The cost of buying a home has increased quite a bit over the past five years due to several main factors...

1.  Higher home prices.  :–)

2.  Higher mortgage interest rates.

3.  Higher real estate tax rates.

Which leaves some would–be home buyers wondering... will it be more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg in 1, 3 or 5 years?

I think the answer is "probably not" – but let's dig in a bit...

Home Prices – Even as mortgage interest rates have pushed monthly housing costs higher and higher over the past few years, home prices have kept on rising.  It seems very likely that this will continue to be the case over the next 1, 3 and 5 years – thus changes in home prices will probably not make it more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.

Mortgage Interest Rates – It is certainly possible that we will see lower mortgage interest rates in 1, 3 or 5 years.  Mortgage interest rates are currently staying mostly between 6.5% and 7%.  If they fell to 6% or 5.5% or 5%, each reduction would make it more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.  That said, if it takes three years for rates to meaningfully decline, and home prices have risen during that timeframe, homes might not be any more affordable.

Real Estate Tax Rates – While there have been some periods of time when real estate rates have declined, they almost always stay steady or increase.  We shouldn't count on lower real estate tax rates in the next five years to help with housing affordability.

New Construction – New home communities can be a bit of a wildcard that could help it become more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.  If enough new homes are built (at a variety of price points) that could slow the increase in home prices over time.  Do note, however, that for buying to become more affordable, these new homes would have to be offered at prices that might not be possible given rising construction costs.

So... if you conclude that it is too expensive to buy a home in Harrisonburg today, should you expect it to be more affordable to buy such a home in 1, 3 or 5 years?  It's certainly possible, but it doesn't seem likely an overly likely trajectory.

Want to chat more about the market, the buying process or real estate in general?  Reach out anytime.

 

As referenced earlier this week, fewer homeowners are selling these days.

Jan – Apr existing (resale) home sales in 2024 = 290

Jan – Apr existing (resale) home sales in 2025 = 243

So, what is motivating some homeowners to sell, and others to stay put?

Homeowners are often staying put because...

1.  They love their house and it works great for them now and into the future.

2.  Their house works reasonably well for them and they have a sub 4% mortgage interest rate, making the idea of selling and purchasing not so exciting given how their mortgage payment would increase.

I think a lot of homeowners (most? nearly all?) fit into one of those two categories above.

The homeowners who are selling may be doing so because...

1.  A job change is taking them to another market.

2.  Their home really doesn't work well for them any longer relative to size, space, layout, school district, etc.

3.  They are moving to a retirement community.

4.  They are moving out of the area to live near kids and grand kids.

5.  They are downsizing because kids are grown and gone.

What's not on this list?

Given the current mortgage interest rates of most homeowners (low) and the today's mortgage interest rates (higher than low) there aren't many homeowners who are selling just to move to a slightly larger home, or a slightly nicer home, or a slightly better location.

This is often referred to as the "lock–in effect" whereby many homeowners are hesitant to sell their current home because they have a low mortgage interest rate – often much lower than current rates.  Selling and buying a new home would mean taking on a new mortgage at a higher rate, resulting in a significantly higher monthly payment.  This financial disincentive is causing many homeowners to stay put, even if they might otherwise be ready to move.

Will you be selling your home yet this year?  If so, what will cause you to sell?  Did it make it onto my list, or did I miss something?

 

You're early in the home search process so while we have started looking at houses, you haven't secured a pre–approval letter yet.

We have looked at 10 houses thus far, and while we have seen some pretty good options, we haven't found anything that has been an ideal fit for you and your family.

And then... the perfect house hits the market...

We go see the house, you love it as much as we both know you will even before we walk in the door.

But you still don't have that pre–approval letter.

While you are calling a lender to work on your pre–approval, other buyers are writing offers on this fresh new listing.

Why?

 

Because (as a buyer recently pointed out to me) the perfect house for you is likely to be the perfect house for others.

