In my opinion, there is already more than enough college student in Harrisonburg.  That said, a developer will soon be starting a new student housing complex on South Main Street near Valley Lanes.

So....maybe Harrisonburg needs a student housing moratorium?

Joe Fitzgerald states (at the link above) "We can't flat out ban student housing, but we can stop rezoning more land for it."

I never considered that a moratorium on rezoning could be enacted.  Several questions then come to my mind....

Is local government overstepping its bounds to create such a moratorium (via *not* rezoning)? 

Perhaps not --- local government wouldn't be prohibiting development, just the rezoning for development.

So, local government is now making rezoning decisions based on market conditions?  Isn't a landowner entitled to make that part of the decision?

If a surplus of student housing creates a burden on the locality in some way (based on the new use or non-use of the old student housing??) then perhaps local government ought to factor in market conditions?

What does this sort of a moratorium look like?

Is this an unspoken stance of local government?  Or a drafted and approved policy?  Could this be challenged legally?

So, perhaps this all comes back to property owner rights?

Certainly, a property owner has the right to use or develop their property as the zoning ordinances allows them to do so.  But does a property owner have any rights when it comes to rezoning?  Are there reasonable, and unreasonable factors that can and cannot be used in a zoning decision?

Weight in if you have an opinion -- this raises more questions than answers for me.

(The Short Answer:  No!)  As reported by hburgnews a developer from Glen Allen is moving forward with a developing a community for 1,500 college students.  Paul Riner astutely points out (WHSV) that it might be five to ten years before enough students exist at JMU for the community to be fully utilized.

Is there really too much student housing already built?

• In Fall 2007, there were approximately 17,428 students at JMU.  
  
• In a few months (Fall 2010), there are projected to be 18,484 students at JMU. 
  
• This three year increase of 1,056 students has been paired with an the construction of 3,473 off campus beds.

Where are these 3,473 new campus living options?

• 422 in a new JMU residence hall
• 332 at Charleston Townes
• 96 at Sunchase
• 816 at North 38
• 188 at Campus View Condos
• 274 at 865 East
• 1,220 at Copper Beech
• 125 at Urban Exchange

Why was this enormous number of student housing properties built over the past three years? 

A few years ago, Harrisonburg created an incentive (with good intentions) for student housing developers to build now, now, now.  Much of the land in the City that was annexed several decades ago was zoned R-3, which allowed (until recently) a property owner to build student housing (in the form of three-story apartment buildings) without asking for permission.  Much of this R-3 land was adjacent to single family home neighborhoods, and thus Harrisonburg took this "use by right" out of the R-3 zoning classification.  R-3 property owners were left with a three year window of time in which they could build this higher density housing (student housing) without asking for permission -- and thus the construction began!


Finally, here are some fun quotes out of the Daily News Record article of July 25, 2007:

"... James Madison University recently announced plans to increase enrollment by 4,100 students by 2013." 

Total growth will probably end up being around 1,900 students.

"With the influx, we are going to need housing. We are going to need housing quickly." 

Well, we have that new housing now -- but it turns out we don't need much of it!

Last week we explored who owns Harrisonburg, based on where those property owners currently live.  Below are two additional slices of this data set --- exploring the top real estate owners in the City of Harrisonburg based on the number of parcels that they own, as well as the total acreage of the parcels that they own.

The top two in each category probably won't surprise you . . .





One significant note:
I did some basic grouping for the City of Harrisonburg and JMU to combine the parcels owned by each in different variations of their names.  This analysis does not, however, account for the variety of other property owners that own property in slightly different names or under entirely different entity names.

PLEASE NOTE:  This post has been updated since it was originally published to reflect my now more thorough understanding of this issue based on additional input from some of the fine administrators from JMU. 



I frequently receive questions from the parents of JMU students asking whether they can buy a property in Harrisonburg as an investment property in order to qualify for in-state tuition rates.  If this seems like a far-fetched idea, check out the difference in tuition....

• In-State Full Time = $6,964 / year
• Out-of-State Full Time = $18,458 / year

So....can it be done?  Can a JMU student qualify for in-state tuition even if their parents reside out-of-state?  Per my interpretation --- it is not very likely.

