One of the trends I've been noticing more frequently in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market over the past few months is that some sellers are accepting offers very quickly –– sometimes not waiting for additional potential offers to show up.

Now, to be clear, not every seller is doing this. Some sellers do choose to wait several days to allow more showings and give other buyers time to submit competing offers. But more and more, I'm seeing sellers take a serious look at that first strong offer that comes in –– and some are choosing to move forward with that first (only) offer rather than waiting for additional offers.

Why would a seller accept an early offer?  There are actually plenty of good reasons why a seller might decide not to wait:

If the terms are favorable, why wait?  A solid offer with strong financing and limited contingencies is hard for many sellers to ignore –– especially if the timing or other terms align with what the seller was hoping for.

Will the next offer really be better?  Sometimes the first offer is the best offer. While it's possible another one might come in, it's not guaranteed, and it might not be any stronger.

Buyers can change their minds.  An excited buyer might write a strong offer in the heat of the moment, but waiting around might lead to hesitation or cold feet. Sellers sometimes prefer to lock in a motivated buyer rather than take that risk.

Of course, unless we're in the room with the seller, we don't know the full story behind why a quick decision was made. But I'm seeing early offers being accepted more often these days.

What does this mean for buyers?

If you're in the market to buy a home right now, this is your heads up –– you can't always count on having a few days to think it over – AND – if you're serious about a new listing, don't hesitate to make an offer quickly. The seller might wait a few days for more offers –– but they might not. And if the right offer is already on the table, they could decide to take it and be done.
    

A recent sale in your neighborhood might have caught your attention –– a 2,000 square foot home that was listed for $385,000 and had 15 showings and 10 offers in just a few days.

That kind of activity is exciting to see –– especially if you're planning to sell your home soon.

But what if your home is larger –– say, 2,800 square feet?

It's only natural to assume your house should sell for quite a bit more. After all, you're offering 800 more square feet –– more room to spread out, more value, right?

Maybe.

Certainly, your home should be priced higher than $385K, given the additional space. But the real question becomes... how much higher? And what impact will that higher price point have on how much interest your home receives?

The Temptation to Price High

You might look at the gap in size and reasonably think your home should be priced at $450K or even $485K.

And it's possible that it will sell at one of those price points –– based on square footage, finishes, updates, and other features.

But... it's important to keep in mind that the $385K home likely generated as much interest as it did because of its price point. It was more accessible to a wider pool of buyers, and that price point likely contributed to the high number of showings and offers.

So... if you price your home $65K or $100K higher, should you still expect 15 showings and 10 offers?

More Space, Fewer Buyers?

Maybe your home will still attract a ton of interest –– especially if it's beautifully maintained, has appealing updates, and offers great space. A larger home in the same neighborhood will naturally appeal to buyers who want more room.

But... maybe not.

As your price point increases, the number of buyers qualified (and willing) to buy at that price point tends to decrease. There are simply fewer buyers ready to pay $450K for a house than there are willing to pay $385K.

After all, it's not always just about value, it's also about the affordability (or not) of that monthly mortgage payment.

So, if you're pricing your home based on a recent sale in your neighborhood, especially one that had lots of buyer activity, remember this...

A lower price point often brings a wider audience. As you move higher in price, it's likely that the number of showings and potential offers will decrease –– even if your home is certainly worth more.

The key is to strike the right balance –– price your home so that you're not leaving money on the table, but so that you're still attracting enough buyer interest to generate the number of showings and offers that will result in a successful sale.
  

When we prepare to list your home for sale, one of the most important steps we will work through together is determining the right list price. To do that, we will look closely at market data –– usually focusing on comparable home sales from the past six months or so.

Let's say we run that market analysis, and the data clearly points to a value of $500K for your home in the current market.  We conclude that your home is almost certainly worth $500K given recently sold homes that are similar to yours in size, location, condition, features, etc.

But then… just before we put your house on the market, something happens that causes us to pause and talk about pricing again.

Here are two events that could take place that would cause us to re–think our pricing...

1.  A very similar home is listed for $540,000 and goes under contract in two days.

2.  A less impressive home is listed for $500,000 and goes under contract in two days.

In either of these cases, it's reasonable to pause and reconsider our prior pricing plans.  It is quite possible that buyers will pay more for your home than we anticipated.