Whatever your combination of ideals is for a house... related to size, style, location, price, layout, finishes... there are likely other buyers who have those same ideals.

So... if the perfect house for you might hit the market any day now (it's springtime, so yes, it's quite possible) then I encourage you to go ahead and get pre–approved for a mortgage now rather than later.

When the perfect house hits the market, I want you to be in the "drafting an offer" club... not in the "still needs to talk to a lender" club.

 

Track new listings here.

Reach out if you want to set up a time to talk about buying a home.

 

We're mid–way through May and today I bring you a personal update, a fun reader giveaway, and an in–depth look at the latest trends in our local housing market.  But first...

If you will be selling your house soon, or if you are starting to consider a home purchase, I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email.  

You can also subscribe to my daily email newsletter to learn more about the market and the buying and selling process over time.

Since my last update, I had a great time running in the Park to Park Half Marathon (Stuarts Draft to Waynesboro) and in the Perfect Day 50K.  

This was the start of who knows which lap of the (10) 5K laps at the Perfect Day 50K on the Western Slopes of Massanutten.

Given what appear to be rain drops, i think this was the last (10th) 5K loop.  The rain held off all the way until the end of the day.

Dirty shoes, tired legs, but I made it through.

I don't have my next race planned yet – I plan to just do some running because I enjoy running over the coming weeks and months. One such fun run will be on Saturday morning out at Natural Chimneys during the Red Wing Roots Music Festival... coming up before we know it... June 20 – 22.  

Red Wing is always a highlight of my summer –– great music, a beautiful setting, wonderful community and more.  If you haven't been before, consider coming out for the day on Saturday, coming each day, or getting a campsite and staying over!  

If you're feeling lucky, enter for a chance to win (2) three day tickets to Red Wing here.  If you're not feeling as lucky, just go ahead and buy the tickets here.  ;–)

Now, after all that, let's take a look at the latest data and trends in our local housing market.  I will warn you up front that there are some interesting, somewhat contradictory and perplexing numbers to consider this month...

The 100 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in April 2025 marked an 11% decline from 112 a year ago and a 22% decline from two years ago.  April was a much slower than usual month in our local market.

Expanding the scope a bit, the past three months (Feb – Apr) have also been slower than normal with a 15% decline in the number of homes that are selling this year as compared to the same timeframe last year.

When we look back a full 12 months, however, we see that there have been 7% more home sales than in the previous year.  So, we were starting to see an increase in home sales over the past year... but that has slowed considerably over the past few months.

Prices, meanwhile, are increasing but more slowly than in recent years.  Looking at a 3–month, 6–month and 12–month timeframe we're seeing a 2%, 3% and 4% increase in the median sales price. 

So... we're seeing fewer home sales here lately... but median sales prices are still increasing.

Let's take attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) out of the mix and see how things change...

If you have been trying to buy a detached home you might have had an even more difficulty time doing so over the past few months.  We have seen 21% fewer detached home sales over the past three months (Feb–Apr) compared to the same time last year.

I'll pause there, though, to point out a context for all of this that has not yet been shown in the numbers.  

Fewer home sales is typically a result of either fewer buyers wanting to buy or fewer sellers being willing to sell.  When I say (above) that it is difficult to buy a detached home, that is because the current reduction in home sales seems to be almost entirely a result of fewer sellers selling... not fewer buyers wanting to buy.

You'll see this more clearly when we get to some inventory trends below.

Back to the detached homes... those sales have dropped 21% over the past three months (compared to the same three months last year) as compared to a 15% market–wide drop... but the median sales price of those detached homes has increased 9% over the past year.

Perhaps the comparatively tighter detached home market has created more upward pressure on prices?

In contrast, let's see what's happening with attached homes...

We are also seeing a decrease in attached home sales (townhomes, duplexes and condos) but it is not as significant (–5%) as the overall market (–15%). 

