Happy Monday morning.. and Happy belated Father's Day to all the dads!

We're nearly halfway through 2025 now, and below I'll give you an update on the latest data and trends in our local housing market.  

But first... 

[1]  If you haven't snagged a ticket for Red Wing Roots Music Festival... do so now... the fun kicks off this Friday, June 20 at Natural Chimneys in Mt Solon, VA.  I'll be out there all weekend... see you out on the music meadow!  Buy your tickets (3-day or 1-day) here.

[2]  Speaking of Red Wing, one of the many great food vendors is Kline's Dairy Bar... and this month I'm giving away a $50 gift card to one of the readers of this market report.  Enter to win here. I'm hoping Lemon Gingersnap is one of the flavors at Red Wing again this year.  :-)

[3]  Learn more about our local housing market a little bit each day... subscribe to my daily email newsletter to hear more about buying, selling, the market, new developments, and more.

[4]  If you will be selling your house soon, or if you are starting to consider a home purchase, I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.  

And now... let's get into a bit of data.  Quite a few charts, and some graphs, and I'll throw in my comments and perspectives as we walk through them.

First, the overall market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

I have (much) more highlighted above than I'll actually reference below.  Some things I am noticing in this big picture overview of our local market...

[1]  We are seeing fewer home sales over the past six months than were seen a year ago at the same time.

[2]  We're seeing low single digit increases (1% to 3%) in the median sales price regardless of the time horizon we consider. 

[3]  Homes are selling (going under contract) just as quickly now as they were a year ago.

When we zoom in on only detached homes, we find relatively similar trends...

When considering only detached homes, we find...

[1]  A 16% decline in home sales in 2025 compared to 2024... whereas we were seeing a 13% decline in the overall market.

[2]  The median sales price over the past 12 months is up 7% from the prior year... compared to only a 3% increase in the overall market.

Whereas when looking at only attached homes...

When looking just at the attached home sales market...

[1]  There have been 15% more attached home sales over the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months... while there has only been a 3% increase in the overall market.

[2]  While the overall market has seen a 3% increase in the median sales price over the past 12 months... attached home sales have only seen a 1% increase in the median sales price.

So... in summary, thus far...

[1]  Fewer home sales in 2025 than in 2024... though the decline has been sharper in detached homes.

[2]  Small increases in median sales prices of late... though the increase has been larger in detached homes.

Some buyers are shopping based on City vs. County... be that for the school system, or other geographic factors.

So, let's look just at trends in the City of Harrisonburg...

Some of these stats for the City of Harrisonburg jump right out at me...

[1]  We've seen 28% fewer home sales thus far in 2025... compared to only a 13% decline in the overall market.

[2]  We're seeing an 8% increase in the median sales price over the past 12 months... compared to only a 3% increase in the overall market.

We were seeing fewer detached homes... and a stronger increase in those median sales prices... and the same thing is occurring with City home sales.

Now, looking at Rockingham County....

In contrast to the City, here's what we're seeing in Rockingham County...

[1]  Fewer home sales (-8%) are happening this year in the County... though that isn't as much of a slowdown as we are seeing (-13%) in the overall market.

[2]  The median sales price in Rockingham County has only increased 1% over the past 12 months... compared to a 3% increase in the overall market.

So... just as the attached home market wasn't quite as squeezed... and prices didn't pop quite as much... we're seeing the same thing in Rockingham County.

Finally, let's see what's happening with new home sales lately...

When it comes to new home sales...

[1]  Fewer new home sales are happening thus far in 2025... note the 17% decline, compared to a market-wide 13% decline.

[2]  The median sales price of new homes has actually dipped 2% over the past 12 months... compared to a 3% market-wide increase.

Keep the two changes above in context, however, given that the availability of new homes can fluctuate based on construction schedules... and the median price of new homes can vary based on what products are being built and sold.

And how about those existing (resale) homes...

When it comes to existing home sales...

[1]  There have been 11% fewer sales thus far in 2025 than last year... pretty close to the 13% market-wide decline.