The Value of Recent (and Super Recent) Market Activity

While your original market analysis is still important, a brand–new listing that's under contract in 48 hours can be a very helpful data point. It may be worth considering whether we should adjust our planned list price upwards, even if just a bit, to reflect this most recent activity.

That said, there are two important caveats:

1.  We won't know the final sales price of that new comparable until it closes. It might have gone under contract at full price, above it, or even below ––  but we won't know for sure until that properties makes it to closing.

2.  One data point doesn't make a trend. A single similar listing, even if it seems to point to a wonderful new market trajectory, likely isn't enough to guarantee that we will definitely sell your home at a higher price than our original market analysis indicated. We ought to weigh the new data point alongside other market indicators.

So, What Should We Do?

If there's a gap of time between when we do the initial market analysis and when your home actually goes on the market, we'll want to keep watching for similar homes to hit the market for sale.

We'll be watching for those new listings, their prices, and how quickly they go under contract right up to when we put your house on the market. This will allow us to make a final pricing decision that reflects both the broader market over the past six months and the most recent market activity.

If you're a first–time buyer currently renting, one of the biggest questions you may be asking is:

"When would I have to start making mortgage payments if I buy a home?"

And more specifically  – "Will I be stuck paying rent and a mortgage at the same time?"

That's a reasonable concern, and it's something many first–time buyers worry about when trying to time a home purchase around the end of a lease. But the good news? Your first mortgage payment probably won't be due as soon as you think.

Let's walk through a sample scenario to better understand the potential timing.

The Scenario: Lease Ends March 31, 2026

Let's say your current lease ends on March 31, 2026, which means your final rent payment is likely due on March 1.

Now let's back up.

If you find a house in mid–December 2025, that might feel a little early… right?

But actually – the timing might work out perfectly!

December 15: Under Contract

If you make an offer and go under contract on December 15, the typical closing timeline is often about 45 to 60 days. Because you want to avoid overlapping rent and mortgage payments, you might choose the longer end of that range, aiming for a February 15 closing date, about 60 days after the contract date.

February 15: Closing Day

When you close on February 15, you'll pay interest for the remainder of February at closing.

But –– and here's the part that surprises many first–time buyers –– your first mortgage payment won't be due until April 1, 2026.

Why? Mortgage Payments Are Paid in Arrears

Unlike rent, which you typically pay before the month begins, mortgage payments are paid after the month is over.

So:

• Interest for February is paid at closing
• Interest builds up through March
• First full mortgage payment is due April 1

That means –– in this scenario –– you'll finish paying rent on March 1 and won't make your first mortgage payment until April 1.

No Overlap, No Double Payments!

So, if your lease ends March 31 and you're thinking about starting your home search in December, you're not too early at all –– you're likely right on track.

Every situation is a little different depending on your lease terms so if you're starting to think about buying a home, let's sit down and:

• Review the specifics of your lease
• Explore a few timeline scenarios
• Talk through what would work best for your situation

Together we can likely come up with a solid plan for timing your purchase to align with your lease ending.
  

If you’re thinking about buying a rental property in Harrisonburg, there are a few zoning questions you’ll want to keep in mind before you start looking at homes.

Zoning in Harrisonburg isn’t just a technical detail. The city’s zoning rules directly affect how you can rent out a property – whether you want to rent to families, students, or short–term guests. Two houses that look almost the same might have very different rental options, just because of their zoning. That’s why it’s important to understand the zoning rules before you buy.

If you want a duplex, the zoning ordinance permits them in R–2 and R–8 zones. A duplex simply means there are two separate living units on the same property. Each unit then follows the same occupancy rules as any other home in that zone.

Here’s how the ordinance works in practice:

If you live in one unit:

• You could rent the other unit to a family, two unrelated individuals, or a family plus one unrelated individual.
• In your own unit, you could also have up to two unrelated roommates living with you.

If you don’t live there:

• Each side of the duplex could be rented to a family, two unrelated individuals, or a family plus one unrelated individual.

