Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
Buying
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Another Strategy For Preparing To Sell While Waiting To Buy |
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 As described yesterday, sometimes you might have to think about whether you are willing to move twice. If you'd really rather not move twice -- but you need to sell in order to buy -- and it will be harder to find something to buy than it will be to sell -- so you don't want to list your current home for sale until your future home appears... Then maybe, just maybe, we need to think about timing and sequencing a bit differently. Instead of this...
Maybe it needs to be this...
By changing around the sequence (preparing and photographing your current home ahead of time) we will be ready to list your home almost *instantly* when a home comes on the market that you are excited to pursue. So -- give it some thought -- would re-ordering the steps as described above make sense for your situation? Would it allow you to more quickly move towards a successful transition from one house to the next? | |
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Are You Willing To Move Twice? |
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 Anecdotally, the $250K - $300K market is HOT right now. If you're looking to buy a home between $250K and $300K expect to have LOTS of competition from other buyers. Houses that are prepared well, priced well and marketed well, are going under contract quickly -- sometimes with multiple offers. Which then (eventually) leads us to the question at hand -- are you willing to move twice? If you're buying a home between $250K and $300K, there is a decent chance that you own your current home, and that you'll need to sell it in order to buy the next house. And given that there are so few options for you to buy right now, you probably haven't listed your current home for sale yet -- because you're waiting until you see something that you want to buy. But when the home you want to buy comes on the market, and you look at it on the first day and decide you are ready to make an offer - I'm going to tell you that we probably won't be successful in securing a contract to buy your new home unless you have your current house under contract. So then we'll speedily get your house on the market. But by the time it is on the market, or by the time it is under contract, the chances are that the house you wanted to buy will then be under contract to another buyer. Ugh. So -- what is someone in this situation to do? Option 1 - Do what is described above, and hope you get lucky. Wait to list your home until you see something you really want to buy. Hope that nobody else wants to buy it, somehow. List your home. Get a contract in place on your home. Make an offer on the house you want to buy. But perhaps you'll try Option 1 a few times and fail - losing the house to another buyer, which leaves you with two other options... Option 2 - Secure financing to buy a new home before having sold your current home. This way you can commit to buying the new house before having a contract on your current home. That isn't a possibility for all buyers, so you may also have to consider... Option 3 - Be willing to move twice. List your home for sale, when you get an offer, ask for a longer than normal closing timeline - perhaps 75 days instead of 45 - 60 days. Then, hope that the house of your dream comes up for sale in the subsequent 30 days so that you can contract to buy the new home and close on them simultaneously - but be ready, willing and able to move twice if you need to do so. You may, with this option, have to move out of the home that you own - because you sold it - before you have found and secured a contract on the new home you'll be buying. This might mean moving in with family, and it might mean renting before buying the next home. In the end, given how quickly the market is moving, you may have to decide if you are willing to move twice in order to make a transition to your next home. | |
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Home Buyers Were Busy In March 2019 |
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 I'll publish my full monthly market report later this week, but wow, home buyers were busy in March! After the usual slow start to the year with 84 contracts in January and 92 in February, things started to pop in March -- with a sharp uptick to 134 contracts. For some context: JANUARY: This Year = 84 contracts Last Year = 85 contracts FEBRUARY: This Year = 92 contracts Last Year = 90 contracts MARCH: This Year = 134 contracts Last Year = 128 contracts So -- thus far it seems that this may be another robust year of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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How To Be The First To Know About New Listings |
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 The market is moving QUICKLY -- homes are often going under contract in a matter of days instead of weeks -- so it is essential that you know about new listings immediately when they hit the market. Most of my clients use NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com to keep track of new properties coming on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. You can quickly and easily scroll through the most recent residential listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, view the pertinent details, all of the photographs of the home, an area map, and then quickly and easily share that new listing with a friend, your spouse, your Realtor, etc. You can also sign up to receive an email alert every time there is a new listing....  Check it out, at NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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There Are PLENTY Of Buyers In Our Local Market, Ready To Buy |
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 On one of my recent listings we received three offers within the first week. On another, we -- again -- received three offers within the first week. And on a third, we received seven (!!!) offers within the first two days. These 13 buyers were all ready, willing and able buyers - anxious to buy a home. They came to see the listings in the first day or two (or three) that they were on the market. Most of them had already talked to a bank or mortgage company to become prequalified. They made serious, reasonable offers - some with escalation clauses. And yet -- only three of the 13 would-be buyers were successful at securing a contract to buy one of these homes. My main conclusion - there are PLENTY of buyers, ready to act. I suspect we will continue to see homes go under contract quickly (often with more than one offer) when they are prepared well, priced well and marketed well. To the other 10 buyers -- I only wish my clients had duplicates of their homes to sell to you -- and I feel for your plight. Several of these would-be buyers had already made another offer on another house in the recent past and missed out on that one as well. | |
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Your Ability To Buy Your Dream Home May Have More To Do With Others Than Yourself |
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 Imagine that you *finally* find your dream home this Spring or Summer. I hope you do! But then, imagine that, despite your best efforts, you are not able to buy it - you do everything you can, but factors outside your control limit your ability to make that dream home YOUR home...
