When it comes time to buy or sell a home, one of the first numbers people often focus on is the square footage. But not all square footage carries the same weight – especially when you’re comparing above grade (main living levels) to below grade (typically basement) space.

Let’s take a look at three homes, each with 4,000 square feet of finished living space:

Home A: 4,000 SF above grade; no basement

Home B: 3,000 SF above grade; 1,000 SF finished basement

Home C: 2,000 SF above grade; 2,000 SF finished basement

Even though all three homes offer the same total amount of finished space, they would not be priced the same – by buyers or appraisers.

Why? Because square footage above grade is generally more valuable than space below grade.

Key Takeaways...

1. Price Per Square Foot Can Be Deceiving

When calculating price per square foot, the total finished space is often used – regardless of whether that space is above or below grade. That can skew comparisons. A home with much of its living space in the basement might look like a great deal based on price per SF, but it's not apples–to–apples with a home where all that space is above grade.

2. Compare Like With Like When Pricing Your Home

If you're preparing to sell, it's important to look at recently sold homes that are structurally similar to yours – not just in size, but in how that space is distributed. A 3,000 SF ranch with a finished basement isn't directly comparable to a 3,000 SF two–story with no basement space.

3. Don’t Be Surprised by Pricing Differences

You might come across two homes with the same total finished square footage but noticeably different price tags. Often, the difference comes down to where that space is located. Buyers typically place a premium on above grade living space – especially for bedrooms, kitchens, and main living areas. Basement space can add value, but it's usually seen as secondary living area.

   

If you're thinking about listing your home for sale, you might be tempted to wait until Thursday or Friday – just in time for the weekend traffic, right? Not so fast. There are actually some solid reasons why putting your home on the market earlier in the week (think Monday or Tuesday) can work in your favor. Let's take a look at three of them.

1. More buyers are paying attention earlier in the week.

While weekends are popular for showings, many serious buyers are actively watching new listings the moment they hit the market – and that's often during the work week. If you list early in the week, your home has a better chance of being seen (and scheduled for showings) by those eager buyers keeping a close eye on their saved searches.

2. Buyers need time to talk to their lenders.

In today's competitive market, most buyers want to be pre–approved before they make an offer – and that often means a quick check–in with their lender. Listing your home earlier in the week gives interested buyers a bit of breathing room to get their financial ducks in a row before the weekend, when they might be ready to write an offer.

3. Weekends aren't as reliable as you'd think.

Yes, some buyers are out and about on the weekends, but many are also out of town, juggling kids' sports schedules, or catching up on errands or life. When your listing goes live early in the week, you catch the attention of buyers while they're still in town and in "house hunting" mode – not halfway through a weekend getaway.

The bottom line:

Listing earlier in the week can give your home more visibility, a better shot at weekend showings, and an edge with serious buyers who are ready to act. 

  

If you're buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County right now, you've probably noticed – there just aren't that many homes on the market.

When inventory is low, it's important to broaden your perspective just a bit. While we'll absolutely keep an eye out for the perfect house, we should also plan to visit homes that are close to what you're looking for –– even if they're missing a feature or two on your wish list.

Why? Because photos don't always tell the full story. 

Sometimes a home that looks just "okay" online feels much better in person. And every so often, a house that's slightly off your radar ends up being a surprisingly great fit with a little creativity or a small renovation.

So yes, let's keep that ideal home in mind. But let's also be open to the "almost right" ones –– they might just turn out to be perfect after all.

   

Sometimes a seller receives multiple GREAT offers on a house – but in the end they can only accept one of them.

It can be frustrating for qualified buyers who make strong offers to not be able to purchase a house that they love.

Sometimes, however...

1.  There are multiple buyers who love the house.

2.  There are multiple buyers who are very qualified to buy the house.

3.  There are multiple buyers who are willing to pay more than the asking price.

4.  There are multiple buyers who are willing to remove an inspection contingency.

Sellers in such a situation are typically delighted by the multiple strong offers –– but often find themselves having to say "no" to buyers who proposed very reasonable and strong offer terms –– because they can only say "yes" to one buyer.

