Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
Buying
| Older Posts |
 |
 |
More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
|
 Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market...  [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper...  [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find...  ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months...  As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement...  We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future...  Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap...  Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory...  The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find...  The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
 |
 |
|
|
It Might Be Hard To Find A Home To Buy In The City of Harrisonburg |
|
 The number of homes for sale in the City of Harrisonburg keeps dropping. That's not to say that homes aren't selling -- a total of 390 homes have sold in the City of Harrisonburg during the first 353 days of the year -- putting us at a pace of around 34 home sales per month. But the number of homes available to buyers continues to decline -- now down to only 42 homes for sale! Here's a bit longer of a context....
And now -- only 42 homes for sale! If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg it might be difficult to find a home that is a perfect fit or you given a very limited supply of homes for sale. And when a home does come on the market that works for you, it is likely to sell quickly. | |
|
|
|
|
Last Chance To Build A New Home at Heritage Estates |
|
 If you want to build a home at Heritage Estates -- an active adult community in Harrisonburg, Virginia with homes featuring French Country architecture -- this is basically your last chance to do so! There has been a flurry of buyer activity in the neighborhood and there is now only ONE remaining home site (Lot 18) on which you can build a home.  The developer is also building a model home (rendering above) on Lot 30 (details in a PDF here) -- so that is an option as well, though it is framed in and under roof, so you don't have quite as much flexibility as to what you might build. Find our more about Heritage Estates here and email me if you have further interest or questions. | |
|
|
|
|
When Buying A Home, Keep In Mind That School Districts Can Change |
|
 In the news lately...
There are a few more possible changes in Rockingham County, but the above is a sampling of possible changes. Read about the plans for change in Rockingham County Public Schools here. All of this is to say that if you are buying a home, and one of the critical factors is whether it is in school district X or school district Y, then we'll likely want to check to see if you are in an area that might be affected by changes that are currently being discussed -- AND -- you should know that further changes in school districts could take place before your sweet little Johnny (currently 2 months old) is old enough to go to high school. As a random side note, the Rockingham County school district map (shown above) downloadable here does not appear to have chnaged in the past nine years! So, I suppose change had to happen eventually... | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019 |
|
 Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data...  As shown above...
Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes...  As shown above...
It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County...  As shown above...
But in the County...  As shown above...
And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity...  I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December.  When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016.  When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data.  Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom.  Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated.  While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year.  Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction??  Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties!  If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. | |
|
|
|
|
Home Buyers and Sellers Often Have Very Different Perspectives When Negotiating Repairs After A Home Inspection |
|
 While not always the case, a general rule of thumb is that... On home inspection repairs...
Inspector: Several roof shingles are missing, and the roof is past its life expectancy. Seller: Replace the shingles. Buyer: Replace the roof. Inspector: The air handler coils are dirty and the heat pump is reeaaallly old. Seller: Clean and service the heat pump and air handler. Buyer: Replace them both! These are a few extreme examples to start to show the differences in perspectives on repairs. Again, the important thing here is to recognize that a buyer and seller look at home inspection reports differently. A seller typically wants to minimize their repair costs while keeping the home sale on track. A buyer wants to make sure that any previously unknown property condition issues are addressed in a manner that is likely to prevent further near term maintenance needs in those areas. So, what is a buyer to do? A few thoughts....
| |
|
|
|
|
How To Remove Cigarette Smoke Odors From A House |
|
 I have shown a few houses lately to buyers where we couldn't help but notice a lingering cigarette smoke odor in the home. That smell was not the only factor that kept these buyers from making an offer on these houses -- but it certainly was a part of the discussion and decision. So how in the world do you get a pervasive cigarette smoke smell out of a house? I'm not an expert, but my understanding is that you may need to consider some or all of these techniques:
Even if you take all of those (not inexpensive) steps above, you may still have some lingering smells -- and if you do, you probably shouldn't be entirely surprised. You might then consider using an ozone generator which can help eliminate odors. If you're going this route, you'll likely want to consult with a professional. In the end -- if you are considering the purchase of a home that has a pervasive smell of cigarette smoke, don't assume that it will be easy or inexpensive to remove that odor! | |
|
|
|
|
How Much Are You Willing To Compromise To Live In The Neighborhood Of Your Dreams? |
|
 I think it is reasonable to be willing to compromise on some aspects of your dream home in order to live in your dream neighborhood. For example...
But then, you might find that some compromises are just too much...
