of it will be used for apartments, it seems -- and the balance for future commercial development. Below is my understanding of the intended use of the space.... download a larger version of this photo here My understanding of this intended usage of this land is based on the Preston Lake master plan as shown below, updated as of December 2016.... The area that is currently being graded will include the area shown below surrounded by a dashed line. This will include 168 apartments in 12 buildings, as well as a clubhouse and pool. Part of the land being graded in the aerial photo at the top of this post is intended to be used for future commercial development. So, who owns all of this land?
As it pertains to the 168 apartments.... "State Corporation Commission records list William Park of Charlottesville as the registered agent for Mid Town Square. Park is co-owner of Park Properties Management and president of Pinnacle Construction & Development Corp., which builds the apartments."The article went further to identify other complexes in this region that are owned and managed by Park's companies.... "Park's companies are behind two complexes in the area.Digging even further into my archives, I am finding that in the original packet for the proposed approval of the updated Preston Lake master plan (now approved) the engineer for the Preston Lake developer indicated that the apartment buildings are intended to be 2-stories in height. There are also quite a few additional details in that development packet as it pertains to proffers made by the developer when this updated master plan was approved. | |
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Make your voice heard in the updated Comprehensive Plan for the City of Harrisonburg |
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 The City of Harrisonburg is in the midst of updating the Comprehensive Plan for the City. As per the City.... The Comprehensive Plan presents a vision of Harrisonburg's future. It identifies steps to move toward that vision by providing information about current conditions, long-term goals and objectives, and recommended implementation strategies. As described in the Code of Virginia, the Comprehensive Plan is general in nature. Harrisonburg's Plan addresses a wide range of issues including but not limited to: land use, housing, education, transportation, recreation, the preservation of historic and natural resources, and economic development. The plan serves as a long-term guide for the community, and it helps City leaders with setting policies and decision-making. So, basically, what do you want the City of Harrisonburg to be in 10 or 20 years? Discussions taking place and decisions being made right now will affect that future, and you have the opportunity to be a part of the conversation! Better yet -- there are several Public Workshops coming up that will allow you to chime in on topics near and dear to your heart.... Education; Arts, Culture, and Historic Resources; and Community Engagement & CollaborationSo, mark your calendars, and get involved in the discussions and decisions to help shape the future our our great City! Also of note.... Lots of Q&A's about the Comprehensive Plan update can be found here. General information about the Comprehensive Plan update can be found here. | |
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New Starbucks location (with drive thru) coming to Port Republic Road, 1250 feet from existing Starbucks |
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 Click here for a larger version of the map shown above. As reported in this past Saturday's Daily News Record -- a new Starbucks location will be constructed at the Intersection of Port Republic Road and Hunters Road, on a currently vacant lot. A variety of additional details and thoughts....
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New Developments Coming Soon? |
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 Three parcels of development land (see below) are now under contract. Perhaps we'll be seeing some new developments taking shape in and around Harrisonburg soon?  2112 SUNNY SLOPE LN, ROCKINGHAM, VA - 16.91 ACRES - $1,039,000 This nearly 18 acre tract of land is just outside the City of Harrisonburg and offers an opportunity to develop for residential and/or commercial use, subject to rezoning. The property is located on Route 42 with about 450 feet of road frontage near WalMart and beside Harrisonburg Construction. There are three parcels, two currently zoned A2 and one zoned R2. Water & Sewer is available. The property includes a 3,000 sf ranch style residence with a basement and was built in 1960. UNDER CONTRACT SINCE 3/2/2017.  9447 MCGAHEYSVILLE RD, MCGAHEYSVILLE, VA - 21.76 ACRES - $1,250,000 Temporary Price Cut for an Early April Closing! Extraordinary Opportunity! A fully approved Residential Subdivision in McGaheysville and ready to be developed. The site is approved for 84 units (6 single family & 39 duplex lots). It can be constructed in Phases. Full views of Massanutten and the Blue Ridge Mountains. The subdivision includes a roundabout, internal loop road for walking, and riding, a shared access pond/park area. County water & sewer. UNDER CONTRACT SINCE 7/5/2017.  TBD BOYERS ROAD, ROCKINGHAM, VA - 26.27 ACRES - $2,365,000 Prime Development Land. 26 + Acres Zoned R3 on the east side of Harrisonburg on Boyers Road across from Sentara RMH Hospital. Property borders the Massanetta Springs Camp & Conference center property on the east and also has a pond that has water in it most of the year. Could be a great duplex or townhouse development. There is a small barn on the property. UNDER CONTRACT SINCE 9/11/2017. | |