To those sellers... congrats and good luck picking the best of multiple great offers.

To those buyers... condolences and know that the "no" you received may not have been a result of any deficiencies in your offer... just that there were multiple buyers making super compelling offers.

    

The average 30 year mortgage interest rate has been above 6% for the past three years (2022–2025) and sometimes we think of that in the context of mortgage interest rates having been below 4% between 2019 and 2021... but it can be helpful to look back even further for a broader perspective.

One way of breaking down the mortgage interest rates over time is as follows, with 5% and 7% being the break points.

1995 – 2002:  Rates were mostly above 7%.

2002 – 2010:  Rates were mostly between 5% and 7%.

2010 – 2022:  Rates were below 5%.

2022 – 2025:  Rates have been mostly between 5% and 7%.

Look ahead at the next three to five years, I think it is most likely that we will continue to see mortgage interest rates between 5% and 7%.

It is possible, but I think extremely unlikely that they will be below 5% again.

It is possible, but I think relatively unlikely that they will rise meaningfully above 7% and stay there.

If you're borrowing money via a mortgage to buy a house (most buyers are) then you will be paying some cost of borrowing that money in the way of a mortgage interest rate.  

The range of mortgage interest rates we have been seeing over the past three years seems likely to be what we'll see over the next three years... though perhaps we'll see rates drop a bit back towards 6% or even down to below 5% and 6%.

  

So, home buyers – don't wait for ultra–low rates to return – we are likely to be staying in the 5% to 7% range for a while – so focus on finding a home that fits your budget in the current mortgage interest rate environment.

And home sellers – with buyers more sensitive to monthly payments, pricing your home competitively is key to attracting serious interest.

  

Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale) have risen over the past several months in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

December 2024 = 138

January 2025 = 140

February 2025 = 150

March 2025 = 170

April 2025 = 176

But, let's keep it in perspective...

Inventory levels are (slightly) lower now than they were a year ago (175 vs. 186) and they are lower now than they were in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

The last time inventory levels rose above current levels (for more than a month was between July 2023 and February 2024.

If you are hoping to buy a home now or soon, you have somewhat more choices now than you would have had for most of the past year –– but not by much –– and it largely depends on your price range and the type of property you would like to buy.

If you are planning to sell a home soon, you might have slightly more competition –– maybe –– again, depending on your price range and the type of property you will be selling.

To make this data more meaningful for you, we will dive a bit deeper into the data to look just at a particular property type, location and price range.

 

I ran the numbers on this a few months ago but it's worth another look... and this time I stretched back even further to build a broader context.

Before Covid, before super low mortgage interest rates, we were seeing somewhere between 10% and 20% of homes selling over the asking price. 

Though... as we moved from 2016 through 2019 we started to see a gradual increase in the number of homes that were selling for more than the asking price.

  

And then, in 2020, things started to heat up... with 25% of homes selling over the asking price.

But in 2021... yikes... a full 43% of homes sold over the asking price.

That 40% plus threshold only stuck around for two years (2021 and 2022) but we have been in the 30% range ever since.

Despite mortgage interest rates leaving that super low (below 4%) range, we still see about a third of homes selling for more than the asking price.

So... when you list your home for sale... will you end up selling it for more than the asking price?

Quite possibly... that happens with about a third of homes these days... though it is largely dependent on how you price your home.

 

In which month do the most homes go under contract in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

#1 – May

#2 – March (just barely behind May)

#3 – April

So, we're just about through the three busiest months of the year for homes going under contract.

But, worry not, as these are the next three most active months...

#4 – August

#5 – June

#6 – July

And, as shown on the graph above, all three of those months are really (really) close.

So... we may be just finishing up the three most active months of the year, but we're about to enter the three next–most active months of the year.

Poor November and December... they hold the smallest share of contract activity.

By the way... on the methodology here...

I took the number of contracts signed per month and determined what portion of that year's contracts took place in during that month.

In other words, what percentage of 2024 contracts were signed in January... what percentage were signed in February, etc. 

And, then, for good measure – I averaged the past five years to get try to account for any single month in a single year abnormalities.

Does anything on the graph above surprise you?

