The Influence Of Mortgage Interest Rates On Who Will Buy Or Sell
Scott P. Rogers
Mortgage interest rates -- and whether they are high, or low, or higher, or lower -- are not the only or even the primary factor affecting any given real estate market -- but they do play a role.
Between May 2019 and March 2022, when 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates were below 4%, many (many!) buyers were pulled into the market. They were eager to buy a home while the cost of money so low. They were excited by how much house they could buy within their budget. They were delighted by how low of a mortgage payment they would have based on these low rates.
Since September 2022, while 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates have been above 6%, many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, unable or unwilling to pay the mortgage payment that would be associated with purchasing a home and financing it at 6% or 7% or 8%. The pool of would-be home buyers has shrunk considerably AND the pool of would-be home sellers has shrunk as well. Homeowners who might sell are reconsidering selling as that would often involve paying off a mortgage with a rate below 4% and then financing a new purchase with a rate above 7%.
But... looking ahead... will rates have to get all the way back down to 4% or below to spur a solid increase in the number of buyers in the market? Maybe not.
Mortgage interest rates have now been above 7% for two months. It seems likely that they could stay above 7% well into 2024.
But when rates do start declining -- at some point -- home buyers will likely start returning to the market in solid numbers as they decline.
We were below 4% for three years... so 6% and 7% seem quite high.
If stay above 7% for a year... then 6% won't seem bad at all!
Whether mortgage interest rates are high or low seems to mostly be understood or felt within a recent context of where rates have been for the past year or two.
Just as current (above 7%) mortgage interest rates are keeping some or many buyers out of the market -- I suspect once we get back down into the 6% range we will likewise start to see buyers pulled back into the market and sellers considering the sale of their home after all.