 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the 9% year over year increase in the median sales price of detached homes... we're only seeing a 2% year over year increase in the median sales price of attached homes.

Breaking things down geographically, here's the last in City home sales...

My oh my!  City homeowners just don't want to sell.  We have seen a 42% drop (from 76 to 44) in City home sales when comparing the past three months (Feb–Apr) to the same months last year.

Just as with detached homes, along with a larger decrease in the number of homes that are selling, we're seeing a larger increase in the median sales price.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

The decrease in home sales in the City (–42%) over the past three months is much more significant than in the County (–7%) over the same timeframe.

And, perhaps as we would therefore expect, the increase in the median sales price in the City (+8%) is much more significant than in the County (+3%) over the past year.

What happens when we take out new homes and just look at the resale market?  Let's take a look...

Refreshing your memory... here's are three figures from the overall (new and resale) market... side by side with resale (existing) home sales only...

# Home Sales (Feb–Apr):  –15% all homes, –16% resale homes

# Home Sales (12 months):  +7% all homes, +3% resale homes

Median Sales Price (12 months):  +4% all homes, +10% resale homes

So... if you're selling a resale home (particularly if it is a detached home and/or in the City of Harrisonburg) you should find a strong pool of buyers and will likely sell for a favorable price.

Now, on to the graphs, so... fewer numbers, more lines, and perhaps a bit easier to see the directionality and magnitude of the trends...

All four months thus far in 2025 have shown fewer home sales (red line) than during the same month last year (blue line) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Thus far, 2025 has been a comparatively slower year for home sales as you can also see here...

The 343 home sales seen in the first four months of 2025 is the slowest start to a year that we have seen at least since 2021.  Will we start to see more home sales as we continue through 2025?  Or will this be the slowest year for home sales over the past five years?

The median sales price (green line) is still rising –– but more slowly over the past year (+3%) than in the overall market (+10%) though keep in mind that this 3% is market–wide and the increase is more significant when looking just at detached homes, or City homes, or resale homes.

And... after we saw the amount of home sales activity (blue line) rising through 2024 we have seen that turn back around and start to decline for each month in 2025.

But yet... a bright spot?

The first three months of the year showed lower (much lower) numbers of contracts being signed (by buyers and sellers) but the April figure (134) was only barely below last year (139) in what could be (?) a sign that we're starting to see 2025 pick up a little steam.

Further reinforcing that possibility...

We are seeing a very similar amount of pending (under contract) listings right now compared to where we were a year ago –– even after this metric was floating lower than last year in the early months of 2025.

And circling back to the context of inventory mentioned earlier...

A month ago we were seeing inventory (red line) rise steadily... and it seemed we might see it pop above last year's levels.  But, alas, for better or for worse, that did not happen.  The market is still maintaining lower inventory levels now than we saw a year ago... confirming that the decrease in home sales in 2025 is almost entirely a supply side issue.

And finally (last graph) mortgage interest rates are a lot more predictable now than they have been for many stretches over the past 10 years.  We are seeing them stay pretty consistently between 6.5% and 7% over the pas six months and even over most of the past 12 months.

So, what does all of this mean for you if you're thinking about selling your home or considering a home purchase?

If you're preparing to sell your home...

[1]  We can't conclude anything about your home's value based on this market–wide analysis – we will need to look more closely at your home's price range, property type, location, age, features, etc. to determine the market value of your home.

[2]  Many (though not all) price ranges, property types and locations are seeing a shortage of sellers and a surplus of buyers.  This should be a benefit to you when we list your house for sale.

[3]  Carefully prepared, properly priced and extensively marketed homes still sell for the best price and with the most favorable terms.  Let's chat about how to optimize each of those areas (preparation, pricing, marketing) for your home.

If you hope to buy a home this spring or summer...

[1]  Let's start looking soon –– the longer the timeframe we have to consider homes, the more options you will have to find the best home for you.

