A Strong Start to 2026 Is Giving Way to a Slower Finish
Scott P. Rogers
Happy Thursday morning to you!
I hope your week is going well and that you are enjoying the crisp morning temperatures often followed by pleasantly warm afternoons. This is my favorite time of the year... and only partially because I celebrate my birthday in the fall and because my favorite meal of the year (Thanksgiving, of course) is in the fall. ;-)
As noted above, I did successfully turn another year older towards the end of October, and it was a delightful celebration with family and friends... with the terrific surprise of my daughter and my niece surprising me by coming home from college for the weekend! You'd almost think it was a big milestone, multiple of 10, type of birthday. It wasn't. Not yet.
But enough about me, let's talk about you for a few minutes...
1. You can enter a drawing to win a gift card each month just by reading my market report. This month, enter to win a gift card for a membership to the Explore More Discovery Museum in downtown Harrisonburg! Explore More is a fantastic place for kids to learn, play, interact and grow. It has grown up quite a bit over the years since the days when Luke and Emily were enjoying the museum. If you have kiddos, you should definitely check it out. And feel free to click here to enter to win a free year's membership for your family or to gift to someone else.
2. You can learn more about our local real estate market, and the buying and selling process, by subscribing to my daily newsletter here. Each weekday I send out an email with my thoughts, insights and commentary on buying and selling homes in Harrisonburg, the latest new developments, and more.
3. You might be thinking about buying or selling a home in the near future. If so, feel free to reach out if you'd like to chat about how we can work together to do so. You can reach me most easily by phone or text at 540-578-0102, or by email.
And now... let's take a look at some of the latest trends in our local, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, real estate market. First up... the overall market... detached plus attached, new homes plus existing homes...
October was... a slow month of home sales... with only 101 home sales compared to last October, for a 20% decline in the number of homes selling. And yet - we're still seeing 1% more home sales over the past 12 months as compared to the prior 12 months. So, is it slow lately? Yes. Is it slower than last year, not quite... yet.
Meanwhile, prices stayed... flat. The median sales price has seen less than a 1% change over the past year... though it is also interesting to consider home value changes in the context of inflation.
The third chart above shows median days on market, which, interestingly - shows that homes are going under contract somewhat faster this year than last... though that is not what many sellers would tell you about their experience in the 2026 market.
Let's look at only the detached homes for a moment...
We were seeing a 1% increase in home sales in the overall market when looking at the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months... but not so much in the detached home portion of the market.
We have seen 5% fewer detached homes selling in the past 12 months compared to the 12 months prior... though the median sales price of these detached homes has increased by 3% during that time.
Looking at the most recent six months, we're also seeing a 6% decline in the number of homes that are selling, but an even larger 5% increase in their median sales prices.
So what about attached homes, then?
Over the past six months we have seen 304 attached home sales... which is just about the exact same as the 305 seen a year prior. That said, over the past 12 months we have seen 10% more attached home sales than in the prior 12 months.
Meanwhile, prices of these attached homes is down 1% over the past six months and the past 12 months.
So... pausing for a moment, here's what we're seeing thus far...
- Overall home sales up 1%, but prices are flat
- Detached home sales down 5%, but prices up 3%
- Attached home sales up 10% but prices down 1%
Let's take a look at one last data set... just existing homes, excluding new home sales...
Here you'll note that we're seeing about the same number of existing home sales over the past 12 months... but a more recent trend of a 5% decline over the past six months.
But the prices of these existing homes keeps on increasing... with a 3% increase over the past 12 months and a more recent 4% increase over the past six months.
So... while fewer existing homes are selling, they're selling at higher prices than a year ago.
Now, let's switch to some of the graphs that illustrate the latest trends in our local housing market...
During first seven months of 2026 we were seeing more home sales each month compared to 2025... but not anymore. The past three months (Aug, Sep, Oct) we have seen considerably fewer homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to the same month last year. We're likely to see that trend continue through November and December.
