Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
New Construction
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Are Lumber Prices Finally Starting To Normalize? |
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 If you haven't heard -- lumber prices skyrocketed during COVID. The graph above shows only the past 12 months. If we look a bit further back we can get a bit more context...
So, "normal" over the four years prior to COVID seemed to be a range of around $300 to $475 --- although prices did rise to $639 back in mid 2018. But then, as lumber mills shut down due to COVID and production slowed, prices skyrocketed, getting as high as $1,635 in May 2021. But over the past month, that price has fallen quite a bit...
So, a nearly 50% decline in prices over the past 45 days? That is solid progress towards getting lumber prices back to their long term normal-ish range. Hopefully this will mean we'll start to see more new construction, creating more housing inventory, and easing the inventory strained housing market... | |
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265 (More) Apartments Planned For Stone Spring Road |
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 Harman Realty and Stone Spring Holdings LLC are proposing to build 265 apartments in a development to be called EPOCH on Stone Spring Road, between The Overlook at Stone Spring and Squire Hill Apartments. These apartments would be built on the 17 acres shown above. The proposed site plan references cottages, townhouses and apartments -- but they all seem to be multiple dwelling units per building, so they might all feel like apartments? City staff recommends approval of this proposal, as does the Planning Commission. City Council will have the final say on the matter in the near future.  | |
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Buying vs Building When Hit With Low Inventory AND High Building Costs |
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 Typically, the tension between buying vs building is one of: 1. Goals 2. Money 3. Timing If you build, you can get the house you want, but you'll pay more for it and it will take a lot of time and attention. 1. Goals = Win 2. Money = Lose 3. Timing = Lose If you buy an existing home, you won't get exactly what you want, but you will pay less for the house and the process will not be a drain on your time. 1. Goals = Lose 2. Money = Win 3. Timing = Win Don't let my oversimplification of this issue fool you -- this is something that buyers can get stuck debating for months, or even years, often while looking at resale homes to try to convince themselves to buy instead building. AND -- two current market conditions are making it an even more complicated decision...
If you are stuck in this quagmire, I'd be happy to meet with you to talk through some of the pros and cons and try to help you come to a decision you'll be pleased with in the short and long term. | |
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34 Single Family Home and Duplex Lots Planned At Highview Estates, Just North of Harrisonburg City Line |
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 view a larger map here Per recent versions of the Rockingham County Planning Commission meeting packets, a new development is being planned for Route 42 North -- just barely outside the City of Harrisonburg, The site plan currently on file with the County is shown below, though it is likely not the final site plan. Per the County's notes it is "awaiting corrections and resubmittal." The current version of the site plan shows (18) single family home lots and (16) duplex lots -- for a total of 34 homes.  view a clearer plan here This is one of the many new residential developments in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County that are under construction or in planning phases as outlined here. | |
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New Residential Developments In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 As I hear about new developments being planned or proposed or approved, I'll add them to the list below. What am I missing or forgetting? CITY OF HARRISONBURG - PLANNED / PROPOSED Two41 (Blue Ridge Drive)
Stoney Ridge (South Main Street)
Juniper Hill Commons (Keezletown Road) ROCKINGHAM COUNTY - UNDER CONSTRUCTION Congers Creek Townhomes (Boyers Road)
Congers Creek Apartments (Boyers Road)
Crescent Ridge (Taylor Spring Lane)
Bridgewater Fields (Bridgewater)
Locust Grove Village (Boyers Road)
Preston Lake Apartments (Boyers Road)
Senior Living Facility (Boyers Road)
South Peak (McGaheysville) ROCKINGHAM COUNTY - PLANNED / PROPOSED Wingate Meadows (Pleasant Valley Road)
Boyers Crossing (Boyers Road)
Stoney Ridge (South Main Street)
Crownpoint Independent Living (Apple Valley Road)
Overbrook (McGaheysville)
The Ponds of Island Ford (McGaheysville)
Highview Estates (Harpine Highway)
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29 More Townhouses Likely Coming To Vine Street |
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 view a larger map here The Harrisonburg Planning Commission recommended the approval of the rezoning of a 2.25 acre parcel on Vine Street to allow for 29 townhouses to be built as per the proposed site plan below...  view a larger site plan here This is one of the many new residential developments in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County that are under construction or in planning phases as outlined here. | |
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Ryan Homes May Be Starting To Help Some Housing Inventory Issues In Rockingham County |
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 Ryan Homes, a regional builder currently building homes in 15 different states including Virginia now has two communities underway in Rockingham County and likely will be bringing more on board in the future. SOUTH PEAK is a community of single level, three bedroom (1343 - 1527 SF) duplexes in McGaheysville with current pricing seeming to be mostly between $275K and $350K. While it appears that this will be a community of 72 duplex, thus far, 35 homes have sold, 2 are under contract and one is listed for sale, at least per the MLS. SHADY CREEK is a community of three and four bedroom (1296 - 1903 SF) single family homes (so far, though I believe attached dwellings are to come) in Grottoes with current pricing seeming to be mostly between $270K and $325K. Thus far, 17 homes are under contract and 4 are listed for sale, at least per the MLS. We are definitely having some inventory issues in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- with more buyers wanting to buy than there are sellers willing to sell. New home construction at scale can help to address this unmet buyer demand. Thus far, these communities by Ryan Homes are only hitting two segments of our local market but I believe we will see more communities to come that will likely create inventory in other areas and price ranges in our local market. | |
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Building Lots For Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 If you aren't finding what you're looking for in a resale home, you could always build a home! Yes, admittedly, construction costs are high right now, but you may want to at least explore your options. The list above shows each of the subdivisions where you can currently buy a building lot in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. If you are interested in additional details on any of these building lots, just let me know.