What this means for you:

• Example 1: You buy a side–by–side duplex, live in the left unit, rent the right unit to a family of four, and also have two roommates living with you to help cover your mortgage.
• Example 2: You don’t live in the duplex at all, and instead rent one side to a family, and the other side to two unrelated grad students.

Best fit: Investors who want flexibility – a duplex can generate two separate rental streams, and if you live in one side, you can still “house hack” with roommates. It’s a middle ground between a single–family home and a larger multi–unit property.

If a House is Zoned R–3 or R–4

The ordinance says:

• A property can be occupied by one family OR up to four unrelated individuals total – regardless of whether the owner lives there.

What this means for you:

• If you don’t live there, you could rent a 4–bedroom house to four unrelated students or young professionals.
• If you do live there, you count toward the four – so you could live in one room and rent the other three to unrelated tenants.

Best fit: Student rentals or per–bedroom leasing, since these zones are the most flexible for unrelated tenants.

Short–Term Rentals (Airbnb / VRBO)

Harrisonburg distinguishes between Homestays (by right) and Short–Term Rentals (with special approval).

Homestays (By Right):

• Property must be the operator’s primary residence.
• Rentals must be less than 30 consecutive nights.
• Limited to 90 nights per calendar year.
• Capped at 4 guests at a time.
• Allowed in single–family, duplex, and townhomes (not apartments).
• Guests must stay within the main dwelling (not an accessory building).
• Requires annual registration with the City ($25/year).
• No off–street parking requirements.

Short–Term Rentals (by Special Use Permit)

• Property is still the operator’s primary residence.
• Required if you want to operate beyond homestay limits (e.g., more than 90 nights, more than 4 guests, use of an accessory building, or certain multifamily units).
• Approval comes from City Council via a Special Use Permit (SUP), which involves public hearings. Approval is not automatic.
• SUP allows more flexibility, but the City can impose specific conditions (e.g., parking, guest limits).

What this means for you:

• If you want to dabble in Airbnb while living in your home, a Homestay is the simple path (≤90 nights, ≤4 guests, main dwelling).
• If you want more flexibility – like more nights, more guests, or to use an accessory building – you’ll need a Special Use Permit from City Council.

Best fit:

• Homestays: Great for owner–occupants who want to experiment with short–term rentals.
• SUP STRs: For owner–occupants who want to expand beyond homestay limits, understanding that approval isn’t guaranteed and extra conditions may apply.

Putting It All Together

• R–1, R–2, R–8 – Best for family rentals, house hacking, or duplexes. Limited flexibility for student–style rentals.
• R–3, R–4 – Best for per–bedroom or student rentals, since up to four unrelated tenants are allowed.
• Duplexes – Only permitted in R–2 and R–8, with flexibility whether you live in one side or rent out both.
• Short–term rentals – Operator–occupied only. Homestays (≤90 nights, ≤4 guests, main dwelling) are simple. Anything beyond that (more nights, more guests, accessory buildings, some multifamily) requires a City Council Special Use Permit.

The Bottom Line

As you can see, zoning in Harrisonburg is complicated. The last thing you’d want to do is buy a property without paying attention to zoning, set it up as an investment, rent it out the wrong way, and realize you’re in violation of the zoning ordinance.

The good news? You don’t have to figure this out on your own. I help investors understand the zoning ordinance, evaluate properties, and pick the right strategy that actually works within the rules.

If you aren’t sure which rental route is best for you – or if you’d like to compare the income potential of different strategies – let’s talk.

Call or text me (Luke) at 540–830–5097 or email me at luke@lukewrogers.com.

  

Somehow, it's already October. 

Yes, October!?!

While the afternoons still feel like summer, the days and weeks are moving fast – and 2025 will be coming to a close before you know it!  If you're hoping to sell your home this year and close in 2025, it's time to start putting a plan in place.

Let's Look at the Timeline

Even though many homes go under contract quickly, not all do... and even fast–moving listings still take time to get from contract to closing. Most transactions take 30 to 60 days to close once they're under contract.

So, if your goal is to sell your home in 2025, here's a realistic example of how that could play out:

Early October... We meet to discuss timing, pricing, and any prep work you plan to take on before listing our home for sale.