First -- if you want to start with the exact details, please check out the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (SCHEV) web site where they provide a lengthy set of "Domicile Guidelines."

OK -- here we go, the bottom line is that if a student arrives in Virginia in August, is enrolled in JMU and continues to be enrolled in JMU (fall and spring semesters) for several years, then the presumption is still that they are in Virginia for education and not as "bona fide" domiciles.

So...how could a student establish themselves as a domicile in order to enjoy the in-state tuition rates? 

• If the parents physically move to Virginia, establish domicile for a period of one year then they MAY qualify for in-state status if they are a dependent student. 
• If a student marries a Virginia domicile to whom they are financially dependent, they MAY qualify for in-state status.
• If a student has a contract with a Virginia employer when they graduate, they MAY qualify for in-state status, but such a contract wouldn't usually exist until their senior year.

Beyond the parent(s) of a dependent student moving to Virginia and waiting a year (or one of the other small exceptions) it will be difficult.  A student would need to prove that they are an independent student, not receiving substantial financial support from their parents, and they will need to prove that they live in Virginia with domiciliary intent, not just for educational purposes.  As is quite clear, proving domiciliary intent will be difficult --- since they moved to Virginia in order to go to school, and it can be presumed that they are staying in Virginia to continue to go to school.

Of note, SCHEV lists a variety of criteria that may indicate domiciliary intent, but these actions are not determinate in themselves:

• Currently living in Virginia, and having done so for at least a year immediately prior to requesting eligibility for in-state tuition.
• Paying Virginia income taxes
• Holding a Virginia driver's license
• Having vehicles registered in Virginia
• Being registered to vote in Virginia -- -and actually voting.
• Being employed in Virginia
• Owning real estate in Virginia, and thus paying property tax in Virginia

SCHEV's Domicile Guidelines provide several additional criteria and explanations --- read it through fully, as the burden of proof is on the student when alleging qualification for in-state tuition.

My conclusion is this --- even if a student buys a house (or townhouse or condo) in Harrisonburg, lives in it, works in Virginia, pays income taxes in Virginia, has a car registered in Virginia, has a Virginia driver's license, votes in Virginia, intends to stay in Virginia after graduation, and is independent from their parents, that still doesn't necessarily mean that they will qualify for in-state tuition.  The issue, again, is that it will be difficult to prove domiciliary intent when the move to Virginia and continued residency in Virginia is so immediately and directly tied to attending JMU.

PLEASE NOTE:  This is not an official interpretation of Virginia Domicile Requirements, it is solely my interpretation of SCHEV's guidelines to provide a hopefully-useful summary for you.  If you have questions about these issues, contact the following people depending on your scenario....

• Incoming Freshmen should contact the JMU Admissions Office.
• Current Students should contact Linda Combs.
• Incoming Graduate Students should contact KathyThompson.

Harrisonburg has a tremendous over-supply of student housing, but it's not the first time!  I've been engaged in some fascinating reading (thanks JGFitzgerald!) over the past day or so --- a Citywide Housing Analysis for Harrisonburg, Virginia compiled by S. Patz & Associates, Inc in 2005.  Yes, it's becoming dated, but it provides some valuable insights into the history of our local real estate market. 

Here are a few statements that are quite interesting within the current JMU enrollment and student housing context:


Wow --- and to think that in the past two years, new student housing units have been built to accommodate an additional 3,292 students!?!


This is interesting --- in the early 2000's there was an oversupply, then things were back to being balanced by 2005 (date of report), and we again have a significant oversupply in 2009.  This report identifies immigrants as a population that filled the vacant student housing in the early 2000's.  Will we see that again?  And if not, who will fill the vacancies?


Again --- this begs the question of who will fill the anticipated 2,470 empty "beds" this coming fall that are/were intended for college students.

If you're interested, there is a lot more very interesting data in this 129-page Citywide Housing Analysis report published in 2005.  I'll be taking a look at some additional sections in the days to come.

Two years ago there was a relatively even balance between students and housing.  Now, as we approach Fall 2009, there will be 822 additional students, and 3,292 additional bedrooms for students.  Woah --- did you catch that?  An extra 2,470 bedrooms!?!

I've written about it before....

