Will Single Family Home Sales Ever Return to 2016 Peak?

I actually asked the same question last year.  Thus far, the answer is still -- NO -- detached homes might not (??) ever (??) return to their 2016 peak.  Actually, I don't completely hold to that conclusion, but read on for a moment.

After three years straight (2013, 2014, 2015) of seeing a *very *consistent number of detached homes in the City and County (813-819) there was a 20% increase in 2016 to 978 home sales!

But then, in 2017 -- sales of detached homes fell 10% to 884 sales.

This could have partially been an inventory issue -- with fewer and fewer homes available for buyers to purchase -- but I have recently concluded that home sales can remain stable even with declining inventory levels.

So -- getting back to it -- will we return to that 2016 peak of 978 detached home sales?  Or will we beat it and hit 1,000 detached home sales at some point soon?  We did see a few years of those sales levels in 2004 (1024 sales) and 2005 (1025) but that was amidst the real estate BOOM.

I'm going to say that YES we can expect to get back up to those 2016 levels -- and even beyond that -- but it might take another year or two AND we probably need some new detached homes to be built.  If that is even possible.

 

As always, let me know what you think!  Are you more optimistic (or pessimistic) than I am about detached home sales?