 

Way back in May 2023 the former Rosetta Stone building in downtown Harrisonburg (all 47,860 SF of it) sold for $2,950,000... complete with 27 on–site parking spots.

Now, it seems this building will be converted into 89 affordable housing units, right in downtown Harrisonburg!

This new apartment complex will be called the Flats at West Market and will be possible due in part to a $1.2 million grant from the Commonwealth of Virginia's Housing Investment Program.

This $1.2 million grant going towards the Flats at West Market was a part of an overall  $17 million investment in workforce housing across Virginia.

Read more about the Flats at West Market as well as the Virginia Housing Investment Program via a variety of additional reporting below.

The Citizen:

Daily News Record: 

  

Governor Youngkin's Press Release: 

WHSV: 

 

There have been quite a few City resale townhomes listed for sale over the past month... but before we get there, let's build a bit of context...

When looking at City townhomes built between 2000 and 2020 here's the pace of sales over the past two years...

2023 = 56 townhome sales = 4.7 / month

2024 = 58 townhome sales = 4.8 / month

Thus far in 2025, however, we have seen far fewer sales...

2025 (through end–ish of May) = 16 sales = 3.2 / month

As we know... a sale requires both a buyer and a seller... and perhaps that lower number of townhome sales in the first (almost) five months of this year were a result of a lower number of townhome owners listing their townhouse for sale.

But now, we're seeing quite a few more City townhome owners ready to sell.

In the past 30 days we have seen nine such townhomes listed for sale, including new listings in these neighborhoods...

If we add in the three other townhomes that were listed prior to 30 days ago, these are the current listings of City townhomes built between 2000 and 2020...

And are buyers snapping up these fresh new listings?

Some of them.

Of the (12) total resale City townhomes (circa 2000–2020) four of them are under contract and that leaves these eight townhouses.

So, if you are looking to buy a City townhouse –– to live in, or as an investment property –– you have some options!

 

If your lease doesn't end for another six months, you might think it's too soon to start looking at homes. In many cases, however, starting your search early can actually be helpful to you as a buyer.  Here's why...

The longer we've been looking at houses together, the greater amount of context you'll have about our local market. You'll start to understand what different price points get you in various neighborhoods, how quickly homes are selling, and what features matter most to you. That kind of insight is hard to gain in just a few weeks if you wait to start looking at houses.

Getting a head start also gives you the luxury of time. If you wait too long, you may find yourself feeling rushed or pressured as your lease deadline approaches. Starting now means you can explore your options at your own pace and move forward with confidence when the right home comes along.

Finally, in a low inventory market (like we're currently seeing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County) when you explore houses for a longer timeframe (a few months instead of a few weeks) you will have more houses to consider.  Each house that hits the market won't be a perfect fit, so the more properties we can consider, the better your chances of finding one that you love.

Bottom line – you don't need to wait to start your home search until you're ready to make a buying decision. Home buyers who start a bit earlier usually find themselves to be more informed, to better understand market dynamics, and to feel less stressful.  So, if you're thinking about buying in the next 6 months, let's talk sooner rather than later.

 

When we're getting ready to list your home for sale, you might to start wondering how quickly it will sell – and for how much.  One of the most important things to keep in mind is that the strongest offer (or offers!) will likely come in the first week your home is on the market for sale.

That first week creates a unique window of opportunity – both for you as the seller and for the buyers who have been eagerly waiting for a home just like yours to hit the market.

Those eager buyers have been looking at houses for weeks (or months) and may have missed out on other houses in a multiple offer scenario.  Thus, they are typically highly motivated, pre–approved for a mortgage, and ready to act quickly when the right house hits the market.

If your home is a good fit, they'll be among the first to schedule a showing – and often, the first to make an offer.

In that first week, your home is new, fresh, and drawing lots of attention from buyers. Every buyer who sees the listing knows that others are also seeing it for the first time. That creates a sense of urgency... if they love the house, they need to move fast.  

This competitive mindset often results in stronger offers, and sometimes even multiple offers, especially if the home is priced right.

After a week (or two) buyer psychology can start to shift a bit.

