Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
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Will You Take Your House Off The Market Over The Winter? |
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 In some ways, NO, you should NOT take your house off the market -- because housing inventory levels have plummeted in December. And yet, still, some folks will take their homes off the market for the winter. Our local MLS requires a house to be off the market for 90 days before the "Cumulative Days on Market" statistic resets. So, if you take your house off the market today, you could put it back on the market right around March 5, 2020 and have that statistic reset. During these 90-ish days of being off the market, we will want to talk about price, condition and marketing....
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Housing Inventory Levels Plummet in December |
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 First - a note - each data point above is for the end of the given month. Thus, the 235 homes for sale in November are at the end of November -- or, as the case may be, the very beginning of December. Now, there are a few disclaimers I could make about the above data...
Regardless of the reason or explanation, though, the current inventory levels are SUPER low! Which is terribly frustrating for buyers -- and a great opportunity for any home owner who does need to sell right now. You are not likely to have much competition from other sellers! Stay tuned later in the month when I compile my full monthly report and we'll see if inventory levels perked back up as we made our way further into December. | |
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How Much Are You Willing To Compromise To Live In The Neighborhood Of Your Dreams? |
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 I think it is reasonable to be willing to compromise on some aspects of your dream home in order to live in your dream neighborhood. For example...
But then, you might find that some compromises are just too much...
In your home search, if you are aiming to be in a certain neighborhood (or neighborhoods) you may be faced with this sometimes difficult question - how much will you compromise on your dream house in order to live in your dream neighborhood. It won't necessarily be a fun conversation or an easy decision - but I'm happy to talk it through with you - and we can best do that inside of that home that is pushing you to consider a compromise... | |
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How To Find Multi Family Properties To Purchase In and Around Harrisonburg |
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 Multi Family Properties can be a means to more quickly and simply make a larger investment purchase. Whether it is a duplex, triplex, quad, or a small apartment building, you will often be able to purchase these properties at a lower price per unit, and more quickly increase your total rental income as compared to purchasing one individual property at a time. HOWEVER - there are very few multi-family properties that are offered for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. A few tools for you if you are potentially interested in purchasing a multi-family property in this area. This one has been around for a bit.... Current Multi-Family Listings - bookmark this page on HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com to come back and review current multi-family listings at any time. This is the new one.... Email Alerts for New Multi-Family Listings - sign up to receive an email alert every time a new multi-family property is listed for sale in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County via the HRAR MLS. Enjoy -- and let me know if you have questions about multi-family properties, or real estate investing in general. | |
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I Would Like To Sell But Cannot Find Anything To Buy |
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 Something I am hearing with increasing frequency goes something like this...
A few thoughts and notes as it relates to this increasing common occurrence...
It can be a tough time to be a buyer -- and even more so to be a seller and buyer. I recognize that plenty of folks who want to move may just need to stay in their current home -- but let's take some time to explore that together to see if that is the only path forward. | |
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Detached Homes in the City of Harrisonburg Under $200K Are Harder To Find |
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 It's harder and harder to find a (detached) home in the City of Harrisonburg under $200K. As shown above, there have been fewer and fewer such home sales over the past few years. As a side note -- the 48 such homes that sold thus far in 2019 have had a median days on market of 5 days. So, when these under $200K homes do come on the market they usually go under contract quickly! As of today, there are 11 such properties on the market - but 7 of them are under contract. Explore all 11 of them here. | |
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Will City, County Buy the Denton Building in Downtown Harrisonburg To Expand Courts, Judicial Offices? |
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 Will the City of Harrisonburg and/or Rockingham County be purchasing the Denton Building in downtown Harrisonburg? Maybe? Possibly? Feel free to email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) with any additional information you might have. I've heard about this from a few folks who are plugged in downtown, and there has been some reporting of this possibility in the Daily News Record... "The city and county are looking for more space for courts and judicial offices and have identified the Denton building on Court Square as a possible location." "The Denton building lies on two parcels with three addresses — 50 S. Liberty St., 58 S. Liberty St. and 61 Court Square — with a combined value of nearly $3.9 million, according to the 2019 assessment." "In January, the city and county bought the parking lot and two-story building to the south of the Denton building for $425,000 from CFSMCS LLC, according to Rockingham County real estate records." | |
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Ten Guiding Principles Of What Makes A Neighborhood |
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 The Rockingham County Planning Commission will meet today (Nov 19, 2019) at 6:00 PM in the Rockingham County Administration Center to discuss incorporating the Stone Spring Urban Development Area Plan (pdf) into the Comprehensive Plan. One critical part of this plan is a list of ten guiding principles of what makes a neighborhood, which I have included here...