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Harrisonburg could never have enough student housing! |
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 OK, OK, that's probably not true -- Harrisonburg probably does not have an infinite need for student housing. Just consider my title, then, to be an intro to all of the alternative perspectives that have been shared with me since I wrote these two posts.... Does Harrisonburg need more Off Campus Student Housing? Does New College Student Housing Increase the Demands on Local Elementary Schools? OK -- here goes -- all the reasons I might be wrong, and all of this new student housing might be OK, or even a good thing.... 1. JMU is growing! All of this student housing is necessary -- JMU is continuing to grow, and they are not building on campus fast enough for their growth, so the private sector must build and rent housing to students in order to meet that growing demand. 2. Denying growth just pushes it elsewhere. If the City decided to stop permitting new student housing communities to be built, that would just push developers to build them in the County, or push students to live in otherwise owner occupied neighborhoods. 3. This is an affordable way to get workforce housing. There isn't much truly affordable rental housing being built -- and older student housing complexes being effectively turned into workforce housing by virtue of students being attracted to new student housing communities is not necessarily a bad thing. It may be the most affordable way to create affordable or workforce housing. 4. Bring on the wrecking ball. If even more student housing is built, the rental rates will fall even lower on the oldest complexes, devaluing those properties to the point where it will make sense to just knock them down and build new housing -- thus, eliminating the older, outdated housing. 5. How much regulation do you want "the government" to do? If the government (planning commission, city council, staff) should start making judgement calls about how much student housing is too much student -- and thus regulating what landowners (and student housing developers) can and cannot do -- should they also start governing other segments of the private sector? Should they regulate how many hair salons exist? How many banks are permitted to operate? How many restaurants can open? How many Realtors can sell homes? :) OK -- again -- I don't necessarily agree with all of the perspectives above, but I believe it is important to consider these counterpoints when thinking about how our community should be planning for the future as it pertains to student housing, land use, property taxes, schools, etc. And, as I mentioned to a reader in response to their comments.... I don't know if new student housing projects should or should not be denied - but I think the local community needs to fully understand the impact of continuing to approve more student housing communities. If older student housing communities become workforce housing, great, no problem -- but let's realize that this is the result of approving new student housing communities, and make sure that infrastructure (schools, for example) are in place for the new workforce housing that we have indirectly created. | |
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Does New College Student Housing Increase the Demands on Local Elementary Schools? |
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 Traditional logic would say no -- the construction of new college student housing in Harrisonburg won't increase the load on elementary schools, as most college students do not have elementary school aged children.... Going a step further, I would guess that some local government staff and elected officials MIGHT (?) use this traditional logic when thinking about whether to approve rezonings, or other approvals, for new student housing to be built in the Harrisonburg area. But wait - what if the following sequence happens (thanks Deb, with some revisions)....
I think we have seen this happen over the past 20 years in Harrisonburg, in cycles, as large quantities of student housing is built in waves. And think about it, from the other direction, for a moment -- we all know that the local elementary school population is growing -- but why, and where? It's not as if local developers and builders are out building an extraordinary number of townhomes or starter homes for young families, causing an influx of new elementary school students. So -- if the elementary school population is rising, and it's not because of an increase in the stock of owner occupied real estate in Harrisonburg, then.... 1. Perhaps this elementary (or K-12, really) school enrollment growth is, contrary to what we'd otherwise believe, a direct result of an increase in college student housing. 2. Perhaps we need to think about the fiscal impact of educating more elementary (and then middle and high) school students when we think about approving yet another student housing complex. 3. Perhaps, if building new student housing when we might not really need it, leads to increased demands on our local K-12 schools, then maybe we need to pay more attention to whether that student housing is needed. Just some thoughts to ponder as we think about and plan for the future here in the City of Harrisonburg -- and Rockingham County. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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