[2]  Let's chat about your hopes, dreams and goals for your home purchase, and your budget, and then we can start dialing into the locations and neighborhoods where we are mostly likely to find your next home.

[3]  When the perfect home hits the market it will probably be perfect for more buyers than just you – so go ahead and get preapproved for a mortgage today so that you are ready to pursue a home you love.

If you have questions about any of the data or trends I have outlined above... or if you're wondering how it applies to your home, neighborhood or situation... feel free to reach out anytime by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email.

Finally, if it would be helpful to meet to talk about your thoughts and questions about selling or buying... or to talk about improvements you might make to your home... or to talk about running... or to talk about Red Wing... just let me know.  I'm happy to meet up with you over coffee or at my office.

 

As mentioned last week, the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County will not be increasing their real estate tax rates in 2025.

But...

1.  The real tax rate in the City of Harrisonburg has been steadily increasing for several years now.

2.  Home values (and thus real estate assessments) have been steadily increasing for several years now.

Thus, as several of you pointed out... monthly housing costs have effectively increased both as a result of changes in the tax rates and changes in assessed values.

The data shown on the graph above is calculated using the annual median sales price in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County combined with the real estate tax rate in each corresponding year.

Real estate rates represent the amount of taxes paid on each $100 of assessed value.

Thus, for example, for the City of Harrisonburg in 2024... the median sales price was $295,000 and the real estate tax rate was $1.01.

So... $295,000 / 100 * 1.01 = $2,979.50 of annual taxes = $248 of monthly taxes.

A few observations based on the graph above...

1.  Five and six years ago the real estate tax bill was about the same in the City and County... but not so much any longer.

2.  It's currently about $66/month more expensive to pay real estate taxes on a median priced home in the City than in the County... though... interestingly... the median price is higher in the County ($347K) than in the City ($312K).

3.  The monthly real estate tax bill on a median priced home in the City has increased $106 over the past six years.

4.  The monthly real estate tax bill on a median priced home in the County has increased $40 over the past six years.

Does the difference in real estate tax rate between the City and County impact where you hope to buy your next home?

There won't be any changes in the real estate tax rates for the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County for the coming (2025–26) fiscal year...

2024 = $1.01 per $100 of assessed value

2025 = $1.01 per $100 of assessed value

2024 = $0.68 per $100 of assessed value

I've heard this from quite a few sellers over the past few months...

"I want to sell for a reasonable and fair price"

...so let's talk about what that typically means.

If we conduct a market analysis of your home and conclude that it is likely worth $425,000 in the current market then wanting to "sell for a reasonable and fair price" likely means...

1.  You'd be happy to sell for $425K.

2.  You'd be happy to sell for $420K or $430K.

3.  You don't want to end up with a sales price of $400K or $405K or $410K.

4.  You don't find a need to try to sell for $440K or $450K.

As you prepare to get your home on the market... how will you think about pricing?

Will you be hoping to sell for a reasonable and fair price?

Will you be hoping a buyer will pay $20K to $30K more than they might expect to have to pay based on recent comparable sales?

Are there timing or other motivations that will make you willing to sell for $20K to $30K less than a buyer might expect to pay based on recent comparable sales?

Our best strategy is to start by putting together a market analysis of your home, and then see what we believe would be a reasonable and fair price for your house.

Curious what a reasonable and fair price looks like for your home in today's market?  I'd be happy to prepare a market analysis to help guide your selling decisions. Just reach out when you're ready to start the conversation.

 

Over the past 30 days we have seen quite a few new construction homes (28 of them) hitting the market for sale in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County  

If you're in the market for a new home, some of these are new and potentially interesting options. 

 

Let me know if you are interested in exploring one of these new home neighborhoods in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.

 

Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are a popular place to live, work, retire and more... which has lead to steady population group over time. 

 

But when you chat with someone who is planning a move to this area... or who recently moved to this area... there is a good chance they will mention the challenge of finding a home to purchase.

A few dynamics are at play here...

