In talking to a Daily News Record reporter last week I made a BOLD PREDICTION, that the local housing market would probably NOT improve this year.  I felt somewhat bad about making such a prediction --- being so pessimistic!  But wait --- the BOLD part was predicting that it wouldn't get any worse!

Since 2006, the pace of home sales has been declining:

• 2006 as compared to 2005: decline of 14%
• 2007 as compared to 2006: decline of 13%
• 2008 as compared to 2007: decline of 25%
• 2009 as compared to 2008: decline of 13%

So.....while I'm not predicting that our real estate market will improve this year, I also don't think it is likely to get worse.  That is to say that last year there were 816 residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, and I am predicting that the 2010 sales figure will be very close to that same number. 

Check out the data:

• Sales between 1/1/2009 and 3/22/2009 = 124 sales
  
• Sales between 1/1/2010 and 3/22/2010 = 124 sales
  
• YES, THAT'S RIGHT --- an exactly equivalent sales pace

Also of note, CBS's MoneyWatch made price predictions for all metro areas, and predicts only a 2.2% to 0.7% decline in sales price over the next year+.  That would be welcome news to many in our local market who are hoping that prices do not decline any further than the small amounts that they already have.