In your home search, if you are aiming to be in a certain neighborhood (or neighborhoods) you may be faced with this sometimes difficult question - how much will you compromise on your dream house in order to live in your dream neighborhood. It won't necessarily be a fun conversation or an easy decision - but I'm happy to talk it through with you - and we can best do that inside of that home that is pushing you to consider a compromise... | |
|
|
|
|
How To Find Multi Family Properties To Purchase In and Around Harrisonburg |
|
 Multi Family Properties can be a means to more quickly and simply make a larger investment purchase. Whether it is a duplex, triplex, quad, or a small apartment building, you will often be able to purchase these properties at a lower price per unit, and more quickly increase your total rental income as compared to purchasing one individual property at a time. HOWEVER - there are very few multi-family properties that are offered for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. A few tools for you if you are potentially interested in purchasing a multi-family property in this area. This one has been around for a bit.... Current Multi-Family Listings - bookmark this page on HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com to come back and review current multi-family listings at any time. This is the new one.... Email Alerts for New Multi-Family Listings - sign up to receive an email alert every time a new multi-family property is listed for sale in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County via the HRAR MLS. Enjoy -- and let me know if you have questions about multi-family properties, or real estate investing in general. | |
|
|
|
|
I Would Like To Sell But Cannot Find Anything To Buy |
|
 Something I am hearing with increasing frequency goes something like this...
A few thoughts and notes as it relates to this increasing common occurrence...
It can be a tough time to be a buyer -- and even more so to be a seller and buyer. I recognize that plenty of folks who want to move may just need to stay in their current home -- but let's take some time to explore that together to see if that is the only path forward. | |
|
|
|
|
Detached Homes in the City of Harrisonburg Under $200K Are Harder To Find |
|
 It's harder and harder to find a (detached) home in the City of Harrisonburg under $200K. As shown above, there have been fewer and fewer such home sales over the past few years. As a side note -- the 48 such homes that sold thus far in 2019 have had a median days on market of 5 days. So, when these under $200K homes do come on the market they usually go under contract quickly! As of today, there are 11 such properties on the market - but 7 of them are under contract. Explore all 11 of them here. | |
|
|
|
|
Home Buyers In The City of Harrisonburg Have Fewer and Fewer and Fewer Choices |
|
 As shown above, inventory levels keep on dropping in the City of Harrisonburg!?! Today, you'd have only 50 options for a home in Harrisonburg, compared to...
And, to make matters worse, the 50 houses on the market today are not likely all houses of interest to you, as they include...
And even beyond price, these homes are not all the same...
Anyhow -- the moral of the story is that you may need to be prepared to be patient as a home buyer in the City of Harrisonburg. There aren't many options of houses for sale at any given time -- and when compelling houses do come on the market, they often go under contract QUICKLY! | |
|
|
|
|
Internet Tools Are Great But Cannot Replace Being In A Home |
|
 No, Amazon can't deliver you a new home tomorrow -- even if you are a member of Amazon Prime. We are so used to being able to find everything, do everything, learn everything, buy everything, online. And when it comes to real estate, it is easier to understand houses for sale from behind your computer (or more likely - phone) screen. You can now devour plentiful information about a home for sale to include:
BUT -- nothing replaces actually being in a home. It's then that you get a true sense of how big rooms are, how spaces are connected, what updates you might want to make to the house, how well the space and flow will work for your family and lifestyle, how the topography of the lot affects your use of outdoor space, how close the neighbors feel, how distracting nearby sights or sounds might be, and so much more. These intangibles can't truly be understood until you are inside a home. SO -- if you are starting the home buying process, or deep into it, don't think you should just search, explore and learn online until you find your absolute 100% dream house. It will be more productive for us if we start going to see some houses inside, in person, in real life! | |
|
|
|
|
Inventory Levels Seem Unable To Drop Below 250 |
|
 It's been the story for quite a few years now (at least 10 years, it seems) that inventory levels are dropping -- buyers have fewer and fewer homes from which to choose when they are looking to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here are how many homes have been on the market in October for the past 10 years...
So, it's certainly a more challenging time to be a buyer than anytime in the past 10 years -- but inventory levels seem to now be bottoming out around 275. Here's what the past six months have looked like...
So, over the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if we never dipped lower than 250 and we never rose above 300. Given these limited inventory levels, it is more important than ever that buyers in today's market are ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Buyers can make it a bit easier on themselves by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! | |
|
|
|
|
This House Looks Good Online, But...Argh...Not Again!? |
|
 If you're looking to buy a house right now, this might be a familiar experience... A new listing hits the market that seems to fit ALL of your needs...
Then, we go to view the house, and you discover that...
