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How Much Have Home Prices Increased, Locally, When Adjusted For Inflation? |
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 At first glance (above) the changes in the median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have been CRAZY... with around 10% (or higher) increases in the median sales price every year since 2020. Wow! But... what if we adjust for inflation? The Consumer Price Index is the most widely used measure of inflation, and you'll see what the prices of most things have been increasing significantly over the past few years. Here's the change in CPI during the same timeframe as on the graph above...  As you can see, there were some rather large increases in the Consumer Price Index during 2022 and 2023. Inflation, if you haven't heard, is real and larger than life. So, what happens when we subtract out the changes in CPI from the changes in the median sales price? Let's take a look...  This graph starts to put the most recent price increases in a slightly different context. Yes, there were massive increases in the median sales price (when adjusted for inflation) during 2020 and 2021 -- which was in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. But when we adjust the median sales price (locally) for inflation (nationally) we see that the inflation-adjusted change in the median sales price over the past two years has been staying at 3.6%, not the 10% (+) increase we've seen in real dollars. But, yes, I know... you have to pay for a house with real dollars... and those real -- non inflation adjusted -- prices have been rising quickly. | |
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Our Local Real Estate Market Keeps Testing Basic Economic Theories |
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 Between 2019 and 2022 we saw an ever increasing number of buyers buying homes (or trying to do so) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Demand for homes skyrocketed, mortgage interest rates fell to historic lows, supply increased a bit (new builds) but not a enough... and perhaps unsurprisingly, median home prices increased 10% per year for three years in a row. But then, 2023... Mortgage interest rates have increased 30% over the past year, and have increased 150% over the past two years, making mortgage payments higher than ever. But yet, the median sales price keeps rising. Demand seems to be falling, with 24% fewer home sales in the first eight months of 2023 as compared to the same timeframe last year. But yet, the median sales price keeps rising. Supply is now starting to increase, with 31% more active listings on the market now as compared to a year ago. But yet, the median sales price keeps rising. What comes next!? As I pointed out yesterday, the higher inventory levels are only higher than the Covid-era lows, and are in line with or lower than pre-Covid levels. And certainly, fewer home sales may be a result of fewer sellers selling just as much as it may be a result of fewer buyers trying to buy. So, over the next two years, will we potentially see slower home sales, higher mortgage interest rates, higher inventory levels -- and yet, still see stability and/or increases in the median sales price? Yes, it seems quite possible. Or, could slower home sales, mortgage interest rates and higher inventory levels lead to a decline in the median sales price? This seems more likely, in theory, but we're just not seeing it yet, and I don't know if we'll see it at all. | |
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Recent Rises In Inventory Levels In Context |
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 Inventory levels are on the rise in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. January 2023 = 109 homes for sale August 2023 = 193 homes for sale That's a 77% increase in inventory levels! But... let's put it into a bit larger of a context... Just before Covid began (January 2020) there were 196 homes for sale. So, as shown above, other than during the weird years since the Covid pandemic began (2020-2023) inventory levels have always been above 200 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... and sometimes well above that mark. So, higher inventory levels today do not necessarily mean we will see a marked change in home prices (for example) in our local market, but we'll have to continue to monitor changes in inventory levels over the next few months to see where they go from here. | |
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How Many Homes Are Selling For Less Than The List Price? |
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 If we look at homes that have sold in the past six months... [1] 68% have sold for the list price or higher. [2] 32% have sold for less than the list price. [3] 40% have sold for over list price. Maybe several of these stats surprise you. Maybe none of them do. I think the most surprising to me is that 32% of homes sold for less than the list price. If often feels like buyers are barely ever able to negotiate on price -- and sellers are barely ever willing to negotiate on price. Interestingly, let's look back a year and a half (ish) to 2021 when mortgage interest rates were in the 3.something range...  The numbers here are certainly different, though not quite as different as you might imagine. For all the homes that sold in 2021... [1] 73% sold for the list price or higher. [2] 27% sold for less than the list price. [3] 43% sold for over list price. So... is every home selling over asking price? Nope. Back in the crazy times of 2021, was every home selling over asking price? Nope. | |
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Interstate 81 Through Harrisonburg Will Be Expanded Soon, But Will It Have Sound Barriers? |
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 A nearly six mile stretch of Interstate 81 (from mile marker 242 to 248.8) will soon be expanded to have three lanes of traffic in each direction!
