If you've been casually keeping an eye on the local housing market, you may have noticed something lately –– there just aren't that many homes for sale right now.

That's not unusual for this time of year. As the holiday season rolls in, inventory levels often decline. Some sellers decide to take their homes off the market in December, choosing to focus on holiday gatherings, travel, or simply to avoid showings during a quieter time of year.

But many of those homes –– and others that didn't make it onto the market before the holidays –– often come back on the market after the first of the year or in early spring.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're house hunting right now (or even just thinking about it), you're likely seeing fewer options than you did a month or two ago. You might even be putting your search on pause as the year winds down.

The good news? You'll likely start to see more listings pop up in January, and even more as we approach the spring market. So if you're not seeing a good fit today, there's a decent chance more options will be available in the coming weeks and months.

What This Means for Sellers

If your home is currently on the market, you may be benefiting from reduced competition. With fewer listings available, your home may stand out more to the buyers who are still actively searching during the holidays. That said, there are often fewer buyers shopping right now too –– many are waiting until after the holidays to re–engage in the process.

If you're planning to put your home on the market in the new year, be prepared for more competition. Inventory typically rises in January and February, and then again as we head into the spring season.

Of course, every seller's situation is different. It may make sense for some to leave their home on the market through the holidays, while others may benefit from taking a short break until after the new year.

Curious about what makes the most sense for your situation?

Let's talk. I'd be happy to help you weigh the pros and cons of timing your home sale –– or your home search –– as we head into the new year.

   

One of the decisions you'll have to make when you're thinking about buying a house –– or when you're in the process of making an offer –– is whether or not you'd like to have a home inspection.

You may be wondering: What does a home inspection actually involve? What does a home inspector do?

At a basic level, a home inspector's job is to evaluate a house's condition. But that can mean many different things, so let's break it down.

What a Home Inspector WILL do

A home inspector performs a non–invasive evaluation of a home.

They assess the home's major systems and visible components, including the roof, structure, interior, plumbing, electrical, heating, and cooling systems, among others.

They also test many of the everyday items in a house––appliances, outlets, faucets, toilets, and more.

They aren't looking for perfection. Every home has issues, even newer ones. Instead, they're looking for signs of problems or clues that could point to current or future issues.

What a Home Inspector WILL NOT do

A home inspector won't open up walls, cut into ceilings, or tear systems apart. They won't do anything that causes damage or involves invasive testing.

They also won't tell you whether a house is “good” or “bad,” or whether you should or shouldn't buy it. Their job is to present the facts clearly and objectively. They aren't there to point out minor cosmetic flaws, like small scratches, a speck on the floor, or normal and expected signs of aging.

The goal of a home inspection is to give buyers clear, useful information, so they can move forward with a better understanding of what they're buying.

The Takeaway

A home inspection isn't about finding a "perfect" house. It's about understanding the one you're buying.

If you're wondering whether a home inspection makes sense for your situation, how it might affect your offer, or who to trust for the inspection itself, I'd love to help point you in the right direction.

When you're considering a home purchase, you might find yourself glancing at the tax assessment and compare it to the list price.

Sometimes the two numbers line up nicely –– within a few percentage points of each other.

Other times, the difference is a bit more dramatic.

For the sake of this discussion, let's assume the list price of a home reflects its market value. Yes, I know that's not always true –– but it's a useful perspective for considering this topic.

When the tax assessment and market value are rather far apart, there are usually one of two explanations.

1. The home has been over improved in ways the City or County has not fully realized.

If a homeowner has made significant improvements over time –– such as a new roof, replacement windows, updated siding, new flooring, a renovated kitchen or bathrooms, modern lighting, or a new heating system –– the assessor may not be aware of all of those changes.

Some improvements get picked up during reassessments. Others do not.

When that happens, the assessed value can lag behind reality, and the market value (and list price) ends up being noticeably higher than the tax assessment.

In short, the house is worth more than the public records suggest.

2. The home has been under improved in ways the City or County cannot see

The opposite situation also happens quite often.

A homeowner may have owned a property for decades and made very few updates. From the outside, everything looks fine. But inside, the home may need substantial investment just to bring it up to average condition for its age.

In that case, the tax assessment may assume a level of condition and functionality that simply isn't there –– and the market value (and list price) ends up being lower than the assessed value.

Why this happens so often

Tax assessments are based on the assessor's best estimate of value using public records, exterior observations, permits, and broad market data. Assessors typically are not walking through homes.

And without going inside, it can be very hard to know whether a 1950s home feels like a 2020 home… or like a 1900 home.

If a 1950s house feels like a 2020 house, it will probably sell for more than its assessment.

If a 1950s house feels like a 1900 house, it will probably sell for less than its assessment.

The takeaway

When you see a home for sale with a list price that is significantly higher or lower than the tax assessment, don't jump to conclusions.

