Traditional logic would say no -- the construction of new college student housing in Harrisonburg won't increase the load on elementary schools, as most college students do not have elementary school aged children....

Going a step further, I would guess that some local government staff and elected officials MIGHT (?) use this traditional logic when thinking about whether to approve rezonings, or other approvals, for new student housing to be built in the Harrisonburg area.

But wait - what if the following sequence happens (thanks Deb, with some revisions)....

• Shiny new student housing is built.
• College students flock to the new living options.
• Vacancy rates increase at older, run down student housing complexes.
• Families start moving into older student housing complexes.
• These families increase the elementary school aged population.
  
• Local elementary schools have more students to educate.
  

I think we have seen this happen over the past 20 years in Harrisonburg, in cycles, as large quantities of student housing is built in waves. 

And think about it, from the other direction, for a moment -- we all know that the local elementary school population is growing -- but why, and where? It's not as if local developers and builders are out building an extraordinary number of townhomes or starter homes for young families, causing an influx of new elementary school students.  So -- if the elementary school population is rising, and it's not because of an increase in the stock of owner occupied real estate in Harrisonburg, then....

1.  Perhaps this elementary (or K-12, really) school enrollment growth is, contrary to what we'd otherwise believe, a direct result of an increase in college student housing.

2.  Perhaps we need to think about the fiscal impact of educating more elementary (and then middle and high) school students when we think about approving yet another student housing complex.

3.  Perhaps, if building new student housing when we might not really need it, leads to increased demands on our local K-12 schools, then maybe we need to pay more attention to whether that student housing is needed.

Just some thoughts to ponder as we think about and plan for the future here in the City of Harrisonburg -- and Rockingham County.