• The real reasons why so much student housing is being built for JMU students...  Jun 09
• Understanding the Over-Supply of JMU Student Housing  Mar 09
• JMU Student Housing Supply & Demand Analysis  Feb 09

.... but let me try to clarify a bit more, since the numbers changed just last week.

The Students
Enrollment Projections Data Source: http://www.jmu.edu/instresrch/project.shtml

• The total on-campus enrollment for Fall 2007 was 17,428.
• The total on-campus enrollment for Fall 2009 is projected to be 18,250.
• Of note, prior JMU enrollment projections showed that there were to be 885 new students between 2007 and 2008.  In the end, there were only 536.
• Of SIGNIFICANT note, prior JMU enrollment projections showed that there were to be 1,500 new students between 2007 and 2009.  But approximately a week ago, these enrollment projections were amended by JMU, with current projections now showing an increase of 822 instead of 1,500.  Enrollment projections have been significantly scaled back over the next five years because JMU is not receiving enough funding from the state to be able to grow their faculty, staff, campus and degree programs to meet their prior enrollment projections.

The Housing
The following new housing projects (with the corresponding number of "beds") all make up the 3,292 new "beds" that will exist as of August 2009.

• JMU Residence Hall (422)
• Charleston Townes (172) --- with 356 more to come
• Sunchase (96)
• North 38 (816)
• Campus View (192) --- with 476 more to come
• 865 East (274)
• Copper Beach (1,220)
• Urban Exchange (100)

The Impact
Only time will tell what the impact will be of this over supply of student housing.  So far, it has translated into many lease incentives for students, and higher than expected vacancy rates for many apartment complexes. Many student housing developers say that the newest complexes in the closest proximity to a college campus will be the most successful -- so far this seems to be playing itself out here in Harrisonburg, as many new complexes are doing quite well, and some older complexes are having difficulties leasing.

This past week the Daily News Record published an article about the new housing complexes being built to house JMU students.  I believe the uninformed reader of the article would assume that there is a relatively good balance between students and housing --- but according to my calculations there is a significant oversupply of student housing for JMU students!

Here are the numbers...

• On-Campus Headcount has increased (or is projected to increase) by 1,500 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2009.
• In this same two year time period new housing developments have accounted for 3,340 new "beds".

Why will this oversupply exist?

• The Daily News Record consistently uses enrollment figures creatively to exaggerate JMU growth, though I won't speculate as to whether it is innocent or intentional.  If you compare the figures in the DNR article with JMU enrollment projections, you'll see that they use a lower enrollment metric (students taking classes at the JMU campus) when referring to past enrollment figures, and they use a higher enrollment metric (students taking classes at the JMU campus, or anywhere else) when referring to current or future enrollment figures.  The result is that JMU growth seems more significant than it actually is.  Take a few minutes to see where on the JMU enrollment projections page they pulled the figures in paragraph 3 and 4 of the DNR article, and you'll start to see the errors in their comparisons.  Their "8 percent increase from last fall" is actually a 5.5 percent increase if you use the same metric for the two data points.  Is this simply an error, or does 8 percent sound better than only 5.5 percent?
• Harrisonburg created an incentive (with good intentions) for student housing developers to build now, now, now.  Much of the land in the City that was annexed several decades ago was zoned R-3, which allowed (until recently) a property owner to build student housing (in the form of three-story apartment buildings) without asking for permission.  Much of this R-3 land was adjacent to single family home neighborhoods, and thus Harrisonburg took this "use by right" out of the R-3 zoning classification.  R-3 property owners were left with a three year window of time in which they could build this higher density housing (student housing) without asking for permission -- and thus the construction began!

Don't Build Anymore!  My concern when I read an article such as the one that ran last week in the DNR is that a local (or out of town) developer will read the article and will decide to build more student housing because of the (exaggerated) enrollment growth and the (fictional) even balance between students and housing.  If you're a student housing developer feel free to contact me (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) to discuss this further --- but please don't start building more student housing before completing a thorough market study beyond the figures reported in the Daily News Record.

Tell Your Friends!  Last week I was told of a (usually) well informed local business leader who was convinced that JMU will be growing to 30,000 and then 40,000 students within the next 5 - 10 years.  This type of casual conversation will lead to an even wider sentiment that we need more student housing in Harrisonburg --- and this individual is often in conversation with student housing developers.