Instead, let's go take a look at the house if it is of interest.

The explanation is often found inside the home –– in the level of updates, maintenance, and overall condition –– not necessarily in an unreasonable asking price.

The assessment is a useful data point, but it is frequently not an accurate proxy for market value.

  

If you are buying a home with less than 20 percent down, you will likely run into something called private mortgage insurance, or PMI.

PMI is insurance that protects the lender, not the buyer. When a smaller down payment is used, the lender takes on more risk, and PMI helps cover that risk.

When PMI is required

PMI is usually required on conventional loans when the down payment is less than 20 percent. The smaller the down payment, the more likely PMI will be part of the loan.

How PMI is paid

There are a few common ways PMI shows up.

1.  Most often, PMI is added to the monthly mortgage payment. 

2.  In some cases, it can be paid upfront at closing. 

3.  Sometimes the lender pays it, but the cost is built into a slightly higher interest rate.

You are paying for PMI in any of these scenarios, but how it appears can look different from loan to loan.

When PMI can go away

On most conventional loans, PMI can be removed once you reach about 20 percent equity in the home and is automatically removed around 22 percent.

Equity can come from paying the loan down over time or from the home increasing in value.

Not all mortgage insurance works this way. For example, FHA loans usually require mortgage insurance for the life of the loan unless it is refinanced.

Is PMI a bad thing

PMI is not ideal (since it increases your monthly housing cost) but it often makes homeownership possible sooner. Many buyers use PMI as a temporary cost while building equity.

The important part is knowing how much PMI will cost you and when it can be removed.

The bottom line

PMI is common, manageable, and usually temporary.

If you are putting less than 20 percent down, make sure you understand how PMI is being paid and when it can be removed.

    

Every house we walk through together will have its pros and cons.

Sometimes it's a large, beautiful kitchen at the expense of a smaller living room. Sometimes it's plenty of bedrooms but only one full bathroom. Sometimes it's an open floor plan with everything flowing together, and other times the rooms and spaces are clearly divided. Some homes have great outdoor living space but limited storage. Others have a fantastic location but a quirky layout.

None of those things are inherently good or bad.

One perspective I often encourage buyers to adopt while touring homes is this:

How will the patterns of your life be the same, different, better, or worse if you live in this house compared to where you live now?

Thinking and talking about that question can be more helpful than simply thinking about whether or not you like a house.

For example, maybe you currently live in a home with an open floor plan, but the house you're considering has very separated living spaces. The kitchen is closed off. The living room is its own room. The dining room is behind a door. Life will almost certainly feel different there. Is that change something you'll enjoy, tolerate, or resent over time?

Or consider how and where you eat and gather. If you now have a dining space where you share meals, have conversations late into the night, and where family and friends connect –– and the new house has no dining area but does have a large kitchen island with stools –– how might that change the flow of daily life? Will conversations feel more casual? More rushed? More connected? Less so?

Another common example involves bedroom locations. If you're used to having all bedrooms on the second level, but the new home has one bedroom on the main level and the rest upstairs, that's not just a detail of the floor plan. It can potentially change bedtime routines, privacy, noise patterns, and even how you move through the house each day. That change could be a positive, a negative, or something that requires adjustment.

As we walk through homes together, we won't just be evaluating square footage, finishes, or price. We'll be trying to imagine how your life will live and feel in each space.

There will almost always be tradeoffs. Buying a home almost always means some changes to the patterns of your days and how you use the space in your home. The goal isn't to find a house with no compromises –– it's to understand which changes will feel positive and exciting, and which might feel limiting or frustrating over time.
  

You've been keeping an eye on the market. A new listing pops up that looks promising. We reach out to schedule a showing, and we get it on the calendar. But then we hear this...

"Just so you know, the sellers have already received an offer."

Now what? Should we still go see it?

Well... it depends.

Here are a few ways to think through whether it still makes sense to go see the house:

1. You think you'll love it, you're pre–approved, and you could make a decision quickly.

Yes, let's go see it.

If the house looks like a great fit for you, your lender letter is ready, and you're in a position to make a quick decision, then yes –– we should definitely still go see the house.

Even with another offer on the table, there's often enough of a window of time where additional showings are still happening and when additional offers might be considered. If you're ready to act, you could still have the opportunity to buy the house.

2. You think you'll love it, but you don't have your lender letter ready.

Maybe, if it's easy to fit into your schedule.

Without a lender letter in hand, you likely won't be in a position to make a competitive offer quickly enough. So, you probably shouldn't go out of your way or rearrange your day to see the house. That said, if it's easy to fit in and you're just starting your search, it might still be helpful to see it –– even if it ends up being a missed opportunity.

3. You think you'll love it, you're pre–approved, but you tend to take your time deciding.

Maybe, again, if it's convenient for you.

