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Detached Homes Are Proportionally More Prevalent In Rockingham County Than In Virginia |
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 While we might currently be seeing more new townhouses being built (and bought) than detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, when we look at Rockingham County's housing stock... there is a greater share of detached homes here than there are across Viriginia. Looking at all of Rockingham County's housing stock... 73% of existing homes are detached single family homes. In Virginia, only 61.5% of the housing stock is comprised of detached single family homes. Many of the recently proposed new housing developments in the City and County are for townhouses and/or apartments -- so we might slowly see the figures above shift over time, but for now, we have quite a few more detached homes (proportionally) in our overall housing stock than is seen when looking at the entirety of Virginia. | |
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How Much Should (The Population Of) Rockingham County Grow? |
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 I think this has been a popular topic of conversation for all 21 of the years that I have been working in real estate here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Is the population of Rockingham County growing too quickly? The chart above (Population Growth) is pulled from the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan. Over the past 30 years (1990 - 2020) we have seen an average of a 1.26% growth in the County population per year. This has resulted in an increase of 26,275 people. Over the next 30 years (2020 - 2050) we are estimated to see an average of a 0.74% growth in the County population per year. This will result in an increase of 20,724 people. So, per the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan... it seems that we will be growing more slowly over the next 30 years (by percentage and by number) as compared to the growth we have seen over the past 30 years. Is this 0.74% per year the right amount of growth? I imagine there are some who would say it's just right... some who would say it's way too much... and some who might say it is not enough. | |
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More Than Half Of New Home Buyers Are Buying Attached Homes |
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 Most buyers of new homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are buying attached homes... though just barely. 52% of new home buyers (191) bought attached homes over the past year 48% of new home buyers (178) bought detached homes over the past year Two reasons come to mind as to why we are seeing just as many (or slightly more) buyers buying new attached homes as detached homes... [1] It's what the builders are building. [2] The price point of attached homes is more affordable. Here's how the median sales price of detached and attached homes compare over the past 12 months... Detached Homes = Median Sales Price of $406,250 ($210/SF) Attached Homes = Median Sales Price of $328,955 ($198/SF) Moving forward, I think both of these dynamics (what is being built, price of each) will cause plenty of future buyers of new homes to be buying townhouses. Who knows... within a few years we might be seeing 60% to 70% of new home buyers buying attached homes instead of detached homes. (Attached Homes = townhouses, duplexes, condos) | |
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Is It Reasonable For A Home Buyer To Ask A Seller To Fix Every Item Mentioned In A Home Inspection Report On A Resale Home? |
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 From a local home inspector... "The purpose of a home inspection is to provide the consumer with comprehensive information to help them make a confident and informed decision when buying a home. As we complete your home inspection we have two main goals. Our first goal is to inform you about the status of the structure and systems of the home. The second goal is to explain the unique future maintenance needs of the home." You will learn more about the home you are purchasing through the home inspection process -- and you will learn about deficiencies that might exist in the home -- and you will learn about upgrades you might make in the home. So, is it reasonable for a buyer of a resale home to ask a seller to fix or address every item mentioned in a home inspection report? Usually, no, that is not reasonable. In addition to deficiencies found in a home, a home inspector is likely also going to be referencing... 1. Upgrades you might make to the home later. 2. Ways to make your home more energy efficient. 3. Parts of the home that were to code at the time it was built but that would be done differently now. So, if you're buying a home, don't plan to ask a seller to address every little thing in an inspection report. Focus, instead, on the most significant deficiencies in the home that would be the most costly or cumbersome for you to address after settlement. | |
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Will Your Offer Terms Cause The Seller To Say YES Or To Seek Other Offers? |
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 Clearly, if you are making an offer on a house, it's because you want to buy that house... so, you probably hope that the seller will accept your offer, rather than hold onto your offer for a day or two hoping to receive other more favorable offers. Thus, choose your offer terms wisely... Let's consider a house listed for $475K and the following two offers you might make...
