Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
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Annual Home Sales In A Larger (Longer) Context |
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 The graph above shows how many home sales took place each year for the past 20 years. The only incomplete data point is 2020 which only includes January through November home sales. When December home sales are in the books, we're likely to have seen 1400+ home sales this year. A few observations...
As for next year -- I'll hold off on my predictions for a bit longer... | |
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Harrisonburg Area Home Sales Up 10%, Prices Up 11% Thus Far In 2020 |
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 Happy Tuesday, friends! They say it might snow tomorrow. I'm currently seeing predictions of 6 to 9 inches. What is your best guess? We haven't had a sizable snowstorm in the Harrisonburg area in several years - maybe it's finally showing up? Or maybe it will just be rain - you know - 2020 and all... ;-) But enough about whether the snow will be piling up tomorrow -- home sales have been piling up BIG TIME this year and the last few months have been surprisingly busier than you'd expect at this time of year! Read on for details, or download a PDF of my full market report here. But first, not to be overlooked, the home shown above is the last home to be built at Heritage Estates. If you know someone who wants to live in this active adult community in Harrisonburg, this will be the last opportunity for a new home in the neighborhood. OK, now, an overview of the basics...  Check out the crazy numbers above...
So, did I mention the fall home sale season has been a bit atypical?  Yes, as you can see by the red line above, fall 2020 has been crazy! Usually, home sales fall during the fall. They gently decline into the slower winter season. This year, not so much. Home sales shot up in September and have stayed at unpredictably high levels through the end of November! And when you pile all of those strong months of sales on top of each other...  As you can see above, the number of home sales we've seen (1,351) in the first 11 months of this year is more than we have seen in any of the past three years... during the entire year! So, once we pile December on top, we're likely to be looking at well over 1,400 home sales this year -- and maybe as many as 1,450? But we didn't get to these high levels of home sales without some dips...  The orange line above shows the number of home sales in a 12 month period -- each month for the past year+ and it reveals the roller coaster that we've been on for the past year. Just before COVID started impacting our lives, the annual pace of home sales was starting to sneak up above its previous normal trendline. But then, COVID, and the annual pace of home sales dipped down quite a bit and it was uncertain where we'd go next. But by the time we got to August it was evident that the home sales market was roaring back and it is now well above where we might have expected it to be a year ago! And all that interest in buying homes has caused prices to rise...  Over the past five years we have seen the median sales price of detached homes rise anywhere from 2% to 7% per year and average out at about 5% per year. But this year -- how does 10% sound? I suppose it sounds good if you are a seller and it sounds pretty rotten if you are a buyer who has not yet found a home to buy! A year ago the median sales price of detached homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) was $240,000. Today... $265,000! Looking forward -- will we keep seeing lots of home sales?  It seems likely. During the past three months 377 buyers (and sellers) have signed contracts to buy (and sell) homes. Looking back a year ago to the same three months we only see 297 contracts signed. Thus, we should probably expect a relatively high number of closed home sales in December and January. Maybe things won't slow down as much as usual this winter. Hard to believe! And as 2020 goes, houses are getting about as hard to find as toilet paper...  Indeed, there have been fewer and fewer homes for sale at any given time this year as compared to last. Rampant buyer activity has caused many (most?) new listings to be snatched up as quickly as they have been listed for sale. This has driven inventory levels lower than I thought we'd ever see. A bit under a year ago we dropped below 200 homes for sale which was a shocker... but now, fewer than 150 homes for sale!? It's tough to be a buyer right now in many locations and price ranges! But if you do find a house to buy... you'll love those low interest rates...  Mortgage interest rates have been steadily declining for the past 18+ months now, and are solidly below 3%! It's hard to believe, but most buyers are locking in interest rates at 2 point something -- fixed for 30 years! These lower rates have allowed mortgage payments to stay relatively steady over the past year despite increases in home prices.
OK, folks, that's all for now. I have to go see if I can find my snow shovel just in case it really does snow tomorrow. I hope you have a wonderful remainder of the 2020, and I look forward to connecting with you again in 2021! Reach out anytime by calling/texting me at 540-578-0102 or by dropping me an email at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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City and County Neighborhoods With The Highest Price Per Square Foot |
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 I'll start with what is probably a predictable sorting of neighborhoods based on sales prices over the past three years...  But now, a new sorting of the neighborhoods based on sold price per square foot reveals a very different order...  Does the second list surprise you? It might if you were thinking that the neighborhoods with the highest price per square foot would be revealing the most expensive neighborhoods for homes. As it turns out, the price per square foot in neighborhoods with expensive homes ends up being lower than in some neighborhoods with medium sized homes. Explore these neighborhoods further by visiting HarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com. | |
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More Details On Preston Lake Apartments, Upscale Apartments Just Outside Harrisonburg |
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 If you are in the market for a recently built, reasonably nice, non-student apartment in or near Harrisonburg, the only current option at scale (aside from much smaller developments) is The Reserve at Stoneport -- located catty-corner from the Sentara RMH Medical Center. Prices at The Reserve at Stoneport currently seem to fall in these ranges...
