And how about if we break it down between detached homes (almost all purchased by owner occupants) and attached homes (mostly purchased by owner occupants, but also purchased by investors)...

And now for that pretty visualization of the month to month ebb and flow of home sales...

Here (above) we note that every summer is different.  Last year (blue line) June was a spectacular month for home sales - with 174 closings - more than seen anytime (ever!) in our local area.  This year (the red line) June home sales were mediocre at best.  But then, July and August home sales were stronger this summer as compared to last year.

Looking ahead to September, I anticipate that we're likely to see around 110 home sales - slightly more than the past two years, but not quite as many as back in 2016.

When we pile all of the months on top of each other we can get a clearer view of how the first eight months of this year (Jan-Aug) compares to the first eight months of the past four years.  And this is where we find that we have had the best first eight months of anytime in at least the past five years.  Given the current trajectory, it seems likely that we'll see at least 1,300 home sales this year.

This graph shows us the overall long term trends in local home sales.  The green line is the median sales price which has been creeping its way up over the past year.  The orange line shows the annual rate of home sales, which has been hovering around 1,300 home sales for the past year.

Focusing in just on the detached homes, we see that the median sales price has been increasing anywhere from 2% to 7% per year for each of the past four years.  This year we are likely to see another increase in the median sales price somewhere in that range.

With steady home sales and increasing sales prices, it's a great time to be a seller.  But not as great of a time to be a buyer.  As shown above, there have been a relatively stable number of home buyers over the past few years, but the number of homes for sale at any given point has been steadily declining for over three years.

Why do I think we'll see 110 home sales in September?  Well, partially because 120 home buyers signed contracts in August.  This was a higher rate of contract activity than last August and suggests that sales will continue to be relatively strong as we continue into the Fall.

And here (above) are those overall inventory numbers.  The number of homes for sale has been declining over the past year.  We used to see much more of an increase in available inventory during the Spring months but this past year buyers were contracting on new listings almost as fast as they were being listed, which kept the inventory levels low.

Here's a startling statistic.  Inventory levels have declined 13% over the past year when we look just at detached homes -- but when we look just at attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) we find a shocking 50% decline in the number of homes for sale!  It is a tough time to be a first time buyer these days!

Finally, mortgage interest rates.  If there is any consolation for today's home buyer it is that their mortgage interest rate is likely to be lower than anytime in the past year or longer.  Interest rates have fallen 21% over the past year -- from 4.52% to 3.58%.