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You Can Buy A New Single Family Home Under $300K, Or Even Under $250K |
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 With home prices rising so much over the past few years if you just took a cursory look at the market you might think your only option for a new home under $250K is a townhouse. That's not actually true. In the past year, (20) new single family (detached) homes sold under $250K in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County for less than $250K. Hard to believe isn't it? See them all here. If we expanded that to homes under $300K, we'll find 36 sales! Not interested in what sold over an entire year? Curious about what is currently on the market? There are 40 new homes under $300K that are currently on the market and under contract and 7 new homes currently for sale under $300K. Many of the new homes under $250K are currently found in Brentwood subdivision where a new section just opened up. Many of the new homes between $250K and $300K are in Shady Creek, in Grottoes, where Ryan Homes just started building homes. Now, it should also be noted that some buyers might look at the new homes available under $250K or under $300K and say...
...all of which are valid conclusions -- but just because some buyers won't choose to buy these new homes under $250K or under $300K based on their style, size or location that doesn't mean that they aren't being built -- or that it is not possible to build them. Also, circling back to the beginning -- it is certainly true that you can spend over $250K on a new townhouse -- with the two current obvious examples being Congers Creek and Crescent Ridge. | |
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How To Solve The Housing Inventory Crisis |
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 Here are the top three ways to solve our current housing inventory crisis...
No, but really. Keep reading to find out why... Let's think about it for a moment... here are how there come to be new listings for sale...
So, as you can see, all of these ways in which new listings come about are not likely (in the current market at the current time) to help us dig our way out of our local housing inventory crisis. So, what's the answer? Basically, the only way we will make meaningful progress towards addressing this crisis in housing inventory is if quite a few new homes are built! Here's hoping that area builders will be building some new homes for buyers to buy in 2021 and beyond in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! | |
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337 Homes To Be Built On Pleasant Valley Road |
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 A new neighborhood is coming to Pleasant Valley Road, across the street from The Springs at Osceola. Way back in 2009, this land was rezoned as a part of the 282.86 acres of land that was to be developed as The Springs at Osceola. Now, however, the developer plans to develop the 71.502 acres on the west side of Pleasant Valley Road as a separate neighborhood, Wingate Meadows subdivision. Wingate Meadows would consist of 337 homes, including...
County staff recommended approving this rezoning on January 28, 2021. The Planning Commission recommended approving this rezoning on February 2, 2021. The Board of Supervisors approved the subdivision on February 24, 2021. You can download the rezoning packet here, and this is the proposed layout...  view a larger version here | |
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Site Plan and Renderings For Boyers Crossing, Proposed Mixed Use Development |
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A developer is proposing that Rockingham County rezone a 5.69 acre parcel at the corner of Port Republic Road and Boyers Road for...
The developer has now published renderings of the proposed development which can be found on their website.  Some additional details are now available from the proposed development's website...
This is a proposed mixed use development, and you can read more about the mixed use developments that do and do not already exist locally here. Feedback about this potential rezoning can be sent to... | |
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72 Apartments In Six Buildings Proposed in the City of Harrisonburg Adjacent To Planned Mixed Use Development In Rockingham County |
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 A new development, Stoney Ridge, is continuing to take shape near the DMV on Route 11 south in Harrisonburg, The majority of the development would exist in the County but a portion of the development land is in the City. The County portion of the development would include...
The City portion of the development would include...
A few downloads of interest... Harrisonburg City Council will consider the developer's request for the rezoning of the City portion of the development land at their meeting tonight. Planning Commission recommends approving this rezoning. City Council will also be considering a rezoning to allow for 142 apartments proposed for the intersection of Blue Ridge Drive and Country Club Road. Planning Commission recommends denying this rezoning. Update 2/11/2021: Per the 2/11/2021 Daily News Record, City Council approved this rezoning request. | |
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Why Is Unmet Home Buyer Demand So High In Harrisonburg? |
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 Earlier this week I was chatting with some friends and clients who relocated out of Harrisonburg (out of state) nearly a decade ago. They are now looking to move back to Harrisonburg and are accurately observing that our local housing market is at a drastically different point now than it was a decade (+/-) ago when they left. The most pressing issue at hand for them, as soon-to-be buyers in this market, is the extraordinary high level of unmet home buyer demand. And so we pondered aloud why in the world buyer demand is so high in Harrisonburg. Here's my overly condensed thesis...