I'm stepping down from my soap box now, but I hope that student housing developers, and those that advise them, will carefully study our market before continuing on a rampage of building college student housing!

Many parents of JMU students consider buying a property in Harrisonburg for their son or daughter to live in while attending college.  This can be a great financial alternative to paying several years of rent, especially if there is, or may be more than one student in a family attending JMU.

But you can't just come to Harrisonburg, buy any property, and put your students and all of their friends into it.  Here's what you need to know about buying houisng for your JMU student to live in with friends:

• SINGLE FAMILY HOMES  ::  Almost all single family homes in Harrisonburg won't work --- if you're looking to house more than 2 people (including your son or daughter).  Most single family home neighborhoods are zoned R-1 or R-2, both of which prohibit having more than two unrelated people living in any property.  If your son or daughter has two (or more) roommates, then most single family homes will likely not work for you.
• GRANDFATHERED-IN SINGLE FAMILY HOMES  ::  There are some single family homes that have been used as rental properties (for more than 2 unrelated people) since before the zoning code prohibited such a use.  These properties are "grandfathered in" such that continuing to lease it to more than two unrelated people is acceptable.  A transfer of the property (upon sale) does not limit the ability of the new owner to use the property in the same way.  Of note, these properties don't become available very often, as most owners of such properties have held them for decades and will continue to hold them indefinitely.
  
• ANY TOWNHOME  ::  You might think that just about any townhome would work to hold 3 or 4 students, but many neighborhoods actually have restrictions in their "Restrictive Covenants" that prohibit an owner from leasing the property to more than two unrelated people.  Adding this verbiage into the Restrictive Covenants in many cases was a requirement for obtaining a re-zoning to allow for the townhouses to be built.
• SOME TOWNHOMES  ::  There are some townhome communities where the restrictive covenants do not prohibit having 3 or 4 (unrelated) tenants living together.  Some examples include one of the sections of Avalon Woods, Beacon Hill, Blakely Park and Wishing Well Estates.
  
• COLLEGE COMPLEXES  ::  Most off campus housing complexes are "corporately owned" --- that is that they are owned by one corporation or individual, and thus individual units, condos and townhouses cannot be purchased in those developments.  There are, however, a few college student housing options where an owner can come in and buy one or two units and not have to worry about zoning, non-student neighbors, etc.  These areas include Hunters Ridge and Madison Manor.

If you are considering buying a house, townhouse or condo for your student(s) to live in while at school, please be in touch (540-578-0102, scott@cbfunkhouser.com).  I have worked with numerous people in this situation, and would be delighted to meet you.

As I explained yesterday, there will be a rather significant over-supply of housing for JMU students in the fall, with an estimated 1,740 empty "beds" across all student housing options.  As a reference point, my calculations show a current over-supply (during this 08/09 academic year) of approximately 1,075 beds.

Why does this over-supply of housing for JMU students exist?

1. JMU was projected to grow, and a lot of developers started student housing projects to take advantage of this growth.  Of note, in December 2007 I pointed out that the the way the media has been counting JMU students might lead student housing developers astray.
2. Harrisonburg put a time table (deadline = July 2010) on building student housing development without having to ask for permission.  This encouraged (along with the growth projections) many student housing developers to get started immediately.
   

What effects will we see of this over-supply of housing for JMU students?

1. Some housing complexes will likely have high vacancy rates next year.  Student housing trends from around the country would suggest it will either be the oldest complexes, or those farthest from campus.
2. Rental rates may decrease, as landlords compete to find tenants.
   

Who needs to know about this over-supply, and what should they do?

1. Student housing developers should carefully consider their planned development timeline to account for an over-supply in the market.
2. Owners of student housing properties should position their property carefully in respect to price, included amenities, lease terms, etc.
3. Potential purchasers of college student housing should carefully consider the implications of such a purchase in our current market.  Those purchasing solely as an investment need to be aware of possible declines in rental rates, and increases in vacancy rates.  Those purchasing to have a place for their son or daughter to live should likely still consider a purchase, but should be aware of market conditions.
4. Owners of "possible" student housing properties (i.e. townhouses somewhat near JMU, but not in student housing complexes) should consider targeting the non-student market.
   

