The Daily News Record ran an interesting article yesterday which reinforces what I have been stating in my monthly home sales reports for quite some time now --- sales volume is down, median and average sales prices are stable.  Ex. December 2008 Report.

However, the comments in the DNR article were of quite a different persuasion -- the commentators were quite sure the assertion of stable home values was bogus. 

Here's where I stand on the issue:

1. Our market is a lot better off than most other parts of the state and country.
2. It is very difficult to make generalizations (even across our relatively small market) about whether home values are increasing, decreasing or staying the same.
3. I'm going to keep trying to find helpful perspectives from which to answer that question.
   

A few days ago I made my first attempt at explaining the validity (or invalidity) of median home sales pricing trends, and also examined lots of other ways to measure values over time.  See the lengthy article here.

Today I'm going to take a closer look at one very narrow property type to examine value trends over time....

New-ish (2000+) two-story townhomes in the City of Harrisonburg with 1200-1500 s.f., without basements or garages.  This includes developments such as Avalon Woods, Beacon Hill, Liberty Square, Harmony Heights, Meadow Point and Wellington Park.



Prior to this analysis, my assumption was that tracking median price trends across our entire market (which show stability) does not reveal true value trends.  I suspected that we would see the median price trend analysis break down if we limited it solely to one very specific property type.  However, as seen above, median prices of very similar townhouses in Harrisonburg have stayed stable over the last year.  I was wrong!

But perhaps the most interesting part of this segment of the market is not found by looking at sold properties, but by examining those currently offered for sale.  A few observations:

1. There are 20 properties currently offered for sale (active or under contract) that fit the same criteria as listed above. 
   
2. These properties are priced between $138,500 and $166,900
3. The median asking price of the 20 properties is $159,900, which is 2% below the 2008 median selling price.
   
4. Only two of the properties listed have asking prices above the 2008 median selling price of $162,700.

Looking even closer at home values through the lenses of new-ish townhomes in the City of Harrisonburg, we find that home values have remained relatively stable over the past year --- though it would be difficult to sell right now at the same price for which your neighbor sold last year.

Still think this data or analysis is bogus, or missing some critical perspective?  Tell me about it!  Use the comment field below, or e-mail me at scott@cbfunkhouser.com.