Some buyers like to sleep on it, think it over, maybe visit the house a second time. And that's completely fine. But if you know that's how you operate, it might be worth recognizing that houses that already have offers may not stick around long enough for you to work through that process. So again, if it's easy to see it, let's do it –– but if it requires you to make a big schedule shuffle, it might not be worth the rush.

4. You're not even sure you'll like the house.

Probably not.

If you're only halfway interested in the home and mostly just curious, and there's already an offer on the table, then it may not be the best use of your time to go see the house. It's probably okay to let this one go and wait for a better fit.

Bottom line?

When there's already an offer on a house, it doesn't necessarily mean you're too late –– but it probably does mean that the decision making timeline will be shorter. If you're ready to make a strong offer quickly, let's go see it. If not, let's weigh whether it's worth seeing based on your interest level and how easily it fits into your schedule.

  

Lots to observe here, though please note that the 2025 total home sales figure (1,321) is an estimate, as I added theoretical December 2025 home sales by averaging the past three months of December.

So, some observations...

1.  Per the yellow arrow, if we take 2020–2022 out of the equation (because of Covid causing a mad rush on housing, and super low interest rates) then we see that the number of home sales per year has been generally trending upwards over the past 12 years.

2.  The 1,389 home sales last year was more than anytime in the 17 years before that – other than 2020–2022.

3.  The projected 1,321 home sales this year would be relatively similar to the number of home sales we have seen each year between 2016 and 2025... other than 2020–2022.

4.  The peak of 1,674 home sales in 2021 in the aftermath of Covid was only barely (+5) higher than the peak in 2005 which was largely due to loose lending decisions (subprime mortgages) causing many more people to buy than would have otherwise.

5.  Interestingly, the two surges (red bars) of 2004–2006 and 2020–2022 were both brought on by changes (in one way or another) in mortgage lending.  During 2004–2006, lending standards were allowing borrowers to qualify for loans that were not reasonable for them to be able to repay.  During 2020–2022 buyers were buying homes at super low interest rates.  

So, what might we see over the next three to five years?

I suspect we will see a slow increase in home sales each year for the next five years.

Perhaps (wild guesses here, as any five year guess would be) would include...

2025 = 1,321 

2026 = 1,375

2027 = 1,415

2028 = 1,455

2029 = 1,495

2030 = 1,535

What do you think will happen over the next five years relative to the number of homes that will be bought and sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

  

Happy Thursday afternoon!

It's been a busy day, with two beautiful new listings (an upscale duplex at The Glen at Cross Keys, plus a five bedroom brick home in Barrington) hitting the market, so my usual morning blast with my monthly report is now an afternoon blast.

First, a few fun updates (football, food, family – ordered chronologically, not by priority) before getting to the real estate market analysis...

First, who went to the JMU Sunbelt Championship game!?  What a fun time, cheering on the Dukes to victory!

As you know by now, JMU won the game and are the Sunbelt Champions, and we all stormed the field to celebrate!  OK, well, I didn't –– but many did...

Next up, JMU plays Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on Saturday, December 20 at 7:00 PM.  Go Dukes!!!

2.  Food (and family)

Thanksgiving is one of my favorite days (and meals) of the year.  It's wonderful to gather with family, relax, catch up on life, perhaps play some games, and eat SO many delicious foods!  

What is missing from my plate that was on your Thanksgiving plate?  

And don't say "vegetables" – can't you see someone put a single token green bean on my plate for me?

We ventured out to pick out and cut down our Christmas tree on the day after Thanksgiving, as per our family tradition... this year being accompanied by Luke's puppy with a seasonally appropriate name... Holly.  

That's a bit about the fun I've been up to for the past few weeks –– what about you?  

I hope your Thanksgiving was also relaxing and fulfilling and that you were able to spend time with family and friends.

And now... on to the real estate data... oh wait, not quite, another list of three...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a pair of tickets to the Steel Wheels Winter Roots Concert to take place at JMU's Wilson Hall on Saturday, January 26 featuring the Steel Wheels and The Lone Bellow.  Enter here for a chance to win a pair of tickets.

Finally, on to the latest data, trends and insights in our local housing market.  

First up, all residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

This year, thus far (through the end of November) we have seen 5% fewer home sales than last year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... a decline from 1,292 home sales down to 1,230 home sales.  That said, over the past six months (June through November) we have seen almost the same number of sales this year (746) as last year (743).

Prices, meanwhile, prices have stayed relatively stable over the past year...with a median sales price of $346,015 a year ago... and $345,730 today.

Now, let's see how those metrics differ for only detached homes...

Over the past year we have seen a larger decline (11% instead of 5%) in the number of detached homes selling... and their sales prices have also remained relatively stable with a median sales price this year of $390,000 compared to $389,900 last year.  Of note, this 2024 and 2025 median sales price for detached homes is quite a bit higher than in 2023 when it was $350,250.

