Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.
If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!
|Newer Posts||Older Posts|
It wasn't normal to have 1,600+ home sales per year --- but we did, at the peak of the housing boom.
It wasn't normal to have < 800 home sales per year --- but we did, at the valley of the housing bust.
Now, the question is --- what is a normal or typical amount of homes to be sold in any given year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? 900? 1000? 1100? 1200?
Last year, our market raced up to an annual sales pace of over 1,000 home sales per year. It seemed that we would continue to see this annual pace of home sales accelerate --- perhaps to 1100/year or 1200/year. Thus far in 2014, however, we have not seen than 1000+ trend continue.
Perhaps we're looking around 950 home sales this year, and then back up to 1000+ territory in 2015?
OK -- this is as clearly as I can put it....
It could have been the new trajectory --- and perhaps 2014 home sales will catch back up later this year, after having been slowed down by wintry weather early in 2014.
Or perhaps, 2013 was an abnormality --- and the pace of home sales in 2014 will not catch up to the fast pace of 2013.
Only time will tell....
Featured Property: 2944 Crystal Spring Lane, Harrisonburg, VA
I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and things are starting to look slightly rosier, but it's still not as wonderful of a year of sales as we saw in 2013.
Click here to read the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights....
The good news, as shown above, is that there were 99 home sales in May --- which is ever so slightly more (+2) than last May. Even with this slight improvement in the month of May, 12.6% fewer homes have sold thus far in 2014 as compared to 2013. After a strong market recovery last year, many (most?) people assumed we would see further market recovery this year --- both in the pace and price of sales.
One theory is that the abnormally cold and snowy winter created a slower start to the year. We'll have to wait to see if that theory holds water as we move through the rest of the year. If that were to be true, I believe we would have seen more of an improvement in May, but I'm willing to patiently (?) wait to see what June home sales will show.
Another theory is that a backlog of buyers (many more than normal) bought in 2013, and that the pace of home sales in 2014 is returning to the trend we were otherwise seeing in 2011 - 2012.
Also in the "pretty exciting, but don't order the party bagel from Mr. J's yet" category -- the 99 home sales we saw in May was actually the strongest month of May sales in recent history. That's good news, even if it does beat the old record of 97 by only two home sales.
There is good and bad news when examining the pace at which contracts are being signed this year....
And if those words didn't jump off the page at you and give you hope and enthusiasm for the weekend ahead, then take look through the full report that offers lots of colorful graphs that are bound to inform and entertain. You can read it online here or download the PDF here.
Also, as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102.
May 2014 nearly set a new record for the number of contracts signed in a single month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above, there were 136 contracts --- just shy of last year's 143 contracts in May 2013. Hopefully, this will help the somewhat slow start to the 2014 housing market.
As shown above, year-to-date home sales are down this year (233) as compared to last year (284).
Many suspect that the long, cold winter may have made the first few months of the year slower than they would have otherwise been. Per that theory, we should see a huge rebound in contracts (now / recently / soon) to help the 2014 market catch back up with where the 2013 market was last year.
Let's see what we're seeing thus far....
April contract numbers were strong in 2014, but not as strong as in 2013....
Now, let's look at the first 15 days of May, this year versus last year....
As you can see, over the past 45 days buyers have been buying at the same pace (actually a bit slower) than last year. Thus far we're not seeing a rebound of higher buying numbers than last year at this time.
So, the big question -- we've seen an 18% decline in YTD sales so far in 2014 -- will that remain at -18% for the rest of the year? Will 2014 pull even for no gain or loss? Somewhere in between? Theories, predictions and guesses are welcome!
The graph above examines the trend in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham over the past seven years. After three years of declining inventory levels (2011, 2012, 2013) we are now finally seeing inventory levels starting to increase again.
This likely means....
Featured Property: 1103 Dices Spring Road, Weyers Cave, VA
I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and thus far, 2014 is not as exciting of a year as 2013 was for our local housing market.
Click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights....
2013 was an encouraging year in the local housing market. After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we finally saw a (strong!) rebound in the home sales activity. Now, however, with four months of 2014 behind us, we are facing a very different trend when comparing year over year trends -- the pace of home sales has declined 18% year-over-year. This could be the result of the icy winter weather in 2014... but that is becoming a less likely theory as we move through Spring. The next theory I'll throw out is that 2013 was a rebound year, with higher than normal sales volume, and 2014 is is reverting back to the slow upward trend that began in 2011.
Even though it's not highlighted in yellow above, we should also note that prices seem to be improving year-to-date, with a 3% increase in median sales price.
Going back to the rebound theory -- the blue line in this graph shows the month-by-month sales experienced during 2013. As is quickly evident, last year's home sales were head and shoulders above any other recent year of home sales. Home sales this year (red) certainly look rather unexciting in comparison to last year (2013) though when taken within the context of 2012 (green) we see that there has been an improvement when looking at a 24 month differential. Again, this may indicate that 2013 was a year of our marketing bouncing back and burning through old inventory, but that the 2013 sales pace was not sustainable moving forward.