So, what is a buyer to do? Roll their eyes and say "not again!?!?!"? Trust nothing that they see online? Be highly skeptical of the merits of any new listing? Well, sure, those are probably reasonable responses - but in this low inventory environment, a buyer must also keep on exploring each new listing, as doubtful as they may be that it will actually meet their needs when viewed in person. You see, it is a seller's agent's job to present a house as positively as possible -- which can sometimes present a very different house online as compared to what will be understood when viewing the house in person. So -- despite your possible doubts, go ahead and rush out to that new listing that seems to meet all of your needs -- and hopefully you'll be pleasantly surprised! | |
|
|
|
|
New Duplexes Being Built in McGaheysville, VA |
|
 Welcome to Island Ford Estates in McGaheysville, VA! The same builder who brought you The Glen at Cross Keys is now building a very similar floor plan just a few minutes further East in McGaheysville... The site is being prepared for these duplexes -- and wow -- what amazing mountain views!  Island Ford Estates duplexes offer an open floor plan on the main level which includes a kitchen, dining area, living room, master bedroom, office or sitting room and laundry room. Enjoy spectacular mountain views and a cul-de-sac location in these thoughtfully designed homes. These homes feature 9 foot ceilings in many areas, light-filled living areas, luxury vinyl plan flooring, upscale cabinetry, granite countertops and many options and upgrades. Visit IslandFordEstates.com to find floor plans, a site plan, standard features, a vicinity map and more! | |
|
|
|
|
Spend How Much You Want To Spend On A Home, Not Necessarily How Much You Can |
|
 Most folks who buy a home this year will not be paying cash. An important early stage of the home buying process is to talk to a lender to become pre-approved for a mortgage. As you meet with a lender, remember that there is often a difference between:
If you are looking for a qualified mortgage professional, shoot me an email (scott@hhtdy.com) and I can give you some recommendations. As you are navigating the home financing process, I am happy to help you understand the information you are receiving and the decisions you are being asked to make. There are a variety of loan programs that can likely work well for your situation, but we'll want to make sure you are aware of all of your options. Learn more about the home buying process at BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com. | |
|
|
|
|
When To Make An Offer On Your Dream Home If You Also Need To Sell Your House |
|
 In summary - not yet. If you need to sell your house in order to buy a new house -- and if your house is not already under contract -- then even if you find your DREAM HOME -- resist the temptation -- do not make an offer yet! If you make an offer on a house with a home sale contingency without your house already being under contract...
So -- if you view your dream home and you are ready to make an offer but have to sell in order to buy -- don't make the offer yet -- instead...
This may sound/seem difficulty or slow or risky or uncertain -- welcome to the world of trying to sell and buy at the same time! :-) But it can be done and I regularly help folks with this. All of the advice above is generalized -- if you are in a situation where you want to buy but you have to sell -- let's chat more specifically about your situation and develop a game plan. | |
|
|
|
|
Buying vs Building A Home Over $400K |
|
 Most buyers looking to spend over $400K (or certainly those looking over $500K) will also be considering building a new home. Typically, the tension between buying vs building is one of: 1. Goals 2. Money 3. Timing If you build, you can get the house you want, but you'll pay more for it and it will take a lot of time and attention. 1. Goals = Win 2. Money = Lose 3. Timing = Lose If you buy an existing home, you won't get exactly what you want, but you will pay less for the house and the process will not be a drain on your time. 1. Goals = Lose 2. Money = Win 3. Timing = Win Don't let my oversimplification of this issue fool you -- this is something that buyers can get stuck debating for months, or even years, often while looking at resale homes to try to convince themselves to buy instead building. If you are stuck in this quagmire, I'd be happy to meet with you to talk through some of the pros and cons and try to help you come to a decision you'll be pleased with in the short and long term. | |
|
|
|
|
Which Side of 81 Do You Live On? |
|
 If you have lived in Harrisonburg for a while (more than a few years) which side of I-81 do you live on? The East or the West? Would you consider moving to the other side of I-81? Regardless of which side you are on now, I'm guessing most of you wouldn't flip-flop to the other side. Most people stay on one side of I-81 after they buy on that side -- because they get used to the patterns of life on that side of our community. Nothing is necessarily better or worse on one side or the other -- but they are different, that's for sure. EAST: Most of the residential development over the past 15 to 20 years has been on the East side of Harrisonburg, in the general vicinity of the new hospital. This makes it an exciting place to live -- for some people. There are many newer developments where homes have recently been built, and there are newer commercial destinations (Stone Port, Martin's grocery store, Target, etc) all on the East side of town. But this also makes it a bit more hectic for getting around. Of note, there is also plenty of outbound traffic East of town, towards Massanutten, Elkton, Charlottesville, etc. WEST: There hasn't been as much residential development West of Harrisonburg over the past 15 to 20 years (other than Belmont and Monte Vista Estates) and this is just fine with most people who live on the Western side of Harrisonburg. Things are a bit calmer, without as much hustle and bustle, and in some cases with more established neighborhoods. The towns of Dayton and Bridgewater end up falling into this side of town as well for many people. I am not doing justice to all of the differences between the East side of town and the West side of town, but I believe that most people in this area are oriented towards one side of town or the other, for very specific reasons. Furthermore, most people who have spent any considerable amount of time living on one side of Harrisonburg likely wouldn't think about moving over to the other side of Harrisonburg. So -- if you're just moving to the area -- choose East or West carefully -- you might never switch to the other side! :-) | |
|
|
| Older Posts |
Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Home Search
Housing Market Report
Harrisonburg Townhouses
Walk Through This Home
Investment Properties
Heritage Estates
The Glen at Cross Keys
The Townes at Bluestone
Cottages @ Stone Spring
Founders Way
Harrisonburg New Homes
Harrisonburg Assessments
Best Deals In Harrisonburg
Harrisonburg Foreclosures
Bank Owned Properties
Potential Short Sales
Lease/Purchase Options
Owner Financing
Property Transfers
New Listings
Recent Price Changes
Luxury Homes
Secret MRIS Listings
Secret GAAR Listing
Broadway VA Homes