Mid October... Your home goes on the market for sale.

Mid November... You receive and accept an offer.

Mid to Late December... The sale officially closes.

Suddenly, December probably doesn't feel that far away.

Why do we need to be planning now?

Buyers are still active this fall, and with relatively limited inventory on the market (in most price ranges and locations), your home may stand out more now than it might in the spring. But solid preparation might take some time... simplifying, making repairs, taking photos and getting the marketing lined up.

Plus, we'll want to make sure the timeline works with your goals.

So, if you're hoping to have your home sold before the end of the year, we ought to get started soon.  Let's plan to meet in the next week or two so we can talk through the steps and make sure you're set up for a smooth and successful sale.

  

Mortgage interest rates peaked in mid January (first red circle above) at an average of 7.04% for a 30 year mortgage.  Since then, they have mostly declined.

Last week (second red circle above) the average 30 year mortgage interest rate was 6.30%.

For much of the past year the median sales price hasn't been climbing very much or very fast... so let's see how a mortgage payment might have differed at the beginning of this year vs. now...

Purchase Price = $300,000

Downpayment = $30,000

Loan Amount = $270,000

Payment @ 7.04% = $2,109

Payment @ 6.30% = $1,976

Savings / Month = $133

Purchase Price = $500,000

Downpayment = $100,000

Loan Amount = $400,000

Payment @ 7.04% = $3,180

Payment @ 6.30% = $2,984

Savings / Month = $196

So, yes, if you are buying now, you will see somewhat improved ($100 to $200 per month?) mortgage payment compared to what your payments would have been in January.

And, flipping this around a bit, you could also spend the same amount on a mortgage payment as you would have in January and buy a more expensive home.

When we are working to prepare your house to go on the market, it can be easy to focus on the things you love about your house... the sunny living room, the updated kitchen, the backyard that's great for entertaining.

But when buyers walk through your home, they might end up focusing elsewhere: the steep driveway, the small kitchen, the overflowing closet, etc.

So, here's a helpful lens for us to consider...

What are the biggest objections that buyers are likely to have about your house... and how can we present those areas in the best possible light?  Let's take a look at a few common examples.

1. A Steep Lot or Challenging Landscaping

If your home sits on a sloped lot, that might raise questions for some buyers about mowing or maintenance.  As we prepare your house for the market, let's make sure the lawn is freshly mowed and the landscaping is neat and tidy. A well–cared–for exterior helps shift the focus from "this yard and landscaping might be difficult to maintain" to "the outside looks great... let's head inside."

2. A Small Kitchen or Dining Area

A small (cozy?) space doesn't have to feel cramped – but it can feel that way if it's filled with too much furniture or clutter. Let's simplify... removing that extra chair in the corner, clearing the countertops, etc. We want to make the space feel as open, functional, and efficient as possible.

3. A Tight Primary Closet

Storage space is high on the wish list for many buyers... and an overly full closet can make a space feel even smaller. Let's take out some of your clothing and personal items. A closet that's 75% full feels roomy... but one that is 95% to 110% full feels overwhelming.

Bottom line... let's aim to strengthen your home's weakest link.

Buyers will notice the positive attributes of your home – but they'll also notice the weak spots. We should spend our time identifying those potential objections before the house hits the market, and taking steps to make sure those areas show as well as possible.
  

It happens more than you might think... we tour a house and find that it works well for you. The layout, location, and overall feel of the house are a good fit.

But... the price is a bit higher than you think is reasonable to pay for this house.

For example, perhaps the house is listed at $420K, and based on other houses we have explored, we conclude that it's worth closer to $400K.

So... what should you do?

Option 1: Make the Reasonable Offer

If $400K seems reasonable to you, let's make that offer – or even a bit lower to leave room for negotiation. 

Option 2: Offer More Than You Think It's Worth

Some buyers do this to avoid missing out – but you might feel like you are overpaying for the house.

Option 3: Don't Make an Offer

If you're confident the home isn't worth the asking price and you're not willing to pay it (or close to it), deciding not to make an offer is okay too.

Generally, I recommend Option 1 –– making the offer that seems reasonable to you.  But before we pursue that path, here's what we should discuss...

