Yesterday I ran an analysis on single family home values -- which suggested that home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price.

Today, we're answering a similar question for townhouses....

So, let's say one bought a townhouse in 2008or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a townhouse to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)?

OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your townhouse depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home.  Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2005) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their townhouse -- and people who bought between 2006 and 2010 have a lower home value today.  Townhouse buyers in recent years (2011-2013) are doing just fine.

So, back to the question at hand -- how long it will take townhouses to return to the value that they had when they were purchased.  As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years.  This analysis shows that....

• Buyers from 2000 - 2005 as well as 2011 - 2013 are good to go -- their home values are likely already higher than they were when they purchased their townhouses.
  
  
• Buyers from 2010 are likely to see a return to their original home value in 2015.
   
• Buyers from 2006 are likely to see a return to their original home value in 2016.
   
  
• Buyers from 2007 - 2009 are likely to see a return to their original home value somewhere between 2017 and 2018.  See the chart for details.

And, as usual, a few disclaimers....

• The data above is analyzing changes in the median sales price of all townhouses - thus, your townhouse's value is likely to follow these general trends, but this is not an absolute guide.
   
• Certainly, if we don't see 3% per-year increases in the median values of townhouses over the next five (etc.) years, then this analysis will not be accurate.

Hopefully this is a helpful look at the implications of shifting market values over time.  If you have a question about the value of your townhouses, please let me know.  I'd be happy to meet with you to give you some specific feedback pertinent to your home -- as compared to the generalities referenced above.

And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.