The noise barrier balloting is set to take place in October 2023. In 2024, VDOT will work on acquiring right of ways and will work on relocating utilities. In 2025, VDOT will advertise for construction. The widening of Interstate 81 is anticipated to be substantially complete by December 2029... in about six years. Read all about this I-81 Harrisonburg Widening Project here. | |
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Sample Mortgage Payments In September 2023 |
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 Mortgage interest rates are on the rise... they were 3% two years ago, 6% a year ago, and just above 7% today. Let's see how those 7-ish percent mortgage rates translate into some mortgage payments these days. All of these illustrations are for homes in the City of Harrisonburg, and (since I'm not a lender) they are not offers for mortgages with specific terms... $250K purchase with 5% down = $1,833 / month $350K purchase with 10% down = $2,449 / month $450K purchase with 20% down = $2,850 / month $600K purchase with 30% down = $3,400 / month Working backwards for a moment, if you were trying to keep your mortgage payment under $1500 (for example) you'd be looking at a $205K purchase price with a 5% down payment. With current mortgage interest rates above 7%, it's more important than ever to talk to a lender sooner rather than later to determine how much you can afford in a mortgage payment -- and/or how much you want to spend each month on your mortgage payment. If you need a recommendation for a great local lender, just let me know. | |
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Fewer Homes Are Selling, Though Prices Keep Rising, And Now Inventory Levels Are Rising Too!? |
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 Happy Thursday morning, friends in and around Harrisonburg and beyond! After I process all the data... and create all of the charts and graphs... and doodle on them to notate trends... I then go back and review it all again in order to write the headline of my monthly market report. As it turns out, this month's headline ended up being pretty similar to last month. Fewer home sales... higher sales prices... but also... higher inventory levels. We are definitely seeing some shifts in our local market, though it is not yet clear how significant of an impact those changes will have. But we'll get to all of that real estate data... First, whether you are a teacher, a student, a professor, a school administrator, a staff member at a local college, or a parent, I hope your school year has had a great start. On our end, Luke has started his first semester of classes at Wake Forest and Emily is a few weeks into 10th grade. It has been a fun but busy start to the year, and we're looking forward to visiting with Luke at WFU Family Weekend soon! Secondly, a few listings of potential interest to you... 9926 Goods Mill Road - A modern farmette on 3.3 acres with awesome mountain views in the Spotswood High School district for $575,000. 3986 Dixie Ridge Road - A spacious four (or five) bedroom home with the primary bedroom suite on the main level for $475,000. 3211 Charleston Boulevard - A like-new, upscale townhouse in Preston Lake with a two-car garage with access to many community amenities for $375,000 Congers Creek Townhomes - Three-level, new construction townhomes across Boyers Road from Sentara RMH Medical Center for $306,900 and up. And thirdly, each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places, things or events in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Merge Coffee, Jimmy Madison's and Red Wing Roots tickets. This month I am giving away a $50 gift certificate to a delicious local restaurant, Taste of Thai. I'm writing this report on Wednesday evening... you'll get it Thursday morning... and my writing this evening is powered by one of my go to dishes at Taste of Thai... Massaman Curry. Are you a fan of Taste of Thai as well? Click here to enter to win a $50 gift certificate! And now... on to the data, and charts and graphs...  This first data table above shows much of what we've seen for the past year or so now... [1] We're seeing fewer home sales now than we were a year ago. In the first eight months of this year (Jan-Aug) we've seen 24% fewer home sales than in 2022. If we look only at the summer months (Jun-Aug) we see a slightly larger 30% drop in the number of homes selling. [2] The median sales price continues to rise... it's up 10% in the first eight months of this year (Jan-Aug) as compared to the same timeframe in 2022. [3] Homes are still going under contract rather quickly with a median days on market of six days, which is just a smidge ahead of last year's median of five days. As alluded to above, the summer months were a good bit slower this year than last...  The three lines shown above are as follows... Red = This Year Blue = Last Year Grey = Average of Past Four Years As such, home sales in the summer (+/-) of 2023 were well below the average of the past few years, and even farther below last summer. We saw 102 home sales in August 2023... which is slightly less than we saw in... January 2022. That's actually sort of surprising... a summer month that we would expect to be rather active was slower than a winter month that we would expect to be rather slow. High mortgage interest rates -- we'll get to those below -- likely play a significant role in slowing down the number of homes that are being sold and purchased these days. Now, putting the lower and lower number of home sales in context...  