But now there is another option in town -- or there will be soon. Preston Lake Apartments are currently under construction on Stone Spring Road at its intersection with East Market Street. These apartments are owned by and built by a different entity than the developer/builder of Preston Lake the adjacent residential neighborhood where new homes are being built. Prices at Preston Lake Apartments currently seem to fall into these ranges...
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142 Unit Multi-Family Development, Two41, Proposed At Intersection Of Blue Ridge Drive, Country Club Road |
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 Bluestone Land, the development entity behind The Colonnade (in downtown Harrisonburg) and Preston Lake Apartments (currently under construction) is proposing to build 142 apartments at the intersection of Blue Ridge Drive and Country Club Court. The proposed site plan is shown above, and here's a rendering of what one of the apartment buildings would look like...  The current owner of the property (alongside the proposed developer) is requesting that the property be rezoned from R-1 to R-5 and is asking for a special use permit to allow for more than 12 units per apartment building. Here are some further details of this proposed community...
You can read more about this here: | |
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600 Bed Student Housing Development In Rockingham County Sold For $39.8 Million |
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 As detailed in the Daily News Record ("National Firm Buys Aspen Heights, Plans Rebrand") the 600 bed student housing development on Port Republic Road in Rockingham County - just outside the City of Harrisonburg - has been sold to Campus Apartments, a large student housing company that owns over $2 billion dollars of assets, near more than 50 colleges and universities in 15 states! Wow! Looking at the raw numbers...
Aspen Heights is located here. Read more in the Daily News Record article. | |
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Are You The Parent Of A JMU Student Looking To Buy A House For Your Son Or Daughter To Live In With Friends? |
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 With some regularity, I'll hear from parents of JMU students who are interested in buying a house in Harrisonburg, near the JMU campus, with the intent of having their son or daughter live in the house with friends. Not a bad idea, right? Instead of paying rent for several years, you (and the friends of your son or daughter) can be paying off the mortgage on your newly acquired house! But before you sign a contract to purchase a house, keep this in mind... Most (but not all) single family homes (as opposed to duplexes or townhomes) in Harrisonburg are zoned R-1 or R-2. This limits occupancy of the property to no more than to unrelated people - with one exception which I will mention below. So -- before you go buy a five bedroom house with the idea that Johnny and his four best buds can live there -- you should definitely check the zoning of the property. If the house is zoned R-1 or R-2, it will just be able to be Johnny and his best friend living at the house. But wait -- what if you put Johnny on the deed to the house, making him one of the owners of the house -- would this change anything? Why, yes, it would! While Johnny would not then be able to invite all four of his friends back into the fold, he would be able to have his two best friends living there at the house instead of just one friend. Stated more simply... An R-1 or R-2 property can only be occupied by two unrelated people if the owner is not living there, but it can be occupied by the owner plus two unrelated people if the owner is living there! You'll find all the details here. If you're a JMU parent, looking to buy a house off campus, I'm happy to help with the process -- but don't let Johnny get too many friends excited about the idea until you have reviewed the information above. A few final notes... 1. There are some properties in Harrisonburg that have been in non-conforming use (many unrelated people living in them) since before these current zoning regulations were put in place. Those properties are "grandfathered in" and can be continued to be rented in that (non-conforming) manner until/unless there is a 24 month interruption in the non-conforming use. So, technically, you could buy a house for Johnny and his four friends -- but we'd have to find a property that is grandfathered into that non-conforming use and those properties don't come on the market very often. 2. There are likely some property owners out there, now, who are renting their properties to more unrelated people than are legally allowed to live there. Before you jump to "well if they can do it, then I should also be able to do it" I will encourage you to only consider making an investment purchase that allows you to rent the house in a manner that is legal according to local zoning ordinances. It's not worth the risk to try to skirt the zoning regulations. | |
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New Condos Available At Founders Way In Harrisonburg, VA |
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 New condominiums are under construction at Founders Way! These brand new condos are located just minutes from downtown Harrisonburg and offer low maintenance living at its best, in close proximity to dining, shopping, the JMU campus and more! Buyers can make selections for cabinets, granite countertops, flooring, paint color and more! Condos at Founders Way feature an open floor plan a large primary bedroom suite and a second bedroom or office with walk in closet and attached bathroom, plus a covered porch! Enjoy high-speed internet access and cable service! View more photos of these new condos here. Find out more about Founders Way here. (I am the listing agent for these condos.) | |
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Is All Showing Feedback Really About Price? |