There are more people trying to move into the Harrisonburg area –– to make it their home –– than there are moving out of this area.  Thus, there is an ever increasing number of people looking for housing.

Many homeowners have super low interest rates –– and most bought their homes at lower prices than they would pay if they bought another house today.  Thus, we are seeing fewer current homeowners selling their homes –– which results in fewer options from which home buyers can choose.

New home communities create opportunities for home buyers to settle down in the Harrisonburg area and have a home of their own.

Stay tuned later this week for more details on several areas where new homes are popping up...

2.  The shorter your timeframe, the more flexible you'll likely need to be.

Buying a home is an exciting journey – one that comes with important decisions along the way. My goal is to help you navigate the process with clarity and confidence, making sure every step moves you closer to finding the home that’s right for you.

If you're hoping to buy a home in 2025, you might wonder what your first steps should be... here are my recommendations...

We'll start by talking through what you're looking for in a home – your needs, goals, and dreams – along with your ideal budget. I’ll also help you connect with a trusted local lender to determine the best price range and loan options.

  

Next up, we’ll begin exploring homes that fit your vision. As we tour properties and learn more about what you love (and what you don't), we’ll keep refining the search until we find the one.

 

Once we've found the right home, I'll guide you through making an offer, negotiating terms, completing inspections, securing financing, and handling all the details leading up to closing day. From your first showing to getting the keys, I'll be right by your side to answer questions, offer advice, and keep things on track.

 

Reach out today if you are ready to set up a first meeting to talk about the possibility of buying a home.

When we meet, we'll also discuss...

I have met with multiple first time buyers in recent weeks who are trying to sort through if they should buy a home now... or if they should keep renting for now.

Perhaps you find yourself in that situation... to buy... or not to buy...

There are lots of different reasons why you might choose to go ahead and buy a house...

But there are also reasons why you might choose to keep renting...

Competition is fierce amongst investors right now as many buyers (local and beyond) seem to be eager to buy residential income producing properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Sometimes this is a multi–family property... a duplex, a triplex, a quad, or something even larger...

Sometimes this is a new construction townhouse in an exciting new neighborhood...

Sometimes this is a resale townhouse in a great location...

In all of these scenarios, though, the common thread is that there are lots of investors trying to buy this type of property.

Residential income producing properties have always been popular but over the past few years it seems their popularity (locally) has increased as local investors opt to invest at least part of their finances in the local real estate market.

If you are interested in buying an income producing property, I'm happy to help you better understand the current market and the landscape for pursuing such a purchase. 

 

Just remember... you'll be in good company... lots of investors are pursuing these opportunities right now.

 

How quickly are homes going under contract?  It seems to vary quite a bit!

I took a look at the 217 resale homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County that have sold thus far in 2025. 

Here's the breakdown...

90 homes (42%) went under contract less than a week after they were listed for sale.

57 homes (26%) went under contract in more than a week but less than a month... bringing the total under contract within a month to 68%.

37 homes (17%) went under contract in two to three months.

33 homes (15%) went under contract after more than three months had passed.

When we are getting ready to list your home for sale, we can certainly break the data down a bit further... based on your home's price range, location, property type, etc.

 

We're now about 117 days into the year and markedly fewer home sales are coming together this year than last.

The graph above shows us that thus far this April buyers and sellers have signed 109 contracts for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County –– compared to 131 during the same timeframe last year.  This marks a 17% decline in contract activity when comparing April to April.

But let's stretch out the time horizon a bit... looking at the entire year to date...

When looking at the year thus far, we have seen 403 contracts signed this year, compared to 470 last year which equates to a 14% decline in contract activity.

What is driving this slower start to contract activity this year? 

Here are a few possible causes...

1.  Plenty of homeowners are still holding onto super low mortgage interest rates on their current homes and do not want to sell their homes, thus limiting inventory, thus limiting contract activity.

