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What To Do When Comparable Sales Tell Two Very Different Stories |
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![]() When we are preparing to get your house on the market for sale we will looking together at a market analysis of your home to determine a pricing strategy. I will start by looking for the most similar homes that have sold in the recent past (usually 6 to 12 months) to give us guidance on what price a buyer might pay for your home. Oftentimes, these similar homes (comparable sales) will all fall neatly in line... House #1 - very similar, sold for $425K House #2 - a bit newer and a bit larger, sold for $450K House #3 - a bit older and a bit smaller, sold for $400K As you might guess, these three comparable sales would suggest that your home will sell for $450K. But... sometimes the comparable sales don't provide as clear of guidance... House #1 - very similar, sold for $425K House #2 - very similar, sold for $415K House #3 - very similar, sold for $400K ...and... House #3 - smaller, sold for $475K House #4 - smaller, sold for $485K House #5 - smaller, sold for $505K When we start to see a greater degree of variance in the prices for which comparable homes sold, and when they don't all point to the same general price point for your house, pricing your home can be come a bit more challenging. Do we pick the most optimistic (highest) comparable sales to price your home? Do we pick the most conservative (lowest) comparable sales to price your home? When this happens, we will need to look through the data together in detail to determine which comparable sales we believe are the most comparable, and thus the most applicable in estimating the value of your home in the current market. It's great when we have multiple data points all converging on a single value for your home -- but it is not always that simple or clear cut. | |
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I Would Not Be Disappointed To Miss Out On This House If Someone Wants To Pay That Price |
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![]() Sometimes you'll absolutely LOVE a new listing... but not the asking price. You might believe it's a fair price for the house... it's just more than you would want to pay. Or... you might think the price is too high for the house. Regardless, you don't want to pay the list price for the house. Maybe you'd pay $20K or $30K less than the list price... but you wouldn't pay the list price. In such a situation, most buyers conclude that while they might or might not make an offer... they won't be disappointed if a buyer comes along that is willing to pay the list price for the house. A helpful perspective to consider as a buyer is whether you would be disappointed if someone else other than you gets to buy the house. | |
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Home Sales, Contracts, Off To A Slightly Slower Start In January 2025 |
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![]() Happy SNOWY Wednesday, friends! After a solid eight inches about two weeks ago, we had another six inches yesterday! Some even say we might have another snow next week!?! This has been a particularly snowy winter! Here's a snowy view on the east side of town earlier this morning... ![]() Beyond the snow, though, we're more than a month (almost a month and a half) into 2025 and I'm taking a look back at the first month of real estate data to see what trends we're seeing thus far this year. Now then, on to some tasty morsels of data from our local real estate market... First up, the latest trends through the end of January 2025... ![]() While not highlighted above, you might note that we saw a 15% drop in January sales this year (80) compared to last (94) -- though January sales exceeded 2023 levels (76). More on January sales later. When we look back at the past three months (November through January) we see a 22% increase in the number of home sales taking place as compared to the same timeframe a year ago. This is accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price. If we look at a longer timeframe (12 months) we will find only a 9% increase in the number of homes selling -- but a 5% increase in the median sales price. Combine these two trends and it would seem that we might be seeing an acceleration in the number of homes that are selling-- but a slowing in the rate at which prices are increasing. Jumping for a moment to detached homes only... ![]() When we look at detached homes only (excluding townhomes, duplexes and condos) we find only a 15% increase in sales over the past three months (compared to a year ago) whereas there was a 22% increase in overall sales. Thus, it shouldn't surprise you to see the following in the attached market... ![]() In contrast to the 15% increase in detached home sales between November and January, here we see a 40% increase in attached home sales! That's a significant jump! There has also been a 22% increase in attached home sales when looking at the past 12 months (compared to the 12 months before that) compared to only a 4% increase in detached home sales. So... we're seeing more of an increase in attached home sales this days as compared to detached home sales... but that could be a result of so many attached new homes being built. Here's a look at new home sales... ![]() Over the past 12 months we have seen 389 new home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which marks a 29% increase from last year. Whereas in the existing home market (everything except new homes) we're seeing... ![]() In contrast to that 29% increase in new home sales, we're only seeing a 3% increase in existing home sales. Why could this be? Well... new home builders are happy to keep on building new homes, but it's not too surprising that homeowners (would be sellers of existing homes) are only so excited to sell, because... 