Happy Monday Morning, friends!

I hope you had a wonderful weekend and are looking forward to the week ahead.  Technically, it's still summer (by the calendar, and the temperatures) but fall is just around the corner... and I'm looking forward to it!

The past two weekends have been fun with the return of some home JMU football games!

The photo above is actually from the first home game... and the skies look remarkably blue compared to the very stormy weather leading up to the game.  In the second game of the season, I never had a chance to take a photo as I had to keep popping back up to cheer for yet another score from JMU on their way to a record-breaking final tally of 87-3.  What a game, and what a fun start to the season!  Go Dukes!

In other news, I'm still trying to stay young by participating in some fun local road races put on by VA Momentum.  

This was the JMU 9/11 5K, honoring student heroes.  Quite a few JMU students run in this race, and so I ended up crossing the finish line just after a college student and gave him a fist bump as we both tried to catch our breath.  I told him "great race" and he responded with something long the lines of... "you too, and wow, you should be really proud."  It took me a few minutes (post-race fatigue and all) to realize he was calling me old.  ;-)  Ah well, it was fun nonetheless, and it was great to have my nephew running in this race with me as well!

One other momentous life update... Emily headed off for her first year of college... with Shaena and I sort of being empty-nesters, though the dogs keep us from getting too lonely.

Having shared way more than usual, I'll now quickly jump into a few usual monthly highlights before hitting the latest data on our local housing market...

Now, onto the latest in our local real estate market, starting with how many home sales are taking place these days...

August was (as the headline suggests) slower than usual... with a 14% decline in the number of homes that are selling.  Later on, we'll get to contract activity, where we'll also see a decline.

Though, as noted above, we have still seen more home sales over the past 12 months than we did in the prior 12 months.  So, the longer-term trend is still positive (more home sales) but we have been seeing a slow down of late.

Meanwhile, prices are staying relatively level...

As shown above, while we're seeing a 1% increase in the August vs. August median sales price... and virtually no change in the six months vs. the same timeframe a year ago... we are seeing a 1% decline in the median sales price when comparing the past 12 months ($345K) to the 12 months before that ($349K) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Keep in mind, however, this is all homes (detached and attached, new and resale) and I'll get into some sub-markets shortly.

Finally, when looking at the overall market, how quickly are homes selling?

Bold and exciting headline -- time on market increase 14%.  Real news -- the median days on market increased from 7 days to 8 days over the past year.  So, yes, homes are selling a bit more slowly, but not drastically so.

Now, breaking things down a bit, here's a look at just detached homes, ignoring townhomes, duplexes and condos...

When looking just at detached homes, we see that over the past year there have been slightly fewer (-1%) sales of such homes, and the median sales price has risen slightly (+2%) from $390K to $399K.  So, a somewhat different story than in the overall market.  When looking just at detached homes, prices are rising, slightly.

Another helpful metric to watch is only resale (existing) homes...

The chart above excludes new homes... and can provide a helpful perspective on our resale marketplace for homes.  Here you'll note that there has actually been a modest (+6%) increase in the number of existing homes that are selling, and here is that same small increase (+2%) in the median sales price of existing homes, from $350,000 to $357,500.

So, while the overall market (detached+attached, existing+new) is showing a slight decline (-1%) in median sales prices, the detached and existing segments of the market are showing a slight (+2%) increase in prices.

Here, then, is a visual on monthly home sales activity...

You'll note (above) that every month this year between January and July showed more home sales than last year... until August.  After that seven month streak, there were only 115 home sales in August, as compared to 133 last year.  Stay tuned for what we'll see in September and October.

And yet, despite a slow August...

Indeed, we are currently on track to see the most home sales in a year that we have seen for the past three years.  But... maybe a slower August and September will take the wind out of the sails of the 2026 market?  Just a few more graphs and we'll get to contract activity to try to predict that answer.

First, the overall trajectory of our market, focusing on the median sales price of detached homes...

Between 2019 and 2024 (a span of five years) the median sales price of detached homes increased 62%.  Wow!  And over the past two years it has only increased a total of 3%.  So, we're definitely seeing a different trajectory in price changes over time right now, but thus far, it's still moving (slowly) in an upward direction.

And now... contract activity...

It should come as no surprise that there we saw low numbers of August home sales... and we should probably expect to see similarly low numbers of September home sales.  Over the past four months we have seen 438 contracts signed... as compared to 524 contracts signed in the same timeframe last year.  So, contract activity has been quite a bit slower over the past few months, which is now showing itself in slower months of sales activity.

And thus, unsurprisingly....

If fewer buyers contract to buy homes, it leaves the possibility that inventory levels will rise... and they have.  We have seen mostly rising inventory levels over the past six months.  Technically, this is not surprising compared to last year (blue line above) and the average of the past four years (grey line above) and our current inventory levels are actually still lower than they were a year ago.

Finally, one clue to what might be causing at least part of this slow down in the local market...

Mortgage interest rates have been steadily rising over the past six months and are now even higher (6.76%) than shown above where they were 6.66% at the end of August.  Higher mortgage interest rates = higher monthly mortgage payments = slightly less buyer ability and/or willingness to buy a home.  

So, what does all of this mean for you?

Big Picture - We're seeing home sales activity slow a bit, and inventory rise a bit, but prices are still rising, slowly, in most segments of the market.

Home Buyers - You might have slightly more choices (higher inventory) but double check your potential mortgage payment to make sure you are comfortable with how it fits into your budget.  Plenty of homes are still going under contract quickly, but some are sitting around for a bit, giving you time to decide whether to make an offer.

Home Sellers - Price your home very, very realistically, and be ready to move forward with a buyer who makes an offer with reasonable terms.

Thinking About It - If you are considering a home purchase, or are thinking about selling your home, let me know if you'd like to chat about the market and the process.   You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here.

Until next month, I hope you enjoy your week ahead and the eventual cooling temperatures as we head towards what is certain to be a delightful fall season in the Shenandoah Valley!