Friends and Colleagues --- Our local housing market has finally done it -- after a five year slide (and a 55% drop) in the pace of home sales, the tide has finally turned in 2011.  Our local real estate market showed a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales last year, even though the median sales price declined another 3%.

Jump to the PDF of my monthly market report, or keep reading for an overview.

Speeding through the finish line....



The local housing market didn't slow down for the close of 2011 -- it poured on the gas to accelerate through the finish line with a strong month of 79 home sales in December.  This was the strongest December in at least four years.  October and November could have had us worried, with sales in the 50's, but apparently the market was holding back to create an exciting photo finish in December.

The Great Reversal....



After five years of seeing fewer and fewer home sales in our local area (from 1669 in 2005 down to 758 in 2010) we finally experienced an increase in buyer activity during 2011 -- with 791 home sales.  This marks a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales.  The not-quite-as-exciting news, of course, is that the median sales price declined another 2.83% over the past year.  But certainly, we needed to see this stability (and now growth) in sales pace before we could reasonably expect to see stability in sales prices.

Hello Buyers, Good Bye Sellers....



For the past few years, there have been too many sellers in the market, and too few buyers.  2011, however, has told a different story -- one of returning stability.  Not only did home sales increase 4% in 2011, but inventory levels declined 15%.  While we still have a ways to go, both of these trends are headed in the direction of increased stability in our local real estate market.

We Won't Miss You Mr. Foreclosure....



Foreclosures (and then bank owned homes) have dragged housing markets down across the country.  Thankfully, not only did home sales increase this year in our local market (blue bars above), but foreclosures also declined (red bars above).  This 17% decline in foreclosures during 2011 shows promise for fewer bank owned homes, and greater market stability in 2012.

What else would help?  Lower interest rates?  Lower unemployment rates?



The stage is set for further stability in our local housing market during 2012 -- mortgage interest rates are at historic lows (below 4%) and our local unemployment rate is at its lowest level in over two years.

Looking Forward

After a 2005 peak, and a 2010 valley, 2011 brought a long awaited step towards stability in our local housing market as sales began to increase again.  The pace of home sales is likely to increase even further in 2012, and we just might start to see some stability in median prices --- if not in 2012, then I would imagine we would certainly see that in 2013.

For a more detailed look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, download my full market report as a PDF.

And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
   

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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com