1. Many such homeowners have low interest rates on their current mortgages... which would be replaced with higher rates on a new mortgage. 2. Despite likely have plenty of equity in their existing home... they would have to spend even more on a replacement home. As I just someone I was chatting with... if you like the home you own and if it's working well for you... don't sell! :-) Peeking in on the two main geographic areas I cover... ![]() The City of Harrisonburg has seen (gasp) a 3% decline in home sales over the past year. It's actually even more stark when looking back two years where you would see a cumulative 33% decline in home sales. One of the reasons why home sales are decreasing (happening less frequently) in the City of Harrisonburg is because there aren't many new homes being built in the City. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County... ![]() In contrast to the 3% decline in home sales in the City of Harrisonburg... there has been a 14% increase in home sales in Rockingham County. We could note, though, that the 1,059 home sales in Rockingham County over the past 12 months is actually a bit (6%) lower than two years ago. Now, on to some graphs, starting by showing January 2025 in context... ![]() Indeed, the 80 home sales seen seen in January 2025 was a good bit lower than the 94 home sales seen last January... as well as lower than the average (95) of January sales over the past four years. Good news, though, the 80 home sales in January is likely to be the lowest month of home sales for all of 2025! Looking at a slightly broader context for our overall market... ![]() Home sales increased in 2024 compared to 2023... and that increase seems likely to continue in 2025. After four years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) of a 10% or greater annual increase in the median sales price... we only saw a 5% increase in the median sales price in 2024. At first glance, the graph above would seem to indicate that prices are starting to decline... but it's too early for that decrease ($345K to $341K) to mean much as we only have 80 sales prices in that median thus far in 2025. Now, I hesitated to say that January home sales were slower than expected because of snow -- since January sales are based on December contracts -- and the snow has taken place in January. But we can potentially blame the snow for this following graph... ![]() Only 97 home buyers and sellers signed contracts in January 2025... compared to 108 last year... and compared to a four year average of 117 for the month of January. Why did only 97 buyers and sellers sign contracts in January? Perhaps because everyone was too busy shoveling snow? But seriously... the winter weather has delayed plans for some sellers to list their homes for sale... which delays a buyer's potential contract to buy said home. TBD if further winter weather will continue to impact the winter real estate market. Oh, right, it is winter - I suppose the snow is reasonable. :-) Next up, pending sales, the number of homes that are under contract waiting to go to closing... ![]() We are seeing a normal-ish amount of homes currently under contract for this time of year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The 243 homes currently under contract is certainly lower than the 270 homes under contract a year ago, but I believe this lower number is a result of fewer homes being on the market for buyers to buy. To reinforce that theory, take a look at inventory levels now versus a year ago... ![]() A year ago there were 182 homes on the market for sale... today... only 140 homes. This is a significant year over year decline. We might see a slight uptick in homes for sale as we get towards the spring market, but it is also quite possible that buyers will continue to contract to purchase those new listings as soon as they are listed for sale. Finally, as referenced earlier, current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage interest rate on any homeowner's current mortgage might be a part of why some sellers are not selling... ![]() Despite mortgage interest rates (between 6.5% and 7%) seeming high compared to many homeowner's mortgage interest rate on their current mortgage -- these 6.5% to 7% rates seem to be the new normal range that we may be experiencing for the indefinite future. Looking back over the past two years, while we saw a few months above or below that range, mortgage interest rates mostly remained in that range. So... given all of that data on our local real estate market and the current mortgage interest rate environment, what should you keep in mind as we continue through 2025? If you will be selling your home, you are likely to continue to see solid buyer demand depending on your price range, property type and location. It will be important to price your home appropriately as most buyers' budgets will be limited by 6.5% to 7% mortgage interest rates. Listing your home for sale sooner than later might give you the opportunity to have less competition from other sellers, but waiting until spring is a reasonable strategy as well if that timeline better fits your overall plans. If you will be buying a home, go ahead and get preapproved with your favorite lender (ask if you need a recommendation) so that you are ready to make an offer when we find the right house for you. It's possible you will be directly competing with other buyers in a multiple offer scenario depending on where you want to buy, what you want to buy and your budget. Don't be discouraged by currently low inventory levels - there will be plenty of new listings hitting the market as we move into spring. If you found the information in this market report to be helpful, but you have a few more questions about your segment of the local market, or about your house, or about the buying process or selling process, feel free to reach out anytime. I'm here to help. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. I'll send you another update on the local housing market in March. Maybe, possibly, we'll be past all of the snow by then!?! | |
