
As is my annual tradition, I am making some predictions about what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market in 2020.
Above, you'll note that there was only a 1% increase in home sales between 2018 and 2019 -- and I am predicting a 2% increase between 2019 and 2020. A few thoughts along those lines...
- I believe buyer demand is still quite high and will continue to be high through the year. We have a steady and growing economy, this is a desirable place to live, and interest rates are still tremendously low.
- While continued low inventory levels could result in a decline in home sales in 2020, thus far the limited inventory has translated mostly into faster sales and not into fewer sales.
- New construction (or lack thereof) could sway these numbers in either direction. Much of the new construction that is happening right now is housing to be rented, not purchased.
So -- I'm betting on another increase, albeit a small increase, in the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020.
And how about those prices...
As shown above, we saw a 7% increase in the median sales price in 2018, followed by a 5% increase in 2019! I am -- perhaps too boldly (?) -- predicting we'll see another 5% increase in the median sales price this year. If I'm wrong on either prediction, perhaps it will be this one -- perhaps we'll start to see prices rising, but not quite as fast as they have over the past two years. The chances seem relatively low that we'd see an actual decline in the median sales price in 2020.