As you can see, there are any number of reasons why your ability to buy your dream home might have more to do with others than yourself. Sort of reminds me of the Serenity Prayer that my parents had hanging on the kitchen wall when I was growing up... God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference. I know, I know, it's not always possible to achieve serenity in the current strong seller's market -- but just keep in mind that there could be some factors that affect your ability to buy your dream home that - again - have more to do with others than yourself. | |
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A Strong Hand (Offer) Does Not Always Win |
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 I don't play poker regularly - though I have played a few times over the years. Whenever I do, I can become caught up in my excitement to see a straight, a flush, or full house in my hand. Wow! This pot is mine! I am bound to win this time! And often, that might happen with a strong hand in poker -- but not always. Sometimes, another player will have an even stronger hand, and I'll lose despite my strong hand. Here are the rating of poker hands, in increasing strength...
And here are some generic types of offers that might exist on a house, in increasing strength, generally speaking...
That order isn't actually always 100% accurate - it can depend on the property, the seller, etc. But the point should be clear... Even if you make a full price offer, with what would be considered to be normal contingencies (financing, appraisal, inspection) you could still lose in negotiations in several different ways. So -- play your strongest hand, but always know that there could be a stronger hand out there! | |
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Would Be $500K+ Home Sellers in the City Should REALLY Have Their Homes On The Market NOW! |
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 OK -- given a tiny data set (7 home sales) this **could** be a data anomaly. But I think it's still worth noting... Last year, of all of the (seven) buyers who contracted to buy homes over $500,000 in the City of Harrisonburg -- they all did so between February 1 and June 30. Maybe a lot of these buyers have kids and were looking to transition homes during the summer? Of note -- since that last sale (that went under contract in June 2018) there have not been any additional buyers who have contracted to buy homes over $500K. Again -- this is a rather small portion of the market -- but it seems that high end buyers in the City are mostly (almost all!?) contracting on their homes exclusively during the Spring and Summer. | |
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Assigning Blame for the Slow Winter Housing Market |
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 So -- who's to blame for the slow real estate market in the Winter? This year? And every year? Ever!? It's the Buyers!!!! Sellers would list their homes for sale if buyers would be willing to buy in the Winter months -- but buyer activity just slows to an absolute crawl during the Winter months, and that is why home sellers just don't find it to be worth their time to list their homes for sale. It's ALL the buyers' fault! It's the Sellers!!!! Buyers would be jumping out of their socks to buy homes during the Winter months if sellers would just go ahead and put them on the market, already!? The depressingly low inventory numbers of the Winter months limits buyers from showing up to the party in any meaningful way. It's ALL the sellers' fault! Hmmm... Maybe we'll never solve this chicken and egg conundrum -- let's just be glad it's Springtime now? Spring officially started last week and we're starting to see listings coming onto the market with greater frequency. Sellers -- Great news, the buyers finally broke free from their winter doldrums and are ready to buy! Buyers -- Great news, the sellers finally broke free from their winter doldrums and are ready to sell! ;-) Happy Tuesday, folks. It's Spring -- and buying and selling activity is starting to speed up! | |
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Unique Properties Either Sell Vry Qwkly Or Verrrrrrry Sloooowwwwly |
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 Unique properties can sell practically overnight -- or can languish on for months and even years. What makes the difference? Whether the buyer or the seller is the needle in the proverbial haystack. Sometimes, the needle is the seller. Practically everyone wants a house that is "this type of house" in "this type of location" on "this size of a lot" with "these types of finishes" -- wow -- a house doesn't come along like this very often. It will probably have lots of showings in the first week and may be under contract within the first few days. ...or... Sometimes, the needle is the buyer. I'm sure there must be some buyer out there, somewhere, hopefully, that wants this unique layout combined with a unique location combined with a unique design and style -- right? There must be a buyer who could live with this unusual combination of all of these features? Right? So -- if you have a super unique property, and you're getting ready to sell it -- give some thought to whether it is "like no other" because every time a similar house is available a buyer buys it and lives there forever -- or because there has never really ever been any buyer demand for this type of property and thus not many of them exist. Oh, right, and then price comes into play... If you have a highly unique, and highly desirable property -- you'll likely sell it for a bit more than you would have hoped. But if you have a highly unique, and hopefully, possibly desirable-to-atleast-one-buyer property -- you'll likely sell it for a bit less than you would have hoped. | |