The plan explores each of these guiding principles on pages 15 to 23 of the plan. Download it and read through these concepts yourself. It's exciting to think about developments designed with these guidelines in mind. | |
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Rockingham County Considers Adopting Stone Spring Urban Development Area Plan Into Comprehensive Plan |
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 The Rockingham County Planning Commission will meet tomorrow (Nov 19, 2019) at 6:00 PM in the Rockingham County Administration Center to discuss incorporating the Stone Spring Urban Development Area Plan (pdf) into the Comprehensive Plan. From the plan... The Stone Spring Urban Development Area Plan (Stone Spring UDA) creates a 20-year vision for the development of new walkable neighborhoods and infrastructure investments within four focus areas for growth. This map (from the plan) shows the four focus areas: Stone Port, Stone Ridge, Boyers Crossing and Crossroads...  Further... The Stone Spring UDA provides a blueprint for neighborhood development based on traditional town patterns, known as Traditional Neighborhood Development (TND). TND is based on the principle that neighborhoods should be walkable, achieved by compact, mixed-use development, with pedestrian-oriented development blocks that are sized for easy walking distance and characterized by an interconnected network of streets that are articulated with trees, on-street parking, and a variety of routes for vehicle traffic while facilitating walking, cycling and transit. The Stone Spring UDA Plan focuses on the physical form and massing of buildings—on scale, block size, and the relationship between building edges and the public realm. Here's an example of a potential neighborhood layout in the Boyers Crossing focus area...  And a conceptual layout for Stone Ridge...  A few screen captures don't do justice to this 106 page plan -- so download the final draft of the plan here and take a look through it. And if you live in or near the Stone Spring UDA - buckle up for even more growth in the area... | |
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Should Sellers Feel Confident That A Contract Will Result In A Sale? |
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 If you're selling your home, and it just went under contract (hooray!) should you be confident that it will make it to closing? Yes and no.... YES - Most contracts result in closed transactions in this market.
So, yes - as a seller, you should feel generally confident that that contract you just signed will result in a closed sale. NO - There are lots of ways in a standard contract that a buyer can end up not buying your house.
So -- yes -- that contract you just signed to sell your house will **probably** result in the sale of your house -- but we should understand that there are several hurdles to clear along the way, and there are ways in which the sale could fall apart. | |
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Home Sales Steady, Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Despite rapidly declining temperatures (15 degrees last night!?) the local housing market is still rather hot! Read on for an overview of the latest market trends in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, or download a PDF of the full report here. But first, check out this new listing at The Glen at Cross Keys, pictured above, by visiting 285CallawayCircle.com. OK, now, diving into some data...  Several things to note above, as we can now look at 10 out of 12 months of 2019...
Now, looking at the detached sales trends vs. attached trends, we see similar but slightly different trends...  Above, you might note that...
Next, let's pause for a moment to evaluate sales in the City vs. the County...  As you'll see above...