Once your home has been on the market for a week or two, the dynamic sometimes starts to change. New buyers might wonder why it hasn't sold yet. Some could assume it's not priced competitively enough.  Others may see it as an opportunity to negotiate on price or other terms.

The longer your home sits on the market, the more leverage shifts away from you and toward the buyer.

So, What's the Best Strategy?

Price your home to attract strong, early interest. That doesn't mean underpricing it – but it does mean setting a competitive price that motivates serious buyers to act quickly and put their best offer on the table.

If you overprice your home with the intention of negotiating down later, you may miss that critical first–week momentum... and ultimately end up leaving money on the table.
 

City Council recently approved a special use permit to allow for 40 apartments to be built on 1.93 acres on Erickson Avenue... adjacent(ish) to the Walmart Super Center.

Read all about it over in the City Council meeting documents here.

Here are some of the high points...

 

If you are getting ready to move, you might be focused on preparing to sell your current home – but there's another option worth considering... keeping it as a rental property. In some cases, renting out your home instead of selling it can offer both short–term cash flow and long–term investment benefits.

Here in Harrisonburg, rental demand remains strong with most owners of rental properties seeing strong (and rising) rental rates, tenants staying for multiple years, and very short vacancies (if any) between tenants. So, if your home is in good condition and in a desirable location, it could be a great candidate for a long–term rental.

Of course, being a landlord isn't for everyone. You'll want to think through the responsibilities of property management, the potential for vacancies or repairs, and whether you're comfortable holding onto the property for several more years. But for many homeowners, especially those moving locally or with enough equity to refinance, it's a strategy that can build wealth over time.

Before making a decision, it's smart to run the numbers. What would your monthly mortgage payment be if you kept the house? How much rent could you realistically expect to receive? I’d be happy to help you explore what's possible based on the current market trends in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

If you're curious whether your home would make a good rental, or just want to better understand your options, let's chat. Selling is still a great choice in many situations – but it's not the only option.

  

There isn't really a one size fits all strategy that we can use to answer this question.  As is often the case, it depends...

Here are some of the perspectives we will be considering when we discuss what improvements you might make before you sell your home...

We do need to start with what is actually possible given your timeline and budget.  You might need to sell ASAP and thus might not have the time to make many or any improvements.  You might have very limited cash on hand to fund improvements.

We'll want to consider which improvements that you might make would have the most impact on a prospective buyer's first impressions of your home.  This might be landscaping, pressure washing, painting your front door or replacing the light fixtures outside your front door. 

We want a prospective buyer to feel excited and optimistic about your home and its condition as they pull up to your house in their car and as they walk up to the front door.

If there are homes going under contract quickly in your neighborhood, we'll want to see what updates those homeowners made before selling.

The cost of buying a home has increased quite a bit over the past five years due to several main factors...

1.  Higher home prices.  :–)

2.  Higher mortgage interest rates.

3.  Higher real estate tax rates.

Which leaves some would–be home buyers wondering... will it be more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg in 1, 3 or 5 years?

I think the answer is "probably not" – but let's dig in a bit...

Home Prices – Even as mortgage interest rates have pushed monthly housing costs higher and higher over the past few years, home prices have kept on rising.  It seems very likely that this will continue to be the case over the next 1, 3 and 5 years – thus changes in home prices will probably not make it more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.

Mortgage Interest Rates – It is certainly possible that we will see lower mortgage interest rates in 1, 3 or 5 years.  Mortgage interest rates are currently staying mostly between 6.5% and 7%.  If they fell to 6% or 5.5% or 5%, each reduction would make it more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.  That said, if it takes three years for rates to meaningfully decline, and home prices have risen during that timeframe, homes might not be any more affordable.

Real Estate Tax Rates – While there have been some periods of time when real estate rates have declined, they almost always stay steady or increase.  We shouldn't count on lower real estate tax rates in the next five years to help with housing affordability.

New Construction – New home communities can be a bit of a wildcard that could help it become more affordable to buy a home in Harrisonburg.  If enough new homes are built (at a variety of price points) that could slow the increase in home prices over time.  Do note, however, that for buying to become more affordable, these new homes would have to be offered at prices that might not be possible given rising construction costs.