Let's say you offer $400K on the $420K home. If someone else buys it for $420K, will I be disappointed I didn't get it?

If no – your $400K offer makes sense.

If yes – maybe $400K is too low, and you care more about getting the house than you realized.

In the end, if you like the house but not the price, make the offer that feels right to you... but let's at least pause to process how you'll feel if you lose the house to another buyer who's willing to pay more.

  

You see a house listed for $425,000 and wonder... Would they take $395K? Or $385K? Maybe even $375K?

It's a fair question –– but there's usually only one good way to find out: make a written offer.

If the home is newly listed and getting a lot of showings, the seller probably isn't ready to drop the price significantly. But if it's been sitting on the market for 30, 60, or more days, they might be more flexible –– though it's still hard to know how far they'll go.

Buyers are often tempted to say:

"Can you just ask if they'd take $375K?"

or

"Let's float a verbal offer of $375K and see what happens."

But verbal offers usually don't go very far. Sellers –– and their agents –– tend to take written offers much more seriously. A written offer shows you're a real, qualified buyer with all of the terms (price, timing, contingencies) clearly spelled out. When a seller has received that full written offer from you, that's when they are more likely to stop and truly consider it –– and maybe respond with a counteroffer.

So, if you really want to know how far a seller is willing to go on price, the best strategy is to make an actual offer –– in writing.

  

When we're touring homes and you are deciding which one to buy, some aspects of neighboring properties might come into play.

We might tour one home and find that the house next door has an overgrown lawn, barking dogs in the backyard, and a driveway packed with vehicles. That might lead you to feel hesitant about moving forward with an offer, which is completely understandable.

Then, we might tour a second home –– with everything around it looking pristine. Neatly trimmed lawns, no signs of pets, minimal vehicles, etc. All signs point to a well maintained, calm neighborhood feel – and this second house might thus feel like the clear winner.

But it's important to keep in mind that... neighbors can change.

The person who mows twice a week and keeps their flowerbeds immaculate may someday move –– and be replaced by someone who doesn't own a mower. The neighbor with one vehicle may be replaced by someone with multiple driving teenagers and lots of vehicles. And that peaceful, dog–free yard could one day be replaced by multiple dogs who are always so excited to see you, and tell you about that excitement by barking.

In short, while it's very reasonable to consider the condition and attributes of neighboring properties when evaluating a home, it's also worth remembering that those properties might look different in the future –– depending on who lives there.

So what should we do? Do we at the neighboring homes? Yes –– but we'll want to mainly consider how you feel about the home itself. Does it work well for your needs, even if the surrounding neighborhood dynamics shift a bit over time? 
 

When buying a home, the home inspection is a key part of the process as it will help you better understand the condition of the property you are purchasing. But it's important to have reasonable expectations when making a repairs request of the seller.

Sellers should not be expected to bring every detail of their home up to 2025 standards.  

1. Aging Systems That Are Still Working

You might learn that the roof is 20 years old or that the HVAC system is getting towards the end of its expected life. But if those systems are still functioning properly, it's not reasonable to ask the seller to replace them simply because they're old. Many components in a home have long lifespans, and it's expected that buyers will eventually take on some of those replacements during their time in the home.

2. Routine Maintenance Items

Home inspectors often point out routine maintenance items such peeling paint, cracked caulk, weathered deck stain. These items are normal for most homes and typically fall into the category of ongoing upkeep. Buyers shouldn't necessarily expect the seller to complete a list of minor maintenance tasks that are part of typical homeownership responsibilities.

3. Outdated Building Standards

Just because something in the home wouldn't be built the same way today doesn't mean it's incorrect. Building codes change over time. A home built 25 years ago may have less insulation than a new home, or the deck may have smaller support posts than today's standards would require. If the home met code at the time it was built –– and has functioned safely and effectively since that time –– you shouldn't necessarily expect that the seller will upgrade those features to meet current standards.

Be Reasonable with Repair Requests

It's completely appropriate for buyers to request repairs for significant issues that are newly discovered during the inspection –– like a roof leak, active plumbing problem, or electrical safety hazard. But the goal should be to focus on major items, not a punch list of aging but functional systems, routine maintenance, or code updates.
  

