For each of the past five years, there have been fewer and fewer home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  First 1669 (2005), then 1438, then 1248, then 936, then 816, then 758 (2010).  After this 55% decline in home sales, I know that we haven't seen a bottom to the local real estate market until we see the number of home buyers start to increase again. 

I am certainly rooting for 2011 to be the year that we see a reversal -- when we'll finally see an increase in home sales.  The graph above, however, shows that we'll need to see a strong second half of 2011 in order for my prediction to come true.

Of interest, you might note that:

• April and June were the strong months last year, two of the deadlines for the federal home buyer tax credit.
• This July should be a strong month of sales -- it was the highest month of sales in 2009, and was only a slim month of sales in 2010 because of the June 2010 expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit.

Stay tuned --- the magic number for 2011 is 759 --- one more home sale than in 2010.  Can it happen???  I'm still voting YES!