If you have been looking for a new home to buy all Spring and Summer and Fall of this year -- and didn't find one, which you blame on having very few homes from which to choose -- are you likely to have better luck next year?

I'm guessing not.

The graph above shows that inventory levels have dropped significantly over the past two years based on how many homes are on the market at the start of the main buying season, which I'm defining as April in the graph above.

So -- after seeing a 20% decline in inventory levels between April 2017 and April 2018 -- are we likely to see inventory levels start increasing again in 2019?  Again, I don't think so, and here's why....

To reverse this trends of declining inventory we would need one or more of the following to happen in our local market....

• A decline in buyer interest / activity -- which only seems to be happening (slightly) because of lower inventory levels. 
   
• A decrease in the rate of people moving to this area.  Seems unlikely -- we're one of the fastest growing areas in Virginia.
   
• An increase in the rate of people moving out of this area.  Seems unlikely -- it's pretty nice here, unemployment is low, quality of life is high, etc.
   
• More new homes being built.  This is not currently happening at a very rapid pace in and around Harrisonburg.
   
• Sellers selling who don't have to buy.  This could be older homeowners who are moving into a retirement community, or people selling to then build themselves a home on their own land, etc.

Again -- none of the changes above seem likely to happen at a scale that would allow inventory levels to see much, if any, of an increase next year.  As such, I am expecting we'll see relatively similar inventory levels next Spring and Summer. 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news -- as always, just trying to give folks realistic expectations for the future.