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One Final Home Improvement To Complete The Overall Impression Your House Offers |
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![]() Sometimes almost every aspect of your home tells a single narrative... Hopefully it's not a narrative of... "This house is falling apart and needs to be completely remodeled." :-) More often, it is a narrative of... "This home is very well maintained and has a lot of character and I can tell that the owners have made nice improvements over the years." But sometimes... there is just ONE more improvement that is needed to complete that narrative. It might be a fresh coat of paint in a few rooms... or replacing one or two light fixtures... or freshening up the landscaping right in front of your house... or painting the faded front door. If your house looks MOSTLY well put together and well maintained... and ONE final improvement would complete the narrative, it is likely worth taking the time to make that improvement. | |
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Pricing Your Home With A Very Old Roof |
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![]() So... you are getting ready to list your home for sale... and your roof is 32 years old. Woah! Most architectural shingles have an average lifespan of 25 to 30 years. If your roof does not have any leaks, and thus you don't want to replace the shingles before selling your home, how should you think about pricing your home? Side note - You had three roofers come by and the average quote for replacing your roof is $20K. Now, let's imagine these three other very similar homes in your neighborhood have sold in the past six months... Home #1 - new roof, sold for $475K. Home #2 - five year old roof, sold for 470K. Home #3 - eight year old roof, sold for $470K. So, can you assume your house will also sell for $470K to $475K despite the very old roof? Probably not. Most buyers will realize that your roof is beyond it's expected lifespan and will factor in the cost of roof replacement when they consider the price they are willing to pay for your house. Given that it will cost approximately $20K to replace your roof, buyers will likely want to pay between $455K and $460K for your house. So, you could... [1] price your home for $475K (the price of the house with the new roof) and hope for the best [2] price your home at $465K ($10K less than the price of the house with the new roof) and hope that is enough of a discount for a buyer. [3] price your home at $455K (the cost of the roof replacement lower than the price of the house with the new roof) and be very confident that most buyers will find your house to be very fair I will likely recommend we consider strategy #2 above - but we will want to examine how much competitive buyer interest there is in your price range. | |
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With Few Homes On The Market We Should Go Look At Homes That Seem Close To Ideal |
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![]() You can learn a LOT about a home for sale these days without going to see it inside via...
As such, some would be home buyers eliminate houses from consideration just from what they are learning via research on their phone, computer, or from behind the steering wheel. Eliminating some houses from consideration based on learning this variety of information makes sense -- so long as you are not accidentally eliminating ALL homes from consideration. Given that there aren't many homes on the market at any given time these days, if you find that you are eliminating all homes from consideration for one reason or another just based on your online review of the property information - perhaps we should go visit the next few "maybe" houses in person. Walking through a house that is close to ideal, but probably not perfect, can be helpful... 1. It might be more perfect than you realize. 2. It might cause you to adjust your priorities or goals. So, as we head towards the spring market, if you are hoping to buy a home and find that you are eliminating every home before going to see it -- let's go look at a few just to see if you come to the same conclusion about them. | |
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Just Because LOTS Of New Listings Will Be Coming In March Does Not Mean You Need To Wait Until March To List Your Home |
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![]() We typically see a significant surge of new listings in March in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. For whatever reason, lots of sellers typically wait until March to list their home for sale instead of doing so in February. The reason for waiting might be... 1. To wait until the weather warms up a bit. 2. To aim for a late spring closing. 3. To hopefully start seeing some signs of life in the yard or garden. Or maybe... 4. Because that's what all the other sellers are doing. Just because lots of homeowners will wait until March to list their home for sale doesn't mean you should wait too. Listing your home for sale in February will often lead to an equivalent or higher amount of buyer interest due to having less competition from other sellers. So, if you're waiting to list your home until March -- arbitrarily -- perhaps we should make plans to get it on the market in February instead! | |
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An Early Look At January 2025 Contract Activity |