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The Two Things We Might Mean By Affordable Housing |
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 "We need more affordable housing in our area." I hear it regularly, and perhaps you do as well. But I think it's worth pointing out that when people say this they might mean two very different things... When talking within the context of folks buying homes -- "affordable housing" often means homes in a price range that makes them affordable for first time buyers in our market. That could mean "under $150K" for some folks, or even "under $200K" in some situations. But wait -- is a home that can be purchased for $145K (for example) an affordable housing option for everybody living in our community? Nope! Not at all. There are plenty of folks who can't afford the accompanying monthly payment, or don't have a downpayment, or don't have money for closing costs, or who wouldn't have savings if a home repair became necessary in the first year or two of homeownership. So, it seems there is another thing we might mean when we say we need "affordable housing" in our community - and that would be rental properties with a low enough monthly rental rate to be feasible for low income earners in our area to still have decent housing options. I think it is important for elected officials and other City and County staff to be thinking about how decisions that are made and policies that are set can encourage the development of affordable housing - but we'll need to make sure we're all on the same page about what kind of affordable housing we're encouraging - and perhaps they need to be two completely separate priorities. Encouraging the development of affordable housing for renters and affordable housing for buyers -- for lack of any better way to express it. Anyone have other thoughts on how to best describe or name these types of housing and the need for them in our community? | |
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What To Do When Recent Comparable Sales Prices, Tax Assessments, Zestimates and Competing List Prices Vary SIGNIFICANTLY |
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 Which one of the values above is the "market value" of the imaginary home in question? The answer is -- the GREEN bar -- a home's value is most often determined by how much other buyers have recently paid for similar properties. A would-be buyer might WANT the home's value to be the "tax assessed value" -- but that might be quite a bit lower than the recent sales prices -- so a home's tax assessed value is not necessarily the home's market value. A would-be seller might WANT the home's value to be the "Zestimate" from Zillow -- but that might (often, usually) vary quite a bit from a home's market value -- so a home's Zestimate is not necessarily the home's market value. A would-be seller might REALLY WANT the home's value to be the same as the list price on competing properties currently for sale -- but those listings might sit on the market forever with unreasonably high list prices -- so the list price of competing listings is not necessarily the home's market value. Now, this scenario would be much easier...  As you can see here, there isn't too much of a difference between the different values -- so it matters a bit less which of the value perspectives we use when estimating a likely sales price and planning for a potential list price. But in the case where there is quite a bit of separation in these different value perspectives -- stay focused on what other buyers have recently paid for similar properties -- this alone is your best guide as to what you can/should expect the next buyer to be willing to pay for your house. | |
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I Know You Know This, But These are RECORD Low Inventory Levels |
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 I looked back further, and further, and further, and could not find ANY time in the past 10 years when there have been fewer houses listed for sale than there are RIGHT NOW! And yet, despite the fact that we keep starting off each year with FEWER homes for sale...  ...somehow buyers are able to buy pretty much the same number of homes for each of the past three years:
What does this mean? How can it be? Stop making my/your head hurt!? Well, basically, the inventory level DOES and DOESN'T matter. If 1,000 homes are listed for sale each month in 2019 and 1,000 go under contract and 1,000 sell -- we would have an absolutely outlandish year of sales (12,000 home sales) but inventory would have started and finished at 269 homes for sale. So -- buyers certainly have fewer choices at any given moment, but as more and more listings come on the market this Spring, they are likely to have more and more choices, though they will be competing against lots of other buyers and the properties are likely to go under contract quickly. | |