After a buyer views your home, I will be following up with them to ask about how the showing went and to ask if the buyer has continued interest or follow up questions.  This feedback can be valuable – but only if we interpret it correctly. Most showing feedback tends to fall into one of the three categories below, and each will give us a slightly different sense of where that buyer stands in their decision–making process.

1. Not Interested, Thanks

This is the most definitive type of feedback. The buyer has ruled out the house, often for a specific and unchangeable reason –– perhaps the layout doesn't work for them, a room is too small, they'd want to make too many updates, or the price doesn't align with their expectations. While it's always helpful to hear why the buyer is not considering the house any longer –– this buyer is no longer considering the home, and it's very unlikely they'll return to reconsider it.

2. Still Thinking About It

This response often feels hopeful, but sometimes it's not as likely to result in an offer as we might think.  These buyers haven't ruled your house out, but they also haven't been convinced it's the house for them. They may continue to talk it over or compare it to other homes, but in most cases (perhaps 75% or more) they won't circle back with serious interest. That said, they could become re–engaged later, especially if there's a price change or if other options fall through.

3. Active, Tangible Questions

This is the best kind of feedback. This buyer is asking about utility costs, age of the roof, your timeline, or indicating they're talking to their lender – thus they are clearly considering a potential offer. While they still may decide to walk away, these questions show meaningful interest. They're gathering the final details they would need to make an informed decision –– and perhaps, to write an offer.

Understanding the type of feedback we receive can help us stay realistic about whether showing activity is (or is not) likely to translate into an offer.  Every showing will not lead to an offer, but recognizing the difference between polite feedback and true buyer interest can be helpful as we consider our next steps in working towards selling your home.

  

In recent years, when we heard an offer had already been made on a home we were about to tour, we would assume it was full price (or higher), and if it didn't already have an escalation clause, that such a clause would be added if or when a second offer existed.

That assumption made sense in a fast–paced market where homes sold quickly and competition was intense.

But now, things are or might be changing.

The current market is at least somewhat more balanced... in some price ranges. 

Some homes still move quickly, but others sit longer. As a result, early offers aren't always aggressive. In fact, some may come in below list price –– something we wouldn't have imagined just a year or two ago.

This change in the local market matters when you are considering an offer on a new listing.

If you're making an offer after someone else already has made one, we probably will no longer assume that the offer is necessarily a full price offer. It might be, but it also might be an offer for less than the list price, or it might have other offer terms the seller isn't excited about.

This uncertainty should affect how we approach your offer. Instead of automatically offering at or above the list price, or adding aggressive terms, we'll want to take a moment to think about what the property is worth to you, how long it has been on the market, the sales price of similar homes, etc.

In short, the offer the sellers already received might not be as strong as we would have recently assumed it was.

But, yes, some houses will definitely still have early strong offers –– so don't assume that every offer with which you are competing is a less than list price offer either.  

And, yes, some of this is related to how realistic or optimistic a seller's list price was from the start.
  

Most sellers hope to receive an offer in the first few weeks that their home is on the market. But if your home hasn't gone under contract after 30 days, it's worth asking: What should we change, if anything?

Here are four options to consider:

Change the Property

Let's review feedback from showings. If buyers are mentioning dated finishes, odors, lighting issues, etc., are there small updates that could help your home show better?

Change the Price

If other similar homes are going under contract and yours isn't, a price adjustment might help attract a wider pool of buyers and generate renewed interest.

Change the Presentation

Are the listing photos showing your home in the best possible light? Is our description of your home emphasizing its strongest selling points?  Is your home visible online and in person? What can we adjust in our marketing strategy to expand the exposure of your home to more buyers?

Wait

Sometimes, it's a matter of timing. New buyers are entering the market every week, so perhaps we wait for additional buyers to be ready to consider your home.  Keep in mind, however, that waiting works best when we have already made any necessary adjustments to the property, price and marketing.

If your home has not sold in 30 days, how will you respond?

   

301 S Main Street in downtown Harrisonburg is currently owned by the City and offers approximately 5,000 square feet of commercial space – but they'd like to hear about your ideas for how this property should be utilized.