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![]() It's early in the year still... we shall not draw any conclusions yet about whether 2025 will be a busy or not busy year in the local real estate market compared to the last few years... but... As shown above, only 92 contracts were signed (by buyers and sellers) in January 2025 -- which is the slowest January since 2019. To be fair, January 2025 was an odd month... we had a lot of snow, and it stuck around much longer than snow usually does in the Harrisonburg area. So, perhaps we'll see some of the usual January contract activity showing up in February this year instead. Stay tuned! | |
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Site Work Has Begun For Townhouses, Apartments On Corner Of North Main Street, Mount Clinton Pike |
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![]() Dirt is moving for the construction of townhouses and apartments on a development located on the corner of North Main Street and Mount Clinton Pike. The original plan referenced 60 townhouses and 34 apartments... ![]() You can now see that layout reiterated on the Harrisonburg GIS... ![]() | |
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Construction Underway On Valley View Village Apartments On Reservoir Street |
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![]() Dirt is moving and a construction is underway on the first apartment building at Valley View Village on Reservoir Street, a development planned to include 420 one, two and three bedroom apartments. Here's the original planned layout... ![]() Here's a map for context... ![]() Here's a closer view of the site showing the first few buildings where construction is underway now... ![]() | |
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New, Large, Upscale Apartment Complex, The Wentworth, Progressing On Stone Spring Road |
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![]() Construction is moving right along on a new apartment complex on Stone Spring Road planned to include approximately 271 apartments. Here's where these new apartments are located... ![]() Per the Wentworth website... [1] Studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom and three-bedroom apartments will be available for lease. [2] Amenities will include a four-story clubhouse, pool, fitness center, golf and sports simulator, dog spa, EV car charging stations, game room and movie theater - plus, a multi-purpose court, tot lot, dog park and more. [3] Apartments will be available during Summer 2025. The Wentworth will include seven separate buildings of apartments with the largest building pictured above, closest to Stone Spring Road. ![]() | |
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New Chipotle, With Drive Through (?!) Coming To Stone Port! |
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![]() Do you see what I see? There will soon be a new Chipotle in town... in Stone Port... seemingly with a drive through!?! Here's the location... ![]() | |
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Median Sold Price Per Square Foot Keeps On Rising |
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![]() In addition to watching how the median sales price changes over time, it can be quite insightful to see how the median price per square foot of sold homes changes over time. The graph above tracks the median price per square foot of single family homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past 10 years. A few things to note... [1] The median price per square foot has consistently been increasing year after year for the past decade. This should not be surprising, as we're seeing that same trend in the median sales price. [2] The three years with the largest increases in the price per square foot were 2020, 2021 and 2022. Again, likely not surprising due to the large gains in median sales prices during those years. [3] The median price per square foot has been increasing more slowly over the past two years (2023, 2024) which also mirrors smaller increases in the median sales price. [4] We are now approaching a median price per square foot of $200! [5] Perhaps most importantly -- this metric is most helpful in understanding value trends over time -- not in calculating the value of one particular property. This median price per square foot is the mid point of many very different homes -- new homes, old homes, homes with garages, homes without garages, homes with basements, homes without basements, homes with acreage, homes on small lots, etc. A median price per square foot can be more helpful in understanding the potential value (or value range) of a single property if we pull that median value based on a smaller data set of more properties more similar to the single property. Looking ahead, I suspect we will continue to see increases in the median price per square foot, but I believe they will be closer to 3% to 5% per year and not 10% to 15% per year over the next few years. | |
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You Will Want To Have A Lender Letter The Day BEFORE Your Ideal Home Is Listed For Sale |
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![]() We're headed towards the spring market soon. Yes, I know there is still plenty of snow piled up that has yet to melt -- but hey, this week we're going to see high temperatures in the 50's -- it will feel like springtime for sure! Back to real estate, though, many buyers have a casual conversation with a lender to make sure their overall financial picture looks OK, but never get to the point of obtaining a pre-approval letter. And then... the house that they have been waiting months and months to purchase finally comes on the market for sale. What is said buyer to do? They'll need to hope that they can get that pre-approval letter in time to make an offer on the house they really (really) want to buy. So, if you plan to (or hope to) buy a home this spring, please, please go ahead and get a pre-approval letter now or very, very soon. You'll be putting yourself in the best possible position for pursuing the house you hope to buy if you already have your pre-approval letter the day BEFORE that house comes on the market.
