Happy Monday morning, friends!  

It's not quite mid-August, but summer is starting to feel like it is coming to a close for many... with students, and parents, and teachers preparing for the school year ahead.

I hope you have had an enjoyable summer full of both adventure and moments of relaxation.  

Time at the lake does that for me... thrilling adventures during the day with water skiing and wake surfing... and quiet, peaceful morning sunrises before the activities of the day have begun.

Before we jump into the latest trends in the local housing market...

Each month I offer my readers a chance to win a gift card to a local coffee shop, restaurant or other fun destination.  This month you have the chance to win a $50 gift card to Coffee Hound, a coffee shop in downtown Harrisonburg.  Enter to win the gift card here.

Each weekday I publish an email newsletter with my thoughts, insights and commentary on buying and selling homes in Harrisonburg, the latest new developments, and more.  If you'd like to learn more about our local market, and the buying and selling process, subscribe to my daily newsletter here.

Now, let's dive into the latest real estate trends in our local market...

When looking at all residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we find more sales, but flat prices.  

Home sales are up across the board, with 10% more home sales in the past six months compared to the same time a year ago.  But... the median sales price is basically stuck... no change over the past six months and actually down 1% when looking at the past 12 months.  

Buyers are showing up in larger numbers, but prices are not currently pushing higher right now... though, when we look at detached homes and attached homes separately, we'll notice some slightly different trends.

Dialing in to only the detached homes we see that July was a big month, with 34% more detached home sales than last year - contributing to a 9% increase in home sales over the past six months.  But... the median sales price has only risen 1% over the past six months and over the past 12 months.  Do note, this is slightly more upward movement than when we look at the overall market of detached plus attached home sales.

Switching over to attached homes, we see a lot more upward momentum here in buyer activity... with 11% more home sales over the past six months compared to the prior year, and a 17% jump when looking at 12 months of data.  But... the median sales price has dropped 2% when looking at the past six months compared to a year ago.  So, stronger growth in the number of home sales, but prices that are slipping a touch.

With plenty of new housing going up in our area, it's helpful to look just at new home sales, where we find a 3% increase in the number of homes that are selling, but a 5% decline in the median sales price.  It's important to note that this may be a result of a changing mix of what types of homes are selling, rather than a decline in values.

The existing home sales category is where we're gaining the largest increase in overall sales volume... with 18% more home sales in July, and 13% more home sales over the past six months.  The median sales price of these existing homes is also up 1% over the past year.

When considering all of the data above, it seems reasonable to conclude that we're seeing consistent growth in the number of home sales taking place in our local market, but that prices are currently relatively flat with very slow growth (1%) in the median sales price.

Thus far, 2026 is tracking right along the normal season curve of monthly home sales, and has been ahead of last year's curve for all seven months of the year thus far.  Having now passed through the most active months of May and June, we should expect to see July-like home sales over the next three months.

The 821 home sales we have seen through July is the strongest year-to-date start in four years.  The increased volume of home sales began in January and has been building ever since.  It seems likely that we will see more than 1,400 home sales in total in 2026.

As discussed previously, we're seeing steady growth over the past year in the number of homes that are selling... up from 1,328 per year to 1,429 per year.  Prices, however, are stagnating overall, but when viewed within a few more defined sectors (detached, attached, existing) we see slight (1%) growth in prices.

Prices climbed steadily, and quickly, between 2018 and 2024, but have leveled off considerably since that time.  This new trajectory (much slower growth) between 2024 and 2026 is likely what we should expect over the next one to two years.

This will be an interesting trend to watch -- we saw far fewer signed contracts (98) in July 2026 than we saw (127) last July.  Since contracts today become closed sales in a month or two, this pullback in contract activity will likely roll into somewhat lower months of closed sales in August or September.

And yet, inventory levels are not climbing.  With a drop in contract activity, it wouldn't be surprising to see inventory levels starting to creep up... but we're not.  Current inventory levels (186) are well below where we were (248) a year ago.  Thus, the lower number of signed contracts might be at least somewhat related to smaller numbers of sellers being ready to sell, rather than a smaller number of buyers being ready to buy.

Mortgage interest rates settled all the way down to about 6% in early 2026... but have risen back up to 6.66% over the past six months... about where we were a year ago.  The temporary relief buyers experienced earlier this year has faded, and it is not clear if that will return in the near future.

The Big Picture

Sales volume is having its best year in four years, with 821 homes sold through July, outpacing every year back to 2023. But that activity hasn't translated into meaningfully higher prices. The rolling 12-month median has actually eased from $349,000 to $345,005, and every home type (detached, attached, new, existing) shows prices either flat to only slightly up.

For Buyers

Even though sales prices aren't climbing at 10% a year (or even 3% a year) you are still dealing with relatively high home prices, and interest rates that can make a monthly mortgage payment feel like a stretch.  Be patient in waiting for a home that fits you will, and will for years to come, and then be ready to act quickly and decisively.

For Sellers

This is a market where pricing accurately matters more than it has in years past. Homes are selling in high volume, but buyers aren't stretching to pay more as readily as they were between 2020 and 2024. Price your home realistically off of recent comps, present the home well, and be ready to move forward with a strong and reasonable buyer.