Happy New Year!  

I hope you had a delightful holiday season and enjoyed ringing in the New Year.  Happy 2026!  I celebrated with a few hundred of my closest friends (ok, fine, my running acquaintances) in the VA Momentum Glow Run.

Before we get off and running with the market data (you like it, I know) a few quick notes...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Capital Ale House on Court Square in downtown Harrisonburg.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card.

Now, then, let's get into the latest market data... for December and looking back at all of 2025... in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

First, looking at the overall number of sales in the City and County...

December 2025 showed a surprising bump in home sales with 23% more than the prior December... but for the full year, we ended up seeing 3% fewer home sales in 2025 than in 2024.  

Meanwhile, when it comes to the prices of those homes...

After multiple years of faster than normal increases in the median sales price... those increases slowed to a stop in 2025.  The median sales price in 2025 was basically the same (+$460) as it was in 2024.  

And how about how quickly homes are going under contract...

Median days on market (the time it takes for a new listing to go under contract) has risen from 6 days to 8 days.  We'll see this shift a bit clearer in a later graph, but it is taking slightly longer for homes to go under contract these days.

Now, let's look briefly at a few specific market segments, starting with detached homes...

We saw 10% fewer detached home sales in 2025 as compared to 2024... though the median sales price of those homes increased 1% over the past year.  The median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is currently sitting at $390,000.  That means that half of detached homes that are selling are doing so below $390K and half are selling for more than $390K.

How about those attached homes, which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos...

The 10% decline in detached home sales was accompanied by a 13% increase in attached home sales... furthermore, the median sales price of attached homes increased 4% over the past year.  The median sales price of an attached home (townhouse, duplex or condo) is currently $316,000.

Now, for some geographical comparisons, here's the City of Harrisonburg...

It is becoming more and more difficult to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg as fewer and fewer are offered for sale.  The number of homes selling in the City of Harrisonburg declined from 303 in 2023 to 295 in 2024 to 279 in 2025.  The median sales price, however, has increased 3% to $304,900.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

We saw a slightly smaller decline in the number of homes selling in Rockingham County... with 2% fewer selling in 2025 compared to 2024.  The increase in the median sales price, however, was also smaller... increasing 1% to $354,900 for all homes sold in Rockingham County.

Now, let's look just at new home sales...

After only 304 new home sales in 2023... that jumped up to 394 in 2024... and then declined 7% last year to 365 new home sales in 2025.  Over the past year the median sales price of new homes has also declined slightly, by 3%, to $339,500.

But if you're not looking to buy a new home, you might be interested to note these trends in the sale of existing (resale) homes...

We saw about the same number of existing home sales in 2025 (987) as we saw in 2024 (995) and the median sales price of those existing homes increased by 3% to $351,000.

Now, having looked through the main numbers... let's put the data into some graphs to try to get a visual sense of the latest trends through the end of 2025.

A few things to note on the graph above...

[1]  December home sales were quite a bit stronger than expected... with 119 sales compared to only 97 last December.  

[2]  But, keep in mind, November 2025 home sales were sort of slow, so maybe some of those buyers didn't end up closing on their purchase until December.

[3]  Looking back to this past January, February and March - they were quite slow (79 - 84 home sales) and thus we might have a few slow months ahead of us if that pattern continues.

Now, a look at the full year of 2025, stacked up against prior years...

This past year (2025) started off slow and never caught up to 2024.  Both years, though, showed more home sales than 2023.  In a possible bouncing ball effect (down, up, down, up) perhaps we'll see an increase in home sales in 2026.

Here, then, are the slow moving long term trend lines...

Prices are flat... and sales are slowing.  The captions say it all.  After several years of rapidly increasing prices (see the next graph) we are now seeing very little change in home prices, and technically, a slight decline over the past six months.  Meanwhile, we're seeing an overall decline in the number of homes that are selling.

Here's an even longer look back, with year to year sales and price trends...

The graph above shows eight years of increases in the median sales price (from $193K to $345K) followed by last year, with no increase at all.  Last year also showed a slight decline in the number of homes that are selling.

What times next for home sales and prices?  I think we are going to see a slight increase in the number of homes that are selling and the prices at which they are selling, but stay tuned to see how it all shakes out.

Perhaps 2026 will get off to a good start based on what this next graph shows...

We typically see around 86 contracts signed in December... but there were 102 signed in December 2025.  Perhaps this will lead to a slightly stronger month of closed home sales in January and/or February.

Perhaps those higher contract numbers were a result of more homes being available for sale...

We are starting to see inventory levels decline (241 down to 184 over the past two months) but current inventory levels are still quite a bit higher than they were a year ago.  We closed out 2024 with about 138 homes for sale, and a year later, it's 184 homes for sale.  We are likely to see inventory levels continue to increase as we move through the next few months.

Here's the graph I referenced earlier, showing days on market...

Two years ago (late 2023) we saw the median days on market metric increase significantly leading up to and through the new year... and we saw that again this past year.  I'll be continuing to monitor this over the next few months to see if days on market starts to decline again after the spike (like it did two years ago) or whether these numbers remain elevated.

Finally, mortgage interest rates...

This is one situation in which a declining trend is positive news... mortgage interest rates have been mostly declining over the past year (from 6.85% to 6.15%) which slowly but surely makes monthly housing costs (for new buyers) slightly more affordable than previously.

So, what does all of this mean for you?

Key Takeaways for Buyers...

Interest Rates Are Easing - This will either increase your purchasing power, or reduce your monthly cost as compared to if you bought six months or a year ago - good news for you!

More Homes to Choose From - Inventory levels are higher than a year ago (184 vs. 138), giving you more options... and we haven't even reached the Spring market yet!

Prices Are Holding Steady - Home prices flattened in 2025 after years of rapid increases. It is not yet clear how long this level period will last, but enjoy it while it is here.

Key Takeaways for Sellers...

Many Homes Are Taking Slightly Longer to Sell - Days on market have ticked up from 6 to 8 days. While this is only a slight uptick, pricing and presentation continue to be more important than ever to ensure a speedy and successful sale.

Expect Only Modest Price Gains - The market is no longer seeing the large year-over-year price jumps of the past. You should be prepared for pricing that's comparable to or only slightly higher than last year.

Slower Months Ahead - January and February typically are slower months for contracts to be signed, though plenty of sellers who have listed their homes thus far in 2026 have found success already.

If you are considering selling your home this Spring (or sooner) or if you are getting ready for a home purchase in 2026, let's set up a time to chat to talk about the market, the process and your dreams and goals.