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Is This The One, Or Should I Wait For A Better House To Be Available? |
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![]() This is a common question at this time of year -- as new listings start to trickle onto the market -- but before the likely faster pace of new listings in March and April. As a buyer in a low inventory environment, you (hopefully) know that you may have to compromise on some of what you're hoping for in your next home. Otherwise, you may be sitting here a year from now, still not having moved forward with a home purchase. But how much (!!??!!) should you compromise -- that is the tough question at this time of year. Let's imagine you've been in the market since Halloween, and you haven't seen ANYTHING that would work for you in November, December or January... ...when a new listing pops on the market in February that *could* work -- sort of -- but would requirement some relatively major compromises in areas A, B and C -- what do you do?? Do you go ahead and move forward with the purchase because it is much better than anything we've seen in months? Do you commit to buy because you're just tired of waiting around and you want to get this home buying show on the road? Do you decide to wait and then kick yourself a few months from now when we haven't found anything better for you to buy? These are not easy questions to answer -- but we can and should and will talk it through on a house by house basis. We'll be evaluating how far off the mark the house really is -- and how likely we think it is that another, better, option will come on the market in the coming months. | |
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If You Own A Rental Property, And A Tenant Moves Out In 2025, Will You Rent It Again, Or Sell It? |
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![]() Owning a rental property can be a great long term strategy for building wealth... [1] Real estate values generally increase over time, increasing the value of your rental property. [2] A tenant pays down the mortgage for you. [3] Rental rate typically continue to increase over time, but a mortgage payment often stays primarily level beyond adjustments in taxes and insurance costs. But... at some point, you may decide you want to reallocate your investments into something that is even more passive than owning real estate. Many months (or years) of owning a rental property may just involve collecting rent checks... but your time, energy and money might also be spent on... [1] Property improvements between tenants. [2] Seeking new tenants and paying a mortgage during any vacancy between tenants. [3] Keeping up with exterior property maintenance such as replacing a roof, replacing a deck, updating landscaping and power washing. [4] Updating systems such as a new heat pump, new water heater, new appliances and more. So, if a tenant moves out of your rental property in 2025, will you rent it again, or will you sell it? Let me know if you'd like to chat about the advantages of going one direction or the other based on your overall financial situation, goals and objectives. | |
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So You Have A Bunch Of Credit Card Debt AND A Bunch Of Equity In Your Home? |
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![]() I ran into a friend a few weeks ago who told me about some of the financial moves he made over the past few years and how glad he was that he made them. While I don't know the particular details of his situation, the following will give you a general idea of what we were chatting about and might be some actionable information for you or someone you know. A few years ago he and his wife found themselves in this situation... [1] They owned a home with quite a bit of home equity. [2] They had a good bit of credit card debt. Many homeowners are in scenario #1 right now -- the median sales price increased by 10% or more for multiple years in a row in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. If you have owned your home for five or more years you likely have quite a bit of equity in your home. Some homeowners are also in scenario #2 -- with a good bit of credit card debt on which they are paying interest every month. If you're carrying a balance on a credit card you are often paying 20% or more as an interest rate on that debt. What did they do when they found themselves in this situation? They tapped into the equity in their home and paid off the credit card debt. While this didn't immediately wipe out any debt, it moved the debt from a credit card (likely with a 20% or higher interest rate) to a mortgage (with a drastically lower interest rate)... which saved them significant interest costs every month... allowing them to start paying off their debt more aggressively. A few caveats and notes... [1] Certainly, it was an even better time to do this a few years ago when mortgage interest rates were below 4%. But... current mortgage interest rates of 7% are still drastically lower than a 20% credit card interest rate. [2] You'll need to consider whether you are refinancing your entire mortgage into a larger mortgage -- or whether you are opening an equity line on your home and keeping your current mortgage. If your current mortgage has a super low (below 4%) mortgage interest rate you probably won't to try to keep that if you can. This is not one size fits all financial advice here... everyone's situation is unique... but if you a homeowner with significant equity in your home, and you are carrying credit card debt from month to month... you might want to explore your options for restructuring that debt to lower your interest costs. Nobody told my friend to do this - he figured it out himself - and wondered why nobody had told him. So, here's me, telling you. I'm not a financial advisor, but I'm happy to talk any of those sorts of scenarios through with you and to point you to other resources that might be of help to you. | |
