Contract activity slowed considerably in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021...

Oct- Dec 2021 = 383 contracts signed

Oct - Dec 2022 = 230 contracts signed

That's a 40% decline in contract activity!

 

Those higher mortgage interest rates seemed to finally make an impact in the fourth quarter last year.

As a result, one of the indicators I am watching closely this year is contract activity in 2023.

The graph above shows the number of contracts signed in January for each of the past five years including 2023.

Here's what we find...

• 17% decline from 2022*
• 31% decline from 2021*
• 8% decline from 2020**
  
• 11% increase from 2019

So, all in all, I'm not overly surprised, disappointed or concerned about the 93 contracts signed in January 2023.

I expected we would see fewer contracts signed than in the past two to three years when super low interest rates and Covid's impact on the real estate market were driving record amounts of home buying activity.

It's encouraging to see that where were more contracts signed in in January 2023 than in January 2019.

It will be interesting to see how things continue to track as we move through the rest of the first quarter of 2023.