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 Is All Showing Feedback Really About Price? Often, yes. My house is needs many cosmetic updates, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the need for cosmetic updates. My house is next to the railroad tracks, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the railroad tracks. My house has an unbelievably steep driveway, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the steep driveway. Guess what --- unless you're going to flatten the driveway, move the railroad tracks (or the house), or make all of the cosmetic updates -- it really probably is an issue of price! If you're getting consistent feedback about your house that is unrelated to price, in almost all cases, you need to adjust the price to accommodate for that specific issue. If the price is lower then buyers might actually buy despite the specific issue that they were complaining about. | |
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Last Home To Be Built In Heritage Estates Currently Under Construction! |
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 Heritage Estates is an active adult community located in Harrisonburg, Virginia boasting homes with superb French Country architecture with flowing interior floor plans that are wonderful for entertaining. Owners at Heritage Estates enjoy spectacular views of the Blue Ridge Mountains, the golf course immediately beside Heritage Estates, the community swimming pool, and a maintenance-free lifestyle. And now -- the very last home to be built at Heritage Estates is under construction! The home is under roof and the exterior is complete. The builder (my client... this is my listing) is getting ready to start finishing the interior of the home. If you, or someone you know, was hoping to live at Heritage Estates, this is the last chance to buy a brand new home. | |
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Will You Take Your House Off The Market This Winter? |
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 In some ways, NO, you should NOT take your house off the market -- because inventory levels are very low. And yet, still, some sellers will still -- quite reasonably -- take their homes off the market for the winter. Our local MLS requires a house to be off the market for 90 days before the "Cumulative Days on Market" statistic resets. So, if you take your house off the market tomorrow, you could put it back on the market during the first week of March and have that statistic reset. During these 90-ish days of being off the market, we will want to talk about price, condition and marketing....
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Area Wide Sale On Houses On Day After Thanksgiving! |
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 No, not really. There is not an area wide sale on houses on the day after Thanksgiving. It's a joke. I mean... other than the fact that yes, most houses for sale today will probably still be for sale on the day after Thanksgiving. ;-) But... Any home seller who has had their home on the market for the past few months without it going contract...
Anyhow - if you're ready to buy a home, this Friday might be a great time to make an offer on a house that has been on the market for a bit and has not yet sold! Happy Thanksgiving, friends! :-) | |
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As A Home Seller, You Are Always Optimizing For Something |
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 What are you optimizing for?
As a home seller, you are always optimizing for something. PRICE - Maybe you are willing to wait as long as it takes to get the price that you want for your house. Even if it takes months longer than you had hoped and even if it means that you aren't able to continue on with other life transitions that you had planned, at least you go the price you wanted. TIME - Maybe it's important to you that you wrap up your home sale (have the house under contract) within a few weeks or within a month. If so, you might be willing to price your home a bit lower to maximize the possibility that you accomplish your timing goals. CONVENIENCE - Maybe your strategy for when you list your home and your pricing strategy all revolve around making it a seamless transition to your next home. You're willing to be flexible on timing and on pricing so long as it lets you accomplish your goals of buying that perfect next home. When your home is on the market, you're always optimizing for something. Be sure you know what you are optimizing for and make sure that is your intention! | |
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Increasing Home Sales Despite Declining Inventory Levels |
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 Fewer homes on the market means that fewer homes are selling, right? Nope, not necessarily. As you can see above, there have been an average of 38% fewer homes on the market (at any given time) this year as compared to two years ago. But there have been 7% more home sales this year than two years ago. So what gives? Basically, these metrics can and often do change independently of each other. Number of homes for sale (inventory) is not the same as number of homes listed for sale. If 100 homes are listed for sale at the start of a month and 5,000 homes are listed for sale during that month, and all 5,000 of them go under contract by the end of that month, then there are still only 100 homes for sale -- but there were 5,000 contracts signed that month! So, if buyers are buying faster than sellers are deciding to put their homes on the market, then this dynamic (sales up, inventory down) can take place. Just because you see that inventory levels are dropping - don't assume that home sales are also declining -- home sales (and prices) are actually on the rise, despite fewer and fewer homes being on the market at any given time. | |
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Homes Usually Go Under Contract More Slowly In The Winter, But Maybe Not This Year? |
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 Usually, things slow down in the winter. Winter of 2017/18...