We have seen the number of home sales in a 12 month period drop from about 1700 home sales (summer 2021 through summer 2022) down to only 1300 home sales. But... looking back a bit further, this just takes us back to... where things were at the start of or just before the pandemic. So... yes, we're seeing significantly fewer home sales right now... compared to the significantly higher number of home sales seen in 2020, 2021 and 2022... which were likely high points fueled by low mortgage interest rates and lots of buyers rethinking what they needed in a home during the pandemic and thereafter. And yes, despite the rapid increase (1300 to 1700) and then rapid decrease (1700 to 1300) in home sales, we've seen home prices steadily march on along, upward, during the entirety of the past three years. Looking back a bit further than three years puts the change in median sales price in an even wilder context...  Not too long ago (2017) the median sales price in Harrisonburg Rockingham County was just below $200K. This year (2023) that median sales price is now above $300K. That $100K(+) jump over the course of six years has significantly changed what it looks like to be a first time buyer (or a move up buyer) in our local market. Certainly, the higher mortgage interest rates we have seen in 2023 (and 2022) haven't helped either. The combination of higher sales prices and much higher mortgage interest rates have resulted in much, much higher housing payments for buyers in today's market. Looking for a trend that is heading in two different directions at once? Here's one...  We are currently seeing a downturn (blue bars) in the number of existing homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... while at the same time seeing an increase (green bars) in the number of new homes selling in our market. Higher mortgage interest rates are causing many homeowners to have no interest in selling... which is resulting in fewer existing homes being on the market for sale. Thankfully, there are builders helping to add housing stock in our area, resulting in more new homes selling over the past few years. Shifting gears a bit to the here and now... the freshest data to watch for the most recent trends is contract activity...  Last month we saw an increase in contract activity... with 130 homes going under contract, compared to only 114 in the same month last year. It seemed that maybe we would see a sustained surge of buyer activity. But... maybe not. With only 112 contracts signed in August 2023, it seems that the surge of contract activity in July 2023 was an anomaly, and we will still see smaller numbers of contracts being signed in 2023. Darn. And here's the most interesting graph of them all, in my opinion...  Over the past two months we have seen a significant shift in inventory levels -- the number of homes available for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. For most of this year (red line) we have seen even fewer homes for sale than last year (blue line) but that all changed in July 2023. Over the past two months we have seen inventory levels build up beyond (above) where they have been for the past several years. These higher inventory levels are resulting in... [1] Buyers have slightly more choices of homes to go view. [2] Homes sometimes staying on the market a bit longer than before. [3] Many sellers seeing fewer showings than they expected. [4] Plenty of homes not going under contract in the first few weeks. Will higher inventory levels eventually translate into a higher number of home sales, bringing inventory levels back down? Maybe. Will higher inventory levels eventually lead to some sellers being more flexible on price, and a leveling out of the median sales price, or even a decline in the median sales price? Maybe. I'll continue to monitor inventory levels with interest as higher inventory levels can start to make it a slightly more favorable market for buyers than it has been for the past few years. As already mentioned in this report, despite higher inventory levels, we're still seeing prices rise... and most (50%+) homes are still going under contract quite quickly...  Just to translate the graph above into words... over the past six months the median "days on market" of homes that have sold was five days. Of note... that only measures the median days on market for sold homes... not those that are still on the market for sale. Furthermore, this is just a median -- it's not saying that all homes are going under contract in five or less days. As per how a "median" calculation works... 50% of homes are going under contract in five or fewer days... and 50% are going under contract in five or more days. And finally... I have mentioned higher mortgage interest rates so many times in this market report that you're probably wondering how high they are...  They are QUITE high... higher than they have been in many years... higher than they have been in several decades. It seems quite possible that mortgage interest rates will edge back down below 7% in the coming months... but I'm guessing we'll see mortgage interest rates above 6% for the next year or two. These higher mortgage interest rates significantly affect housing costs for buyers making a decision to buy in today's market. If mortgage interest rates were lower, we would likely see more sellers being willing to sell, and more buyers able to and interested in buying. And just like that, we've breezed our way through all of the charts and graphs I have for you today. My advice to buyers and sellers is relatively similar to recent months gone by, but I'll reiterate it here... Home Buyers -- You might be able to wait a day (or even two) to go see a new listing now, but don't assume that many or most will be there three or four days after they hit the market. Plenty of homes are still going under contract very quickly, particularly those in more desirable price ranges, locations, etc. Talk to a mortgage lender to understand your potential housing costs and get going to see some new listings as they hit the market. Home Sellers -- All homes won't go under contract within five days. Your home might be on the market for a few weeks or even a few months depending on it's condition, location, price range and other attributes that are appealing to either a wide or narrow pool of buyers. Price your home competitively, prepare it well for the market and market it thoroughly and professionally and you should still have success in securing a contract with a buyer -- but it won't necessarily happen overnight like it seemingly always was over the past few years. If you have a real estate question... reach out anytime. It's never too early to have an initial chat about your possible plans to buy, sell or move. I'm happy to provide feedback and input to help you think some things through and make a plan for your housing transition when you're ready to do so. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 (call/text) or by email here. | |
