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I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market...
Now, let's take a closer look at some of this month's data....
As can be seen above....
- Home sales declined during November 2016 to 94 sales -- a 17% decline from last November.
- Home sales are down 6% thus far in 2017 as compared to the past 11 months of last year.
- The median sales price has risen 3% over the past year, when comparing January through November of this year to last year.
- Homes are selling a good bit faster this year than last -- with a 35% decline in median sales price, down to 33 days.
Last year certainly was interesting!?! Or odd!?!
Last August, September and November were OFF THE CHARTS as far as a record number of home sales for those months -- which then makes this year's sales trajectory seem as slow as mud in August, September and November. This November's sales were a good bit higher than in 2014 and 2015 -- but were solidly below November 2016.
So -- despite the fact that 2017 is hiding in the shadows of a towering year of sales in 2016 -- it is interesting to note that the 11 months of home sales thus far in 2017 (all 1,149 of them) has already surpassed the full 12 months of sales seen in 2013 (1067 sales), 2014 (1085 sales) and 2015 (1125 sales). As such -- while total home sales will likely be 5% to 6% lower this year than last -- that will still mark a solid improvement as compared to any other recent year.
After quite a few years of steady increases in buyer activity -- we are starting to see a decline. Over the past six months we have seen buyer activity taper off and start to decline. I believe this is a direct result of the drastic reductions in the availability of homes for those buyers to buy. As the number of sellers in the market at any given time has declined, eventually that also resulted in a reduction in the pace of buying activity.
Yeah, so, about those inventory levels. They are low and getting lower!?! And, realistically, when and how do we think that would or could change? In theory, inventory levels will rise this coming Spring -- except they didn't during 2017. Looking back, the end of last November was the highest inventory level we saw for the following 12 months!?! So -- hmmm -- absent any outside factors (new home construction, anyone?) it is possible that the current inventory level (322 homes for sale) could be the highest inventory level we will see for the next 12 months!?! Stop and think about that for a moment....
Somewhat interestingly, as shown above, there has been a larger (proportional) decline in inventory levels for attached properties (townhouses, duplexes, condos) than for single family detached properties. There are now only 56 townhouse/duplex/condo properties available for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County!
And finally -- one last look at some interesting trends....
As shown above, nearly half (46%) of homes that are selling (not of all that are listed) are selling (going under contract) within 30 days of hitting the market. So -- yes -- the market is moving pretty quickly in many locations and price ranges!
OK -- I'll stop there for now. There is plenty more in my full market report, so feel free to download it as a PDF, read the entire report online, or watch/listen to a video overview of this month's report.
And, my reminders for buyers and sellers last month still apply....
SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing.
For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out....