Winter of 2018/19...
Winter of 2019/20...
As you can see, things usually slow down during the winter in the sense that the days on market (how long it takes for a new listing to go under contract) is higher in those winter months. This year, however, I suspect we're going to see something quite different. I think we will see houses to continue to go under contract quickly as we move through November and December. So, if you are hoping to sell in the next six months -- right now might not be as bad of a time to do so as you might think based on historical norms. Two side notes...
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It Is Hard For Home Buyers To Compete If They Have A Small Downpayment Or If They Need Closing Cost Assistance |
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 A few short years ago...
These days...
A few short years ago...
These days...
So, it's not that you can't buy a home with a small down payment or if you need a closing cost credit -- but it will be a lot harder to do so these days, largely because of other competing buyers who have a larger down payment and/or who do not need a closing cost credit. | |
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Make A Decision About A Home Warranty Purchase After Your Home Inspection |
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 What is a Home Warranty?
A home warranty one-year service agreement that covers the repair or replacement of many major home system components and appliances that typically break down over time due to normal wear and tear. One company that many of my clients have used for a Home Warranty is American Home Shield. They offer several plan options:
If you're buying a brand new home, you likely don't need a Home Warranty. If you're buying a home where the heat pump, appliances and water heater have just been replaced, you probably don't need a Home Warranty. If you're buying anything else, you might want to consider a home warranty. Check out pricing and coverage here. | |
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How High Will You Go When Competing With Other Buyers? |
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 Over the past month I have represented multiple buyers who have made offers on homes where they were competing against anywhere from three to seven other buyers. Given that our market is so high competitive in many locations and price ranges, buyers find themselves facing all sorts of difficulty questions...
The list could go on and on. It's a tough time to be a buyer right now and just because you find a house that you like, and you want to buy, and that you are qualified to buy, and even if you have a lender letter, and even if you see the house on Day 1 and make an offer on Day 1 -- you still might not get the house. There might be someone else who is willing to pay more than you or take more risks than you are, or who has a larger down payment than you have. So, be ready to act fast, and make a strong offer - and be ready to carefully calculate how high you are willing to go on price - but know that you still might not get the house despite your best efforts. | |
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Overbrook Subdivision in McGaheysville, Virginia Slated to Expand To A Total of 230 Homes |
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 Overbrook, a single family and duplex community in McGaheysville, Virginia is expanding. As currently developed - as built homes or platted lots - the neighborhood includes...
The developer is in the process of getting County approval for an additional 125 homes -- some of which will be single family homes and some of which will be duplexes. This will bring the total size of the development to 230 homes. Here's the proposed site plan - where you'll note that the dark green areas are common areas (including a walking trail) and the light green areas are where homes will be built.  | |
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Median Sales Price Increases $23,000. Monthly Payment Increases $3. Wait! What?? |
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 Yes, you read that correctly. Over the past year...
Oh, the magic and mystery of declining mortgage interest rates! :-) Over the past year we have seen a rather rapid increase in home prices. The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County one year ago was $217,000. Today, it is $240,000. This is an 11% increase in the median sales price over the course of 12 months which is a much faster than normal increase. And yet, if a buyer finances 80% of the purchase price, their mortgage payment will only be $3 per month higher than it would have been a year ago. Wait! What?? That's all thanks to ridiculously low mortgage interest rates! One year ago the average mortgage interest rate was 3.78%. Today's average mortgage interest rate is 2.81% -- which is 26% lower than the rate from a year ago. So, if you're surprised that a buyer today is willing and able to pay 11% more for a house than they were a year ago -- don't be! Most buyers are financing their home purchases, and thanks to today's low mortgage interest rates, they are still paying basically the same amount as a monthly payment now as they would have been a year ago. Put slightly differently... A year ago, Fred was working in a job that paid him $X per year, which allowed him to afford a mortgage payment of around $1,000 per month, which allowed him to purchase a median priced home of $217,000. Today, Fred's cousin, Ted, is working in a job that pays him $X per year (the same amount as Fred), which allows him to afford a mortgage payment of around $1,000 per month, which allows him to purchase a median priced home of $240,000. Pretty wild. Now, if (when!) those mortgage interest rates start rising -- then the cost of housing will start to increase -- though that's what we generally expect it to do. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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