How quickly are homes going under contract?  It seems to vary quite a bit!

I took a look at the 217 resale homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County that have sold thus far in 2025. 

Here's the breakdown...

90 homes (42%) went under contract less than a week after they were listed for sale.

57 homes (26%) went under contract in more than a week but less than a month... bringing the total under contract within a month to 68%.

37 homes (17%) went under contract in two to three months.

33 homes (15%) went under contract after more than three months had passed.

When we are getting ready to list your home for sale, we can certainly break the data down a bit further... based on your home's price range, location, property type, etc.

 

We're now about 117 days into the year and markedly fewer home sales are coming together this year than last.

The graph above shows us that thus far this April buyers and sellers have signed 109 contracts for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County –– compared to 131 during the same timeframe last year.  This marks a 17% decline in contract activity when comparing April to April.

But let's stretch out the time horizon a bit... looking at the entire year to date...

When looking at the year thus far, we have seen 403 contracts signed this year, compared to 470 last year which equates to a 14% decline in contract activity.

What is driving this slower start to contract activity this year? 

Here are a few possible causes...

1.  Plenty of homeowners are still holding onto super low mortgage interest rates on their current homes and do not want to sell their homes, thus limiting inventory, thus limiting contract activity.

2.  After declining from April through September last year, mortgage interest rates have climbed back up above 6.5% and have stayed there thus far in 2025.  This increases monthly housing costs for potential buyers and can limit buyer activity... though those buyers do need listings to contract to buy.

3.  The stock market and broader economy have experienced some volatility thus far in 2025 which can cause some uncertainty or unease for some would be buyers and sellers.

In the end though, with inventory levels at a similar spot to where they were a year ago, it seems reasonable to mostly point to a lower number of willing sellers when trying to understand these lower contract numbers.

If the lower contract activity were a result of a lower number of willing buyers, we would likely see inventory levels climbing above where it was a year ago at this time.

We're still in the thick of the spring market, so we may yet see plenty of listings and plenty of contracts signed, but thus far... contract activity is off to a much slower start in 2025.

 

Selling a home is a significant decision that involves many moving parts. My goal is to guide you through the process with clarity and confidence, ensuring each step is handled efficiently and effectively for a smooth transition.

If you're planning to sell your home this Spring, you might wonder what your first steps should be... here are my recommendations...

First Meeting At Your House – We'll start by meeting at your home so I can get a good sense of its key features and layout. We'll talk through any updates or improvements you're considering before listing, and we'll also go over your timeline and goals for the sale to make sure we're on the same page from the start. (ready to meet?)

Determine A Game Plan – Next, we'll put together a clear plan for listing your home. I'll prepare a market analysis so we can talk through your homes value and decide on a pricing strategy that fits the current market. We'll also finalize any updates or preparations you're planning, and set a target date for getting your home on the market.

 

Listing Your Home For Sale – Once we've settled on a pricing strategy and your updates are complete, we'll be ready to get your home on the market. At this point, we'll schedule professional photos, finalize the marketing preparations, and complete the listing paperwork. Everything typically comes together within a few days – and then your home will be officially on the market for sale!

 

Reach out today if you are ready to set up a first meeting to talk about the possibility of selling your house.

 

You can learn more about what the process looks like when we work together to sell your home over here, including...

Again, if you are thinking about selling your home this Spring, let's set up a first meeting to talk things through.

 

You have been looking at houses for a while now... and some have come close to what you're looking for... but none have been quite right.

Until this one.  A new listing hit this morning and we hurried out to see it this afternoon.  You love the house.  It offers just what you are looking for and is in great condition and you love the lot and neighborhood.

There's just one problem...

 

It is reasonable to think the house is worth $425,000... but the owners have priced it at $435,000.

(As an aside – yes, I realize value is not always quite this precise, specific and objectively measured, but roll with me for the moment.)

So... the perfect house, worth $425K is offered for sale for $435K.

What would you choose to do?

Option 1 – Do nothing, because you don't want to pay $435K and you figure someone probably will pay the price.  I'm guessing you won't choose this option because we've been looking for a while and this house is a much better fit for you than the others we have considered.