[2]  The median sales price has risen 6% over the past 12 months... compared to the 3% increase for all homes.

So, just like detached homes and City homes, existing homes are harder for buyers to find... and prices are rising more quickly.

Now, some graphs, for all the visual learners, me included...

Has 2025 been a slow (slower) year for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  Yes, yes, it has been.  

Each month thus far in 2025 has shown fewer home sales (red line above) than the corresponding month in 2024 (blue line above) and it doesn't seem likely that we will see that change anytime soon.

Here's the cumulative impact of five months of fewer sales...

Each of the past three years has seen more home sales in the first five months of the year (610, 500, 549) than we have seen this year (480) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Thus, extrapolating a bit, we are almost certain to see fewer than 1,227 home sales in 2025 by the time we get to the end of the year.

Next up, here's a slightly clearer look at trends in how many homes are selling and the prices at which they are selling...

On the top half of the graph you'll see that there has been a 4% increase in the median sales price over the past year... but that's down from an 8% increase the prior year.

On the bottom half of the graph, the annual pace of home sales is technically trending upwards (1,276 to 1,319) but we have seen steady declines in this annual pace of sales over the past five months.

Here's another view of a new trajectory for the median sales price in our area...

Lots of caveats here before anyone jumps to any conclusions...

[1]  The 2025 median sales price is just for January through May, whereas the 2024 figure includes all 12 months of last year.  We'll likely see more of a year over year increase in median sales prices by the end of the 2025.

[2]  Are sales prices and/or home values flattening out in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  They're certainly going up more slowly than they have been... but as explained a few different ways earlier on... it varies greatly based on location and property type.

[3]  Will we see a decline in the median sales price in 2025?  I don't think so, but I'll keep monitoring the data and will keep you informed.

Next up, contract activity... the best leading indicator of the next few months of closed home sales...

Nothing too wild or crazy to report here (just wait for the next graph!?!) when we look at contract activity.  Yes, April and May contract activity was slower in 2025 than it was in 2024... but not by much.  I expected we would see contract activity jump up in April and May (compared to March) and it did.

And now... the most surprising (and/or puzzling graph) this month...

Wait, what!?!  

Inventory levels (the number of homes on the market for sale) are quite a bit higher this month than any month in any recent year.  

We had seen inventory levels steadily climb between January and March... but only right back to about where they were in March last year.  

Now, we might be seeing a different trajectory... more homes for sale... or maybe it's just a one month blip.  Stay tuned!

Finally, the graph that isn't that surprising at all...

Those silly mortgage interest rates.  They go up a bit, they come down a bit.  They're still sticking between 6.5% and 7%... and I don't expect that they will leave that zone anytime soon.  Thus, I don't recommend waiting around for a 6% interest rate before you move forward with a purchase, if you're otherwise ready to buy.

The local housing market in 2025 is undeniably slower than last year, especially for detached homes and properties within the City of Harrisonburg. We're seeing fewer sales across nearly every segment -- but prices, while not surging, are still inching upward in most areas. Inventory is starting to climb, which could lead to more options for buyers in the coming months. All that said, market dynamics continue to vary significantly based on property type and location!

Buying Soon?

Be Ready: With homes still going under contract quickly, it’s smart to be pre-approved and ready to act when the right home comes along.

Explore All Options: Attached homes or those in the County may offer more availability and slightly less price pressure.

Don’t Wait for 6% Rates: Mortgage rates are holding steady between 6.5% - 7%. Waiting for lower rates might just mean paying more for the home.

Selling Soon?

Price Thoughtfully: Buyers have more choices now in some locations and price ranges. Pricing your home accurately is key to attracting interest quickly.

Presentation Matters: With more competition, the presentation and marketing of your home is key to making it stand out.

Detached Home Owners, Take Note: The home you will be selling remains in high demand, especially in the City - so a well-prepped listing is likely to still generate very strong interest.

Have a wonderful week!