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Needing vs Wanting A Home Sale Contingency |
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 If you're looking to buy a house this Spring or Summer -- but -- you own your current home -- this morning's ramblings are for you... Selling (for some houses, in some price ranges, in some locations) can seem like a breeze these days -- inventory is low, buyer interest is high, homes are going under contract quickly -- all good news for sellers. And buying (for some houses, in some price ranges, in some locations) can be quite difficult these days -- inventory is low, interest from competing buyers is high, homes you might want to buy are going under contract quickly -- all less than exciting news for buyers. And when you wrap those two realities together -- buying and selling in the current market -- things can get tricky. Because it can be hard to find something to buy, many would-be seller-buyers aren't listing their home yet despite their desire to make a move. After all, they don't want to find someone to buy their home when they don't have somewhere to go. But then, the perfect house comes on the market! So, now what!? Do we quickly (quickly!!) list your home for sale and try to secure a buyer in time to make an offer on your dream house that is contingent on the settlement on the sale of your current home that is under contract? Hoping some other eager buyer has not already secured a contract on your dream house by the time we have your current house under contract? OR -- do we make an offer on your dream home, contingent on the sale of your current home, even though your current home is either not yet on the market or not yet under contract? (Hint, hint - the seller of your dream home probably won't be be interested in this proposal.) OR -- do we make an offer on your dream home WITHOUT a home sale contingency. That was a lot of build up to get here -- but this is the central item you may want to think about as you consider a sale and purchase this Spring or Summer. First - Do you NEED a home sale contingency... This can be pretty quickly determined in a conversation with a lender. Let me know if you need some recommendations of who to call for your next mortgage. They will essentially be asking you questions about your income, recurring monthly debt (house, car, student loans, etc.), and assets (cash) on hand. They'll be trying to determine whether your income (and offsetting expenses) qualify you to get a mortgage to purchase the new home while still owning the current home. Again - this is rather cut and dry from a lender's perspective, so if you're thinking (even a little bit) about whether you could / should / would buy without having first sold, then start with a conversation with your lender. If they can qualify you for a mortgage to purchase your dream home without having first sold your existing home, you will then move on to the next question... Second - Do you WANT a home sale contingency... Perhaps you own a $250K house and you're thinking about buying a $350K house. And perhaps your lender says it is no problem at all - they'll give you a mortgage to buy the $350K house even if you still own the $250K house. And perhaps you are quite certain we'll be able to speedily sell the $250K house. But yet, still, you might decide that you don't WANT a home sale contingency. Maybe you don't want the risk associated with having to pay both mortgage payments until the $250K house sells. Perhaps you don't like the loan terms that will be required on the $350K purchase without having freed up some equity from the $250K sale. Whatever the reason, there may in fact be a reason why you WANT a home sale contingency. Alright - the ramblings will stop for now. As you may have figured out if you made it this far -- selling and buying at the same-ish time can be relatively complex -- and we can't always figure it all out by thinking through a formula or checklist. As such -- if you're thinking about selling and buying this summer, let me know if you'd like to chat more about all of these topics, in person, as it relates to your own particular scenario. | |
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Home Sales Slow In February But Contract Activity Increasing |
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 Happy Spring! Yesterday's warm sunny afternoon was a welcome reprieve from our recent frigid temperatures - and it looks like we'll have continued warm-ish (or at least not frozen) days this week as well. And how about that local real estate market? Is it heating up as well? Breaking out of the winter doldrums? Well, maybe not quite - though technically this report only covers real estate activity through the end of February, so maybe we'll have to wait one more month for some more exciting news. But buckle up, and let's flip through the latest local real estate news to catch up on where things have been and where we're likely headed. Oh - but two quick notes, first:
And now, here we go...  As seen above...