Option 2 – Make an offer of $425K (or lower) and try to negotiate the price down to where you believe it should be.  We could do this... and you might choose to do this... but it is a brand new listing, and if there is the potential for other competing buyer interest then this strategy will likely lead to you not buying the house.  The lower than list price offer on Day 1 will likely result in the seller waiting to respond, hoping to gather a few more offers from other buyers.

Option 3 – Willingly, knowingly, slightly overpaying for the house.  This can sometimes be the right option to pursue.  If the price is "close enough" and the house is very, very right enough – it might not be worth trying to negotiate $5K or $10K off of the list price.  Offer the list price, make it a clean offer, hope the seller will decide to move forward with you and not pursue other offers... and know that you are paying a bit more than maybe you "should" but it is for a great house!

 

Sometimes we will go see houses that feel almost right for you... but not completely right... just almost right.

Maybe the house has everything you said was on your list, but it just doesn't have the setting, lot, surroundings or views that you were hoping you would find.

Maybe the house has all the right types of spaces and finishes but they all seem just slightly off the market related to size, layout or fitting your style or needs.

It can be really hard to decide NOT to make an offer on a house that seems like it is just about perfect for you.

Until... you walk into the home that is, indeed, exactly what you are looking for in a home.

Then, it's a completely different experience... all the past doubts of whether you should have pursued those other almost perfect houses quickly slip into the background.  

You can tell right away that it is good that you decided NOT to make an offer on those other houses that could have worked but just didn't feel quite right.

This is not to say that every buyer will be able to find a house that feels like the absolutely perfect house to them.

This is not to say that you won't have to compromise on some of what you are looking for in a home.

What I am saying is that if a house does not feel quite right (for whatever reason) it's OK to decide NOT to make an offer... that might then give you an amazing sense of relief later on in the process when we do find the house that is just right for you!

 

 

A buyer client asked me a very reasonable question recently...

Doesn't a seller get paid the same amount of money at closing regardless of whether a buyer paid cash or if they had a loan?

Indeed... they do!

Let's say you're selling a house for $350,000 and you receive two offers...

$350,000 with the buyer paying cash

As the seller, you will get paid $350,000 at closing in either of these scenarios.

But...

There is still a difference between these two offers... though we could debate whether that difference is real, perceived, theoretical, etc.

The difference in the two offers is the certainty of whether the deal will make it to closing – and thus whether the seller will receive the $350,000 at all.

The proposed contract with a buyer needing financing might proceed swimmingly... and make it to closing without any issues at all, but...

1.  The buyer's financing might not be approved if they haven't disclosed all pertinent financial details to their lender.

2.  The appraisal might come in low, impacting a buyer's ability to finance the purchase.

Meanwhile, the cash buyer does not need to obtain loan approval and does not need to have an appraisal completed satisfactorily.

So... many sellers will gravitate towards a cash offer vs. one with financing IF all of the other terms are the same.  Certainly, if there is a difference in the proposed purchase price or in other contingencies, the cash aspect of one offer might not be enough to win the day.

 

Some would–be home buyers are holding off on a home purchase right now because of how current mortgage interest rates are impacting their potential monthly payment.

But, will monthly housing costs be considerably lower in the future?

That all depends on whether mortgage interest rates drop faster than home prices rise.

Let's take a look at a sample scenario and make some guesses about the future.

If you were to consider buying a home for $325,000 today and financing 80% (an 80% loan to value ratio) of the purchase price at 6.75% your mortgage payment would be $2,017.

$325,000 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.75% = $2,017

Then, let's assume over the course of a year, the mortgage interest rates drops to 6.5%... but home prices rise 3%.

$334,750 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.50% = $2,033

Oops... the mortgage payment rose despite lower mortgage interest rates.

Then, over the following year, mortgage interest rates drop to 6.25%... but home prices rise 3%.

$344,793 home w/ 80% LTV @ 6.25% = $2,048

Again... the monthly housing cost rose.

One more time to illustrate a point you are likely already understanding... let's say over the following year mortgage interest rates drop to 6% but home prices rise 3%.

