How Is Coronavirus Affecting How Many Buyers Are Buying Homes In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County?
Scott P. Rogers
Is Coronavirus slowing down home buyers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? It seems it may be, somewhat, but it's probably too early to make any definitive conclusions.
Based on the graph above...
- More buyers signed contracts in January 2020 than in either of the past two months of January.
- More buyers signed contracts in February 2020 than in either of the past two months of February.
- We usually (based on 2018 and 2019 data) see around 131 buyers sign contracts in March -- but only 117 buyers signed contracts this past March. That is an 11% decline in buyer activity.
Here's another graph that shows looks at the cumulative number of home buyers who signed contracts through the entire year in 2018 and 2019, and thus far in 2020...
Above, you'll note that 2020 is still ahead of 2018 and 2019 when looking at the sum of January through March -- but that 2020 is drifting back downward towards 2018 and 2019.
And, plenty disclaimers...
- It's possible that I have slightly under-reported March 2020 home buying activity, as some properties that went under contract in March might not be marked as such in the MLS yet.
- It's possible that some of the properties currently under contract won't go to closing based on buyers having financing issues related to Coronavirus, such that the 2020 number might be slightly higher now than it will be when looking back in a few months.
- The majority of changes to our every day lives (no school, work from home, stay at home) have happened in the past few weeks. We might see suppressed seller activity (fewer sellers listing their homes for sale) over the next month which could result in slower buyer activity even if the buyers are really still out there.
Anyhoo - lots of data, lots of possible conclusions, lots of caveats, and lots to continue to monitor over time.
If you're thinking of buying or selling this Spring, let's chat about what makes sense from a timing perspective given continually changing market dynamics.
