Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home in Stone Spring Village by visiting
1520AppleRidgeCourt.com.
VIDEO OVERVIEW:
Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market.
Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...
As shown above...
- Home sales fell 6.67% in September as compared to last September -- and were even lower than the September before that.
- Year-to-date home sales are still 3.75% higher than they were last year at this time.
- The year-to-date median sales price has risen 8.42% over the past year to $212,500.
- Homes are selling 34% faster this year than last -- with a median days on market of 21 days.
Looking backwards a bit -- the crazy months of sales we saw in June and July of this year were a bit unusual -- way out of the norm. The slower months of sales seen in August and September were much more "normal" -- even if a bit slower than usual.
Two years ago was a rock star of a year of real estate sales. After only 1,125 home sales in 2015 -- the local market saw a huge increase to 1,313 home sales in 2016. And then -- 2017 -- darn, we slipped a bit. It's hard to say at this point where 2018 will fit into the mix. I am guessing we'll beat last year's 1,261 home sales -- but probably won't make it all the way up to 2016 levels.
So -- as shown above with a green line -- sales prices have sort of been escalating a bit lately. Less than a year ago we had just cleared a $200K median sales price -- and now we're way up to $212K. Hmmm -- doesn't seem sustainable. What gives? Read on.
If we dial it back a bit and just look at single family homes (not duplexes, condos, townhouses -- all of which are prime real estate investor targets) we see a much (!!) more modest increase in the median sales price. An increase from $225K to $229K over a one year period seems to be a much more reasonable increase in the local median sales price -- and one that seems like it could be sustainable. This calms my nerves a bit after having seen that sharp rise in the overall median sales price.
So -- how's the market, you might ask? Pretty balanced? Not at all! There are a steady flow of buyers in the local market -- and an ever smaller group of sellers. We desperately need some new sellers in the market -- preferably who aren't also buying -- which often will mean we need to see some new construction.
Looking ahead, we might see a bit of a pop in October home sales after all! September contracts were strong -- and markedly higher than last September. In fact, contracts over the past year (1316) were a good bit higher than the previous 12 months (1256). October sales figures might look better than expected!
And here is that inventory issue - visualized slightly differently. Today's buyers have 18% fewer choices as compared to a year ago -- and 39% fewer choices as compared to two years ago! What is a buyer to do these days?