$355,136 home w/80% LTV @ 6.00% = $2,065

Hopefully this illustrates the main challenge with waiting to buy until mortgage rates fall.  That can definitely be a solid strategy –– but it relies heavily on rates falling faster than prices rise.

My illustration above was showing a 0.25% drop in mortgage interest rates a year and a 3% increase in home prices.

I'd love to say we'd see mortgage interest rates fall more quickly than that, but I don't know whether we can count on that over the next few years.

All this is to say that if you are waiting to buy a home until mortgage interest rates drop so that your housing costs will be lower –– I get it, that makes sense –– but the only way that strategy works is if mortgage rates decline. 

 

I hope they do, but it isn't something we can necessarily depend on.

If you want to talk through a variety of scenarios related to potential purchase prices, mortgage interest rates, monthly housing costs, etc. –– I'm happy to help you run some numbers, or I can connect you with a wonderful local lender.

 

It's still a relatively strong seller's market in many segments of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market, though not all.  More on that another day. 

But, back to the homes for which it is a strong seller's market... for those houses, there are often multiple offers within a few days of when they hit the market for sale.

If you're a buyer making an offer on one of those hot new listings you will likely make as strong of an offer as you are willing and able to make.

But... sometimes, your offer will lose because of something you cannot or will not do.

For example...

If you don't have cash to pay for the house... you cannot make a cash offer.  If someone else does have cash, there is a high likelihood that their offer will be accepted.

If you will not buy a house without doing a home inspection... then you will not make an offer without an inspection contingency.  If another buyer is willing to make an offer without an inspection contingency, there is a high likelihood that their offer will be accepted.

So, make the strongest offer that you are able or willing to make... but know that other buyers might be able or willing to make stronger offers... and if they do, their offer will likely be selected by the seller.

  

Nearly every home has features that might give some buyers pause. Here are just a few examples of things that can trigger hesitation:

If you're planning to sell soon, let's walk through your home together. We can try to anticipate any common buyer objections – and make a plan for how to respond to them.

 

 

Let's take a specific look at what you might expect if you're hoping to buy a home soon – and you're working with a deadline.

 

Hopefully your taxes are done, filed, and maybe even bringing a refund your way.

 

Before we dive into the data, a quick personal update...

 

 
I’ve been hitting the trails again lately, training for a half marathon later this month and a 50K trail race (5K x 10) in early May. I ran the same 50K last year without quite enough training… and while I did finish, it wasn’t exactly the finish I had in mind.  This time, I’m hoping a bit more preparation will make it feel less like a survival exercise and maybe even a little fun. (Maybe.)

 

Wish me luck, and let me know if you want to join me on a trail run!

This Month’s Giveaway: Brunch on Me?
 
Each month I like to say thanks to my readers with a local giveaway. This time around, I’m giving away a $50 gift card to Clementine – a downtown Harrisonburg favorite with an excellent weekend brunch lineup.  
 
Hungry yet? Click here to enter to win your chance at brunch at Clementine.

  

 

First up, the overall market through three months...

 

  

In short: prices are still inching upward, just at a much more modest pace than we’ve gotten used to over the past five years.

  

Now, let's look just at detached homes...

  

  

So, with fewer detached homes hitting the market, it's not too surprising to see prices rising more quickly in that segment. Fewer sellers + steady demand = upward pressure on prices.

  

Now how about those attached homes?

  

  

So, in short: it's somewhat easier to find an attached homes to buy, and price growth has been more modest thanks to a better balance between supply and demand.

  

When we zoom in on just the City of Harrisonburg, things get wacky...

  

  

Read it, and read it again.  Only 12 homes sold in the City in March!?!  This is a sharp 54% drop compared to last March. A one–month fluke? Maybe not.

Less inventory, steady demand, higher prices – it's a familiar formula.

  

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

  

  

More homes to buy = more sales = more modest price growth. It all comes back to supply and demand, as usual.

  

One more chart (existing home sales) before we get to the pretty graphs... hang in there...

  

  

One likely reason? There just aren't enough existing homes hitting the market. And that continued low supply is still putting upward pressure on prices. The median sales price of existing homes is up 8% year–over–year – a stronger increase than we're seeing in the market overall.

