After several years in a row of relatively similar sized classes of first year students at JMU, the first year headcount will jump up a bit this coming year, as shown above. 



Despite this jump in first year students, the overall growth trajectory will stay relatively similar to what JMU has experienced over the past several years.

These increases in enrollment will (gradually) help the over-supplied student housing market in Harrisonburg.  If you haven't heard, there are many more places for students to live than there are students.  (read up here)

These increases are also (continued) great news for the local economy, as JMU is a major economic engine for the local economy -- as both students and faculty/staff live here, work here, spend here, etc.  This is not, of course, to ignore the significant contributions made to our local economy by Bridgewater College, Eastern Mennonite University and Blue Ridge Community College.

The data for the graphs above is based on JMU's enrollment projections.  "Total On-Campus Headcount" is the number of students who are taking classes on the JMU campus.
 

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Mortgage rates hit all-time low again: 3.83% on 30-year fixed rate.

WSJ: Home prices rise in most of United States.

NAHB: Harrisonburg added to list of improving markets.

Gas prices drop again

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Some observations without knowing much about the budget:

• Income from property taxes would make up 23% of County revenue in the coming year, up from 21% of revenue in the current budget cycle.
• The overall size of the County budget is proposed to decline -- from $310M to $298M.
• The real estate tax rate is proposed to increase by 7%, from $0.60 to $0.64 per $100 of assessed value.  More details here.
  

  

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As per the Daily News Record today, the Finance Committee for Rockingham County has proposed an increase of the real estate tax rate --- from $0.60 per $100 of assessed value up to $0.64 per $100 of assessed value.

Here's how that would impact a few different price ranges of homes....



In many ways, it is actually surprising that we haven't seen an increase in tax rates before now --- many localities across the country have been forced to do so in order to continue to pay for public services. 
  
Click here for the full article from the Daily News Record.
 

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As more (potential) good news for our growing local job market, it looks like CarMax may be opening in Harrisonburg sometime in the near future.

From the record of Harrisonburg Property Transfers last week.....

South Main Ford LLC to CarMax Auto Superstores Inc. a parcel of land on the northwestern side of South Main Street, south of West Mosby Road, $2,900,000.
  
This follows the recent news of Dick's Sporting Goods coming to Harrisonburg.
  
As a point of clarification, the title of this article is not an indication that I am willing to bet $2.9M that CarMax is coming to Harrisonburg.  ;)
 

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(photo above is a store opening in Nashville, not Harrisonburg; source)

In further (potential) good news for the local economic climate, the Daily News Record reports today that Dick's Sporting Goods may be opening up a storefront at the Valley Mall in Harrisonburg as soon as this fall.  Dick's would (potentially) be located in the space that Peebles vacated in 2006.  This follows recent news of an Ashley Furniture store opening in the old Books-A-Million space on East Market Street.

Additional tidbits on this developing story:

• The old Peebles space is 42,000 SF, as compared to a typical Dick's Sporting Goods store of 50,000 SF.
• Dick's is hiring a Golf Professional/Apprentice for the not-yet-confirmed Harrisonburg store.
• Dick's would be the second large retail tenant to land in Harrisonburg since the recession --- following the opening of Best Buy's 33,000 SF space in Harrisonburg Crossing in 2010. 
  

Kudo's to Doug Manners at the Daily News Record for discovering this exciting news for Harrisonburg!
 

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This is one economic indicator that I am happy to see heading downward.  There are still lots of people who are not able to find work, but this trend is headed in a great direction.
  

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In another positive sign for Virginia's economy and thus housing market, there seem to be more people moving into Virgina than out of Virginia.

Of note, Virginia is one of only 9 states where this is the case!

Source: KCM Blog
 

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Looking for a job in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County?  Here are the 50 largest employers....

1. James Madison University
2. The Rockingham Memorial Hospital
3. Rockingham County School Board
4. Cargill Meat Solutions
5. Wal Mart
6. R.R. Donnelley and Sons Company
7. Harrisonburg City Public Schools
8. Great Eastern Resort Management  (Massanutten Resort)
9. Merck & Company, Inc.
10. Aramark Campus LLC  (JMU Dining)
11. Marshall's
12. Fairfield and Sons, LTD  (Rosetta Stone)
13. City of Harrisonburg
14. Perdue Products
15. County of Rockingham
16. Tenneco Automotive Operations
17. Pilgrims Pride Corp
    
18. Va Poultry Growers Coop Inc
19. Eastern Mennonite University
20. Millercoors LLC
21. Stellar Management Grouping
22. Dynamic Aviation Group
23. George's Foods
24. Beam Brothers Trucking
25. Whitewave
26. Virginia Mennonite Retirement
27. Riddleberger Brothers, Inc
28. Sysco Food Services
29. Bridgewater College
30. Food Lion
31. Great Eastern Resort Corporation  (Massanutten Resort)
    
