There are some who are predicting that the coming months will be QUITE slow in terms of home sales.  After all, the first time buyer tax credit is ending, and we're entering into winter -- a season that always brings slower sales.  But looking at the trajectory of sales between the most recent two quarters (2009-Q2, 2009-Q3), I'm left starting to wonder whether things might be picking up in pace....



As you can see in the graph above, there were a roughly equivalent number of Q2 and Q3 homes sales last year.  This year, however, despite both data points lying below the 2008 figures --- we saw a 15% increase in sales between Q2 and Q3.  With last year's astonishingly slow fourth quarter, I think there is a good chance our local real estate market will finish out the year strong with lots of home sales in October, November and December.

Why are home sales picking up in pace?  One plausible reason is that lots of first time buyers are getting in the market who might not have otherwise, or might not have last year.  Check out the graph below, showing the change in pace of home sales under $175k.



As you can see above, home sales in Q3 of this year surpassed (barely) last year's Q3 sales figure.  It seems quite plausible that this trend will continue in Q4, and that it may be largely a result of the tax credit for first time buyers.

Stay tuned as we move into and through October, November and December, but I don't believe real estate sales will be as slow as some predict.