Happy February Friday, Friends!

I hope you are enjoying this slightly warmer week of winter weather.  I was reflecting back today on when the snow first started falling during the recent winter storm and I thought everything looked so beautiful and peaceful, and the snow seemed so innocent...

...and then the three inches of sleet fell on top of the snow, and froze, and stayed frozen, and stayed frozen.  We've been able to walk around on the snow (aka ice skating rink) in our backyard for over two weeks now, and it just started to soften and melt earlier this week.  But, warmer weather is coming, and it might hit 60 degrees next week, so perhaps we'll start to see more grass soon.

I hope you have stayed safe, and warm, and slip-free over the past few weeks despite treacherous roads... and driveways... and sidewalks!

Moving on from the snow, though, you have the chance to warm up over a nice latte at Greenberry's...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Greenberry's - where my go to order is typically a caramel latte and either a breakfast burrito or a cranberry scone.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card to Greenberry's.

While you're enjoying a cup of coffee or other treat at Greenberry's you can scroll through my daily email newsletter that I send out each weekday with a quick note related to our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.  Recent stories have included...

Now, on to the latest trends in our local market, starting with the actual data of home sales, prices and days on market for all residential properties sold through the MLS in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

January was... as January usually is... slow.  There were only 86 home sales in January, which is about the same as last January.  When we look at the past 12 month (Feb to Jan) we see a slight decline (-1%) in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

The median sales price has also declined ever so slightly (less than 1%) over the past year from about $346K to $345K.  So, slightly fewer home sales and flat prices.

Meanwhile, it is taking homes slightly longer to sell, with the median days on market rising from six days to eight days when looking at the past 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.

But let's get a better sense of those overall trends by looking at some graphs together...

The red "86" above shows the 86 sales in January compared to the 84 seen last January... and the average of 90 January sales over the past four years.  So, January home sales were very much in line with what we might have otherwise expected them to be.

Looking ahead (via the graph above) we are likely to see another slow month of home sales in February and likely in March before things start to accelerate in April and onward.

As mentioned above, we're seeing slightly fewer sales and flat prices, which you can see below with each data point representing the prior 12 months of data...

The top green line shows the median sales price, which has been relatively level over the past year, though modulating between $345K and $349K.

Meanwhile, as per the blue line above, we're seeing slightly slower home sales (per year) right now, though more home sales (per year) than we were seeing two years ago.

To try to predict the future (at least the next few months of it) let's look at contract activity...

Here again, January was about what we would have expected.  The 99 contracts signed in January was a bit higher than the 97 last January, and a (slightly larger) bit lower than the four year average of 108 January contracts.

We are likely see another slow (or slower) month of contract activity in February before things likely start to take off with much more contract activity in March and April.

Meanwhile, inventory levels continue their 2025 trend of staying a good bit higher than the prior year...

A year ago there were 140 homes for sale (blue line) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... compared to 165 homes for sale today.  The graph above shows that as we moved through last year, inventory levels stayed well above the four year average for monthly inventory - and that seems to be continuing into 2026. 

It will be interesting to see if we see another incremental increase in inventory levels in 2026 over top of 2025... which were already higher than 2024.

And that "days on market" figure -- it is definitely rising...

Breaking it down a bit... "days on market" is the number of days it takes for a property to go under contract after it is listed for sale... though this is only calculated based on homes that have actually sold.  It's also worth noting that the "median" aspect of the days on market figure means that (for example) half of homes went under contract in 11 or more days, and half went under contract in 11 or fewer days.

The graph above measures the median days on market over the past six months... so the last data point (11 days) is looking at August 2025 through January 2026.  Regardless of all of those technical details, it is evident that it we continue to see increases in how long it is taking homes to go under contract once they hit the market for sale.

Finally, let's peek in at interest rates, perhaps for a bit of a surprise...

Remarkably, mortgage interest rates at the end of January 2026 were at almost the lowest point we have seen them over the past three years.  The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate was 6.10% at the end of January, and it was only lower than that for one other month over the past 36 months!

Might we see interest rates in the 5-point-something range in 2026?  It seems possible!

I'll wrap up the highlights of our local market there for now... though you'll find plenty of additional charts and graphs over here if you want to read further.

Until next month...

Home Buyers - 

1.  Get pre-approved if you aren't already to get a sense of how your monthly budget lines up with loan amounts and purchase prices.

2.  Let's go see new listings quickly when they hit the market to excitedly pursue them or to decisively decide not to do so.

3.  You should see even more options to buy as we move into March and April.

Home Sellers - 

1.  Pricing, preparation and marketing are more important than ever as home buyers are making more thoughtful (and also slower) decisions about whether to make offers.

2.  There should be more buyer activity in March and April, but you'll also have more competition from other sellers at that time.

3.  Yes, it's OK to list your home with snow still on the ground.  :-)