And yet... 2026 is still slightly ahead of 2025's pace...
Within 10 months in the books, we're still seeing slightly more home sales this year than last. Someone commented to me yesterday that home sales in another market in Virginia are 30% lower than they were a year ago... that is not what we are experiencing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Yes, the past few months have been slower (than they were last year) but the overall pace of sales in 2026 is on track with (slightly ahead of) last year.
This next graph looks at a rolling 12 months of home sales data...
This is where the very, very flat home prices are most evident. The median sales price (top line in the graph above) has been hovering between $344K and $348K for the past 12 months straight.
Meanwhile, the number of homes selling in a year's time started rising through the first half of 2026 and then falling again over the past three months.
Let's put those flat prices in a somewhat longer historical context...
After quite a few years of strong, aggressive growth in median sales prices... we are seeing very little change in the median sales price over the past two years... which has been at least partially a result of smaller numbers of buyers buying over the past several years.
This next graph illustrates an interesting before/after time marker...
The graph above illustrates how many contracts are signed per month... and you'll notice a sharp change between April and May. From January through April of 2026 we were seeing more contracts signed each month of the year as compared to 2025. But then... starting in May... we have seen fewer contracts signed each month as compared to in 2025.
What changed between April and May of this year? :-) Regular readers of my market report already know or have a guess. If you're not sure, keep reading.
Before we get to the answer to the question above... here's what happens to pending sales (the number of homes under contract at any given time) when we have six months of fewer buyers signing contracts to buy homes...
Fewer contracts signed leads to... fewer pending sales. A year ago there were 260 homes under contract and headed towards closing. Today, there are only 174 homes under contract. This is a clear indication that we are almost certainly going to see a slower final two months of the year when it comes to closed sales.
And... clearly... if fewer contracts are being signed, it might also affect inventory levels...
Over the past four months we have seen inventory levels rise from 186 to 242 homes for sale. This is a sharp increase, though... it brings us to just about the exact same number of homes for sale as we saw at this exact time last year. So... inventory is rising, but within a recent context, this is a relatively normal number of homes for sale... and it's even more normal when looking in a longer historical context.
And finally, what lead to that shift in April or May of this year?
During the first few months of this year home buyers were financing their mortgages with interest rates at or close to 6%. Then, between February and September mortgage interest rates slowly (quickly?) rose to 7% and then beyond. This shift in mortgage rates is one of the main reasons why home sales have slowed as we have progressed through 2026.
Finally, to wrap things up for this month, let's move to... so what... so what does all of this mean if you're thinking about buying a home or selling a home?
If you're buying a home...
- You'll likely have more options of what to buy.
- You'll likely (but not certainly) have less competition from other buyers.
- Make sure you're comfortable with your monthly payment.
- If you need a place to live, and you're going to buy a home, don't wait for rates to drop - it might be a long wait.
- Feel free to make an offer below list price - the worst that can happen is a seller will counter back, or say no.
- Don't assume you will be able to pay less than list price, or less than the nearby recent sale, just because the market is somewhat slower.
If you're selling a home...
- Prepare your home well for the market.
- Price your home realistically based on recent comparable sales.
- Don't expect your home to go under contract immediately.
- Develop your pricing strategy in the context of your timing goals.
- Respond kindly to buyers who make an offer even if the terms aren't favorable - maybe you can find some common ground.
- Keep an eye on competing listings and whether they go under contract.
And for everyone... remember that the local real estate market is performing differently for different homes. Demand is stronger in some price ranges, in some locations, for some property types... so we can't rely solely on overall market indicators... we need to dig into the data related to homes in your neighborhood and in other similar neighborhoods.
Until next month... I hope you have a delightful balance of November. Enjoy your Thanksgiving... both the food, and the people with whom you are hopefully able to spend some time relaxing, connecting and laughing.
If you need anything real estate related, or have questions about the market, your home, or your plans, feel free to reach out. You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here.