These offers might seem very similar to you -- but they will likely seem very different to the seller. The first offer will likely cause the seller to seek other offers that might have better terms. The second offer may cause the seller to just go ahead and accept your offer. The offer you make on a home you want to purchase will elicit a reaction from the seller -- what do you want that reaction to be? Do you want them to be excited to work with you, or hoping to find another interested buyer? | |
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The Comfortable Feel Of An Established Neighborhood Might Come With, Surprise, An Older Home That Needs Some Updates |
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 An interesting dynamic in the Rockingham County real estate market is related to farmland and trees. Most land that that becomes a residential neighborhood is used as farmland before becoming a neighborhood. Thus, there usually aren't any trees on the property. This makes it easy to build the roads and houses - but means it takes a while for any trees that are planted by builders or homeowners to become established. Many home buyers love the feel of an established neighborhood, often because of the trees and other landscaping that give the neighborhood a comfortable feel. But yet, many home buyers also prefer newer homes that won't need updates and renovations. Thus, some home buyers find themselves choosing between... 1. Newer home in a newer neighborhood with young trees and not much of a feel of an established neighborhood. 2. Older (20+ years) home in a more established neighborhood with mature trees and landscaping. Which would you choose? | |
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Home Sellers And Buyers Will Often Disagree About Needed Updates |
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 A homeowner selling their home, especially if they have lived in it for a while, is often likely to only see small updates that might be needed in the home - and would likely describe them as elective...
But a potential home buyer considering a purchase of that same house might see things quite differently...
I'm not here to say that either party is right or wrong - I understand where the seller is coming from (the house doesn't need many updates) and where the buyer is coming from (I would want to make lots of updates). The challenge, of course, is when all of this is converted into pricing. A seller will likely price (value) the home higher given their minimal view on needed updates. A buyer will likely value the price at a lower price point given their broader view on needed updates. | |
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You Cannot Hear Traffic On A Nearby Road By Looking At Photos |
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 You can learn a lot from looking at the photos of a house that was just listed for sale. But, you can't... 1. Hear traffic on a nearby road. 2. Smell the odors of a nearby factory. 3. Feel the texture of the walls. (yes, a bit of a stretch) 4. Taste the well water. (also, a bit of a stretch) For these and plenty of other reasons, it is crucial that we go see a house in person to fully understand a house with all of your senses. Driving by the house will get you one step closer to a fuller understanding of the house - but seeing the house (walking around and through) is our best bet. | |
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Last Call (Just About) For Selling Your Home In 2024! |
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 Most contracts (and buyers and sellers) have been making it to closing within about 30 to 45 days. Which means, that if you decide today that you're going to sell your house, and we have it on the market by the end of October, and it is under contract within 7 to 10 days (by Nov 7 or Nov 10) a buyer might be proposing a closing date of December 15 or 20 or 30. So, as much as it might seem like there is plenty of time left this year... if you are hoping to sell your home this year, or before the holidays, you will likely need to start putting plans in place now (over the next week) to get your house on the market. You can, of course, list your home in November or December and plan to close in January or February -- but if you want to have it sold and closed by the holidays, or by the end of the year, the time to act is now! | |
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Sometimes An Offer Is So Strong A Seller Will Not Wait For Other Imminent Offers |
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 Wahoo! An exciting new listing just hit the market. You are excited to go see it and will definitely consider making an offer. You know it will likely be a popular listing, with the potential for multiple offers, but you have already been pre-approved for your mortgage, you are going to see the house on the first day it is on the market, and you will likely make an offer on the second day that it is on the market. That should be enough, right? Well, maybe. Sometimes, an offer shows up that is strong enough to cause a seller to adjust how they were otherwise planning to receive and consider offers. If an offer comes in on the fictional house above on the afternoon of the first day that it is on the market... that is above asking price, cash, without an inspection, with a closing to take place in 20 days, with the seller able to rent back for free for up to three months... 1. Who could blame the seller for going ahead and accepting this very (very!) strong offer. 2. Who could blame buyers if they are disappointed when they find out on the second morning that the house is on the market that they are too late to submit an offer. So... 1. Buyers - Be willing to make a strong offer, quickly, if you want to try to get the seller to respond before considering other offers. 2. Also, Buyers - Know that an early offer from a motivated buyer might very quickly eliminate your opportunity to compete to buy a house that you really like - so, make an offer just as quickly as you are ready to do so. | |