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Major Travel Center Proposed To Include 75,000 SF Building, 673 Parking Spots, 120 Gas Pumps, 24 Tesla Chargers Just Outside Mount Crawford |
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 (The Buc-ee's shown above is a photo of a similar travel center - not a rendering of the proposed travel center.) This is old-ish news now, but I have still been getting questions about where the Buc-ee's will be located, so here's a bit of context for those who are interested... A major travel center is proposed to be built just outside Mount Crawford, on Friedens Church Road, along Interstate 81, across from the entrance to the Walmart Distribution Center...  Here's the potential layout of the site...  Download an info packet from the County related to the special use permit for the Buc-ee's sign here. | |
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If Your Home Has Not Sold We Should Look At What Buyers Are Actually Buying |
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 As an aside... the market is definitely shifting in some ways... as we are no longer seeing every house go under contract in hours or days with multiple offers. We're still not seeing prices adjust, overall, but some homes are sitting on the market longer than they would have over the past few years. That nuance aside... let's say your house is listed for sale, and it just hasn't sold after 30, 60 or 90 days. How should we think about that? What information would be helpful in understanding why your house has not sold? I believe context is key here... [1] How many buyers have contracted to buy homes that are similar to your house since your house has been on the market. If you are selling a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2000 SF home -- let's look at how many buyers have contracted to buy 3 - 4 bedroom, 2 - 3 bathroom, 1800 - 2500 SF homes in the same timeframe that you have been trying to sell your home. Have lots of buyers contracted to buy similar homes? Or just a few? How have the prices of those other homes compared to your list price? [2] How many other sellers of similar homes are trying to sell their homes right now? If you are selling a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2000 SF home -- let's look at how many other sellers are trying to sell a 3 - 4 bedroom, 2 - 3 bathroom, 1800 - 2500 SF home right now. Do you have lots of competition? Or not very much? How do the list prices of those competing homes compare to your list price? -- As the local housing market continues to shift over the coming months it will be important to understand the context in which you are selling your home and making sure you are pricing and marketing your home in a way that will give it the best chance to sell relative to what buyers are buying and what other sellers are trying to sell. | |
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Home Buyers Might Not Request Showings Of Your Home With Minutes. Gasp! |
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 Looking back, one of the humorous things about the (crazy) real estate market in 2020, 2021 and 2022 was how quickly buyers would jump on every new listing when it hit the market. When I would launch a new listing for sale via the MLS, Realtor.com, Zillow, local and national websites, Facebook, etc. -- I would invariably start getting showing requests within the first 15 minutes. It was surreal how quickly home buyers were responding to new listings, running out to go see them that very first day that they were listed for sale. After all... there would often be 20 - 30 showings within the first three days, and 5 to 15 offers within the first three days... so it's not surprising that the showing requests would roll in so quickly. But now, it's back to pre-Covid normals, at least in this regard. When a new listing is launched, I will often have a showing request or two within the first few hours or on that day -- but my phone doesn't immediately blow up with texts from buyer agents in that first 15 minutes any longer. Certainly, the speed at which showings are requested, and the number of showings that are requested varies by price range, location and more -- but the requests aren't starting off quite as quickly as they were during the Covid era. | |
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Going, Going, Gone. Make An Offer Before That House Is Under Contract. |