So... if you conclude that it is too expensive to buy a home in Harrisonburg today, should you expect it to be more affordable to buy such a home in 1, 3 or 5 years?  It's certainly possible, but it doesn't seem likely an overly likely trajectory.

Want to chat more about the market, the buying process or real estate in general?  Reach out anytime.

 

As referenced earlier this week, fewer homeowners are selling these days.

Jan – Apr existing (resale) home sales in 2024 = 290

Jan – Apr existing (resale) home sales in 2025 = 243

So, what is motivating some homeowners to sell, and others to stay put?

Homeowners are often staying put because...

1.  They love their house and it works great for them now and into the future.

2.  Their house works reasonably well for them and they have a sub 4% mortgage interest rate, making the idea of selling and purchasing not so exciting given how their mortgage payment would increase.

I think a lot of homeowners (most? nearly all?) fit into one of those two categories above.

The homeowners who are selling may be doing so because...

1.  A job change is taking them to another market.

2.  Their home really doesn't work well for them any longer relative to size, space, layout, school district, etc.

3.  They are moving to a retirement community.

4.  They are moving out of the area to live near kids and grand kids.

5.  They are downsizing because kids are grown and gone.

What's not on this list?

Given the current mortgage interest rates of most homeowners (low) and the today's mortgage interest rates (higher than low) there aren't many homeowners who are selling just to move to a slightly larger home, or a slightly nicer home, or a slightly better location.

This is often referred to as the "lock–in effect" whereby many homeowners are hesitant to sell their current home because they have a low mortgage interest rate – often much lower than current rates.  Selling and buying a new home would mean taking on a new mortgage at a higher rate, resulting in a significantly higher monthly payment.  This financial disincentive is causing many homeowners to stay put, even if they might otherwise be ready to move.

Will you be selling your home yet this year?  If so, what will cause you to sell?  Did it make it onto my list, or did I miss something?

 

You're early in the home search process so while we have started looking at houses, you haven't secured a pre–approval letter yet.

We have looked at 10 houses thus far, and while we have seen some pretty good options, we haven't found anything that has been an ideal fit for you and your family.

And then... the perfect house hits the market...

We go see the house, you love it as much as we both know you will even before we walk in the door.

But you still don't have that pre–approval letter.

While you are calling a lender to work on your pre–approval, other buyers are writing offers on this fresh new listing.

Why?

 

Because (as a buyer recently pointed out to me) the perfect house for you is likely to be the perfect house for others.

Whatever your combination of ideals is for a house... related to size, style, location, price, layout, finishes... there are likely other buyers who have those same ideals.

So... if the perfect house for you might hit the market any day now (it's springtime, so yes, it's quite possible) then I encourage you to go ahead and get pre–approved for a mortgage now rather than later.

When the perfect house hits the market, I want you to be in the "drafting an offer" club... not in the "still needs to talk to a lender" club.

 

Track new listings here.

Reach out if you want to set up a time to talk about buying a home.

 

We're mid–way through May and today I bring you a personal update, a fun reader giveaway, and an in–depth look at the latest trends in our local housing market.  But first...

If you will be selling your house soon, or if you are starting to consider a home purchase, I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email.  

You can also subscribe to my daily email newsletter to learn more about the market and the buying and selling process over time.

Since my last update, I had a great time running in the Park to Park Half Marathon (Stuarts Draft to Waynesboro) and in the Perfect Day 50K.  

This was the start of who knows which lap of the (10) 5K laps at the Perfect Day 50K on the Western Slopes of Massanutten.

Given what appear to be rain drops, i think this was the last (10th) 5K loop.  The rain held off all the way until the end of the day.

Dirty shoes, tired legs, but I made it through.

I don't have my next race planned yet – I plan to just do some running because I enjoy running over the coming weeks and months. One such fun run will be on Saturday morning out at Natural Chimneys during the Red Wing Roots Music Festival... coming up before we know it... June 20 – 22.  

Red Wing is always a highlight of my summer –– great music, a beautiful setting, wonderful community and more.  If you haven't been before, consider coming out for the day on Saturday, coming each day, or getting a campsite and staying over!  