Meanwhile, how about those attached homes...

We have actually seen an increase in attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) over the past year... with 460 home sales this year (+11%) compared to only 423 last year.  The median sales price of attached homes has also increased by 3% over the past year, from $305K to $315K.

What about if we look only in the City of Harrisonburg?

We have seen 5% fewer home sales in the City in 2025 (same as for the overall market) but the median sales price of City homes has increased by 3% over the past year... from $295K to $305K.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

Just as in the City, and in the overall market, we have seen 5% fewer home sales in Rockingham County in 2025... but the median sales price has increased by about 1%, from $353K to $355K.

Dividing the market up one more time (new homes vs. resale) let's see what we find...

New homes have been a bit slower this year than last... with a 13% decline in the number of homes that are selling... though 2025 new home sales levels are still well above where we were in 2023.  Median sales prices, however, are down 3% for new homes –– though that can be significantly affected by the types of new homes that are being built, and the prices of those homes.

And what about the existing (resale) homes?

We have seen only a slight (2%) decline in the number of resale (existing) homes that have sold in 2025 compared to 2024... and the median sales price of those resale homes has increased 3% from $340K to $350K.  Stepping back a bit further, the median price of existing homes has increased from $310K to $350K over the past year years.

Now, let's start to try to see some overall trends by looking at some graphs of market activity for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

First off, there were well fewer closings in November than we might have otherwise expected.  Admittedly, the 136 closings last November was likely a bit of an anomaly, but this November's 96 closings was also well below the average of 110 closings for November when looking at 2021 through 2024 data.  Looking ahead, we are have somewhere around 100 (or 96?) closings in December.

Here's a graph that shows the overall trends in the market over the past year...

Median sales prices have stayed relatively stable/flat over the past year amidst a general downward trend in the number of homes that are selling.  As you'll see later in the report, inventory has risen and interest rates have fallen... so perhaps we will eventually see the number of homes selling start to increase again.

Zooming out a bit, here are those same trends in a longer context...

The lack of change in median sales price over the past year follow seven years of steady gains... with five of those years showing close to a 10% gain per year.  

The decline in the number of homes selling in 2025 is largely a part of a four year overall slow down, though we're basically just getting back to where we were before Covid.

To get a glimpse of where we will go next, let's look at contract activity...

November contract activity was about as predictable as it could possibly be –– with 96 contracts signed, compared to 91 last year.  

It is also interesting to note on the graph above that the October 2024 spike in contracts (138) is likely the cause of the November 2025 spike in home sales.

And how about those inventory levels?

Inventory levels have been trending down over the past few months, since peaking in July, though we don't currently seem likely to return to the sub 150 levels seen in December of last year.

Slightly higher inventory levels are helpful for buyers as they have slightly more choices when entering the market to buy.

The overall increase in inventory levels might also be the cause of the slightly higher "days on market" lately...

A year ago, the median "days on market" was six days...and we're now up to 9 days.  That's not a drastic change, but it does signal that it's taking a bit longer for homes to go under contract these days. 

Finally, how about those mortgage interest rates?

Mortgage interest rates have been slowly trending downwards over the past two years.  It has now been over three years with interest rates over 6%... and current rates are lower than all but three months out of the past three years.  

First, if you are thinking about buying a home soon...

More options + slightly slower pace. Inventory is higher than last year and homes are taking a bit longer to go under contract (median 9 days vs. 6), giving you a bit more breathing room and choice than in recent years.

Prices are stable – not surging. Median prices across most segments (detached, attached, city, county) have been remarkably flat over the past year, creating a more predictable pricing environment for buyers entering the market.

Interest rates are trending down. After three years of 6%+ rates, today's rates are lower than most months in that timeframe – improving affordability and potentially creating more opportunities for you as we move into 2026.

And what about if you will be selling soon...

Homes are still selling – just not as quickly. Sales counts are down modestly and days on market have increased, so you should prepare for slightly longer on the market and avoid assuming we will immediately receive an offer.

Stable pricing supports strong list prices. Despite fewer sales, prices have held steady across nearly every category, signaling that well–priced homes are selling at favorable prices without needing deep discounts.

More competition means preparation matters. With inventory higher than last year and buyers having more choices, you will benefit from a strong pricing strategy, thoughtful preparations of your home, and ensuring that your home stands out both online and in person.

I'll be reaching out with my next market update... next year!?!!  So, enjoy the balance of 2025 and I hope you are able to spend some time with those who matter most to you over the coming weeks!

  

The City of Harrisonburg is attempting to take another step toward increasing the supply of affordable housing in our community.

At the December 9 City Council meeting, City Council approved (contingent on rezoning) a proposal to sell a 1.15–acre parcel of City–owned land to Central Valley Habitat for Humanity for just $10,000 –– despite the property being assessed at $308,000.