Now, here are your teasers to encourage you to read the rest of this data filled report....
There's much, much more. Read it online (here) or download the PDF (here) and as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102.
Per NerdWallet, Harrisonburg is Virginia's fastest growing City.
Set in the Blue Ridge Mountains in northwestern Virginia, Harrisonburg's 32.1% income growth, plus growth in population and jobs sent it to the top of our list. The area has a farming tradition, but science and academics are now leading industries in town. DBT Data operates a cyber integration center in Harrisonburg and SRI International, a bioscience research corporation, recently expanded its offices in town. The area is also home to James Madison University, which has an enrollment of more than 18,000 students per year. City planners project that Harrisonburg will claim more than 60,000 residents by 2030. In preparation for new residents and future growth, the city is following its Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance plan to make downtown Harrisonburg a destination for the region and an engine of economic growth. The whole city's pitching in- volunteers have logged more than 85,000 volunteer hours so far on the project.Per the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Chamber of Commerce, we are also one of the top 20 emerging metro areas.
Above you can see the changes in inventory levels over the past year in four price ranges....
Under $200K (-1%)
$200K - $300K (-15%)
$300K - $400K (+50%)
Over $400K (+13%)
Learn plenty more about our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.
Featured Property: 310 Victoria Drive, Bridgewater, VA 22812
I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF. Below are a few highlights you might be interested to know about....
As shown above, home sales in March were the lowest that we have seen over the past several years. This is undoubtedly due to the absurdly low temperatures this winter PLUS the many snowfalls PLUS the many days that schools were closed. Now that the warmer weather is upon us we will hopefully see an increase in home sales come April and May.
We also saw a smaller number (91) of buyers sign contracts during March as compared to last March (114) --- though an increase from March 2012 (87). Let's hope that the warm Spring days of April will lead to many (many!) buyers going to see houses and sign contracts.
A significant part of whether buyers will write offers is related to whether they are finding compelling houses on the market -- and we're finally starting to see increases in inventory levels. These new listings will hopefully rejuvenate buyer interest and get them off of the sidelines and into the buying market.
Amidst a few market indicators that aren't as positive as they could be, here is one bright spot --- sales prices of attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condominiums) are going UP!
Want to know more? Get all the juicy details in the full report. Read it online or download the PDF.
As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102.
Buyers across the country have spoken -- the graph above shows the information sources that are used "frequently" during the home search process.
I will be working hard to find you the HOME OF YOUR DREAMS -- but statistics show (see above) that two-thirds of buyers have to compromise in some way on the home that they purchase.
Of note, neighborhood and location don't seem to be areas where most buyers are willing to compromise.
As shown above, after some slow years in 2011 and 2012, the over $500K housing market bounced back in 2013.
The over $600K market had an even more dramatic recovery in 2013.
Search for $500K+ homes at HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com.
The population of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is increasing.
If we take the average of 2000 and 2001 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "usual" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,150 home sales -- which is still a decent amount of growth beyond the number of home sales (1,013) seen in 2013.
And here is the data behind the graph....
Will they keep going down?
Lock in now....or soon!
Don't forget to watch the State of the Union tonight at 9PM.
And let's take this opportunity to see how our local real estate market is doing as compared to where we were one year ago.
Stay tuned this evening for an update on the state of our nation, but our local housing market seems to be much improved over the past year.
HarrisonburgTownhouses.com has been updated with sales data from 2013-Q4, and many townhouse communities are (finally) starting to see median prices increase again.
So, are you wondering about property values in your townhouse community? Or considering purchasing an investment property? Whatever the reason for your interest in townhouses in Harrisonburg, you will likely find the information you need at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, including (for each townhouse community):
The townhouse communities featured on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com include:
First, a disclaimer, I am not a statistician --- though I did take a fantastic stats class in grad school with Kevin Apple.
That said, it sure would seem to me that there is a direct correlation between the pace of home sales, and the negotiability of home prices.
Take a look at the graph above and let me know (online or offline) if you agree. Actual statisticians --- feel free to chime in. :)
Current active listing inventory (~529 properties for sale) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is at the lowest point since at least 2008 when I started tracking this data.
The high point was in June 2010 when there were 1,015 homes for sale.
Learn more about our local real estate market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com.
|Newer Posts||Older Posts|
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Receive notifications of new content on this blog, via e-mail or RSS reader.
Mobile Real Estate Apps
Housing Market Report
The Glen at Cross Keys
The Townes at Bluestone
Cottages @ Stone Spring
Harrisonburg New Homes
Analysis of Assessments
Bank Owned Properties
Potential Short Sales
Recent Price Changes
Secret MRIS Listings
Secret GAAR Listing