Happy Monday Morning!

There is plenty to discuss this month related to our local housing market.  Per the headline - the market is certainly cooling in some ways, based on changes in pending sales and inventory levels - and yet, home sales and prices are still relatively stable in many segments of our local market.  Read on for more details.

But first... I hope your October is moving along splendidly!  

It has been a bit of a whirlwind on my end... staying up until nearly midnight on Saturday night to cheer on JMU Football in their sixth win of the season... spending time with family visiting from out of town... having a delightful time with Emily while she was home for fall break (reading days)... running in the Harrisonburg Half Marathon... heading up to MD for my 30 year high school reunion... visiting my brother and family in VA Beach... and much more!  It's been a full few weeks, but full of so many things I enjoy.  Now, I'm just trying to catch my breath as we head towards the latter half of October...

Before we take a look at the market data...

Each month I offer my readers a chance to win a gift card to a local coffee shop, restaurant or other fun destination.  This month you can enter to win a $50 gift card to Black Sheep, home of some of the friendliest baristas in Harrisonburg. :-) Click here to enter to win.

Each weekday I send out an email with my thoughts, insights and commentary on buying and selling homes in Harrisonburg, the latest new developments, and more.  If you'd like to learn more about our local market, and the buying and selling process, subscribe to my daily newsletter here.

If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, I'm happy to chat.  Reach out anytime by phone or text at 540-578-0102, or by email.

Now... what is really going on in our local market!?

September was a bit of a conundrum...

We saw 12% fewer home sales in September... but a 1% increase over the past six months and a 3% increase over the past year.

The median sales price increased 6% in September... but has only increased 1% when looking back six months, and less than 1% when looking back a year.

So... despite recent slow downs in sales, the longer term trend still points towards slightly more home sales, but perhaps flat or flattening sales prices.

Let's peek in on just detached home sales...

When looking just a detached homes... ignoring duplexes, townhomes and condos...

We have actually seen 3% fewer home sales over the past year (instead of 3% more as shown in the overall market) and an increase of 3% in the median sales price (despite less than a 1% increase in the overall market).

Thus, despite slightly fewer detached homes selling, the prices of those homes still seem to be rising, albeit slowly.

How about if we look at detached and attached home sales, but just resales...

This (existing home sales) can be a second helpful indicator of the health and status our local market... and here we see that despite a slower (-11%) September, we're seeing that same 3% increase in the number of existing homes selling as was seen in the overall market... and, oh... the median sales price of existing homes has risen 3% over the past year.

So, definitely some conflicting signals as to the trend in the number of home sales and their sales price in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Which, brings me to an important note that applies this month and every month...

Just as I would not encourage you to draw conclusions about your home's value or how quickly it would sell based on headlines pertaining to the national or state real estate market... you likely also shouldn't draw too many such conclusions based on overall Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market data.  To understand the price at which your home will potentially sell, and how quickly that may come to pass, we must dive into an even tighter segment of the market based on property type, location, size, age and price.

But, back to those local metrics to observe some big picture local trends...

September 2026 was the second month in a row of (somewhat) surprisingly low home sales.  In those two months last year there were a total of 249 home sales... whereas there have only been 232 home sales this year.  This isn't a huge drop... but it's the first two months this year that we have seen fewer home sales than during the same month the previous year.

Zooming back out a bit to look at a longer term trajectory...

Here you can see that price growth in the overall market has stalled.  The median sales price has been hovering around $345K to $349K for three years now.  But... keep in mind that is the overall market including detached and attached home sales.... which can be affected by how many of each property type sells in any given year.

Here's a look at the same metrics for just detached homes...

This is a visual of what was described in the charts earlier.  The median sales price of a detached home has actually continued to (slowly) rise over the past year... up from $390K in 2025 to $405K today.  This is certainly a different growth trajectory than what was seen between 2019 and 2023... but it is important to note that the median sales price of detached home has not flattened out as much as the overall market-wide median sales price.

Now, then, let's look at contract activity...

If your house has been on the market for the past few weeks, or the past few months, and it is not under contract yet - the graph above probably won't surprise you.  Contract activity has been slower for the past four months (Jun - Sep) than during those same months last year.  We started to see things pick up their pace a bit in September, but not by much.

If you think back to (or scroll up to) the monthly home sales chart you'll recall that closed sales were slower in August and September -- which was largely the result of contracts being slower in June and July.  Thus, the slower months of contract activity in August and September will likely lead to slower months of closed sales in October and November.

And... after four months of lower numbers of contracts being signed, this also should not be a surprise...

Pending home sales - the number of homes that are under contract - has declined for the past five months.  Two quick comparisons to put it in context...

1.  In April of this year, 316 homes were under contract and headed towards closing - whereas today, only 184 homes are under contract.

2.  Taking seasonality out of it, a year ago 280 homes were under contract and headed towards closing - whereas today, only 184 homes are under contract.

So, yes, fewer buyers (and thus sellers) are currently signing contracts to buy (and sell) a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - leading to lower levels of pending sales - which will lead to a smaller number of closed sales, which could also lead to...

We have seen steady increases in inventory levels (the number of homes available for sale) over the past three months, which correlates closely to the smaller number of buyers (and sellers) signing contracts and the smaller number of pending sales.

However... the 239 homes currently available for sale is only slightly (not drastically) above the 214 homes available for sale a year ago at this time.

Finally, then, one of the causes for these recent changes in trajectory in our local market...

The average 30 year mortgage interest rate has increased from 6% to 7% in just seven months... and has actually increased to 7.4% since the end of September.  Higher mortgage interest rates result in higher potential monthly payments for purchasers... which understandably, might slow down the pace of buyers signing contracts to buy homes.

So, what are you to make of all of this data and these latest trends?

1.  More inventory means more options and possibly more room to negotiate.

2.  Get preapproved now and watch rates closely, since they’ve reached 7.4%.

3.  Look at homes that have sat a while, where sellers may be more flexible.

1.  Price competitively from day one. Buyers have more choices as inventory climbs.

2.  Expect a longer time on market, as contract activity has slowed for four months.

3.  Base pricing on your specific segment, not overall market headlines.

And if you're just thinking about buying or selling in the near future, and want to talk through what all of this means for you, just let me know.  You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here.

Enjoy the balance of your October... and may it be full of fun times with family, friends and activities that bring you fulfillment and joy!