Why the significant discount? This land sale will support Habitat's plans to develop at least ten for–sale townhomes on the site, with a minimum of 80 percent of the homes reserved for low–to–moderate income buyers.

This type of partnership between local government and nonprofit housing developers is one way the City of Harrisonburg can potentially create more opportunities for homeownership –– especially for residents who might otherwise be priced out of the current market.

The land in question is located on Reservoir Street near the intersection of Stonewall Drive.

While the proposal involves selling public land for significantly below its assessed value, the City is framing this as an investment in long–term housing stability and affordability. If the project moves forward, these townhomes would provide stable housing options for individuals and families who live and work in Harrisonburg –– but who might otherwise struggle to find housing they can afford to buy.

Click here to read more about this proposal for selling the land on Reservoir Street to Habitat for Humanity.

This proposal is in addition to a recent proposal for the City to give a 7.825 acre parcel to a developer at no cost to support the development of 200 to 220 units of affordable, income–and–rent–restricted rental housing.

  

When you're preparing your home to go on the market, one of our main goals is to help buyers see themselves living in the space. That means creating a neutral, welcoming environment that allows them to focus on the house itself –– its layout, its features, its flow –– not on the people currently living there.

And yes, that sometimes means taking down a few family photos.

To be clear, it's perfectly fine to leave a personal photo or two here or there, especially if they blend naturally into the decor. But if you have a full wall of family portraits or dozens of family photos throughout the home, it might be time to scale back.

Why? Because buyers are naturally curious. If they walk into your home and see a hallway of framed pictures, they'll stop and start trying to piece together your story –– how many kids you have, what ages, where you've traveled, and much more!

And while that curiosity is totally human, it takes their attention away from where it should be –– on your home, and whether it's the right fit for them.

So, when we meet to prepare your home for the market, we'll walk through together and identify any spots where personal photos –– or other types of distracting decor –– might keep buyers from seeing the bigger picture. It's not about erasing your family from the home –– it's about helping buyers picture their own life in the home!
  

If you're preparing to sell your home, it might be tempting to list it a bit high –– say, $10K, $15K or even $25K above what similar homes are selling for –– with the idea that buyers will make a lower offer and you'll still end up where you want to be.

But in today's market, that strategy can backfire –– especially if homes similar to yours are going under contract quickly at their full list price.

Let's walk through an example.

Imagine the last three homes in your neighborhood, with similar features and condition, were each listed at $350,000. They went under contract in 0, 1, and 2 days –– and they all sold for $350,000.

You decide to list your home for $375,000 –– at least partly because you want to leave room to negotiate.

Buyers come to see your home –– but they don't make an offer.

Why not?

Because they are not trying to figure out what they want to pay for your home. They are trying to decide whether they are willing to pay $375K. And based on what they've seen in the neighborhood –– homes just like yours selling quickly for $350K –– they decide that no, they are not.

You might think, "But a buyer should just make an offer!"

And sure –– they could. But in reality, most buyers don't. If your home is priced too far above recent comparable sales, many buyers will simply move on.

So, if you're selling a home and similar homes in your price range (and location, and with similar features) are going under contract quickly and at full price –– that usually means it is more important than ever to not overprice your home.

We must price your home in line with recent sales –– because buyers are looking to act quickly and confidently on well–priced homes.

Pricing your home correctly from the start is often the best way to attract strong interest and get the best possible offer –– sometimes even with multiple buyers competing for your home.

   

Affordable housing is a frequent topic of conversation in many localities. Whether housing is truly "affordable" in Harrisonburg is certainly a matter of opinion, but let's look at some specific facts and data to reach more objective conclusions.

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, "affordable housing" is defined as housing in which an occupant pays no more than 30 percent of gross income on housing–related costs, including utilities.

To determine if housing is affordable in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we need to start with local gross median income.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median household income for 2023 was:

• Harrisonburg: $58,597
• Rockingham County: $79,332

Now, let's work backwards. To figure out at what price point housing is considered affordable, we first need to calculate 30% of household income:

• Harrisonburg: $58,597 �– 0.3 = $17,579
• Rockingham County: $79,332 �– 0.3 = $23,799

For context, these numbers represent 30% of median household income. This means that for housing to be considered affordable, residents of Harrisonburg must spend less than $17,579 per year on housing costs, while Rockingham County residents must spend less than $23,799.

Since HUD's 30% threshold includes utilities and other housing–related costs beyond mortgage payments, let's make some quick estimates:

Now let's subtract these non–mortgage costs from the 30% median household income threshold to determine how much money remains for mortgage payments –– which will help us identify the affordable price point for local housing.