Now, for the roller coaster of the month-by-month activity...  As shown above, October home sales in 2019 were certainly stronger than we saw in 2016 and 2017 -- but not as strong as last year. That said, home sales then slowed down quite a bit (!!) last November, so perhaps we'll see a stronger performance this November? I'm guessing we'll see 90 to 100 home sales in November 2019.  How do these monthly home sales stack up towards annual sales? The graph above breaks it down -- and we're moving at the fastest pace this year (1,130 sales in 10 months) that we've seen anytime in recent years. We seem to be on track to eclipse 1300 home sales again in 2019 - just as we did (barely) last year.  We can often get the best sense of long term trends by looking at a rolling 12 months of data, as shown above. Here we see that growth in the median sales price has been relatively slow over the past year (compared to a faster increase last year) and the pace of homes selling has remained relatively stable over the past year.  Looking back a few more years, it is clear that median sales prices (and home values) have been increasing steadily for quite a few years now -- ever since 2011 per this data set. But, the increases per year are smaller (1%, 2%, 2%, 4%, 4%, 3%, 7%, 4%) than during the last real estate boom when we had three years of double digit (17%, 14%, 14%) increases in the median sales price. So, perhaps this increase in home prices is more sustainable than the last time we saw steady increases over time.  Back to temperature and seasonality - even though the annual pace of buyer activity is up, right now contract activity is starting to decline. The strongest months of buyer activity are typically in the Spring and Summer. We have started to see the usual slow down this Fall and will likely see continued declines in monthly contract activity as we move through November, December and January.  Somewhat curiously, despite the seasonality of buyer activity -- the inventory levels have stayed relatively steady for the past year -- or at least the last 10 months. We did not see the usual increase in inventory levels in the Spring and Summer this year -- perhaps because buyers were poised and ready and snapped up the new listings as soon as they hit the market. Thus, we may not see much of a decline in inventory levels over the next few months either.  Ah, yes, the buyers DID snap up the listings quickly! In fact, over the past 12 months, 57% of homes that sold were under contract in less than 30 days -- and the median days on market was only 19 days!  Breaking out of the "house" mold for a moment -- look at lot sales this year It seems we'll likely see a similar number of lots of less than an acre selling this year (around 80) but the median sales price has increased quite a bit over any recent past year!?  If you're looking for a sign of relative health in the local housing market -- look no further than the declining foreclosure rate in this area. As shown above, we have seen fewer (and fewer) foreclosures over the past eight years as more and more homes have sold.  And finally, if you're buying now or soon, you'll likely still be locking in a fixed mortgage interest rate below 4%. The average mortgage rate has risen a bit over the past two months, but we're still seeing absurdly low mortgage interest rates for folks buying principal residences. OK -- that's it for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the Winter -- let's chat sooner than later about timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. May we find warmer days ahead! :-) | |
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Planning Commission Recommends Approval of 172 Unit Senior Housing Community (Crownpoint Independent Living) on Apple Valley Road |
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 A developer out of Williamsburg has requested that an 8.38 acre parcel on Apple Valley Road be rezoned to allow for the development of a senior living facility. The community would include 130 group home units (with 1-2 bedrooms) and 42 attached dwellings (duplexes or rowhouses) potentially as shown in the layout above. The group home units will be built as (2) three-story residential structures with a community building between them. Potential community amenities will include outdoor common areas, recreational activities, a dog area, a greenhouse, an electric vehicle charging station and more. The community will likely offer services such as housekeeping, a coffee shop, a hair/nail salon, fitness classes, etc. The living units in this development will be rented, not purchased, per the developer (Andy Piplico) and there will not be age restrictions but the average age of residents will likely be 84 years old. The Planning Commission voted 5-0 to recommend that this development be approved, and the Board of Supervisors will make that final decision in the near future. Read more about this proposed development: | |
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A Late Thanksgiving Helps Home Sellers This November |
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 If you are planning to list your house for sale in November, it may feel like you have an extra week of buyer activity this year -- since Thanksgiving won't be celebrated all the way until November 28th this year! This is the latest possible date (the 28th) on which Thanksgiving can occur -- as the holiday has been celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November ever since Congress passed a law stating as much way back in 1941. As a side note -- from 1863 until 1938 the holiday was celebrated on the *last* Thursday of November - and then back in 1939 and 1940 your Thanksgiving celebration might have taken place on one of two different weeks depending on your state of residence!?! Read more about the history of Thanksgiving scheduling here. Oh, and if you're getting ready to list your house for sale this November or December, let's get some photos ASAP to get it on the market and in front of buyers before Thanksgiving (there is still time) instead of afterwards. | |
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Home Buyers In The City of Harrisonburg Have Fewer and Fewer and Fewer Choices |
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 As shown above, inventory levels keep on dropping in the City of Harrisonburg!?! Today, you'd have only 50 options for a home in Harrisonburg, compared to...
And, to make matters worse, the 50 houses on the market today are not likely all houses of interest to you, as they include...
And even beyond price, these homes are not all the same...
Anyhow -- the moral of the story is that you may need to be prepared to be patient as a home buyer in the City of Harrisonburg. There aren't many options of houses for sale at any given time -- and when compelling houses do come on the market, they often go under contract QUICKLY! | |
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Sometimes, It Just Takes Finding The Right Price Point To Open The Floodgates |
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 Sometimes, but not always, this can happen when pricing and listing and marketing a home...