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 Home buyers aren't making decisions quite as quickly these days. That doesn't mean that homes aren't going under contract as quickly -- they often are -- but individual buyers aren't making decisions about whether to make an offer on a house quite as quickly as they have over the past few years. As a result, sometimes buyers are missing out on buying houses for new reasons. Over the past few years buyers often missed out on houses because there were multiple offers on most new listings and they were always competing with other buyers. What I am finding in the current market is that some buyers are missing out on houses because they are waiting a bit too long to make a decision to make an offer. How could this be? Aren't sellers waiting days and days for offers to roll in before they consider moving forward with one? Sometimes. But not as often as in 2021 and 2022. If a seller has 10 showings and four days later they receive their first offer -- they might decide to wait a few days to see what other offers might roll in -- or they might just sign the contract and move forward with the buyer who went ahead and made the offer. So... if you go to see a house that you like, and you're thinking about making an offer but you haven't done so yet... realize that it could very quickly become unavailable if a seller receives a reasonable offer. I don't think all buyers need to universally speed up their decision making process... but they should realize that many sellers are currently more likely to move forward with a favorable offer rather than let it sit for a few days in hopes of receiving additional offers. | |
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Price Changes, Even If Small, Can Remind Buyers That You Really Do Want To Sell Your Home |
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 Consider these two listings that a buyer might be considering in today's market... Home #1 A home priced at $435K that has been on the market for 75 days without a price change. Home #2 A home priced at $425K that has been on the market for 75 days and... [1] was initially listed for $439,000 [2] was reduced to $435,000 after being on the market for 30 days [3] was reduced to $429,000 after being on the market for 45 days [4] was reduced to $425,000 after being on the market for 60 days Certainly, buyers are going to see a $10K difference between the two homes ($435K vs. $425K) but they are also likely going to believe that the sellers of the second home are more motivated to sell. A seller who has priced their home at $435K and who hasn't budged at all is likely more motivated to sell for a particular price than they are motivated to make sure that their home sells. A seller who has made several price adjustments to their home over time is signaling to potential home buyers that they are definitely motivated to sell and want to be sure that their home will sell. | |
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Does It Make Sense To Wait To Buy A Home? |
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 Given high home prices and high mortgage interest rates, does it make sense to wait to buy a home? As usual, maybe yes and maybe no. Let's start with maybe no, you shouldn't wait to buy a home... [1] If you are waiting to buy a home because you want to wait until home prices come down, that might be a long wait. I can't guarantee that home prices will be stable or will increase forever, but there aren't any current signs that we should expect to see home prices declining in the next year or two so that it would make sense to wait until that time to buy. [2] If you are waiting to buy a home because you want to wait until mortgage interest rates get back down to 4% or 5%, that might be a long wait. With current mortgage interest rates at 7%, I understand the sentiment of wanting to wait until they drop back down somewhat -- but I wouldn't recommend waiting for them to get all the way down to 4% or 5% -- or even 6% for that matter. Mortgage interest rates may very well stay at or above 6.5% for the next year. But... maybe you should wait to buy a home... [1] If you are waiting to buy a home because you aren't comfortable with the mortgage payment on the home you'd like to buy -- that makes a LOT of sense. You need to be comfortable with the long-term financial commitment of buying a home. While home prices and mortgage interest rates might not decline over the next few years -- your income and savings might go up -- getting you to a place where you are more comfortable with a home purchase. So... should you wait to buy a home? Maybe. It depends on your overall financial picture and your plans and goals for the next few years. If you'd like to talk any or all of that through as you contemplate a possible home purchase, just let me know. | |
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Developing Patience When There Will Not Instantly Be A Buyer For Every Listed Home Any Longer |
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 One of the strangest things over the past few years was how nearly every listing had a buyer (or buyers) in very short order once it hit the market. Inexpensive home - of course, lots of interest. Expensive home - still, lots of interest. House with an odd layout - sure, still interest House with a steep driveway - no problem, we are interested House needing repairs - yep, the interest is there And on, and on, and on. Almost every listing would receive nearly immediate attention and typically would see multiple offers within the first week it was on the market. It certainly made it easy to assume your home would sell quickly once it went on the market. Nearly every home was. Now, however, some home sellers are discovering that there is not going to instantly be a buyer for every home that is listed for sale. Certainly, plenty of homes will still see immediate response from buyers, and an offer or offers within days of hitting the market -- but not all homes. Thus, some sellers will have to readjust to a slightly longer time on the market. Just because your home does not go under contract in the first week or two does not mean that we will never find a buyer who wants to buy your time. For the past few years I told every buyer they needed to be patient because they might miss out on quite a few homes before landing a contract on one. Now I am telling at least some sellers that they will need to be patient while we wait for the right buyer for their home to show up on the scene. | |