 OK - lots going on above - this is where I break things down between detached homes (green) and attached homes (orange) -- where "attached" homes are townhouses, duplexes and condos.
 The red line above shows the sales trajectory for 2019 -- January sales (64) were right in the middle of the pack as January goes -- but February sales (63) were much slower (lower) than last year (81) though not too far off of the prior two years (68, 69). So - where in the world do we go from here? Do we see a relatively disappointing March with only 80 home sales (lowest since prior to 2016) or do things bounce back up to 95 or 100 home sales? Time will tell - but thus far the market performance has not been overwhelming in 2019 when it comes to the number of homes that are selling.  Now, looking beyond the month-to-month trends -- this graph (above) looks at a rolling 12 month timeframe to even out some of the ebbs and flows of market activity. The top (green) line shows that median sales prices have been relatively steady for the past six months -- hovering between $210K and $213K. The bottom (orange) line shows that the annual pace of home sales has actually been slowing in recent months. If home sales keep slowing down, eventually that could have an impact on sales prices, but for now they are holding steady. It is also certainly possible that the slowdown in home sales has more to do with a lack of available inventory than it does with any decrease in buyer interest.  Here (above) is another pretty graph to show the increasing home values in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past few years. Though - curb the boundless enthusiasm for a moment - the annual increase was only 2% in 2018, down from 5%, 7% and 5% the prior three years. So -- 2019 will be a telling year -- will values hold steady, or increase slightly, or decline slightly? Stay tuned -- it's early yet.  And this (above) might be the missing piece of the puzzle. Buyer activity (blue line) is somehow staying steady-ish (except dipping a bit over the past few months) despite the quickly falling inventory levels (green line) over the past three (four!) years. I've said it recently but I'll say it again - it can be a fun time to be a seller right now - but it's not so fun to be a buyer. You'll be choosing from an ever smaller number of available properties, and potentially competing with ever more buyers.  Here's one graph of optimism as it relates to the next few months -- contract activity is on the rise with 92 contracts signed in February 2019, up from 90 last February and 87 the February before that. So - we will likely see a solid month of sales activity in March, and hopefully in April if we have another strong month of contracts in March. But, just to prepare you pretty early here -- I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that we'll see a month with 171 contracts like we saw last May.  And here is a visualization of those inventory woes I was describing earlier. The number of homes for sale has been creeping ever lower, hitting yet another new low at the end of February with only 255 homes for sale. Hopefully, maybe, possibly, we'll see that start to drift upwards as we get into March, April and May??  If buyers have anything (anything!?) to be glad about -- it's that their mortgage rate will likely be lower now than it would have been a few months ago. After average rates drifted all the way up to 4.86% -- and seemed to be ready to get back to 5% -- they started floating back down to their current average of 4.35%. If buyer activity increases over the next few months, they'll be enjoying more affordable financing of their home purchase. OK - admittedly - that was a lot. Kudos to any of you who made it all the way to the bottom of this commentary. Many trends stay relatively similar from month to month but it's always good to take a fresh look to give us a context to help make informed real estate decisions moving forward. If you're thinking of buying or selling soon... SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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If Only We Had Two Or Three Of These Houses! |
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 Sometimes, these days, sellers are seeing more than one offer coming in at the same time on their home. Not always, mind you, just sometimes. All people in Harrisonburg are nice. OK, well, maybe not all, but most of them seem to be. As such, sometimes two super nice, awesome, wonderful people make offers on the same house -- and sadly, only one of them can buy it! Sometimes a buyer tries to set their offer apart (above?) other offers by including a personal, heartfelt letter about why they LOVE the seller's home and how they will live happily ever after in it. These are often meaningful, helpful, touching and effective. But shoot - sometimes there are two awesome buyers who wrote these emotion evoking letters, and again, only one of them gets the house. It stinks to be that second (or third) buyer - as it's often quite the letdown for the contemplated home purchase to not have worked out. It's a bit easier as a seller -- you're selling your house to buyer #1, even if buyer #2 is crying in the corner -- but it's still not ideal. Sometimes a seller even knows buyer #2 or buyer #3 and feels terrible about not being able to sell them the house as well, but... Anyhow -- it's a good problem for a seller to have -- multiple buyers vying to buy their house. But it's just simply no fun at all for buyers. I feel for them - whether I'm working with them as my clients, or if I am representing the seller who effectively had to reject them. Stay strong, buyers! Hopefully some new, exciting listings will be on the market soon to ease the pain of missing out on the house you had been convinced you would be buying! | |
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How To Think About Home Inspection Negotiations |
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 A buyer agrees to pay a price for a house based on what they know about the house at that time. The home inspection process allows them to learn more about the house to confirm that it is the house that they thought. But sometimes, they discover problems with the house that they'd like the seller to address....