If you're feeling lucky, enter for a chance to win (2) three day tickets to Red Wing here.  If you're not feeling as lucky, just go ahead and buy the tickets here.  ;–)

Now, after all that, let's take a look at the latest data and trends in our local housing market.  I will warn you up front that there are some interesting, somewhat contradictory and perplexing numbers to consider this month...

The 100 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in April 2025 marked an 11% decline from 112 a year ago and a 22% decline from two years ago.  April was a much slower than usual month in our local market.

Expanding the scope a bit, the past three months (Feb – Apr) have also been slower than normal with a 15% decline in the number of homes that are selling this year as compared to the same timeframe last year.

When we look back a full 12 months, however, we see that there have been 7% more home sales than in the previous year.  So, we were starting to see an increase in home sales over the past year... but that has slowed considerably over the past few months.

Prices, meanwhile, are increasing but more slowly than in recent years.  Looking at a 3–month, 6–month and 12–month timeframe we're seeing a 2%, 3% and 4% increase in the median sales price. 

So... we're seeing fewer home sales here lately... but median sales prices are still increasing.

Let's take attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) out of the mix and see how things change...

If you have been trying to buy a detached home you might have had an even more difficulty time doing so over the past few months.  We have seen 21% fewer detached home sales over the past three months (Feb–Apr) compared to the same time last year.

I'll pause there, though, to point out a context for all of this that has not yet been shown in the numbers.  

Fewer home sales is typically a result of either fewer buyers wanting to buy or fewer sellers being willing to sell.  When I say (above) that it is difficult to buy a detached home, that is because the current reduction in home sales seems to be almost entirely a result of fewer sellers selling... not fewer buyers wanting to buy.

You'll see this more clearly when we get to some inventory trends below.

Back to the detached homes... those sales have dropped 21% over the past three months (compared to the same three months last year) as compared to a 15% market–wide drop... but the median sales price of those detached homes has increased 9% over the past year.

Perhaps the comparatively tighter detached home market has created more upward pressure on prices?

In contrast, let's see what's happening with attached homes...

We are also seeing a decrease in attached home sales (townhomes, duplexes and condos) but it is not as significant (–5%) as the overall market (–15%). 

 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the 9% year over year increase in the median sales price of detached homes... we're only seeing a 2% year over year increase in the median sales price of attached homes.

Breaking things down geographically, here's the last in City home sales...

My oh my!  City homeowners just don't want to sell.  We have seen a 42% drop (from 76 to 44) in City home sales when comparing the past three months (Feb–Apr) to the same months last year.

Just as with detached homes, along with a larger decrease in the number of homes that are selling, we're seeing a larger increase in the median sales price.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

The decrease in home sales in the City (–42%) over the past three months is much more significant than in the County (–7%) over the same timeframe.

And, perhaps as we would therefore expect, the increase in the median sales price in the City (+8%) is much more significant than in the County (+3%) over the past year.

What happens when we take out new homes and just look at the resale market?  Let's take a look...

Refreshing your memory... here's are three figures from the overall (new and resale) market... side by side with resale (existing) home sales only...

# Home Sales (Feb–Apr):  –15% all homes, –16% resale homes

# Home Sales (12 months):  +7% all homes, +3% resale homes

Median Sales Price (12 months):  +4% all homes, +10% resale homes

So... if you're selling a resale home (particularly if it is a detached home and/or in the City of Harrisonburg) you should find a strong pool of buyers and will likely sell for a favorable price.

Now, on to the graphs, so... fewer numbers, more lines, and perhaps a bit easier to see the directionality and magnitude of the trends...

All four months thus far in 2025 have shown fewer home sales (red line) than during the same month last year (blue line) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Thus far, 2025 has been a comparatively slower year for home sales as you can also see here...

The 343 home sales seen in the first four months of 2025 is the slowest start to a year that we have seen at least since 2021.  Will we start to see more home sales as we continue through 2025?  Or will this be the slowest year for home sales over the past five years?