  

Now, a visual of the slow start of 2025...

  

  

Fewer homes sold in January than the year before – and the same story played out in February and March. Will things pick up in April and May? That's going to depend on one big question: Will enough homeowners decide it's time to sell?

  

Next, here's a smoothed out version of our local market trends...

  

  

Will we see sales pick back up later this year?  Will that 3% price growth hold steady?  Stay tuned – 2025 still has plenty of story left to tell.

  

And now, the best predictor of future sales... recent contracts...

  

  

The sellers? Not quite as eager. And that's what continues to shape the market as we roll through 2025.

  

We've been picking on homeowners not selling... let's look at the inventory numbers...

  

  

Will inventory climb higher in April and May? That would certainly be noteworthy... but I'm not expecting that we'll see that happen. Buyers are still quick to pounce on new listings, keeping overall inventory levels in check.

  

Finally, let's look at mortgage interest rates...

  

  

I'd love to say we're heading back to sub–6% rates later in 2025... but at the moment, that doesn't seem likely.

  

Now, having absorbed all of those numbers and charts, here's what you need to know...

  

  

1. Be Ready to Act Quickly

  

Inventory remains low – especially for detached and existing homes – so when the right property comes along, hesitation can mean missing out. Get pre–approved, know what you’re looking for, and be ready to make a move.
  
2. Have Reasonable Expectations About Pricing

  

Prices aren't skyrocketing like they were a few years ago, but they're still inching upward. Detached homes and existing homes, in particular, are seeing stronger price growth. Budget accordingly.
  
3. Will You Broaden Your Search?

  

Attached homes – and new homes – are seeing more availability and slower price growth. If you're feeling priced out of the detached or resale home market, consider exploring this segment for more options and slightly less competition.

  

  

1. The Buyers Are Still Out There

  

While overall sales have slowed, buyer demand is still strong – especially when a home is well–presented and priced appropriately. Many homes are going under contract quickly, especially if they're move–in ready.
  
2. Price Strategically Based on Your Market Segment

  

Detached homes have seen stronger price growth than attached homes. In the City, prices are rising faster than in the County. Let's work together to understand where your home fits in and price it accordingly.
  
3.  The Perfect Time Is Now (said all the buyers)

  

Inventory is still tight, and buyers are active. They would love for you to sell your home!  If you think 2025 is your year, let's talk through your timing, goals and where you'll land next to see if selling now will work well for you.

  

  

If you found this month's market update helpful – wonderful! And if you're left with questions (big or small) about what all of this means for your home, your plans, or your potential move, I'm always happy to chat.
  
You can reach me anytime by phone or text at 540–578–0102, or send me an email here.
  
Whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market – I'm here to help however I can.

 

A home seller is thrilled – an offer is in hand, negotiations are complete, and the contract is signed at $500,000. Maybe it was even a multiple–offer scenario. Everything seems to be moving along nicely...
 
Until the appraisal comes in at $475,000.
 
Now what?
 
Well, it depends – mostly on the terms of the contract and how the offer was negotiated in the first place.
 
If the contract is contingent on the property appraising at or above the purchase price:
 
The buyer will likely come back to the seller and ask:
 
"Would you be willing to reduce the purchase price to match the appraised value of $475,000?"
 
If the contract isn't contingent on the appraisal, but the buyer's financing can't move forward due to the low appraisal:
 
Then the buyer may not be able to close on the purchase – even if they want to – because their loan is now in jeopardy.
 
If the contract isn't contingent on the appraisal, and the buyer's loan is unaffected by the low value:
 
Then things will proceed as planned, with the buyer still purchasing the home for $500,000, even though it only appraised for $475,000.
 
And in a competitive situation when there were multiple offers?
 
The buyer might be completely fine with paying $25K over the appraised value if it means they get the house.
 
But here's the thing... these scenarios are all being considered after the appraisal comes in low. Ideally, these questions should be discussed before an offer is made and accepted.
 
For Buyers:
 
Are you willing to pay more than the appraised value if needed?
 
Does your loan structure allow for that possibility?
 
For Sellers:
 
Will the presence or absence of an appraisal contingency impact which offer you accept?
 
