Between 2020 and 2024 the median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham increased by an average of 9% per year.  Those four years of price increases resulted in a $100K increase in the median sales price in our area.

But... over the past year... the median sales price has increased by less than 1%.  

What might this mean for the future?

I think there are three possible scenarios for the next few years...

1.  Prices start rising more quickly again... perhaps at a rate of 2% to 4% per year.

2.  Prices continue to hover where they are now.

3.  Prices decline slightly.

The last time we saw a significant increase in our median sales price was between 2003 and 2006, so let's take a look at that "last time" to see what happened afterwards...

As shown above, the median sales price increased at an average of 15% per year between 2003 and 2006, which was then followed by two years of hovering sales prices and then three years of slight declines (average of 2% per year) before the median sales price started to rise again.

Will history repeat itself?  Will we see home prices hover for a year or two and then decline slightly before starting to increase again?

I don't think we need to assume that we will see this same pattern play out again... but only the next year or two will tell that story.  

What changes in median sales price do you think we will see over the next few years in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?