• Harrisonburg: $17,579 – $3,000 = $14,579 ÷ 12 = $1,214.92 / month
• Rockingham County: $23,799 – $3,000 = $20,799 ÷ 12 = $1,733.25 / month

Calculating Affordable Home Prices

Now that we know how much of the median household income can reasonably be allocated to mortgage payments, we can determine the approximate home purchase price that would keep those payments within the "affordable" range.
Harrisonburg

Using a 6.25% interest rate on a 30–year mortgage, we can work backward from Harrisonburg's affordable monthly payment limit of $1,214.92. Based on this monthly limit –– and assuming a 5% down payment –– the maximum affordable loan amount is approximately $162,450, which translates to the following:

• Purchase Price: $171,000
• Required Down Payment: $8,550
• Loan Amount: $162,450
• Estimated Monthly Principal & Interest: $1,000.23
• Estimated Monthly Property Taxes: $143.93
• Estimated Monthly Homeowners Insurance: $68.00
• Total Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,212.16

Maximum Purchase Price With a 20% Down Payment

Using the same affordable monthly payment limit of $1,214.92, a 20% down payment allows for a slightly higher purchase price while keeping the total monthly cost within budget. With a 20% down payment, the maximum affordable loan amount is approximately $156,800, which produces the following:

• Purchase Price: $196,000
• Required Down Payment: $39,200
• Loan Amount: $156,800
• Estimated Monthly Principal & Interest: $965.44
• Estimated Monthly Property Taxes: $164.97
• Estimated Monthly Homeowners Insurance: $78.00
• Total Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,208.41

Rockingham County

Maximum Purchase Price With a 5% Down Payment

Using the same 6.25% interest rate on a 30–year mortgage, we can work backward from Rockingham County's affordable monthly payment limit of $1,733.25. Based on this monthly limit –– and assuming a 5% down payment –– the maximum affordable loan amount is approximately $241,300, which translates to the following:

• Purchase Price: $254,000
• Required Down Payment: $12,700
• Loan Amount: $241,300
• Estimated Monthly Principal & Interest: $1,485.73
• Estimated Monthly Property Taxes: $143.93
• Estimated Monthly Homeowners Insurance: $102.00
• Total Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,731.66

With a 20% Down Payment

For households able to make a 20% down payment, the affordable monthly limit allowed for a slightly higher price point while remaining within budget. With Rockingham County's limit of $1,733.25, the maximum affordable loan amount is approximately $235,200, resulting in the following:

• Purchase Price: $294,000
• Required Down Payment: $58,800
• Loan Amount: $235,200
• Estimated Monthly Principal & Interest: $1,448.17
• Estimated Monthly Property Taxes: $166.60
• Estimated Monthly Homeowners Insurance: $118.00
• Total Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,732.77

Comparing Affordability to Actual Home Sales

With the estimated affordable home price ranges established for both Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the next step is to compare these affordability thresholds to the homes that actually sold over the past year. This allows us to measure not just theoretical affordability, but practical availability within the current housing market.

Based on the calculations above, an affordable purchase price for Harrisonburg residents –– given median income and a 6.25% mortgage rate –– ranges from approximately $171,000 (with 5% down) to $196,000 (with 20% down).

Here's how the real market compares:

• Homes sold for less than $171,000 in past year: 6
• Homes sold for less than $196,000 in past year: 8
• Total homes sold in Harrisonburg over the past year: 251

This means that:

• At the $171,000 affordability level, only 2.39% of homes sold would be considered affordable.
• At the $196,000 level –– assuming a full 20% down payment –– only 3.19% of homes sold fall under this threshold.

In other words, more than 96% of homes sold in Harrisonburg last year were priced beyond what the median household could afford under HUD's definition of affordability, even when assuming a 20% down payment. The data clearly shows extremely limited market availability for households at or near the city's median income level.

For Rockingham County, our affordability calculations place the affordable home price range between $254,000 (with 5% down) and $294,000 (with 20% down).

Here's how the past year of home sales compares:

• Homes sold for less than $254,000 in past year: 99
• Homes sold for less than $294,000 in past year: 212
• Total homes sold in Rockingham County over the past year: 963

This means:

• At the $254,000 level, 10.28% of homes sold would meet the affordability threshold.
• At the higher $294,000 level –– assuming 20% down –– 22.02% of homes sold fall within the affordable range.

Compared to Harrisonburg, Rockingham County offers a higher percentage of homes that are affordable to households earning the local median income. Still, even at the more generous affordability threshold, the majority of homes sold remain out of reach for median–income households.

Homeownership at the median income level presents clear challenges. With only 2.39% to 3.19% of homes sold in the past year falling within the affordable purchase price range we calculated, the supply of homes attainable for the typical buyer is extremely limited. That said, this does not necessarily mean that all housing is out of reach –– only that entry into homeownership is difficult for households earning the city's median income under current market conditions.