The JMU student housing market is entering a new cycle where supply will well exceed demand.  Our market has not seen this type of an imbalance in many years, so many of the implications remain to be seen.

As we approach the 2009/2010 academic year at JMU, I believe we will be facing a significant surplus in student housing for JMU students.  However, do bear in mind that there are many factors that make it difficult to track the actual supply and demand for student housing, including:

• There are many metrics by which JMU measures their enrollment, some of which include part-time students, those studying abroad, faculty and staff enrolled in courses, etc., each of whom may not actually need student housing.
• Aside from student housing available in well-defined areas (on campus residence halls, apartment complexes), there are also many housing units that may or may not be leased to JMU students in any given year (single family homes, individual townhomes in communities near campus, etc).

To analyze the current student housing supply and demand, I used Fall 2007 enrollment data as a baseline (17,428 students), and I made the assumption that there was a balance between supply and demand for the 2007/2008 academic year.  In other words, I assumed that there were approximately 17,428 "beds" available for students (on campus, off campus complexes, off campus houses, off campus townhouses, etc).  I believe there was some small amount of vacancy at that time, but it was negligible.
   
On the demand side of the student housing equation, enrollment for Fall 2009 is projected to be 18,928 students.  This is an increase of 1,500 students as compared to our Fall 2007 baseline.

On the supply side, I estimate that 3,240 additional beds will be available for Fall 2009 as compared to Fall 2007.  These new beds are located in the following communities:

• JMU Residence Hall
• 865 East
• Campus View Condos
• Charleston Townes
• Copper Beach
• North 38
• Sunchase
• Urban Exchange
  

Thus, per my analysis, there will be a surplus of 1,740 beds for Fall 2009.  This equates to an overall vacancy rate of 9.2%.  Accounting for anticipated enrollment growth, the continuation of current student housing projects, and the onset of new student housing projects, I anticipate the following surplus housing supply in the coming years:

• Fall 2009    1,740 bed surplus    9.2% vacancy
  
• Fall 2010    1,351 bed surplus    6.9% vacancy
  
• Fall 2011    1,066 bed surplus    5.3% vacancy

The above projections do not consider additional projects that may come online that are unknown at the current time.

After missing the 7pm announcement of the JMU Football Playoff Schedule, I was delighted to have such a fast response when asking about the results on Facebook. 

The good news --- JMU could be at home for all three playoff games leading up to the National Champtionship!

Thanks to Rich Hine at Preston Lake for the tip about discounted JMU football tickets for the first home game on versus NC Central on Saturday, September 6th.  With tickets at only $10 (for end zone seats), you won't want to miss what is sure to be a great game!

One of the many outstanding student athletes you'll see in action is Rodney Landers (pictured to the right).  If you aren't sure who Rodney is, read this recent Daily News Record article, where a teammate is quoted as saying:

"He's Rodney Landers . . . He can score a touchdown on any play he has the ball in his hands. He's Rodney. That's all I can say."

Buy your JMU football tickets today!  And GO DUKES!

As a proud (two-time) JMU alumni, I'm excited to wish JMU a Happy 100th Birthday! 

More details on the festivities are here . . .



Click the image above for a printable version of this fantastic photo --- formed by several thousand members of the JMU community (students, faculty, staff, administration, etc).

Urban Exchange, an exciting new mixed-use development, will be built with frontage on East Market Street and Mason Street --- within walking distance to downtown Harrisonburg and JMU campus.



The six-story structure will be comprised of (196) 1, 2 and 3 bedroom condos / apartments, as well as approximately 12,000 s.f. of retail space -- to house tenants such as a coffee shop, restaurant, and other retail operations.

These brand new, upscale units will be available both for sale or for lease. Amenities will include on-site parking, free internet and phone service, a state-of the-art fitness center, public space and an outdoor courtyard.

Demolition on the existing structures will begin this month, and the entire project will be complete by Summer 2009.

For more information about Urban Exchange, visit http://www.ueharrisonburg.com.

Last week the Daily News Record reported that 3,700 residential units are under construction, which seemed to be quite a bit of housing for JMU students.  

Below is a bit more information that sheds some light on the matter (facts and figures provided by Harrisonburg Community Development, summary and commentary by me) . . .