Put differently, with some make believe numbers, to illustrate the point... 2010 = population of 50,000 2020 = population of 55,000 Increased population = 5,000 5000 newly built housing options between 2010 and 2020:
The problem, then, is that many more than 500 (10%) of the new population want to buy single family detached homes -- but that is not what has been built over the past decade. Further exacerbating the problem is that plenty of the already existing 50,000 population also wants to move up to a single family detached home, putting more and more pressure on that segment of the market. So - the population is increasing and housing options are increasing, but the housing that is being created is not matching what the expanding population desires. Why!? Basically, it's all about profitability as a developer. For all the ways to develop a 10 acre parcel of land, this is a rough approximation of the ranking of their potential profitability...
At this point, most land being developed is not being developed for single family homes because that is not the most profitable way to develop the land. So long as student housing keeps being rented as soon as it is built, and non-student apartments keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses for sale keep being bought before they are built -- it remains relatively unlikely that land in or close to Harrisonburg will be developed for single family homes. I am now accepting recommendations for more cheery perspectives to write about next week. Call. Text. Email. Help! ;-) | |
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All Of The Developments On Boyers Road |
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 Have you heard about that new development on Boyers Road? There are quite a few of them!
Those are all of the major developments I'm aware of along Boyers Road - but who knows what else is to come along this increasingly busy corridor! | |
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More Details On Preston Lake Apartments, Upscale Apartments Just Outside Harrisonburg |
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 If you are in the market for a recently built, reasonably nice, non-student apartment in or near Harrisonburg, the only current option at scale (aside from much smaller developments) is The Reserve at Stoneport -- located catty-corner from the Sentara RMH Medical Center. Prices at The Reserve at Stoneport currently seem to fall in these ranges...
But now there is another option in town -- or there will be soon. Preston Lake Apartments are currently under construction on Stone Spring Road at its intersection with East Market Street. These apartments are owned by and built by a different entity than the developer/builder of Preston Lake the adjacent residential neighborhood where new homes are being built. Prices at Preston Lake Apartments currently seem to fall into these ranges...
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New Condos Available At Founders Way In Harrisonburg, VA |
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 New condominiums are under construction at Founders Way! These brand new condos are located just minutes from downtown Harrisonburg and offer low maintenance living at its best, in close proximity to dining, shopping, the JMU campus and more! Buyers can make selections for cabinets, granite countertops, flooring, paint color and more! Condos at Founders Way feature an open floor plan a large primary bedroom suite and a second bedroom or office with walk in closet and attached bathroom, plus a covered porch! Enjoy high-speed internet access and cable service! View more photos of these new condos here. Find out more about Founders Way here. (I am the listing agent for these condos.) | |
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Last Home To Be Built In Heritage Estates Currently Under Construction! |
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 Heritage Estates is an active adult community located in Harrisonburg, Virginia boasting homes with superb French Country architecture with flowing interior floor plans that are wonderful for entertaining. Owners at Heritage Estates enjoy spectacular views of the Blue Ridge Mountains, the golf course immediately beside Heritage Estates, the community swimming pool, and a maintenance-free lifestyle. And now -- the very last home to be built at Heritage Estates is under construction! The home is under roof and the exterior is complete. The builder (my client... this is my listing) is getting ready to start finishing the interior of the home. If you, or someone you know, was hoping to live at Heritage Estates, this is the last chance to buy a brand new home. | |
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Overbrook Subdivision in McGaheysville, Virginia Slated to Expand To A Total of 230 Homes |
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 Overbrook, a single family and duplex community in McGaheysville, Virginia is expanding. As currently developed - as built homes or platted lots - the neighborhood includes...
The developer is in the process of getting County approval for an additional 125 homes -- some of which will be single family homes and some of which will be duplexes. This will bring the total size of the development to 230 homes. Here's the proposed site plan - where you'll note that the dark green areas are common areas (including a walking trail) and the light green areas are where homes will be built.  | |
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Large Mixed Use Development With 728 Homes (Plus Commercial Space) Planned On 133 Acres Just Outside Harrisonburg |
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 Download the master plan as a PDF here. A 133 acre mixed use development is in the planning / approval process in Rockingham County - just south of the City of Harrisonburg. This development would feature:
This planned development is located just south of the DMV, and backs up to Pikes Church Road. The land needs to be rezoned, slightly (from R-3C to R-5C) for the development as planned to move forward. County staff recommended approval last week and the Rockingham County Planning Commission unanimously recommended approval this week. The next step is for the rezoning request to go before the Board of Supervisors. The developer had previously rezoned the land, in 2009, for a 384 unit residential development. This updated rezoning, 11 years later, would increase the density to 728 units. The developer plans to have common areas for recreational spaces such as turf fields, a playground and walking trails. Download the full packet from the rezoning request here. As a random side note, the developer is seemingly planning to call the development "Bluestone Development" - which might cause a bit of market confusion given the existence of a large neighborhood in Harrisonburg called "Bluestone Hills". Maybe not. I guess if someone says they live in Bluestone, you'll have to ask if that's the City Bluestone or the County Bluestone. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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