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August Contract Activity Was Slower Than In Recent Years |
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 We are seeing fewer home buyers signing contracts to buy homes right now... compared to the past few years. The graph above shows the numbers of homes that went under contract in the first 28 days of August for each of the past six years. The 101 contracts signed in the first 28 days of August 2023 is decidedly lower than the contract activity seen in August 2020, 2021 and 2022 -- though most of those years were much more active than normal given COVID-induced buyer enthusiasm and super low mortgage interest rates. As such, it is not totally surprising to see us return to around 100 contracts signed in August, which is the average of how many we saw in August 2018 and August 2019. With mortgage interest rates around 7% right now, I expect we will continue to see slower months of contract activity as we continue into and through the fall months of 2023. | |
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Yes, Mortgage Interest Rates Are Still High. |
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 The current average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.23%. That is the highest it has been in over 20 years. Actually... 22 years, it seems. The last time it was higher was back in June 2001 when it was 7.24%. What lies ahead? Per this NY Times article... "Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain elevated for at least a few more months. And even when they start to come down, they are expected to settle well above the 3 percent rates that home buyers enjoyed during the early stages of the pandemic." ...and... "The Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry group, recently forecast that the average 30-year mortgage rate would fall to 5 percent by the fourth quarter of next year." So... hopefully these historically high mortgage interest rates (that followed some historically low mortgage interest rates) will eventually start to decline again... but we're not seeing it yet. | |
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Yes, We Seem To Be Back In A Time When Some Offers Might Be Under The Asking Price |
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 Many homes are still going under contract quickly, often with multiple offers. But not all homes. I know it's hard to believe after the past few years of craziness in our local real estate market -- but some homes are actually going under contract below the list price. Between 2020 and 2022: You want to pay less than list price!? Ha ha ha ha ha ha. You're so silly. Now: Let's see whether they have had many showings and if they have any offers. If a few days or a few weeks have passed and the house is still available, yes, we may very well be successful with making an offer under the list price. That's all on the buyer side. On the seller side... it's more important than ever to price your property appropriately for the market. | |
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Home Buyer Demand Is Becoming Much More Variable By Price Range, Property Type And More |
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 Between 2020 and 2022, despite record levels of buyer demand, I would still tell sellers... We can't know for sure how much buyer demand will exist for your home until it is actually on the market and we can see how many times it is being viewed online, how many people are driving by to look at your home, how many people are scheduling a showing etc. During those three years (2020-2022) it seemed that regardless of the property type, location, price, condition, etc., once the house was listed for sale we would have lots and lots of showings and multiple offers. Detached home i great condition with main level master bedroom = 10+ buyers ready to buy. Older home that hasn't had any renovations or updates in 25 years = 10+ buyers ready to buy. Townhouse with small bedrooms = 10+ buyers ready to buy House on a busier than average road = 10+ buyers ready to buy House with a steeper than average driveway and yard = 10+ buyers ready to buy For a few years there, regardless of what home you were selling, you could count on there being plenty of buyers, right out of the gate, and your home would almost certainly be under contract very quickly. This seemed to have been partly related to buyer demand far exceeding the supply of homes for sale -- and perhaps even more significantly -- related to super low mortgage interest rates. Now, home buyer demand is much more variable by price range, property type, size, location, condition, and much more. You can no longer count on absolutely and certainly having lots of showings and multiple offers within a week. Some sellers will still see this. Some particular combinations of property type, location, price range, condition, features are still resulting in lots of early interest and the potential for multiple offers. These sellers don't think the market has changed. ;-) Some sellers will definitely not see this. Some properties will have some early interest -- but no offers -- or very little early interest. What should such a seller do? First, don't panic, it's not that nobody wants to buy your home. Second, be patient, let some time pass and see if you start seeing enough traffic (online views, drive bys, showings) to suggest you'll receive an offer. Third, consider adjusting the price (at some point) to attract further buyer interest. To those sellers who have not yet listed their home for sale -- we won't actually know what camp you'll be in (early offers vs. no early offers) until your house is on the market for sale. | |
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Fewer Home Sales, But Prices Are Rising!? More Contracts But Inventory Levels Are Rising!? |
