After staying relatively stable over the past few years, townhome values are dropping quite quickly in 2011 -- per the median home value of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County townhomes....



Townhome Sales between January and March 2010:

• 42 sales
• Average Sales Price = $171,260
• Median Sales Price = $155,000

Townhome Sales between January and March 2011:

• 32 sales
• Average Sales Price = $144,608
• Median Sales Price = $126,000

I believe what we're seeing here is that the median (and average) sales prices are coming down because of the composition of which (townhome) properties have actually sold in the first quarter of 2011.  If my theory is correct. the median (and average) sales prices might increase quickly as the year continues.  Alternatively, they could stay quite low if the smaller, older, more remote townhomes continue to sell -- at lower prices than most.


Properties selling in 2011 (1Q) under the $126,000 median sales price included:

• $49K  -  1346 Hunters Road (Hunters Ridge, student condo)
  
• $74K  -  423 Wirt Avenue (Elkton)
  
• $90K  -  3602 Killy Court (Massanutten)
  
• $90K  -  1171 Rosedale Drive (Rosedale)
  
• $100K  -  116 Granny Smith Drive (Timberville)
  
• $100K  -  118 Granny Smith Drive (Timberville)
  
• $100K  -  120 Granny Smith Drive (Timberville)
  
• $107K  -  1642 Buttonwood Court (Harmony Heights)
  
• $113K  -  964 Rosedale Drive (Rosedale)
  
• $116K  -  1017 Misty Court (Misty Meadows)
  
• $120K  -  136 Olivia Dawn Lane (Broadway)
  
• $120K  -  1151 Commercial Court (Park Crest)
  
• $123K  -  206 A Fourteenth Street (Grottoes)
  
• $125K  -  3004 Kidd Court (Massanutten condo)
  
• $125K  -  206 D Fourteenth Street (Grottoes)
  
• $125K  -  1211 Mountain View Drive (University Court)
    
  

The bottom line (if you made it down here) is that the data thus far from 2011 does not necessarily mean your townhome's value has taken a nose dive.  It may just mean that small, less expensive townhomes are the ones that are actually selling these days.

It's rather puzzling.  Despite fewer (and fewer) townhome buyers, prices are holding relatively steady....



One of my clients hypothesized that perhaps prices are holding steady because the townhomes that buyers are actually buying these days (2010/2011) are new townhomes, and are thus worth more. 

To test this theory (which I definitely agreed with) I examined the median age of the townhomes that sold for each year between 2006 and 2010....



Based on the information above, it doesn't seem that townhomes are holding steady in price because buyers are just buying new townhomes these days.  In fact, the reverse is true, more of the townhomes purchased 4 and 5 years ago were new than of those purchased in 2010/2011.

Examining the data from another perspective, I thought I'd check the percentage of the townhome market that is made up of sales of new townhomes....



Again, the data shows that fewer and fewer (proportionally) of the townhomes being purchased are new townhomes --- thus the theory that prices are holding because newer townhomes are what is actually selling does not seem to hold true.

So, what could it be?  Any other theories that I can test?  Why are townhome values so resilient in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?
 

In working with several townhome buyers over the past few months, I developed the map below outlining the main "new-ish" townhome developments in and around Harrisonburg.  There are certainly other smaller and/or older subdivisions, but this map shows the location of your main options for two and three story townhomes.  Take a look below the map for links to properties for sale in each subdivision.



New-ish townhomes for sale in and around Harrisonburg:

• Avalon Woods
• Beacon Hill
• Blakely Park
• Harmony Heights
• Liberty Square
• Stonewall Heights
• Taylor Grove
• Taylor Spring
• The Gables
  
• The Townes at Bluestone
• Twin Gables
  
• Wellington Park
  

For more information about any of these townhome communities, or for any other smaller, older subdivisions, e-mail me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102.