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If You Will Be Moving To Sunnyside, VMRC Or Bridgewater Retirement Community, We Should Talk Sooner Than Later |
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 We are fortunate in this area to have many wonderful retirement communities, such as Sunnyside, Virginia Mennonite Retirement Community (VMRC), Bridgewater Retirement Community, and many others. So, if you have lived in this area for a while, and are of a stage of life where your next move might be to one of these retirement communities, we should probably talk sooner rather than later. While your move to a retirement community might seem (and might be) well off into the future... it also might sneak up on you faster than you suspect. Once you are "on the list" at one or more of these retirement communities, you will start to receive periodic calls to let you know that a home or apartment is opening up -- with the big question of whether you want to make the move now. Oftentimes your answer might be "no" - but sometimes "just the right place" will become available at the retirement community, and all of a sudden you will be ready to make the move - and, likely, you'll need to move forward pretty quickly with getting ready to sell your home. So... if you are thinking you might move into one of these retirement communities over the next few years (or even sooner) then let's talk sooner than later to discuss what preparations you do or do not want to start making to be able to sell your home when the time comes. | |
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Sometimes It Makes Sense To Just Adopt The Timetable The Seller Prefers |
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 In a seller's market, which we are in... Sometimes It Makes Sense (for a buyer) To Just Adopt The Timetable The Seller Prefers Conversely, in a buyer's market, which we are not in... Sometimes It Makes Sense (for a seller) To Just Adopt The Timetable The Buyer Prefers Let's get into why... If you are about to make an offer on a house... and the seller prefers to close in 90 days, and you could, but you would prefer not to wait to long to close... sometimes it may make sense to just go with the timetable the seller prefers. After all, it is a seller's market, and if you don't go along with their desired timetable, they may choose to work with a buyer who will. Similarly... If you are about to make an offer on a house... and the seller prefers to close within 30 days, and you could, but you would prefer not to close quite so quickly... sometimes it may make sense to just go with the timetable the seller prefers. After all, it is a seller's market, and if you don't go along with their desired timetable, they may choose to work with a buyer who will. There may very well be costs to you (dollars, logistical headaches, stress) of going along with the seller's timetable -- but if you actually get to buy the house that you want to buy, maybe it will be worthwhile. P.S. Did you enjoy the AI generated image of a "man looking at a wall calendar"? ;-) | |
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Fewer And Fewer Resale, Detached, Homes Selling In City Of Harrisonburg |
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 Just slicing and dicing the data one more time here... this is looking at only the City of Harrisonburg, only resale homes, and only detached homes -- no duplexes, townhomes or condos. A few things to note... We are seeing a steady decline in the number of these homes selling per year over the past three years. The 2024 column (115) is only through yesterday -- so we'll see that number rise by the end of the year, but it's not likely we will end up seeing another decline in annual, existing, detached City home sales this year. The median sales price of these homes keeps on rising... after a 7% increase in 2022 and 2023, the median sales price increased slightly less (4%) thus far in 2024. As I have mentioned quite a few times, I believe this reduction in the number of buyers buying existing, detached, City homes is a result of a reduction in the number of sellers willing to sell their existing, detached, City homes. | |
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The Next Owner Of Your Home Might Love Different Parts Of It For Different Reasons, And That Is OK! |
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 If you built your home -- or if you have made any sort of improvements to it over time -- you are likely proud of your design decisions, the style and character of your home, and so many of the finishes and fixtures you carefully and intentionally chose for your home. But guess what... the next owner of your home might have an entirely different vision for your home... and might change some things or large things that you love about your current home. And... that's OK! Enjoy making your home a comfortable, enjoyable, usable, safe and happy space while you live in it -- and then know that once your home has a new owner, they might make some changes that you would have *never* (gasp!) made yourself. And again, that's OK! Some sellers are delighted to see what a next owner does with a house to make it their own. Some sellers would rather never know. Figure out which camp you're in, for the most part, and let that guide your future decisions about driving past your old home, or visiting it in the future. :-)
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Competition Is Often Fierce For City Homes! |
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 We have seen fewer, and fewer, and fewer home sales in the City of Harrisonburg over the past few years. But this is almost entirely an issue of not enough sellers being willing to sell -- not an issue of not enough buyers wanting to buy. The result is that in the current market, when a City home is listed for sale... there is often a LOT of interest in said home. This is great for home sellers in the City of Harrisonburg...