The "3,700 units" referenced in the Daily News Record includes projects in various stages ranging from recent rezonings to projects for which building permits have been issued.  Some of the housing projects included in the "3,700 units" of housing shouldn't be aligned with college student enrollment growth:

1. Some projects were included that are just about complete and occupied (parts of Liberty Square, Beacon Hill, Millwood Condos, Sunset Heights-Holmes Addt., Westfield, and Willow Ridge).

2. Some projects are not aimed at student occupancy (Christophel Properties, Founders Way Condos, Hidden Creek Apts., Hillmont Apts., Lady Slipper Ct., Beacon Hill, Liberty Square, Miller's Homestead, Millwood Condos, Park Rose Place, The Quarry, Townes of Bluestone, Townes at Wellington Park, Wishing Well Estates II).

The largest remaining projects, aimed at students would be:

Campus View Condos
(84) 2-3 BR units    
(84) 4 BR units

Copper Beach
(78) 1BR units
(78) 2BR units
(118) 3BR units
(158) 4BR units

Latitude 38
(96) 3 BR units
(132) 4 BR units

Purple and Gold TH
(132) 4 BR units

Sunchase
(24) 4 BR units

Hunters Ridge
(16)-(24) 4 BR units

Totaling these yields about 3,300 beds aimed at students, which turns the debate back to how many more JMU students will be enrolled in coming years.  I would estimate 2,800 based on JMU and SCHEV figures --- the Daily News Record continues to estimate 4,100.  No wonder developers keep coming on the scene to build more student housing!

In the end, we'll just have to wait and see which projects are actually built out.  Some developers may decide to hold off on their projects as they learn more about the market, or as their bankers learn more about increasing vacancy rates.

In most situations, it's o.k. if we aren't working with an exact number for JMU enrollment.  However, many developers are currently spending a lot of money to build thousands of housing units in Harrisonburg --- many of which are intended to be occupied by JMU students.

When you dig into the numbers, it starts looking like we will have a significant over-supply of college housing in the coming years . . .

How Many Bedrooms??

Per today's Daily News Record, "more than 3,700 residential-housing units are under construction or in various stages of approval" --- of which 2,985 are apartments or townhouses.  However, many of these are not 1-bedroom housing units, but 2, 3, or 4 bedroom.  We'll assume for a moment that they average out at 2 bedrooms per unit.  This provides us with 5,970 "beds" to fill --- and the article later states that by 2013, the city will need 2,500 additional beds for JMU students.  Hmmmm.......so far that's 3,470 extra beds --- and I hope they aren't finished too quickly!

What Is Headcount?

The second problem (for developers spending lots of money on building these housing units) is that the figures being used for JMU enrollment can be a bit deceiving.  The above-referenced article references 2013 enrollment as 21,500. 

The only enrollment projection I can find on SCHEV's web site close to 21,500 is the "Total Fall Headcount".  This is defined by SCHEV as "A student enrolled for more than zero credit hours in courses offered for degree or certificate credit, or a student who meets the criteria for classification as a remedial student."  My understanding is that this would include faculty or staff taking one (or more) class(es), students studying abroad, local residents taking one (or more) class(es), etc.  All of these categories of "fall headcounts" wouldn't at all contribute to a demand for student housing.  The Total Fall Headcount shows 21,542 students in 2013.

For the best "living in Harrisonburg, needing student housing" enrollment figures, I am almost always pointed to the "Regular Session Full-Time Equivalent" data, which is defined by SCHEV as "A calculation of enrollment based on total credit hours taken byundergraduates and first professionals divided by 30 and added to totalgraduate credit hours divided by 24. Includes fall and spring semestersonly, does not include summer term enrollments. May be broken out by onand off-campus activity."  This is a calculation to get a lot closer to the number of full time students will be attending JMU --- and these numbers show 19,333 students in 2013.

Does it matter, or are we just splitting hairs?

If you explore SCHEV's Enrollment Projections, you'll see that there are a lot of figures that can be used for estimating future JMU enrollment figures.  My concern is that the figure that developers are using for their decisions is the highest number available -- and one that counts people who would not be seeking student housing.

I can understand that the City and the Daily News Record use that highest figure in many situations, but when student housing developers use it for planning purposes, it may be a cause for concern.

