JMU Student Housing Supply & Demand Analysis

As we approach the 2009/2010 academic year at JMU, I believe we will be facing a significant surplus in student housing for JMU students.  However, do bear in mind that there are many factors that make it difficult to track the actual supply and demand for student housing, including:

• There are many metrics by which JMU measures their enrollment, some of which include part-time students, those studying abroad, faculty and staff enrolled in courses, etc., each of whom may not actually need student housing.
• Aside from student housing available in well-defined areas (on campus residence halls, apartment complexes), there are also many housing units that may or may not be leased to JMU students in any given year (single family homes, individual townhomes in communities near campus, etc).

To analyze the current student housing supply and demand, I used Fall 2007 enrollment data as a baseline (17,428 students), and I made the assumption that there was a balance between supply and demand for the 2007/2008 academic year.  In other words, I assumed that there were approximately 17,428 “beds” available for students (on campus, off campus complexes, off campus houses, off campus townhouses, etc).  I believe there was some small amount of vacancy at that time, but it was negligible.
   
On the demand side of the student housing equation, enrollment for Fall 2009 is projected to be 18,928 students.  This is an increase of 1,500 students as compared to our Fall 2007 baseline.

On the supply side, I estimate that 3,240 additional beds will be available for Fall 2009 as compared to Fall 2007.  These new beds are located in the following communities:

• JMU Residence Hall
• 865 East
• Campus View Condos
• Charleston Townes
• Copper Beach
• North 38
• Sunchase
• Urban Exchange
  

Thus, per my analysis, there will be a surplus of 1,740 beds for Fall 2009.  This equates to an overall vacancy rate of 9.2%.  Accounting for anticipated enrollment growth, the continuation of current student housing projects, and the onset of new student housing projects, I anticipate the following surplus housing supply in the coming years:

• Fall 2009    1,740 bed surplus    9.2% vacancy
  
• Fall 2010    1,351 bed surplus    6.9% vacancy
  
• Fall 2011    1,066 bed surplus    5.3% vacancy

The above projections do not consider additional projects that may come online that are unknown at the current time.