This is not quite as great for home buyers in the City of Harrisonburg...
But alas, the City of Harrisonburg remains a popular place to live. Until and unless we start to see some new construction (for sale) housing in the City of Harrisonburg, we will likely still see lots of competition for City homes when they are offered for sale. | |
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Contract Activity Increasing, Inventory Levels Decreasing, In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County |
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 Happy Crisp, Cool, October Wednesday To You! This is a fantastic time of year... one of my favorite times of the year... we'll often have both pleasantly cool and pleasantly warm temperatures in the same day... the leaves are changing colors... I get to have a ton of fun coaching middle school volleyball and watching Emily's volleyball matches... cheering for the Dukes at plenty of JMU football games... not to mention my birthday later this month. ;-) And, let's not forget another October highlight... the Harrisonburg Half Marathon...  "Funny" story... last year, I ran in the Harrisonburg Half Marathon after having been sick for a few days... and only made it through the first 10 miles before worrying all those around me by semi-collapsing. Oops! This year, at least a dozen people shouted out to me as I ran - "hey Scott, don't forget to finish this year!" - real funny guys, real funny. But yes, I did finish this year. Maybe I won't get the same jokes next year? Let's hope. :-) Before we get into the latest trends in our local housing market, each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away a seasonally appropriate $50 gift card to Showalter's Orchard in Timberville. Let this be a reminder to you to go pick some apples, enjoy some apple cider donuts, and get into the Fall season! Click here to enter to win the gift card. And now, on to the real estate data. Charts first, graphs second.  Above you'll find a snapshot of the overall market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, showing... [1] Despite a small (3%) drop in home sales in September (101 down to 98) we have seen an 8% increase in home sales when comparing the first nine months of this year to the first nine months of last year. Home sales are on the rise. [2] The median sales price of those homes that sold in 2024 has been "only" 5% higher than it was a year ago. I say "only" because we have seen multiple years of 10% increases in the median sales price, so this 5% increase is a smaller increase than we have otherwise seen in recent years. Interestingly, we see slightly different trends if we focus in on only detached homes... excluding townhomes, duplexes and condos...  [1] Compared to the market-wise 8% increase in home sales in 2024, we have only seen a 5% increase in detached home sales. We're not seeing the number of detached homes selling bounce back quite as much as we are seeing that in the overall market. [2] The detached home sales market is outperforming the overall market when it comes to sales prices. The median sales price of a detached home has increased 11% (from $350K to $390K) over the past year as compared to the 5% increase seen in the overall market. Thus, you likely won't be surprised to see the opposite trends in the attached home sales report which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos...  When looking just at attached home sales we find... [1] There has been a much larger increase in the number of these sales that are taking place with a 14% year to date increase, compared to the 8% increase in the overall market. [2] The increase in median sales price has been a smidge smaller (4%) than in the overall market (5%) thus far in 2024. Next, let's take a quick peek at one smaller segment of the local market... the City of Harrisonburg...  If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg, you likely won't have that many options. After seeing 335 home sales in the first nine months of 2022, that dropped to 241 sales last year, and has now fallen to 210 home sales this year. These declines in home sales are not a result of fewer buyers wanting to buy -- it is almost entirely (or entirely) a result of fewer sellers being willing to sell -- and little to no new home construction taking place in the City. In contrast, in Rockingham County...  Home sales are booming (+15% YTD) in Rockingham County, due in large part to new home communities springing up almost entirely in the County rather than in the City. While we aren't back to 2022 sales levels, we have seen a solid increase in County home sales activity in 2024 as compared to 2023. Finally, a synopsis of those new home sales that are a significant part of the local housing market in a time when many homeowners do not want to sell their homes...  