October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report - Sales Steady, Prices Inch Lower

I just published my monthly market report on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Read on for a summary, or jump right into the report by reading it online or downloading the PDF.

Just a year ago, I was reporting that when comparing Jan-Oct 2007 to Jan-Oct 2008:

• home sales had dropped 22%
  
• the median sales price was up 1.3%
  
• the average sales price was up 0.2%
  

One year later, when comparing Jan-Oct 2008 to Jan-Oct 2009, we find that::

• home sales have dropped 20%
• the median sales price is down 4.0%
• the average sales price is down 2.6%

The first figure is troubling at first --- home sales continue to decline, year after year after year.  We saw a peak of 1,669 home sales in 2005 and we have declined drastically each year since.  However, if we stretch back a bit further, we discover that in 2000 there were 829 home sales --- not too far off of the 663 home sales we've seen so far in 2009.  So while the pace of home sales is slowing drastically in the context of the recent past, we may end the year in a similar position as the beginning of this decade when homes were selling at a modest pace.

The decline in median and average sales price is also quite troubling --- at first --- until we put that into the context of how home values have changed in other parts of Virginia and the United States.  First, though, I do understand that every homeowner wants the value of their home to increase, always, every year, without exception --- and I don't fault you for that desire.  That being said --- home values in our nation have declined quite significantly over the past several years, and many markets in Virignia also saw those drastic declines.  Yet, somehow, the Shenandoah Valley (thus far) has remained largely unscathed.  We have seen a slight, slow decline in home values (as measured by median and average sales price), but home values increased 51% between 2003 and 2006 and have only declined 1.5% between 2006 and 2009.

Let me repeat that for emphasis, because it is astonishing given what has happened nearly every other housing market in the nation....


What does the future hold, you might ask?  I showcased a few scenarios last week which you can review here.  Beyond the numbers, I believe we will continue to see small declines in home values over the next 12 months, and that over the next 6 to 18 months we will see the pace of sales start to solidify and then slowly increase.

To learn more about the details of our local housing market, review the entire October 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report:  Read Report Online  |  Download PDF.

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• ThoughI spend a considerable amount of time analyzing our local housingmarket, the majority of my time is spent helping people like you buyand sell real estate.  If you (or someone you know) will be buying orselling real estate sometime in the near future, I'd be delighted tohave the opportunity to be of service.