The median sales price (green line) is still rising –– but more slowly over the past year (+3%) than in the overall market (+10%) though keep in mind that this 3% is market–wide and the increase is more significant when looking just at detached homes, or City homes, or resale homes.

And... after we saw the amount of home sales activity (blue line) rising through 2024 we have seen that turn back around and start to decline for each month in 2025.

But yet... a bright spot?

The first three months of the year showed lower (much lower) numbers of contracts being signed (by buyers and sellers) but the April figure (134) was only barely below last year (139) in what could be (?) a sign that we're starting to see 2025 pick up a little steam.

Further reinforcing that possibility...

We are seeing a very similar amount of pending (under contract) listings right now compared to where we were a year ago –– even after this metric was floating lower than last year in the early months of 2025.

And circling back to the context of inventory mentioned earlier...

A month ago we were seeing inventory (red line) rise steadily... and it seemed we might see it pop above last year's levels.  But, alas, for better or for worse, that did not happen.  The market is still maintaining lower inventory levels now than we saw a year ago... confirming that the decrease in home sales in 2025 is almost entirely a supply side issue.

And finally (last graph) mortgage interest rates are a lot more predictable now than they have been for many stretches over the past 10 years.  We are seeing them stay pretty consistently between 6.5% and 7% over the pas six months and even over most of the past 12 months.

So, what does all of this mean for you if you're thinking about selling your home or considering a home purchase?

If you're preparing to sell your home...

[1]  We can't conclude anything about your home's value based on this market–wide analysis – we will need to look more closely at your home's price range, property type, location, age, features, etc. to determine the market value of your home.

[2]  Many (though not all) price ranges, property types and locations are seeing a shortage of sellers and a surplus of buyers.  This should be a benefit to you when we list your house for sale.

[3]  Carefully prepared, properly priced and extensively marketed homes still sell for the best price and with the most favorable terms.  Let's chat about how to optimize each of those areas (preparation, pricing, marketing) for your home.

If you hope to buy a home this spring or summer...

[1]  Let's start looking soon –– the longer the timeframe we have to consider homes, the more options you will have to find the best home for you.

[2]  Let's chat about your hopes, dreams and goals for your home purchase, and your budget, and then we can start dialing into the locations and neighborhoods where we are mostly likely to find your next home.

[3]  When the perfect home hits the market it will probably be perfect for more buyers than just you – so go ahead and get preapproved for a mortgage today so that you are ready to pursue a home you love.

If you have questions about any of the data or trends I have outlined above... or if you're wondering how it applies to your home, neighborhood or situation... feel free to reach out anytime by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email.

Finally, if it would be helpful to meet to talk about your thoughts and questions about selling or buying... or to talk about improvements you might make to your home... or to talk about running... or to talk about Red Wing... just let me know.  I'm happy to meet up with you over coffee or at my office.

 

As mentioned last week, the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County will not be increasing their real estate tax rates in 2025.

But...

1.  The real tax rate in the City of Harrisonburg has been steadily increasing for several years now.

2.  Home values (and thus real estate assessments) have been steadily increasing for several years now.

Thus, as several of you pointed out... monthly housing costs have effectively increased both as a result of changes in the tax rates and changes in assessed values.

The data shown on the graph above is calculated using the annual median sales price in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County combined with the real estate tax rate in each corresponding year.

Real estate rates represent the amount of taxes paid on each $100 of assessed value.

Thus, for example, for the City of Harrisonburg in 2024... the median sales price was $295,000 and the real estate tax rate was $1.01.

So... $295,000 / 100 * 1.01 = $2,979.50 of annual taxes = $248 of monthly taxes.

A few observations based on the graph above...

1.  Five and six years ago the real estate tax bill was about the same in the City and County... but not so much any longer.

2.  It's currently about $66/month more expensive to pay real estate taxes on a median priced home in the City than in the County... though... interestingly... the median price is higher in the County ($347K) than in the City ($312K).

3.  The monthly real estate tax bill on a median priced home in the City has increased $106 over the past six years.

4.  The monthly real estate tax bill on a median priced home in the County has increased $40 over the past six years.

Does the difference in real estate tax rate between the City and County impact where you hope to buy your next home?