So, how do these home inspection negotiations usually proceed? The short (and vague) answer is -- well, it depends on the terms of your contract. But, overall, here is how the inspection process typically flows....  As you can see above, after a buyer requests repairs (based on the home inspection) the seller can choose to make some, all or none of the requested repairs. The transaction (and negotiations) can then go in a few different directions based on that response. Learn more about the home buying process at....  | |
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When A Realtor Represents a Home Buyer Do They Just Unlock Doors? |
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 It's a bit more involved than that -- we unlock doors AND turn on lights! :-) Just kidding, of course. There's more to representing a buyer than just unlocking doors and turning on lights -- so before you call the listing agent to see a home listed for sale, you should understand a bit more about buyer representation.
In representing you in your home purchase, your buyer's agent would be performing tasks such as:
So -- you can call the listing agent (who is contractually bound to represent the seller's best interests) or you can hire a Realtor to represent YOUR best interests as the buyer. Clearly, I recommend the second option. Beyond buyer representation, there is a lot more to know about and think about regarding the home purchasing process. Read more at.... | |
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Three Main Obstacles Between Contract and Closing |
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 While every home sale is different -- with unique contingencies based on the needs and situations of the buyer and seller -- there are three main hurdles that most buyers and the houses they are purchasing must clear to make it to closing. So -- where is your contract in this process? Have you cleared 1, 2 or 3 of the hurdles, thus far? There will be plenty of other details to attend to, but these are the three main areas of focus. Evaluating the property condition, the property value, and the buyer's finances.... INSPECTION - This is an evaluation, by a home inspector, of the condition of the house. Clearing this hurdle typically involves requesting that the seller make some repairs to the house (or negotiate further on price) based on new information about the property condition discovered during the inspection process. APPRAISAL - This is an evaluation, by an appraiser hired by the purchaser's lender, of the value of the house. If the property appraises for the contract price (or higher), all is well -- otherwise, the buyer and seller may need to renegotiate the contract price based on the appraised value. LOAN APPROVAL - This is an evaluation, by a lender (and their underwriters) of the purchaser's financial situation. The lender must confirm that the buyer has the income to support the mortgage payment required for purchasing the home. Again - there are many other smaller hurdles (for example, a termite inspection) and larger hurdles (for example, a home sale contingency) that may need to be cleared in your purchase (or sale) of a home -- but these three main hurdles (inspection, appraisal, loan approval) are the three main mileposts during the contract-to-closing process that we'll be focused during the transaction. BUT WAIT -- THERE'S MORE.... Would you rather have three main hurdles to clear, or six? Let's imagine that you receive two offers on your house, which is listed for $250K....
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Are Home Sellers Waiting For Warmer Weather? |
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 OK, I know it's not Spring yet, but it's March! We're supposed to start seeing many more new listings coming on the market - finally - for all of the buyers who have been patiently waiting for more inventory from which to choose. But, it's just not happening yet this year. Or at least not at scale. Maybe it's the snow (despite a lack of accumulation) or maybe the frigid temperatures (looks like a cold week ahead) but whatever the cause, we're seeing much lower early March inventory levels as compared to the past few years. So, maybe mid-March? Maybe April? When will we finally see an increase in listing inventory? It hasn't happened yet! Sellers who are thinking of selling in April - maybe March is your month? Get ahead of the game -- avoid the competition! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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