2.  After declining from April through September last year, mortgage interest rates have climbed back up above 6.5% and have stayed there thus far in 2025.  This increases monthly housing costs for potential buyers and can limit buyer activity... though those buyers do need listings to contract to buy.

3.  The stock market and broader economy have experienced some volatility thus far in 2025 which can cause some uncertainty or unease for some would be buyers and sellers.

In the end though, with inventory levels at a similar spot to where they were a year ago, it seems reasonable to mostly point to a lower number of willing sellers when trying to understand these lower contract numbers.

If the lower contract activity were a result of a lower number of willing buyers, we would likely see inventory levels climbing above where it was a year ago at this time.

We're still in the thick of the spring market, so we may yet see plenty of listings and plenty of contracts signed, but thus far... contract activity is off to a much slower start in 2025.

 

Selling a home is a significant decision that involves many moving parts. My goal is to guide you through the process with clarity and confidence, ensuring each step is handled efficiently and effectively for a smooth transition.

If you're planning to sell your home this Spring, you might wonder what your first steps should be... here are my recommendations...

First Meeting At Your House – We'll start by meeting at your home so I can get a good sense of its key features and layout. We'll talk through any updates or improvements you're considering before listing, and we'll also go over your timeline and goals for the sale to make sure we're on the same page from the start. (ready to meet?)

Determine A Game Plan – Next, we'll put together a clear plan for listing your home. I'll prepare a market analysis so we can talk through your homes value and decide on a pricing strategy that fits the current market. We'll also finalize any updates or preparations you're planning, and set a target date for getting your home on the market.

 

Listing Your Home For Sale – Once we've settled on a pricing strategy and your updates are complete, we'll be ready to get your home on the market. At this point, we'll schedule professional photos, finalize the marketing preparations, and complete the listing paperwork. Everything typically comes together within a few days – and then your home will be officially on the market for sale!

 

Reach out today if you are ready to set up a first meeting to talk about the possibility of selling your house.

 

You can learn more about what the process looks like when we work together to sell your home over here, including...

Again, if you are thinking about selling your home this Spring, let's set up a first meeting to talk things through.

 

You have been looking at houses for a while now... and some have come close to what you're looking for... but none have been quite right.

Until this one.  A new listing hit this morning and we hurried out to see it this afternoon.  You love the house.  It offers just what you are looking for and is in great condition and you love the lot and neighborhood.

There's just one problem...

 

It is reasonable to think the house is worth $425,000... but the owners have priced it at $435,000.

(As an aside – yes, I realize value is not always quite this precise, specific and objectively measured, but roll with me for the moment.)

So... the perfect house, worth $425K is offered for sale for $435K.

What would you choose to do?

Option 1 – Do nothing, because you don't want to pay $435K and you figure someone probably will pay the price.  I'm guessing you won't choose this option because we've been looking for a while and this house is a much better fit for you than the others we have considered.

Option 2 – Make an offer of $425K (or lower) and try to negotiate the price down to where you believe it should be.  We could do this... and you might choose to do this... but it is a brand new listing, and if there is the potential for other competing buyer interest then this strategy will likely lead to you not buying the house.  The lower than list price offer on Day 1 will likely result in the seller waiting to respond, hoping to gather a few more offers from other buyers.

Option 3 – Willingly, knowingly, slightly overpaying for the house.  This can sometimes be the right option to pursue.  If the price is "close enough" and the house is very, very right enough – it might not be worth trying to negotiate $5K or $10K off of the list price.  Offer the list price, make it a clean offer, hope the seller will decide to move forward with you and not pursue other offers... and know that you are paying a bit more than maybe you "should" but it is for a great house!

 

Sometimes we will go see houses that feel almost right for you... but not completely right... just almost right.

Maybe the house has everything you said was on your list, but it just doesn't have the setting, lot, surroundings or views that you were hoping you would find.

Maybe the house has all the right types of spaces and finishes but they all seem just slightly off the market related to size, layout or fitting your style or needs.