In Rockingham County, the situation is somewhat more favorable. Depending on the size of the down payment, between 10.28% and 22.02% of homes sold last year fall within the affordable range for the median household. While still not a majority of the market, this represents a wider range of attainable options compared to Harrisonburg.

It's important to emphasize that these findings are specific to homeownership, which has become more difficult across the country due to higher interest rates, rising home prices, and slower income growth.

The affordability thresholds we calculated –– 

• $1,214.92/month for Harrisonburg
• $1,733.25/month for Rockingham County

 –– represent what median–income households can reasonably spend on mortgage payments, after accounting for routine housing–related utilities such as water, electricity, and internet. These monthly amounts do not reflect the rental market.

In other words, while buying a home may be challenging for many households –– something true both locally and nationally –– there are numerous rental options in both Harrisonburg and Rockingham County that fall within these affordability ranges, depending on household size, location, and individual circumstances.

Homeownership affordability is limited for median–income households in both localities, particularly in Harrisonburg. However, this does not mean that all housing is unaffordable. Instead, the data suggests a more nuanced picture:

• Buying a home is difficult for many households, locally and nationally.
• Rental housing may still offer options within HUD's affordability guidelines.
• Affordability varies widely by down payment size, household composition, and housing type.

In short, while the pathway to homeownership may be narrow, the broader housing landscape includes a variety of living arrangements –– some of which may fall within what median–income residents in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County can reasonably afford.

Because of the limited number of for–sale homes available at these price points, many households at these income levels will naturally remain renters rather than buyers.

I'd love to chat! 

You can call/text me at 540–830–5097, or send me an email at luke@lukewrogers.com
  

If you are planning to sell your home this coming spring, you might be thinking that the best time to start getting ready is March or April. But a bit of planning and preparation now –– in December or January –– can save you quite a bit of time and stress down the road.

Let's plan a time to walk around and through your home together to discuss the kinds of things you can be doing now to get your house ready for the spring market.

1. Home Improvements or Repairs

Are there small repairs you've been putting off? A ceiling fan that stopped working, a few pieces of missing trim moulding that were never installed after you replaced the flooring a few years back, a high traffic area that could use a fresh coat of paint.  Or perhaps there's a larger project –– like replacing some really older carpet or addressing an aging roof –– that you already know you'll need to tackle. Identifying those items now gives you the time to plan for the work and get the work scheduled.

2. Cosmetic Updates

Would your kitchen cabinets benefit from a fresh coat of paint? Are there a few light fixtures that could use an upgrade? Even minor cosmetic changes –– like updating hardware or switching out dated window treatments –– can make your home more appealing to buyers. Starting this process now gives you plenty of time to make the decision and put a plan into action.

3. Outdoor Clean Up 

Let's take a look at your home's exterior. Could the siding or fencing use power washing? Are there landscaping areas that could be refreshed with mulch or trimmed back? Winter is a great time to plan for curb appeal improvements that will make a great first impression.

4. Decluttering and Organizing

This one takes time, and starting now is key. We will walk through each room and look at it from a buyer's perspective –– what feels cluttered, overly full, or disorganized? Begin simplifying closets, clearing off countertops, and reducing extra furniture. When it's time to do the final prep for listing photos, you'll be glad you tackled this part early.

Spending some time this winter looking at your home through the eyes of a potential buyer will set you up for a much smoother, less stressful home sale in the spring. If you'd like help figuring out what to tackle first –– or what matters most to buyers in today's market –– I'm happy to help.

  

Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale) have been rising over the past year.

End of November 2024 = 160 homes for sale

End of November 2025 = 215 homes for sale

You can also see this visually towards the far right end of the chart above.

But, despite these recent increases, in a longer context, inventory levels are still quite low.  Let's take a look at what has been developing over the past 14 or so years.

Between 2012 and 2016 inventory levels fluctuated seasonally but weren't really rising or falling...

Between 2016 and 2019 inventory levels steadily declined from around 550 homes for sale to around 250 homes for sale...

As the COVID–19 pandemic showed up on the scene in early 2020, and as mortgage interest rates then declined quickly, inventory levels dropped even further, hitting levels of around 100 homes for sale by 2021...

We saw inventory levels start to run up, surpassing 200 homes for sale, during 2023, but then decline again in 2024...

During 2025 we have mostly seen inventory levels rise...

Looking ahead... it seems inventory levels will likely continue to stay below 300 homes for sale at any given time in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, but we are not likely to fall below 150 homes for sale.

One of the largest current influences on inventory levels is the number of new homes being built and offered for sale at any given time.

   

As I mentioned yesterday, Harrisonburg recently launched a Development Tracker to keep track of projects proposed or under development in the City of Harrisonburg.

But... good news... you can also explore proposed and current projects in Rockingham County via the Rockingham County Development Tracker as well!

