Happy Wednesday, Friends!

The year is flying along... only 49 days until 2026!?!  I hope you are enjoying your Fall in the Shenandoah Valley!  It's been a fun time in my world lately, with a birthday celebration, time with family, JMU football and basketball games, a fun evening at the Explore More Discovery Museum's Night at the Museum, and much more!  

What adventures and experiences have you enjoyed this Fall season?  Or what are you looking forward to in the weeks to come?

While you think on that... and before I dive into the market data...

Have you been to Billy Jack's in downtown Harrisonburg - known for their beef, bacon, beer and bird?  Whether you're enjoying sliders, sticky nuggs, or their Saturday or Sunday brunch, you'll want to go check it out!  Enter here for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Billy Jack's.

The chart above takes a look at how many homes are selling... bottom line... about the amount as last year.  In more detail...

Unlike the overall market that was seeing very little change in the number of homes that are selling... we're seeing a moderate (6% over the past six months) decline in the number of detached homes that are selling... those their median sales price is staying level just like the overall market.

And what about those attached homes?

Here, we're seeing a significant (+24%) increase in the number of attached homes that have sold in the past six months compared to the same time last year... though the median sales price is staying relatively level (+1%) just like the overall market.

Now, what do we see if we just look at existing homes, and exclude new homes?

Over the past six months we have seen an increase (+9%) in the number of existing homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... a relief to anyone looking to buy a resale home... and the prices of those homes increased only slightly (+2%) compared to a year ago.

And the new homes?  What's happening in that corner of the market?

We are actually seeing lower numbers of new home sales (-10%) this year than last... and their median sales price has dropped slightly (-3%) over the past year.  This change in sales price could also be related to product mix -- the types and size of homes that are being built.

Now, some graphs to help us gain a bit more insight into the latest local trends...

The red line above tracks 2025 home sales... and we have seen higher numbers of home sales in August, September and October of this year compared to last year.  But... last November, home sales jumped up unexpectedly... will we see the same this year?  Stay tuned!

Here you can compare this year to 2023 and 2024...

Now through 10 months of the year, we're at about the same place this year (1,132 home sales) as we were last year (1,156 home sales) but it's not yet clear if we'll clear the total of 1,388 home sales that we saw last year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  That said, we do seem very likely to see at least as many home sales as took place in 2023.

Now, let's look at the big picture, slow moving, overall local trends...

After multiple years of double digit (10%) annual increases in the median sales price, we are now only seeing very tiny price increases.  Over the past year, the median sales price has only increased from $342K to $346K in our marketplace.  

We are, however seeing an overall an overall increasing trend of more homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County after having seen the annual rate of home sales decline for several years due to rising interest rates.  More on interest rates in a bit.  

Here's a longer look at those overall trends...

The period of drastic increases in prices ran from 2019 through 2024.  But, clearly, stopped at that point.  Prices are now level... what will they do next?  Stay level?  Start to increase again?  Dip a bit?

Meanwhile, we're in the midst of a multi-year slow decline in the number of homes that are selling per year... though we are starting to see what increase in 2025... so keep in mind that the blue "2025" bar only includes 10 months of home sales.

Now, let's look ahead instead of behind... what might come next?

The graph above tracks the number of contracts signed each month, which typically then leads to closed sales one to two months later.  We saw lower numbers of contracts signed this October than last... but do recall that last November we saw a spike in closed sales.  The lower number of October contracts likely means that we won't see a big uptick in sales in November.  

Contract activity over the past few months (trending downwards) likely means we will see slower months of closed sales in November and December.

Finally, how about inventory levels... are there many homes for sale?

Indeed, inventory levels are on the rise again.  Over the past six months we have seen inventory levels significantly above where they were a year ago.  This means buyers have more choices, and sellers have more competition -- though this dynamic varies significantly by price range, property type and location.

Finally, those mortgage interest rates...

Mortgage interest rates keep on dropping, much to the delight of current home buyers!  We're now seeing an average rate on a 30 year mortgage just above 6% -- and I am seeing some buyers lock in just below 6%.  It seems likely that we could continue to see these rates decline over the next few months.

And now we get to "So What?" - what does this mean if you might buy soon or sell soon?

You'll likely have slightly more options from which to choose -- though many homes are still going under contract quickly.  You will also likely be financing your purchase at a lower mortgage interest rate now than if you had bought a year ago -- and prices aren't too much higher now than a year ago.  So, if you didn't buy a year ago, this might might be a slightly more favorable time to buy... lower rates, similar prices, more options!

Some, but not all, homes are going under contract FAST.  If you're in a popular neighborhood or price range, you'll love the attention -- but plenty of home sellers will have to be a bit more patient if their home does not go under contract in the first week or two.  You'll likely have a bit less competition from other sellers over the winter months, which can make it a reasonable time to sell... and buyers are seeing slightly lower mortgage interest rates now, which might make them more willing to consider your home.

If you're getting ready to buy, or getting ready to sell, or just have questions... let's set up a time to chat... or meet at your house or my office to discuss.  

You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.

   

Until next month... I hope you have a wonderful remainder of your November... and a very happy Thanksgiving... one of my favorite days and holidays and meals (yum!) of the year!