It doesn't always happen, but sometimes you cross a threshold where all of a sudden many buyers see your house as being a much better value proposition -- and they are all of a sudden worried that another buyer might jump on the opportunity faster than they will. We only really know where this threshold is once we are there. Sometimes a buyer doesn't even want to negotiate much on price once you hit that threshold because they feel the price is fair, they sense there may be other strong buyer interest, and they don't want to miss out. So - if your home is not getting the buyer activity you'd like to see (or that you need to see in order to believe an offer might materialize) sometimes it will just take a few increment price adjustments until you hit that price point where the floodgates open and the showings being, and (hopefully!) an offer will come in as well! | |
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Internet Tools Are Great But Cannot Replace Being In A Home |
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 No, Amazon can't deliver you a new home tomorrow -- even if you are a member of Amazon Prime. We are so used to being able to find everything, do everything, learn everything, buy everything, online. And when it comes to real estate, it is easier to understand houses for sale from behind your computer (or more likely - phone) screen. You can now devour plentiful information about a home for sale to include:
BUT -- nothing replaces actually being in a home. It's then that you get a true sense of how big rooms are, how spaces are connected, what updates you might want to make to the house, how well the space and flow will work for your family and lifestyle, how the topography of the lot affects your use of outdoor space, how close the neighbors feel, how distracting nearby sights or sounds might be, and so much more. These intangibles can't truly be understood until you are inside a home. SO -- if you are starting the home buying process, or deep into it, don't think you should just search, explore and learn online until you find your absolute 100% dream house. It will be more productive for us if we start going to see some houses inside, in person, in real life! | |
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Inventory Levels Seem Unable To Drop Below 250 |
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 It's been the story for quite a few years now (at least 10 years, it seems) that inventory levels are dropping -- buyers have fewer and fewer homes from which to choose when they are looking to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here are how many homes have been on the market in October for the past 10 years...
So, it's certainly a more challenging time to be a buyer than anytime in the past 10 years -- but inventory levels seem to now be bottoming out around 275. Here's what the past six months have looked like...
So, over the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if we never dipped lower than 250 and we never rose above 300. Given these limited inventory levels, it is more important than ever that buyers in today's market are ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Buyers can make it a bit easier on themselves by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! | |
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All The Areas That Will Pay A Bit Extra In Taxes To Help Manage Stormwater in The Lake Shenandoah Watershed |
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 download a high resolution PDF here In late August, the Rockingham County Board of Supervisors approved the creation of the Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Authority. The authority will work to manage stormwater and mitigate damage from that stormwater throughout the Lake Shenandoah Watershed. Read more via the DNR on 8/29/2019) here. The Authority will potentially spend around $3.2 million to improve the stormwater system by creating new detention facilities and increasing the capacity of ditches and pipes. Property owners in the area shown above will pay some additional taxes that will fund the work of this Stormwater Authority, though the Authority will also pursue grant funding for the needed infrastructure improvements. As shown on the map above, the Stormwater Control Authority will include all or part of the following areas:
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How Many Unrelated People Can Live In A Home In Harrisonburg |
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 It is a common misunderstanding that the zoning classifications can be interpreted as follows...
In fact, it doesn't work that way at all. So, how can we understand the limits of how many unrelated people can live in a property based on the zoning of that property? Below is a table of very helpful data -- tucked within the resource materials for the work session scheduled for tomorrow related to Short Term Rentals in the City of Harrisonburg. The same data can also be found, organized slightly differently, on the City's website here.  download a PDF that you can actually read, here This table outlines how many unrelated people can live in a home (detached home, duplex, townhouse, condo, etc.) in Harrisonburg based on the zoning of that property. Of note, there can be exceptions to these generalities -- based on a special use permit for a property, or if a property use is "grandfathered in" based on that use existing since before zoning regulations limited the use. But this is a very helpful starting point for understanding how many unrelated people can live in a property in the City based on the zoning of that property. | |
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83% of Harrisonburg Short Term Rental Special Use Permit Applications Approved |
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 The Planning Commission for the City of Harrisonburg will hold a work session on October 29, 2019 at 2:00 PM to discuss Short Term Rental regulations. You'll find the agenda here and one of the attachments (this one) provides a concise overview of the status of each property for which a property owner has applied for a special use permit to use their property as a Short Term Rental. There are a few properties still working their way through the process, but of the 33 properties listed on the summary sheet, 29 have had an outcome of some sort and I illustrated those outcomes on the graph above. A few observations...
It will be interesting to see if there are any adjustments to the regulations or process for applying and reviewing those applications. Stay tuned -- or attend the work session! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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