Two things to note here... [1] While the overall market has seen only an 8% increase in the number of homes selling in the City and County, we have seen a (much larger) 28% increase in the number of new homes selling this year compared to last. [2] Despite a 5% increase in the median sales price of the entire market, we are only seeing a 3% increase in the median sales price of new homes. And again, let's not be too surprised by the opposite indicators in the resale market...  Looking just at resale homes, or existing home sales... [1] There has only been a 1% increase in the number of existing homes selling this year... compared to an 8% increase in the overall market. Thus, that 8% increase in overall home sales is almost entirely due to new homes being built and available for sale. [2] The median sales price of existing homes has risen 7% over the past year, at a slightly higher rate than the overall market where the median sales price has only risen 5%. And now... moving beyond the words, to some graphs...  On the graph above, you can see that the months of May (144), June (128), July (131) and August (113) all out performed the same months last year when it came to the number of home sales that went to closing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But... we saw fewer home sales this September (98) than last September (101) so maybe home sales are slowing down a bit? Hold that theory for a few more graphs and we'll see if it is reinforced by recent contract activity. While we're holding that thought, let's see where nine months of home sales have taken us thus far in 2024...  Home sales are on the rise! We've seen 1,003 home sales in the first nine months of last year, which is solidly above where things stood last year (933) though is still well below the number of home sales we were seeing in 2022. At this point it seems very likely that we will finish out 2024 with more home sales than last year (1,206) but we seem very (very) unlikely to rebound back to the 1,571 home sales seen in 2022. And here are those long term, slow moving, trendlines that are important to monitor over time...  The green line above shows that while the median sales price is still steadily increasing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... the pace at which is increasing is... slowing. After a few years of 10% annual increase in the median sales price, we seem likely to only see a 5% annual increase in 2024. But... as shown by the blue line... home sales are rising again. A few graphs from now you'll see that mortgage interest rates hit their 20+ year high in October 2023, and lo and behold, once those rates started drifting back downward again... home sales started to rise again. Now, contract activity. Remembering back a few graphs, we were wondering if a slight decline in September home sales meant that we would see an overall slower Fall sales season. Per this graph, I'm going to say no...  Two things to note above... [1] July through August contract activity generally fell last year (blue line) while it has been rising this year (red line) indicating we should see stronger home sales over the next few months. [2] Contract activity *really* fell last October and November... likely due to the highest mortgage interest rates in 20+ years. We are not seeing those same high rates this year, so contract activity seems likely to be well exceed last year's figures in October and November. And... a slow rise in contract activity over the past few months has resulted in...  Lower inventory levels! Over the past two months we have seen small but steady declines in the number of homes listed for sale (that are not under contract) as compared to a steady increase between last June and October. We seem unlikely to see a rapid rise in inventory levels this October and November, as last year's increase was likely directly related to 7.5%+ mortgage interest rates that (thankfully) just lasted for a few months. This next (and second to last) graph has become more interesting of late...  The big question... is seasonality back when it comes to "median days on market" in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Over the past two years we have seen this median days on market metric increase in the Fall and Winter and decline in the Spring and Summer. Will we see that happen again as we roll through November, December, January and February? Stay tuned! Finally, we've talked about mortgage interest rates a half dozen times thus far, so let's see what they have been doing...  Mortgage interest rates have been falling for the past five months to a low of 6.08% at the end of September... down from 7.31% a year ago. These lower mortgage interest rates have progressively lowered mortgage payments for actual buyers and would be buyers and has likely brought more buyers back into the market at many price points. And there you have it folks, in summary...