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 Happy Monday afternoon to you, friends! This monthly market report is one of some enigmas, some contradictions, some puzzlement. Some of these will be familiar, some new, some unrelated to real estate... [1] How can it be that we are seeing fewer home sales, but higher prices!? [2] So, contract activity is increasing, but inventory levels are also rising!? [3] How can I feel so young, yet have a son heading off to college this Friday!? :-)  Indeed, Luke heads off to Wake Forest University this Friday! We are tremendously excited for this next step in his life and educational journey, but we will miss him and his friends greatly as they head off in new directions. Swiveling quickly back to real estate before I spend too much time thinking about the aforementioned major life transition (!!) I'll point you towards a few of my current listings that might be of interest... 9926 Goods Mill Road - A spacious home / farmette on 3.3 acres with wonderful mountain views in the Spotswood High School district. $585,000. 150 Autumn Bluff Drive - A like-new, upscale, custom-built, single-level home in Autumn Breeze on a large corner lot. $445,000. 1210 King Edwards Way - A four bedroom home in the City with an attached two car garage and a large back deck. $389,500. 3211 Charleston Boulevard - An upscale townhouse in Preston Lake with a two-car garage with access to many amenities. $375,000 Congers Creek Townhomes - Three-level, new construction townhomes across Boyers Road from Sentara RMH Medical Center. $306,900 and up. And finally, before we get to the real estate data... Each month I offer a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places, things or events in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Jimmy Madison's, Red Wing Roots tickets and The Little Grill. Now, then, on to the data. You can likely skim this chart of data rather quickly to get a sense of what I'm going to say...  Regardless of the timeframe outlined above... [1] We are seeing fewer homes selling now than in the recent past in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Year to date (Jan-Jul) we have seen a 23% drop in the number of homes selling as compared to last year. [2] We are seeing higher and higher sales prices in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Year to date (Jan-Jul) we are seeing a median sales price that is 11% higher than a year ago. Here's a month-by-month visualization of those slower sales we're seeing this year...  The grey line above shows the average number of home sales per month between 2019 and 2022. You'll note that a typical trend is to see more and more home sales (closings) as we move from April through June before starting to see things decline a bit in July. The blue line above shows last year, when April, May and June were well above where we might have expected them to be. Then, there's this year... the red line. We just haven't seen the typical boost in home sales during April, May and June that we would usually expect to see. In fact, July was the third month in a row of between 110 and 120 home sales. So, this year is not a typical year. We are experiencing a much lower spring and summer in the local real estate market. Why, you might ask? Likely because of mortgage interest rates -- which are quite a bit higher than over the past few years -- and because there aren't as many homeowners selling their homes. Stacking all of those months on top of each other, you can see how this year compares to previous years, thus far...  Clearly, this year seems unlikely to come anywhere near the level of sales seen over the past few years (2021 and 2022) and we're likely to finish out the year with fewer home sales than in 2019 and 2020 as well. Here's an illustration of that puzzling increase in sales prices and decline in the number of homes selling...  This is, as some of you would undoubtedly point out, both puzzling... and not. Typically, if demand decreases, sales decrease, and prices decrease. But despite fewer home sales (as shown above) we are not seeing prices decline. Which means... we are not seeing a net overall decrease in demand... but rather... a decrease in supply. So long as home prices keep climbing, I think the decrease in the number of home sales can be almost entirely attributed to fewer sellers selling. Given fewer homeowners being willing to sell, we're likely going to need new construction homes to fill in the gap to help meet buyer demand...  Overall, over the past few years, we have seen new home sales (green bars above) increasing. After only 219 new home sales in 2020, that climbed to 405 in 2022... leading to one in four (26%) homes selling being new homes. We are still seeing similar (75% / 25%) numbers this year. During that same timeframe (2020-2022) we saw a decline in existing home sales... from 1,276 existing home sales in 2020 down to 1,159 existing home sales in 2022. I expect we will see even fewer existing home sales in 2023 based on data from the first seven months of this year. Now, here comes a surprise this month...  Last year we saw a month after month decline in contract activity as we moved from May through July. This year we started to follow that same trend as we saw fewer home sales in June that in May. But, then, July. Contract activity was quite a bit higher than I expected it would be in July 2023. In fact, this was the month with the largest number of contracts signed thus far in 2023. And yet, two other indicators keep me scratching by head a bit...  Despite that uptick in contracts being signed in July 2023... the number of pending (under contract) homes followed its normal seasonal trend of declining slightly between May and July. There are (as shown above) 252 homes under contract in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County right now... which is lower than a month ago (261) and lower than a year ago (297). Furthermore...  