If your contract is contingent on the appraisal, keep in mind that your sale price isn't set in stone until that appraisal is in.
 
Appraisals are a routine part of most transactions – but when they come in low, they can change everything. Buyers and sellers alike are wise to understand how this piece of the puzzle fits into their deal before it's a surprise.

 

That's an interesting stat... only 33 homes (single family homes, duplexes, townhomes, apartments) where built in Harrisonburg in 2024.

That is based on the number of times the City issued a Certificate of Occupancy, and you can see the numbers going back to 2021 in the chart above.

This data is from a recent Residential Use–Approved Development Update provided by City staff to City Council.

For your enjoyment, download the memo and slide deck.

Some other snippets of interest...

The City estimates that 60% of housing units are rented and 40% are owned.

 

The City estimates that 40% of housing units are single family detached homes, 24% are attached and 15% are multi–family dwellings.

The City estimates that over 4,000 housing units are in "the pipeline" of being potentially developed.

4,000 is so much larger than 33

How could there be over 4,000 potential units with only 33 being completed last year?  As the City memo notes... "Use approval is not a guarantee of development."

How many homes will we see built (completed) in the City in 2025!?

 

Much to the dismay of many home buyers, a seller is typically going to respond to offers whenever they want to respond to offers.

This is largely a market driven phenomenon – it's a seller's market.  If there were more sellers than buyers, and thus a buyer's market, many sellers would likely feel more obligated to try to abide by a buyer's wishes.

Let's consider a few scenarios we might encounter in the current market...

Buyer:  I'm going to make my offer today, with a response deadline of tomorrow at 10:00 AM.  That will surely offer cause the seller to respond by that time.

Seller:  Three other agents indicate they will be sending offers tomorrow morning at some point – and this buyer with the 10AM deadline will likely still want the house tomorrow afternoon – so I'll respond to offers when I want to respond to offers.

...or...

Buyer:  They only have two offers as of this evening, and they told us they would respond by tomorrow morning, so I have a 50/50 shot at getting this house!

Seller:  I'll wait another day to respond to offers –– oh, what's that –– four more offers?  Fantastic!

...or...

Buyer:  The seller indicates they will respond to offers tomorrow at 12:00 PM so I'll wait and get my offer to them tomorrow morning.

Seller:  I have four amazing offers this evening – I'll go ahead and move forward with one of these offers.

So... yeah... it can get rough out there.

Sellers will (in the current market) likely respond to offers whenever they want to do so... and it might change to be earlier or later.

So, buyers, in most circumstances you will want to go ahead and make an offer (your strongest offer) just as soon as you are ready to do so –– and then patiently wait for a response.

 

I have met with quite a few homeowners over the years who end up making some predictable home improvements just prior to selling their home:

All of these are lovely improvements to make... but all of these homeowners would have enjoyed their home even more if they had made the updates or improvements five years before they sold their home... rather than five weeks before they sold their home.

So, while I know your renovation or remodel budget likely isn't infinite... if there are some changes or improvements you would likely want to make before you sell your home... and you don't plan to sell your home for at least five years... make the improvements now!

You will not only have a great home five years from now... that will be appealing to buyers... but you'll also enjoy the improved home yourself for the next five years!

If you need recommendations for professionals to help you with these projects, just let me know!

 

Short answer... probably not.

But, let's get into the slightly longer answer...

You are excited to buy a new home BUT you need to sell one in order to buy.

No problem, you've heard that you can just include a home sale contingency in your offer to buy your new house, and all will be well.

Or will it...

Most sellers in the current market (in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area) are not likely to accept your offer with a home sale contingency.

But why!?

Well... it's basically just trading needing to sell one house... for needing to sell another.

If the owners of the home you would like to purchase have finally reached the finish line of getting their home on the market for sale... they are likely now primed to get it sold, and get to closing.

A buyer without a home sale contingency offers a concrete plan for accomplishing the seller's goal... I will buy your house.

If you make an offer with a home sale contingency, your plan for accomplishing the seller's goal is a bit more complex... I will buy your house once someone buys my house.

In some ways, your plan (I'll buy after I sell) keeps the seller in the same exact spot they already were –– needing a house to sell.