32. Sunnyside Presbyterian Home
33. Ntelos Wireless Dip Inc
34. Bridgewater Home, Inc.
35. Cargill Turkey Production
36. Owens Brockway Plastic Products
37. Tenneco Packaging
38. Warsaw Health Care Center
39. Lowes' Home Centers, Inc.
40. Pleasant View Home for the Handicapped
41. Shenandoah Growers Inc
42. Postal Service
43. Costco
44. McDonald's
45. Tyson Farms
46. Rockingham County Community Services Board
47. Comsonics Inc.
48. Pactiv Corporation
49. Martin's Food Market
50. Massanutten Ski Lodge
    

Source:  Virginia Workforce Connection
   

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If you don't have a job, it's hard to buy a house.  If you lose your job, it's often hard to keep your house.  Thus, it is welcome news for the housing market to see the unemployment rates continuing to drop on the local, state and national levels.  Yet another indicator that we should see a further improved local housing market in 2012.
 

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In very good news for the local housing market, foreclosures are declining in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The graph above shows the number of Trustee Deeds recorded at the courthouse per year for 2008-2010 and the number recorded in the first ten months of 2011.

It is clear that 2011 has marked a sharp turning point in the foreclosure rate in our local area.  While we are not yet back to historically normal rates (70-100 per year), we have turned the corner from the peak of 270 in 2010.
  

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Click here to download my full market report (27 pages, 7 MB, PDF) or read on for highlights....



October was a relatively positive month for the local housing market:

1. Home sales increased 8% in October as compared to last October.
2. Year-to-date home sales increased 3% over 2010 sales levels.
3. Year-to-date median sales prices declined 3% as compared to one year earlier.
4. Average days on market increased by 8%.
   

Despite some negative trends (#3, #4 above) the positive trends (#1, #2 above) are an indication that we are likely in the early stages of recovery for our local housing market.



A strong sign of strength to come in the local housing market, October 2011 was a great month of buying activity, with 84 buyers committing to buy homes in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.  This marks a 65% increase in buyer activity as compared to October 2010!



Trends are very slow to reveal themselves in annualized sales figures (shown above) because they are an indication of 12-month rolling averages.  That said, it seems that it may be a safe bet that home sales and home prices are on the mend when examining the graph above, which has now been showing increases in these long-term indicators for four months.



Some price ranges are recovering more quickly than others.  The graph above shows that the price ranges under $300K have been starting to see increases in sales over the past several months.  This should eventually roll over into the higher price ranges as buyers move up the price spectrum.



For an even more in-depth look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, click the image above to download my full market report (27 pages, 7MB, PDF).

If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. 
 

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Probably not, but there is still some exciting Siri-related news for our local economy....



Known facts....

Siri is a revolutionary personal assistant application on the recently released iPhone 4S.

Apple bought Siri in April 2010.

Siri was developed as a project of SRI International.

SRI International opened a campus in the Shenandoah Valley in 2009.

So....what does it mean?

OK, admittedly, SRI Shenandoah Valley might not develop a component of the next iPhone, but I think the storyline above points out the enormous upside potential of this developing research and technology company right here in Rockingham County.

Per the Shenandoah Valley Partnership, SRI's Center for Advanced Drug Research (CADRE), will focus "on improving the productivity of the pharmaceutical industry, helping the nation respond to bio-threats, and developing life-saving treatments for neglected and orphan diseases."

I think this is rather exciting for our local economy!
 

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Virginia Sets Example for Cash-strapped States

"Gov. Bob McDonnell announced that Virginia ended the fiscal year with a $311 million surplus yesterday. And for the second year in a row, Virginia ends the fiscal year with a revenue surplus, not a revenue shortfall. This is great news for Commonwealth residents, and it puts Virginia sharply in contrast with many other states that have seen revenues fall short of projections year after year."

This is great news for Virginia and for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  A stable economy leads to job growth, leads to a stable housing market.

Read the rest of the story here, where you'll learn how Virginia was able to finish the year with a surplus!
 

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What do you think?  Could real estate be the best buying opportunity of your lifetime? 


  Click on the image above to read this article from Time.
 

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Great news -- the local foreclosure rate is on the decline!

There were 270 recorded trustee deeds in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during 2010.  In the first half of 2011 there were only 105 recorded trustee deeds.

Yet there are some interesting foreclosure sales currently scheduled:

• Portions of Green Springs subdivision
  
• 75 townhome lots next to Beacon Hill Townes
• 162 acres of development land on the south end of Harrisonburg

For currently advertised foreclosure sales, visit HarrisonburgForeclosures.com.

Learn more about short sales, trustee sales and bank owned properties.
 

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The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has declined by 11% over the past year from $180K to $160K.  That's a rather significant decline.  But looking closer, it seems that one reason why it has declined as much as it has is because there are more bank owned properties selling this year as compared to last year.



As you can see above, last year (YTD) REO sales only accounted for 8% of all home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  This year, however, REO sales account for 14% of all home sales.