The City will consider purchase offers and proposals for conveyance at no cost...

Any proposed sale (gift) must be approved by City Council after a public hearing takes place...

Read more about this development opportunity in downtown Harrisonburg here or directly download the details here.

   

A question I am often asked is whether we will see a meaningful drop in mortgage interest rates in 2025.  

A few thoughts leading up to the Fed's meeting tomorrow...

1.  We're most of the way through 2025 now... so there isn't much of a window remaining for mortgage interest rates to drop significantly this year.

2.  We have seen relatively steady (though small) declines in rates over the past three months –– which may have been in anticipation of the Fed dropping the federal fund rate.  So, we might not see all that much of a further decline in mortgage rates rates after the Fed meeting.

3.  At 6.35%, we're currently well below the 12 month average of 6.7%, though not as low as where we started the year.

So... will we see a significant further decline in mortgage interest rates?  Maybe?  But I would be pretty surprised to see us get down to (or below) 6% by year end.

 

Good Monday morning, friends!

Only one week until Fall begins... my favorite season of the year... with cooler temperatures, the beauty of the changing leaves, and good times with family and friends at JMU football games...

Read on for an update on our local housing market, but first...

Each month, I offer a giveaway to the readers of my monthly market report... and this month you have the chance to win a $50 gift card to 7 Brew, a drive through coffee (plus) establishment that will soon have two locations in Harrisonburg... who has spotted the second location.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card to 7 Brew.

Each weekday (M–F) I send out a quick note related to our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.  Recent stories have included...

Stay informed by subscribing to this daily email in addition to receiving my monthly market update.  Recent 

As referenced above, we have seen 6% fewer home sales this year than last... but if we narrow it down to just detached home sales (ignoring townhomes, duplexes and condos) it's an even sharper decline...

August was an outlier again... with a 9% increase in detached homes... but otherwise we are seeing across the board declines in detached home sales with a 12% decline in the first eight months of this year compared to last year.

Meanwhile... attached homes are doing OK...

It was a busy summer for attached home sales with 23% more taking place this summer than last... contributing to a 6% year–to–date increase in attached home sales.  The 328 attached home sales seen thus far in 2025 is also 28% higher than the number of attached home sales seen in the first eight months of 2023.  

Speaking of summer... what did the summer of home sales end up looking like this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

Summer was a mixed bag it seems... higher home sales this year than last in June... but fewer in July... and then more in August!

In summary...

June 2024 through August 2024 = 379 home sales

June 2025 through August 2025 = 388 home sales

So... 2% more home sales this summer than last.  That may be an encouraging recent trend given the overall annual trend thus far...

The last time we saw mortgage interest rates below 4% was in early 2022... and 2022 was a blockbuster of a year for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  It was not surprising to then see a big drop off (1,571 down to 1,227) of home sales in 2023.

We saw an increase in home sales again in 2024... but... it didn't last long as home sales declined again in 2025.  At this point it seems certain that we will see an overall decline in home sales in 2025... though perhaps we'll have slightly more home sales this year than in 2023.

Will we see more home sales in 2026 than in 2025?  It's too early to say for sure, though mortgage interest rates have started to trend down over the past few weeks in anticipation of a possible (likely?) reduction in the federal funds rate this Wednesday.

The decline in home sales in 2025 may also be contributing to very (very) small price growth thus far in 2025...

After five years of steady, solid, significant increases in the median sales price of homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, that median sales price appears to be leveling out just shy of $350K.  If we see more home sales in 2026 (than in 2025) perhaps we will see that median sales price start to more meaningfully trend upwards again.

Side note... just as individual homes and neighborhoods did not all uniformly experience the same increases in home values as seen in the overall market over the past six years... likewise, some homes and neighborhoods have seen price growth over the past year even if the overall market has not.

And now we transition into some recent and/or forward looking trends that run counter to much of the narrative above.  Thus far we have talked about fewer home sales taking place... and prices barely rising... but now let's hit on a few more recent trends that tell a slightly different story....

