Happy Monday Morning, Friends!

It's just a few days until Red Wing Roots, a family-friendly music festival in Mt Solon, VA... will you be there?  It's a wonderful weekend of great music, great people, great food in the great outdoors... plus so much more... hiking, biking, games and so on!  Get your tickets today, and I hope to see you there!

It's been a busy few weeks for the Rogers, starting off with Emily graduating high school!!!

That excitement was followed by a fun family trip to Arizona where we explored Sedona, the Grand Canyon, Lake Powell, Horseshoe Bend, and a pretty incredible slot canyon called Antelope Canyon...

But... we're back in the Valley now... which is much greener than Arizona!

A few more quick items before we take a look at the latest market data...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month, enter to win a $50 gift card to Rita's where you can try out some Italian Ice and Frozen Custard!  Enter the giveaway here.

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If you're thinking about buying or selling -- now or down the road -- I'm happy to chat. Reach out anytime by phone or text at 540-578-0102, or by email.

Now, let's take a look at the latest data and trends in our local housing market.  It's Monday morning, so we're going to fly right through quite a bit of data to get you on with your day a bit more informed than when you started.

First, we're seeing more sales, but not higher prices...

We saw more sales this May than last May (138 vs. 133) and over the past 12 months we have seen a 7% increase in the numbers of homes that are selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  But... the median sales price has dropped by 1% from $348K to $345K.  

But... worry not... that downward shift in the market-wide median sales price is largely a result of a decrease in (higher priced) detached homes and an increase in (lower priced) attached homes.

Here you'll see the breakdown just for detached homes...

As noted above, we've seen 4% fewer detached home sales over the past 12 months as compared to the prior 12 months... but... the median sales price of those detached homes has increased 3% compared to the market-wide 1% decrease in median sales prices.

So, what about the attached homes?

Hey, hey... there has been a 27% increase in attached home sales over the past year (!!!) and a 2% increase in the median sales price.  As noted above, it's this big increase in the number of attached homes that are selling that is causing the market-wide median sales price to dip slightly.

Let's take a peek (graphs now - yay!) at the first five months of 2026...

After we moved past January (remember snowcrete?) the market heated up... with more home sales in each month of 2026 than the same month the prior year.  That trend persisted through May... can it make it to June?  

Here's another look at the overall market, both the median sales price and the number of home sales...

We're starting to see steady increases in the number of overall sales (though it's mostly attached homes) and the median sales price remains flat (largely because of all of those attached home sales).  I suppose it's worth noting that most of the new homes that are being built these days are also attached homes.

Breaking things down by detached vs. attached again...

The median sales price is still slowly rising when looking at just detached homes... up from $388K two years ago to $399K this year... though that is a much slower pace of growth than we saw between 2018 and 2024.

And how about those attached homes...

After multiple years of massive increase in median sales prices (particularly between 220 and 2023) we have seen median sales prices of attached homes flatten out over the past several years.

Looking ahead now, contract activity actually slowed down a bit in May...

We saw strong contract activity in March and April of this year, compared to last year, but things slowed back down in May.  Most months of June are even slower than May, so we are likely to see fewer than 132 contract signed in June.

The number of homes currently under contract is also a bit lower than expected...

We usually see a slight decline through the end of May in the number of homes that are under contract (waiting to go to closing) but things slowed down a bit more than normal over the past month. 

And yet... even with a smaller number of contracts, and fewer homes under contract... inventory is not rising...

A year ago we saw inventory levels rise considerably between April and July... but that trend does not seem likely to repeat itself this year.  Inventory levels stayed steady over the past month, so today's buyers have about the same number of homes to choose from as they had a year ago.

And how about how long it's taking for homes to go under contract?

Median days on market spiked during the winter... but has settled back down again over the past few months.  It's hard to know how much of that was a seasonal increase in the days on market... and whether we will see that start to shift up again when we get to next fall/winter.

Finally, what are those mortgage interest rates doing these days?

Mortgage interest rates have risen over the past three months from just below 6% to just above 6.5%... which is no fun for buyers hoping to flex their budget a bit.  That said, rates are currently lower than they were a year ago.

So... after having rapidly digested all of that data, what are the key trends to know?

1.  Home buying activity is on the rise.

2.  Prices appear flat, but are actually rising, very slowly.

3.  Inventory levels remain limited.

4.  Homes are starting to sell a bit more quickly.

Here are some key takeaways for buyers and sellers as we enter the summer market, based on the data above...

If you're buying: Don't wait on rates, move quickly on homes you love, and don't expect to pay well under list price on a reasonably priced home.

If you're selling: Price it right from the start, make sure your home shows well, and know that serious buyers are out there right now.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or have other questions about the local real estate market... I'd be happy to chat. 

You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here.

Have a wonderful week, and maybe I'll see you on the Music Meadow this weekend at Red Wing!