It can be really hard to decide NOT to make an offer on a house that seems like it is just about perfect for you.

Until... you walk into the home that is, indeed, exactly what you are looking for in a home.

Then, it's a completely different experience... all the past doubts of whether you should have pursued those other almost perfect houses quickly slip into the background.  

You can tell right away that it is good that you decided NOT to make an offer on those other houses that could have worked but just didn't feel quite right.

This is not to say that every buyer will be able to find a house that feels like the absolutely perfect house to them.

This is not to say that you won't have to compromise on some of what you are looking for in a home.

What I am saying is that if a house does not feel quite right (for whatever reason) it's OK to decide NOT to make an offer... that might then give you an amazing sense of relief later on in the process when we do find the house that is just right for you!

 

 

A buyer client asked me a very reasonable question recently...

Doesn't a seller get paid the same amount of money at closing regardless of whether a buyer paid cash or if they had a loan?

Indeed... they do!

Let's say you're selling a house for $350,000 and you receive two offers...

$350,000 with the buyer paying cash

As the seller, you will get paid $350,000 at closing in either of these scenarios.

But...

There is still a difference between these two offers... though we could debate whether that difference is real, perceived, theoretical, etc.

The difference in the two offers is the certainty of whether the deal will make it to closing – and thus whether the seller will receive the $350,000 at all.

The proposed contract with a buyer needing financing might proceed swimmingly... and make it to closing without any issues at all, but...

1.  The buyer's financing might not be approved if they haven't disclosed all pertinent financial details to their lender.

2.  The appraisal might come in low, impacting a buyer's ability to finance the purchase.

Meanwhile, the cash buyer does not need to obtain loan approval and does not need to have an appraisal completed satisfactorily.

So... many sellers will gravitate towards a cash offer vs. one with financing IF all of the other terms are the same.  Certainly, if there is a difference in the proposed purchase price or in other contingencies, the cash aspect of one offer might not be enough to win the day.

 

Some would–be home buyers are holding off on a home purchase right now because of how current mortgage interest rates are impacting their potential monthly payment.

But, will monthly housing costs be considerably lower in the future?

That all depends on whether mortgage interest rates drop faster than home prices rise.

Let's take a look at a sample scenario and make some guesses about the future.

If you were to consider buying a home for $325,000 today and financing 80% (an 80% loan to value ratio) of the purchase price at 6.75% your mortgage payment would be $2,017.

$325,000 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.75% = $2,017

Then, let's assume over the course of a year, the mortgage interest rates drops to 6.5%... but home prices rise 3%.

$334,750 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.50% = $2,033

Oops... the mortgage payment rose despite lower mortgage interest rates.

Then, over the following year, mortgage interest rates drop to 6.25%... but home prices rise 3%.

$344,793 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.25% = $2,048

Again... the monthly housing cost rose.

One more time to illustrate a point you are likely already understanding... let's say over the following year mortgage interest rates drop to 6% but home prices rise 3%.

$355,136 home w/80% LTV @ 6.00% = $2,065

Hopefully this illustrates the main challenge with waiting to buy until mortgage rates fall.  That can definitely be a solid strategy –– but it relies heavily on rates falling faster than prices rise.

My illustration above was showing a 0.25% drop in mortgage interest rates a year and a 3% increase in home prices.

I'd love to say we'd see mortgage interest rates fall more quickly than that, but I don't know whether we can count on that over the next few years.

All this is to say that if you are waiting to buy a home until mortgage interest rates drop so that your housing costs will be lower –– I get it, that makes sense –– but the only way that strategy works is if mortgage rates decline. 

 

I hope they do, but it isn't something we can necessarily depend on.

If you want to talk through a variety of scenarios related to potential purchase prices, mortgage interest rates, monthly housing costs, etc. –– I'm happy to help you run some numbers, or I can connect you with a wonderful local lender.