Here's a sample of the type of information you'll find, in this example, all relatively close to Sentara RMH Medical Center...

1 – Walnut Grove by Legacy Land – a rezoning under review to potentially rezone the parcel from A–2 to R–5.

2 – Wentworth Apartments – 271 apartments with a clubhouse

3.  Crownpoint Indepedent Living – independent living facility with 116 townhouses, duplexes and apartments

4.  Valvoline Instant Oil Change – building plan under review

5.  Stone Port Dunkin' Donuts – site plan approved

6.  Harrisonburg Hyatt Studios – construction underway

7.  Mixed Use DR Horton Development – 425 apartments, townhomes, duplexes and detached homes, plus commercial space

8.  Port Place Townhomes – rezoning approved for 68 townhomes

9.  Boyers Crossing – rezoning approved for mixed use building and up to 85 residential units including apartments and townhomes

10.  Greenport – site plan under review for 16 townhouses

11.  Reservoir Heights – construction underway for 360 apartments and a clubhouse

This is just the tip of the iceberg – looking at one area of the county – explore more over at the Rockingham County Development Tracker!

  

If you're curious about current or proposed developments in the City of Harrisonburg, then you're sure to enjoy exploring the new Harrisonburg Development Tracker where you can easily identify and explore current or proposed developments.

Let's quickly flip through a few that you'll find on the map as of today.

The Parks on Reservoir is in Site Plan Review and is proposed to include 124 apartments...

University Boulevard is being rerouted...

Two41 Central is under Site Plan Review, to include 142 apartments...

Northside Village (58 townhomes, 34 apartments) a new Holtzman and Northside Gateway Plaza and under construction and a site plan has been approved for Vine Street Townhomes (24 townhomes) – all at or close to the intersection of North Main Street and Mt Clinton Pike...

Sunshine Apartments, to include 57 apartments, is under Site Plan Review...

Hearthfire Self Storage is under construction, and seemingly nearing completion...

And much, much more...

Check out the Harrisonburg Development Track here.

If you live in Harrisonburg and have been paying attention to local happenings over the past decade, you are likely familiar with the volunteer–led nonprofit organization Build Our Park.

The organization's name does a good job of explaining what it exists to do: in short, Build Our Park exists because many local leaders and residents want a park built in Downtown Harrisonburg.

Over the past decade, much progress has been made, but more recently, the years of effort have finally started to come together.

The Capital Campaign

Most recently, Build Our Park hosted a capital campaign kickoff reception –– a milestone event marking the formal start of the effort to raise $3.8 million to build the park just south of Turner Pavilion.

By the end of the evening, the organization had raised $130,000, bringing its total to $1.43 million –– a little more than one–third of its overall goal.

What the Park Will Offer

Plans for the future park include a permanent stage designed to support concerts, festivals, and community celebrations, including the Levitt AMP series. The design also calls for expanded lawn space and improved pedestrian access, including the removal of one row of parking between Turner Pavilion and the grassy area.

Looking Ahead

Once completed, Build Our Park will transfer ownership of the park to the City of Harrisonburg, ensuring it becomes a publicly managed, permanently accessible space for everyone in the community.

With early design work complete and fundraising now underway, much of the foundational work that once stood in the way has been cleared. According to board members, the next major milestone will be securing the funding needed to begin construction in 2027.

After years of dreaming, debating, and designing, the question is no longer whether Harrisonburg will build a downtown park. It's simply how quickly we can get it done together.
  

If you've driven by the intersection of Port Republic Road and Nelson Drive lately you likely saw LOTS of earth moving equipment starting on the site work for a new residential community on the West side of Port Republic Road, backing up to Stone Spring Village.

Per the City of Harrisonburg, Weston Park will include 26 single familiy homes, 30 duplexes and 70 townhouses.

This was the original proposed layout about two years ago...

Stay tuned as more details become available related to Weston Park.

  

For years now, there has been talk of a grocery store being built between Preston Lake and Spotswood Trail.  Is that rumor finally coming into existence?

Per the Rockingham County development tracker, a site plan is under review for a Kroger Market Place to include a 99,000 SF grocery store and fuel center.

Stay tuned to see if this grocery store (and fuel center) come into existence.  

  

Construction will soon be underway on homes in a new community at Massanutten Resort – Bluestone Peak.  The first neighborhood to be built at Bluestone Peak, shown above, will include a variety of home types as well as a private clubhouse.

Construction is intended to begin this winter with homes to be complete in late 2026.  

In addition to Massanutten Resort's offerings, residents at Bluestone Peak will have access to amenities including pickleball courts, pool and hot tub, bocce court and putting green, clubhouse (with fitness center, gym, sauna, library, game room, business center), picnic pavilion, horseshoe pits, corn hole boards, fire pits and more.

Per the Rockingham County development tracker, this is the area where Bluestone Peak will be developed...