But in some ways, your plan puts them in a worse spot... they don't need their house to sell (over which they have control of the price, condition and marketing)... they need your house to sell, and they do not have control over the price, condition and marketing.

So... if you are excited to buy a home, but you need to sell a home first, we'll need to discuss some alternative strategies for doing so, as we likely won't want to depend on an offer with a home sale contingency getting you to the finish line.

 

Perhaps you have been living in a large, two–story home for the past 20 years, and perhaps you are ready to downsize to a one level living home.

Or... perhaps you have a parent who is ready to move to a one level home.

If so, below is a summary of some of the communities where you might consider buying your next home in and close to Harrisonburg... and the types of properties you might buy in those communities.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few, so drop me a line here to let me know.

Looking at townhouses as one example of local investment properties, let's see how their property values have changed over the past five years.  

Here's the median sales price of attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

In 2020 = $193,000

In 2025 = $320,000

So, property values have increased (+66%) over the past five years.  And... mortgage interest rates have also increase significantly...

In 2020 = 3.5% to 4%

In 2025 = 6% to 7%

Given these two variables, let's look a rough potential cash flow situation in each year...

In 2020...

Property Value = $193,000

Interest Rate = 4%

Monthly Mortgage Payment = $925 (75% LTV, includes HOA fee)

Monthly Rental Income = $1,200

Cash Flow = + $275 / month

In 2025...

Property Value = $275,000 (rounded down a bit from the median)

Interest Rate = 7%

Monthly Mortgage Payment = $1,700 (75% LTV, includes HOA fee)

Monthly Rental Income = $1,650

Cash Flow = – $50 / month

So, what does all of this mean for investor buyers or investor sellers?

Would–be buyers of investment properties often have difficulty making the cash flow make sense even if they're only financing 75% of the purchase price.  

Even though rental rates have increased significantly over the past five years, property values have increased even more rapidly, and mortgage interest rates make it difficult to achieve positive cash flow.

But...

Would–be sellers of investment properties care considerably less about the cash flow of the properties they are selling.  They are generally delighted by the significantly higher property values they obtain when selling their property.

Of note, many of these investment properties are being purchased by owner occupants.  If an investor buyer can't make the numbers work... there are plenty of people who are looking to buy their first home who are happy to purchase these investment properties that are being sold.

So... if you are looking to buy an investment property... be realistic about the likely cash flow dynamics... and if you are considering selling an investment property... you'll likely be thrilled by the price a buyer will currently pay for your property.

 

You excitedly make an offer on a new listing of interest and you think you've made a reasonably strong offer.

List Price = $300,000

Your Offer:

Let's say our market analysis shows your house is worth $350K... and you'd be happy to sell your house for $350K... but you'd be THRILLED to sell your house for $360K.

What is your best path towards actually selling your house for $360,000?

The answer is almost always C... both on multiple choice tests (don't they say that?) and in my theoretical question above.

Here's how things might play out at each list price...

It might seem like pricing your home at $365K – slightly above where you'd be thrilled to end up ($360K) is the best way to get to $360K... but... it might very well backfire.  

Plenty of buyers will potentially walk through and conclude that your home is worth $350K (like our market analysis indicated) and then decide not to make an offer since you priced your home at $365K.

After all... if your home is priced at $365K and they think it's worth $350K... they might feel the need to make an offer of $340K (or so) to try to talk you down to $350K.  And what buyer would make an offer of $340K on a house listed for $365K in the first few days it is on the market?

This strategy could work... a smidge below your really thrilling goal of a sales price of $360,000.  But... the same logic above applies here too... a buyer who thinks your house is worth $350K might feel like they need to make an unrealistically low offer to try to get you down to $350K... and thus might not make an offer at all.

In theory, every buyer who likes your house, who thinks it is priced appropriately and reasonably at $349,900 will want to make an offer.

Furthermore, some of those buyers may very well decide they would be willing to pay a bit ($5K to $10K?) above your asking price if there are multiple offers.

Keep in mind... this pricing strategy doesn't always work for every property in every price point in every location... but pricing your home reasonably is often your best strategy for selling your house for more than that list price.