Some folks would look at home sales over the past seven years (shown above) and comment that home sales are increasing at a very fast pace -- showing a 52% increase since 2010 -- or around 9% per year.  Of note -- this is not even including December 2016 home sales, so the rate of increase would be even a bit higher.



Others would look at home sales over the past 16 years (shown above) and comment that home sales have only had a small net increase over time -- and that the increases we have seen over the past seven years have been catching us back up to a normal amount of buyers buying in any given year.

I tend to fall into the second group. 

I believe that a "normal" (or "typical"?) number of buyers were buying in 2001/2002 -- and that we started to see the housing boom (loose lending standards, irrational buying craze) starting in 2003.  If that is the case, then we have barely seen a net increase between 2001/2002 and 2016. 

If we round this year (2016) up to 1300 home sales (to include December), and we average 2001/2002 to come up with 1112 home sales, then we have seen a 17% increase in sales over the past 14 years -- or an average of a 1.2% increase per year.

Then, let's put it in the context of population growth....

2001 Population Estimates per the Weldon Cooper Center....

• City of Harrisonburg = 41,480
• Rockingham County = 68,663
• Harrisonburg + Rockingham = 110,143

2015 Population Estimates per the Weldon Cooper Center....

• City of Harrisonburg = 53,875
• Rockingham County = 79,134
• Harrisonburg + Rockingham = 133,009

As shown above, we've seen a 20.7% increase in population in this 14 years timespan, or an average of 1.5% per year.

So, in a 14 year timespan, we've seen a 1.5% average annual increase in population as well as a 1.2% average annual increase in home sales.  That seems to be a reasonable growth in home sales -- perhaps even with some further upside potential for further increases.

As such, if we do see 1300 home sales this year, I think we are likely to see at least the same number next year.