Pending home sales is the most timely indicator of what we should expect in the very near future for closed home sales.

A pending home sale is a house that is under contract.

Two springs ago (2021) the number of pending sales peaked at 373.

Last spring (2022) the number of pending sales peaked at 416.

There are currently only 261 pending home sales.

As such, it seems likely that we'll see fewer closed home sales over the next few months.

But, interestingly, this lower level of pending home sales does not necessarily seem to be a result of an insufficient number of buyers wanting to buy -- but rather, an insufficient number of sellers willing to sell.

This seems to be a supply side issue inventory levels (the number of homes on the market for sale) remain stubbornly low. 

If we were seeing fewer pending home sales, and inventory levels climbing, this would be an indication that buyer demand is declining.  That is not what we're seeing.

So long as fewer sellers are willing to sell, we are likely going to continue to see lower numbers of pending home sales, and lower numbers of closed home sales unless new construction options increase to provide additional housing options for home buyers.