Despite lots of homes going under contract in July... inventory levels jumped up quite a bit (131 to 177) in a single month's time. This brings current inventory levels to the highest point that we have seen anytime in the past year. I'll take a closer look at some of these overall trends in the coming days to try to dial in whether there is another story to be told and understood. For now, it's clear that there are quite a few more listings on the market now than anytime of late. Moving through the next few months, it will be interesting to watch... [1] Will inventory levels bounce back downward after buyers have a chance to contract on some of these new listings? [2] Will we see more price reductions on listings as sellers have slightly more competition from other sellers in some price ranges and with some property types? [3] Will we see homes staying on the market longer than they have in the past? I don't know that we need to instantly jump to any conclusions about this increase in inventory levels, but the data over the next few months will help color in the picture of whether we are seeing any sort of a transition in our local housing market. Speaking of median days on the market... is it starting to rise?  Mmmm... nope. Most homes (at least half of them) are still going under contract very quickly (in six days or less) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This metric will continue to be helpful to gauge whether buyer enthusiasm is slowing at all in the local market. What could slow buyer enthusiasm, you ask? How about those mortgage interest rates!?  Don't look too far back on the chart above or you'll note that 2.8% mortgage interest rate two years ago. Wow! Even if we ignore the first year (first half) on the chart above, we still see a significant increase in mortgage interest rates over the past year... from 5.3% to 6.8%. We still aren't seeing any relief in sight with mortgage interest rates. Yet. I am hopeful that we move through the remainder of 2023 we'll start to see mortgage interest rates settle down a bit... but I'm guessing they will almost certainly stay above 6%. So, given all of the data above, what should you be thinking about if you are a home buyer, seller or owner? Home Buyers -- Many new listings are still seeing plenty of action... so you very likely may still find yourself in a competitive offer situation... but not always. Understand how current mortgage interest rates affect your potential monthly mortgage payment... and get out there quickly to see new listings. Home Sellers -- You might talk to friends who saw their home go under contract within three days with multiple offers. You might talk to other friends who have had their home on the market for three or four weeks without an offer. Both of those market realities currently exist... and it varies based on price range, property type, location, and many other factors. We need to take a close look at your corner of the local real estate market to devise a reasonable and realistic pricing and marketing strategy for selling your home in a timeframe that suits your needs. Homeowners -- Enjoy your ever increasing home value. If you're talking to a friend who is trying to buy a home, don't mention your mortgage rate, or how glad you are that you already own a home. ;-) And... that's all for today. I hope that the remaining days or weeks of your summer break (if you had one) are enjoyable, and that the start to the school year goes well for you if you are a parent, teacher or administrator. As always, feel free to reach out to me if I can be of any assistance to you as you make plans to buy or sell. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 (call/text) or by email here. | |
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Adjusting Our Thinking About Time On Market |
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 For the past three years we have seen most homes going under contract very quickly. The median days on market (# days between list date and under contract date) has been at or below seven days for 33 out of the past 36 months. But now, some properties seem to be lingering on the market a bit longer than they might have over the past few years. A few related thoughts come to mind based on recent conversations with a variety of sellers, future sellers and fellow agents... [1] The median was always just the median - not the all. :-) When the median days on market was five days -- which it was for about a year -- that didn't mean all homes were going under contract within five days -- it meant that at least half of them were. Thus, there were plenty of homes that were taking longer than five days to go under contract. [2] In the six months leading up to the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, we were seeing median days on market between 14 days and 21 days. As such, if (or when) we see the median days on market figure start to drift upwards there is a lot of room for it to rise before it gets to levels we were seeing prior the past 3.5 crazy years. [3] Flipping backwards five (and six) years -- the median days on market was 29 days (in the 12 months leading up to and including July 2018) and was 42 days (in the 12 months leading up to and including July 2017). [4] It will be a jarring reality for some (or many) home sellers over the next few years if it is taking a month or two for houses to go under contract -- instead of just a week or two. [5] If or as the market continues to adjust relative to how quickly homes are going under contract -- we are going to have to adjust our thinking about "time on market" -- and realize that just because a house isn't under contract within a week, or two, or three -- that doesn't mean it's a terrible house that nobody will ever want to buy. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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