Lots of people consider buying investment properties -- and in Harrisonburg many people start by investigating college housing. Some don't end up buying, and here is why . . .

Limited Choices

Most of the student housing that exists in Harrisonburg today is corporately owned --- each unit isn't owned by one or more people, the entire complex is owned by a corporation. Thus, if we look just at housing for JMU students, where individual housing units can be purchased, the choices quickly become boiled down to:

1. Hunters Ridge (condominium or townhouse, on Port Republic Road)
2. Madison Manor (condominiums or townhouses, on Blue Ridge Drive)
3. Townhouses close to campus (Liberty Square, Stonewall Heights, Avalon Woods, etc)
   
4. Single family homes close to campus (Mason St, Main St, Liberty St, High St, etc)

However, the properties that JMU students, JMU parents, JMU alumni, and investors as a whole are most interested in are at Hunters Ridge, because of its close proximity to campus.

Limited Monthly Cash Flow

Many investors aim to at least break even on a monthly basis -- they don't want to be losing money each month that they own an investment property. With this assumption, let's take a look at how the cash flow might work on a monthly basis for 1346-D Hunters Road, one example of a Hunters Ridge condominium for sale as of 12/20/2007.

Price of $105k, 80% financed at 7.25%, self-managed
Rental Income + $770
Mortgage (Principal & Interest) - $573
Condo Association Fee - $155
Real Estate Taxes - $45
Insurance - $35
Monthly Profit - $38 (a small loss)

However, many potential investors call and indicate that they only want to use a 10% down payment, and that they plan to have a property management company take care of the property. Things get worse . . .

Price of $105k, 90% financed at 7.25%, property management
Rental Income + $770
Mortgage (Principal & Interest) - $645
Condo Association Fee - $155
Property Management - $77
Real Estate Taxes - $45
Insurance - $35
Monthly Profit - $225 (a big loss)

Then Why???

With these monthly losses, you might wonder why someone would buy an investment property. There are a lot of possible reasons why someone might buy, or why the numbers might work differently for them:

• If an investor is financing less than 80% (and thus has more than a 20% down payment), cash flow will improve.
• Losses on investment property can be good from a tax perspective.
• Some investors are comfortable with some losses, in order to take advantage of future appreciation of property values.

Lots of people have become very wealthy investing in real estate --- however, as explained here --- every investment is not necessarily a good one for every investor. Check the cash flow!

Construction is booming on Old Furnace Road --- making way for "Latitude 38", a 228-unit, 800+ bedroom complex of student housing for JMU students. 

Some public details of the development were highlighted in the Daily News Record in August.  The project is being developed by Franklin Holdings out of Charlotte, NC. 

Apparently they developers didn't read this, as they reference an increase of 4,000 students "over the next few years", whereas SCHEV's FTE Regular Session numbers would suggest that even all the way through 2013/2014 we'll only see a growth of 2,787 students.

One thing is for sure --- students at James Madison University will certainly have a lot of housing choices in the coming years!

How many students attend James Madison University? How many will in the near future? Depending on who you ask, there are a lot of answers to those questions . . .

Current Enrollment (2007-2008)

• 16,546 (JMU - "On Campus Students")
• 15,868 (SCHEV - "Full Time Equivalent Regular Session Students")
• 18,100 (Daily News Record - "Enrolled in at least one class")

6-Year Projected Enrollment (2013-2014)

• 19,333 (SCHEV)
  
• 21,500 (Daily News Record)

As becomes apparent, depending on which numbers we compare, we would find a different growth rate.

• SCHEV to SCHEV shows 17% growth --- an increase of 2,787 students between 2007/08 and 2013/14.
  
• The Daily News Record article references an increase of 4,100 students, being a 24% increase. The article was written this past July, and thus they compared last year's enrollment figures (2006/07) with 2013/14projections.
  

Here's the rub --- growth of 2,787 is significantly different than 4,100 --- and growth to an enrollment of 19,333 is significantly different than 21,500. There are lots of ways to measure "JMU students" --- but since people are making decisions or coming to conclusions based on the statistics, I would encourage them to:

• Make sure you know what the numbers represent (any student taking one class vs. full time student residing in Harrisonburg, etc).
• If you are measuring growth, make sure you are comparing numbers derived using the same measurement tool.