The median sales price of the non-REO properties this year is $170,056, whereas the median sales price of REO properties this year is only $129,250.

There are certainly other factors that are causing a decline in median sales price, but the proportional increase in bank owned (REO) sales is certainly contributing to the situation.
 

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If the development of Preston Lake had taken place just five years earlier, it might have been a much greater, faster, happier success story. 

Given its timing, however, Preston Lake was developed and constructed at a very slow rate, which recently reached a significant milestone when Wells Fargo foreclosed on the remaining developed lots at Preston Lake.  Why did it happen?  It could have been the decline in the housing market....or the decline in the national economy....or that the developer's bank (Wachovia) went out of business....or many other reasons. 

Regardless of the cause, the development and construction of Preston Lake was much slower than anticipated, and is now in a state of limbo.  Here's a re-cap of where things are at Preston Lake, with a few bits of new information:

Homeowners Association:  The Preston Lake Homeowners Association is still controlled by the developer, which is now effectively Wells Fargo.  For now, however, the on-the-ground association management is being handled by a Harrisonburg-based association management company, and thus far it does seem as if any services to residents will be interrupted, nor will dues increase.

Ownership of the Land:  The undeveloped residential lots all transferred to Wells Fargo (or REDUS VA HOUSING, LLC as it appears at the courthouse).  Read more.

Ownership of the 4 rowhouses:  Most people attending the foreclosure auction were surprised to hear the announcement that morning that separate from the auction of all of the undeveloped lots, the bank would be auctioning off four rowhouses at various states of completion.  Since potential bidders were not prepared to consider purchasing a rowhouse, all four of these properties were bought back by Wells Fargo.  Further details follow....

• Lot 9C:  This rowhouse is completely constructed, and was actually used as a temporary residence for a couple that then later bought a rowhouse at Preston Lake.  Wells Fargo contracted (at the trustee sale) to buy this rowhouse for $270,600 and it transferred to them as of late February.  Presumably, this property will soon be listed for sale with Wells Fargo as the seller.
   
  
• Lot 10B:  This rowhouse was framed, and the exterior shell was complete, but neither the insulation nor the rough mechanicals were installed.  Wells Fargo contracted (at the trustee sale) to buy this rowhouse for $39,960, however another party (Southern Classic Inc) later contracted to buy it instead, and closed on the purchase a few weeks ago (March 4th, 2011).
   
  
• Lot 11C: This rowhouse was complete through drywall, but had a variety of trimwork, flooring, and other finishing work yet to be completed.  Wells Fargo contracted  (at the trustee sale) to buy this rowhouse for $157,760, however another party (Southern Classic Inc) later contracted to buy it instead, and closed on the purchase a few weeks ago (March 4th, 2011).
   
  
• Lot 12C:  This rowhouse was complete through drywall, and rough mechanicals, and insulation, but the entire remainder of the townhouse was yet to be constructed.  Wells Fargo contracted (at the trustee sale) to buy this rowhouse for $79,080, however another party (Southern Classic Inc) later contracted to buy it instead, and closed on the purchase a few weeks ago (March 4th, 2011).

Southern Classic, Inc:  The company that purchased the three yet-to-be-finished rowhouses seems to be a company based out of Crozet/Charlottesville.  Presumably, Southern Classic will be finishing the rowhouses and offering them for sale.  Southern Classics is an Earthcraft certified builder, and is involved in developing several smaller communities including:

• Foxchase Landing (Charlottesville)
• Fair Hill Estates (Crozet)

Current Listings:  Three re-sale properties are currently on the market.  Click here for details.
  

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Despite many negative indicators in our local housing market, there may be hope for better news in the coming months.  Click here to view a PDF of my most recent market report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market, or read on for several excerpts....



As can be seen above, sales have dropped significantly as compared to a year ago -- both in February alone (28% decline) and in year-to-date figures (21% decline).  Furthermore, we continue to see declines in both median sales prices (3% decline) and average sales prices (2%).  As would be expected, this has lead to an increase (21%) in the time it takes to sell a house. 



Above you will note that January home sales (39) were roughly equivalent to previous years' January sales.  February 2011 home sales however (38) were significantly lower than February sales in 2008, 2009 and 2010.  Thus far, the trend line for 2011 home sales is headed in the wrong direction -- if you're one of those people who likes to see positive improvement.!



The pace of home sales has declined steadily for three years (orange line above), as has the median sales price in this area (green line above).  Of note, the median sales price has actually stabilized and increased somewhat over the past six months.



Above (in red and blue, instead of silver) is the silver lining of this month's housing market report.  Buyers were out in full force in February 2011 --- with a full 69 properties going under contract.  This marks a  44% increase over February 2010, which should lead to strong sales figures in March and April.



There's plenty more news in my monthly housing market report -- click on the image above (or here) to download and view the full PDF. 

As always, if you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
 

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