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As A Reminder, We Will Need To Sign A Buyer Brokerage Agreement Before We Go See Houses |
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![]() Since 2012, written buyer brokerage agreements have been required in Virginia. Since 2024, they must be signed prior to going to see a house together. So, even if we're just getting started in exploring your home buying options - before we go see a house, we'll need to review and sign a buyer brokerage agreement. What will that buyer brokerage agreement outline? 1. Our duties and obligations to each other as I represent you in pursuing the purchase of a home. 2. The specific house or types of houses I will be helping you explore. 3. The term (start and end date) of the agreement. 4. The compensation you will pay for my services. If you'll be buying a home soon, let's review a buyer brokerage agreement together sooner rather than later so that you'll know what I'll be asking you to review and sign before we go view our first house. | |
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Who Is Winning In Our Local Real Estate Market In 2025 |
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![]() Who is winning in our local real estate market in 2025? SELLERS are enjoying life with plenty of buyer interest, ever higher sales prices, homes usually going under contract quickly when they hit the market, and relatively low levels of competition from other listings. The only downside of the current market for sellers are the (relatively) high mortgage interest rates that could hold back even further or stronger buyer interest. BUYERS aren't really loving any aspect of the local housing market right now. Lots of buyers are buying which means more competition, prices keep going up, home go under contract quickly, inventory levels are low reducing options at any given time, and mortgage rates continue to stay above 6% and close to 7%. HOMEOWNERS are able to largely ignore most of the factors affecting the local housing market - though they are almost certainly happy to see continued increases in median sales prices, which mean likely further increases in their home's value as well. Will you be a buyer or a seller in 2025? How are you feeling about the market? | |
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Monthly Housing Costs Over Time, Plus Adjusted For Inflation |
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![]() Above you can track average monthly housing costs in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over time, with some pretty large caveats. This graph is based on the median sales price each year, assuming a buyer finances 80% of the purchase price with the average mortgage interest rate of that year, and the monthly costs include an estimate for insurance and property taxes. This chart is not showing the average housing cost of everyone in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over time -- it is showing the monthly housing costs for buyers buying homes in each of the years in the graph. If you bought a home in 2014 with a fixed rate mortgage, your housing costs have likely stayed relatively level over the past decade other than adjustments for insurance costs and real estate taxes, both of which are a minority of the total housing cost. You might note that this graph shows monthly costs spiking significantly between 2021 and 2024. In fact... they nearly double between 2020 and 2024. Here's where we need to consider inflation. The inflation rate was quite higher in 2021 and 2022 which caused housing costs (and the cost of many other items) to increase significantly. Certainly mortgage interest rates were also rising during this time, but we can't ignore the impact of inflation alone. Here is the annual inflation rate during the same timeframe as in the graph above... ![]() And now, let's adjust those housing costs for inflation, so that each year's housing cost is in 2020 dollars, to see how much housing costs have adjusted over time over and above how inflation has changed... ![]() Here you can see that housing costs have still increased quite significantly over the past few years, but not quite as much as the non inflation adjusted data would have you believe. It seems unlikely that home prices are going to decline - so the best bet for housing costs leveling off would be lower mortgage interest rates. Most economists are not predicting significant downward adjustments in mortgage interest rates in 2025. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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