All that said, this is all much more nuanced in any particular segment of the market based on property type, size, age, location, etc. So... If you are thinking about selling your home this Fall, let's dive into the trends for your corner of our local real estate market to determine the best pricing strategy for your home. If you are thinking about buying a home this Fall, go ahead and get pre-approved and let's start looking at new listings of interest as they hit the market, as they likely won't last long. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until next month... enjoy Fall... and may you not forget to finish whatever race you are currently running... literally or figuratively. ;-) | |
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How Will You Value Logistical Ease When Selling Your Home? |
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 For anyone who is selling a home and buying a home at the same time, there are some logistics we'll have to work through... If you are using the proceeds from your home sale to purchase the next home, there might be some wrinkles as to the closing and occupancy timeline. Do you move everything out of your current house on Wednesday, close on Thursday on both the sale and purchase and move into your new house on Thursday? That sounds simple enough, but it would likely be much easier if there were some overlap of occupancy of the two houses. What if you could move into your new home a week before closing? What if you could wait to be completely out of your current home until a week after closing? The buyer of your current home, or the seller of your new home, might be willing to participate in making the moving logistics easier for you... but that logistical ease might come at a cost. Would you be willing to sell your current home for $5K less, or buy the new home for $5K more if you could have the logistical ease of having access to both houses to aid in the move from one to the next? How much value does this logistical ease have to you? | |
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Just When You Were Not Expecting It, The Perfect House Came On The Market! |
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 Sometimes, it really does happen! You've been searching for just the right home for months, or even years, and it seems like you might never find the right house. You're convinced the right house is out there, but the seller or such a house must just not be ready to sell. But then... one day... just when you were not expecting it... the perfect house came on the market! Are you ready to move quickly? 1. Can you go see it on the first day it is on the market? 2. Do you already have a lender letter in hand to be able to submit an offer right away? 3. Have you looked at enough other houses recently to know whether the home is priced well? If it's been a while (or forever) since you have seen a listing that would work for you -- when you do see that perfect fit, I hope you are ready to make a move! | |
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953 New Townhomes, Apartments, Detached Homes Proposed On 161 Acres At Quarry Heights |
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 download a larger version of the concept plan here A sizable new housing development is being proposed in the City of Harrisonburg, to include up to 953 new housing units on 161 acres just west of downtown Harrisonburg at the site of Frazier Quarry, which would be transformed into a 30 acre lake. The new development would be located on the north side of West Market Street generally across from Thomas Harrison Middle School and would border Waterman Drive.  click here for a larger version of the area map Here are some basics on the types of housing that are proposed for this new housing development:
Of the 653 townhouses and detached homes, approximately 48 housing units are estimated to be detached homes. This proposed new housing development is similar in size to Preston Lake, which is just east of Harrisonburg, located in Rockingham County. The conceptual layout shown above is not proffered, so that could change. The developer has outlined an extensive list of proffers, including:
Of note, the developer who is seeking the rezoning would not build the housing. They might build the apartments - but they would be partnering with a builder or builders in the future to build the townhouses and detached homes. A representative of the developer indicated that the following price ranges would be likely for the housing types that are planned for the development:
The Villas described above would be high end attached homes on the highest ridge of the development with eastern and/or western views. You can find links to additional documents related to this proposed development on the City website here. City Staff recommends approval of the rezoning and special use permits required for this development. A public hearing for Quarry Heights will take place at the Planning Commission meeting on Wednesday, October 9 at 6:00 PM. | |
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A Two Story House With One Story Above Grade Is Not The Same As A Two Story House With Both Stories Above Grade |
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 In other words... Ranch With Finished Basement ≠Two Story Colonial With No Basement Certainly, this is sort of a statement of the obvious. The structure of these two houses is different. More specifically... 1000 SF ranch with 1000 SF finished basement ≠2000 SF Colonial with no basement A few thoughts and observations related to some differences in these two types of homes... 1. An appraiser will look at these two homes quite differently... when evaluating the size (SF) of a home they are typically starting by looking only at the above grade square footage. 2. Non main level bedrooms are often seen differently by many prospective buyers. A ranch with one bedroom on the main level and three more in the basement will not be seen in the same way that a two story home with one bedroom on the main level and three more on the upper level is viewed. Technically these are sort of the same... one bedroom on the main level and three bedrooms on a different level... but most buyers don't find these two types of homes to be similar enough from a bedroom perspective. 3. Oftentimes the below grade space will be darker and sometimes damper. Having half or more of the foundation walls of a basement in the ground reduces the number of walls that can have windows, and creates some opportunity for moisture in a basement depending on the age and construction materials of the home. When it comes down to specific value... most buyers will pay more for a home with 2000 SF above grade (and no basement) than they will for a home with 1000 SF above grade and 1000 SF finished in the basement. As such, it is typically best to use structurally similar homes in a market analysis, most particularly where it relates to where the finished living space is located. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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