We have seen significant declines in home values in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past several years --- though nowhere near the level of declines seen in many metro areas.  One common question, however, is what does the future look like.



Between 2003 and 2006, we might have thought that home values would increase forever (shown above).  This was obviously unrealistic and unsustainable.




I also don't think we'll see median prices fall in a straight line forever in the same trajectory as we've seen for the past several years.




Projecting based only on 2000 to 2001 data might get closer to reality, but we'd have to start seeing a rather dramatic uptick in values here in the next year or so to get back on track.




The graph above is perhaps my best guess for the future.  It presupposes that 2000 through 2003 showed normal increases in home values, and that things then escalated out of control from 2003 through 2006.  The market then stayed relatively level between 2006 and 2008 before finally starting to correct between 2008 and 2011.  The question remains, however -- will we have to dip below the trend line before coming back up to meet it?