Brought to you by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, 540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Brought to you by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, 540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Friday, July 24, 2026
Where is our local housing market headed over the next 10 years? It's a great question, but not one that is easy to answer.
That said, here are five significant factors that will likely do more to shape our market over the next ten years than anything else...
1. Rezonings - approved or denied
Every time the City of Harrisonburg or Rockingham County votes on a significant rezoning, it's worth paying attention. Approved rezonings open the door to new housing supply... sometimes a lot of it. Denied rezonings keep that land locked up under its current use, which keeps supply tighter than it might otherwise be. Either way, these decisions set the stage for what gets built years down the road. Recent proposed rezonings of note have included...
That said, here are five significant factors that will likely do more to shape our market over the next ten years than anything else...
1. Rezonings - approved or denied
Every time the City of Harrisonburg or Rockingham County votes on a significant rezoning, it's worth paying attention. Approved rezonings open the door to new housing supply... sometimes a lot of it. Denied rezonings keep that land locked up under its current use, which keeps supply tighter than it might otherwise be. Either way, these decisions set the stage for what gets built years down the road. Recent proposed rezonings of note have included...
Massanutten Resort Expansion (1880 units, approved)
Quarry Heights (953 units, approved)
The Walk (739 units, denied)
Weidig Property (425 units, approved)
Bluestone Town Center (415 units, approved)
Granite Farm (242 units, approved)
The Lindsey/Link (180 units, TBD)
Weston Park (128 units, approved).
2. Whether development actually happens
Sometimes we forget... a rezoning isn't a guarantee that construction will begin. Plenty of properties get approved for development and then just... sit there. Land costs, construction costs, interest rates, market conditions, all of it factors into whether a developer actually breaks ground. So it's not enough to watch what gets approved. We have to watch what actually gets built. Ask anyone in community development in the City or County and they'll tell you that we have seen many (many!) housing developments proposed and approved over the past decade (+) that have yet to begin.
3. Employment
Right now, some of our largest local employers are already anchors... JMU, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Public Schools, Bridgewater College, and healthcare and manufacturing companies that have been here for decades. But newer announcements also matter... such as when last Fall Merck announced a $3 billion investment in a new pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Elkton, expected to bring 500 new jobs to Rockingham County over time. And this spring, the Virginia Poultry Growers Cooperative announced a $113.9 million expansion, bringing another 146 jobs to the county. Neither of those show up in our housing market overnight... jobs like this get filled gradually, over months and years. But when you add several hundred new positions across a couple of major employers, some portion of those employees are going to need a place to live here.
4. JMU enrollment
JMU is one of the biggest economic engines in this area, and its enrollment numbers ripple through our housing market in a real way. More students generally means more demand for rentals, more demand for housing near campus, and more spillover into the broader market as families and staff relocate here too. If enrollment grows, expect that pressure to grow with it. If it flattens or dips, that pressure eases. Recent updates to JMU's strategic plan indicate that student enrollment might increase from about 23,000 to 30,000 within the next 10 years.
5. New student housing supply
This one connects directly to the last point. JMU hopes to build an additional 10,000 beds of on campus student housing within the next 10 years with a goal of having 60% of students living on campus. This would potentially create vacancies in off campus housing developments currently inhabited by college students - which might then cause some of those apartments or communities to move more towards workforce housing.
None of these factors work in isolation. They're all tied together... zoning decisions shape what can be built, development activity determines what actually gets built, and JMU's enrollment and housing needs shape how much of that gets absorbed by students versus everyone else.
If we keep an eye on these five things, we'll have a pretty good read on where our market is headed.
2. Whether development actually happens
Sometimes we forget... a rezoning isn't a guarantee that construction will begin. Plenty of properties get approved for development and then just... sit there. Land costs, construction costs, interest rates, market conditions, all of it factors into whether a developer actually breaks ground. So it's not enough to watch what gets approved. We have to watch what actually gets built. Ask anyone in community development in the City or County and they'll tell you that we have seen many (many!) housing developments proposed and approved over the past decade (+) that have yet to begin.
3. Employment
Right now, some of our largest local employers are already anchors... JMU, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Public Schools, Bridgewater College, and healthcare and manufacturing companies that have been here for decades. But newer announcements also matter... such as when last Fall Merck announced a $3 billion investment in a new pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Elkton, expected to bring 500 new jobs to Rockingham County over time. And this spring, the Virginia Poultry Growers Cooperative announced a $113.9 million expansion, bringing another 146 jobs to the county. Neither of those show up in our housing market overnight... jobs like this get filled gradually, over months and years. But when you add several hundred new positions across a couple of major employers, some portion of those employees are going to need a place to live here.
4. JMU enrollment
JMU is one of the biggest economic engines in this area, and its enrollment numbers ripple through our housing market in a real way. More students generally means more demand for rentals, more demand for housing near campus, and more spillover into the broader market as families and staff relocate here too. If enrollment grows, expect that pressure to grow with it. If it flattens or dips, that pressure eases. Recent updates to JMU's strategic plan indicate that student enrollment might increase from about 23,000 to 30,000 within the next 10 years.
5. New student housing supply
This one connects directly to the last point. JMU hopes to build an additional 10,000 beds of on campus student housing within the next 10 years with a goal of having 60% of students living on campus. This would potentially create vacancies in off campus housing developments currently inhabited by college students - which might then cause some of those apartments or communities to move more towards workforce housing.
None of these factors work in isolation. They're all tied together... zoning decisions shape what can be built, development activity determines what actually gets built, and JMU's enrollment and housing needs shape how much of that gets absorbed by students versus everyone else.
If we keep an eye on these five things, we'll have a pretty good read on where our market is headed.