We saw significantly lower numbers of buyers (and thus, sellers) signing contracts in the first half of 2025... but contracts in July 2025 exceed those signed in July 2024... and we saw significantly (!) more contract activity (139) in August 2025 as compared to the same month last year (108).  So... despite fewer home sales this year... recent months show higher levels of contract activity... pointing to a possible acceleration in local home sales.

And... when we look at the number of homes that are under contract...

The pending sales data above shows how many homes are under contract at any given time.  You'll note that this data point has been lower in 2025 (red line) than in 2024 (blue line) but that trend reversed itself in July 2025.  Perhaps it was (or seemed to be) too early to believe it last month... but now, we're seeing 322 pending home sales compared to only 262 at this time last year.  This also points to growing momentum in our local market.

And finally, one more trend that points to a reason for near–term optimism...

After seeing six months of steady growth in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... inventory levels started to decline over the past month, at least in part due to a strong surge of contract activity.

So... if we zoom out to a year or so of data, we find...

1.  Fewer home sales

2.  Tiny increases in median sales prices

But if we zoom into the past few months, we find...

1.  More home sales

2.  More contracts signed

3.  More homes under contract

4.  Falling inventory levels

So... perhaps we ought to be cautiously optimistic that after some rather significant cooling off in our local market...that we might be starting to see some modest growth and momentum.  Keeping in mind that the "cautious" part is based on plenty of data (12+ months) while the "optimistic" part is based on only a few months of data.

As per usual, we'll need to keep monitoring the overall market to get a sense of the latest local trends, while keeping in mind that all of the trends above may or may not directly relate to what you are experiencing in buying or selling a home right now... or what you will experience if you buy or sell a home soon.

All real estate is local... which is why I spend time analyzing our local market every month... but to get actionable insights to help guide you in buying a home or selling your home, we'll need to look more closely at homes in your particular price range, location, property type, etc.

1.  Don't wait on big price drops as they might not show up.  While price growth has certainly slowed (up just 1% year–to–date), prices aren't dropping overall. 

2.  Take advantage of higher inventory levels –– while they last.  Inventory had been rising for most of the year, giving you more choices –– but that trend is now reversing. 

3.  Be ready to act fast on the right home.  Despite an overall market slowdown, certain homes are still moving quickly –– especially well–priced, well–prepared homes. Get your financing lined up so you're ready to move forward quickly.

1.  Expect a slightly smaller buyer pool.  With fewer total sales this year and very little price growth, buyers are more cautious right now.  Pricing your home correctly from the start is more important than ever.

2.  It's reasonable to be optimistic based on recent buyer activity.  August showed a strong bump in contracts signed (up 29% compared to last year), and pending sales are now outpacing 2024. If your house is on the market now, or if you're planning to list this fall, you may be catching a wave of renewed buyer interest.

3.  Make sure your home competes well in a stabilizing market.  As home prices seemingly level out, buyers will be comparing your home to others more closely.  Make sure the comparison results in buyers wanting to buy your home.

Have Questions?

If you have questions about any of the data above... or about your current home or next home... reach out anytime by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email.

If it would be helpful to meet to talk things through... just let me know.  I'm happy to meet up to chat over coffee, at my office, or at your house, etc.

Until next month... enjoy the fall temperatures... the beauty of fall in the Valley... and Go Dukes!

  

When you're getting ready to sell your home –– and once it's on the market –– it's important for us to keep tabs on the competition. Buyers aren't looking at your home in a vacuum... they're comparing it to others in the same price range, location, and style.

Before We List Your Home For Sale:

We'll want to price your home competitively with other listings buyers are likely to see at the same time. That means not only looking at what recently sold, but also at what's currently on the market. If similar homes are listed lower, or offer more features, we need to take that into account.

Once You're on the Market:

We won't just set your price and forget it. We'll watch:

Are similar homes going under contract?

Are other sellers adjusting their prices?

Are new listings hitting the market as new competitors?

If you're in a segment of the market where it could take a few weeks (or longer) to go under contract, it will be more important than ever for us to monitor the marker in this way so that your home is priced and positioned in a way that increases the likelihood that we will receive an offer and successfully sell your home.

Being successful in selling your home isn't just about your own house –– it also depends on how it stacks up against the others. Let's make sure we are positioned where we want to be relative to the competition.