Brought to you by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, 540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Brought to you by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, 540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Friday, March 27, 2020
I don't think I had ever heard of the concept of social distancing prior to March 2020. Maybe it was a thing, but just not a part of our common vernacular? Anyhow -- it's here now, and real -- but the question that many of you have asked me is whether social distancing is affecting market activity in our area.
Above is a first look at that -- and I'm coming to a conclusion of "maybe, maybe not, maybe not yet, who knows" -- so, you're welcome in advance for the great clarity I will be providing here. ;-)
The graph above shows the number of contracts that were signed (by buyers and sellers) for houses in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between January 1 and March 25 of each of the past two years, as well as this year.
A few observations...
- This January was a good bit stronger than the same month in 2018 and 2019.
- This February was also much stronger than the same month in 2018 and 2019.
- This March (or the first 25 days of it) was slower than the same timeframe during 2018 and 2019 - but not drastically slower.
- The total contracts signed thus far this year is still well above the number signed during the same timeframe for 2018 and 2019.
So, now you see why I concluded what I did...
- It is possible that social distancing has slowed down some buyer activity because this March was slower than 2018 and 2019 and we likely would have otherwise expected it to be stronger than 2018 and 2019 given January and February performance.
- It is possible that social distancing has not really had much of an impact on buyer activity because the average March 1 through March 25 buyer activity (during 2018 and 2019) was 101 contracts -- and we only saw a 7% decline in contract activity given this year's 94 contracts during that same timeframe.
- We might be able to blame it all on the sellers. Perhaps fewer sellers are putting their houses on the market because of social distancing, causing buyer activity to be lower because there aren't houses for the buyers to contract to buy.
Anyhoo - we'll just have to continue to monitor the impact of social distancing on our local housing market - but thus far, we have not seen a drastic decline in the amount of buyer activity.
