Happy Thursday Morning!

If you've been watching the Harrisonburg market lately, you already know -- things are starting to move quickly.  New listings keep popping up, and buyers are ready and waiting to go see them... and in some cases, make offers quickly. I'll walk you through the latest trends in a moment, but first, three quick items to mention...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  After four years of these giveaways, you might note that I'll start to cycle back around to some past crowd favorites.  This month that place is Magpie... one of my favorite spots for breakfast or brunch in Harrisonburg. Enter here for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Magpie.

Five days a week, I send out a short email with something worth knowing about our local market -- a trend I'm noticing, a thought on buying or selling, something I hope you will find useful. It takes about a minute to read. Recent topics have included...

Want to stay in the loop between monthly reports? Subscribe to my daily email newsletter -- short, weekday notes on our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.

And finally... if you're thinking about buying or selling this Spring, I'd love to help. Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.  

Now... on to the data.

The chart above tells an interesting story... home sales are picking up, with the annual pace up about 4% from a year ago. But prices? Essentially flat over the past 12 months -- no meaningful increase, but no decline either. The one notable shift is how long homes are taking to sell. The median days on market has moved from 6 days to 9 days... a 50% increase, even if 9 days still feels pretty quick.

Interestingly, when we look at detached homes alone (ignoring townhomes, duplexes and condos) we find a slightly different story...

Here's where it gets interesting. While overall home sales are up 4%, detached home sales are actually down 6% over the past year. And despite that slowdown in sales, prices haven't followed -- the median sales price for detached homes is up 2%. Less activity, but still some upward price pressure.

Another interesting segment of the market to monitor is only resale homes... ignoring all of the new construction home sales...

Resale homes -- detached and attached combined -- are showing some encouraging signs. Sales are up 7% over the past year, and the median sales price has nudged up 3%. That's meaningful... because when you combine that with the 2% price increase we're seeing in detached homes specifically, it starts to suggest that prices aren't actually flat. They're probably still trending slightly upward. The market-wide number looks flat, but I think that's being pulled down by new construction in the mix. Existing homes tell a different story.

Moving on to some visuals, here's a look at monthly home sales activity...

February was an outlier. March? Much more normal. The 86 sales we saw last month were right in line with expectations -- just slightly ahead of the 82 from March a year ago. April is shaping up to be a busier month, with around 110 sales likely on the way.

Let's see how this year (thus far) stacks up to prior years...

Through the first three months of 2026, we're sitting at 281 home sales -- a stronger start than 2023 or 2025, though a step behind 2024's pace. Normal-ish, in other words. But Spring is just getting started... and that's when our market really gets going. We'll need to check back in a few months before deciding what kind of year 2026 is shaping up to be.

Looking for a visual of the overall market?

Keep in mind, again, that the graph above is looking at all home sales (existing + new) and all home types (detached + attached) and here is where we see a modest increase in the number of homes that are selling, but no change in sales prices.  This, combined with the data presented earlier, continues to point to no change or a very small change in home values over the past year.

Let's put the current flatness of prices in the context of the recent past...

The graph above tells a pretty striking story. Detached home prices climbed 62% over just five years... and then, starting in 2024, things went almost completely flat. A year and a half of very little movement in either direction. That's a dramatic shift from what we saw before. I'll keep watching -- and I'll let you know if prices start meaningfully rising again. We're not there yet.

Looking ahead, though, how about the pace of contracts being signed?

I expected March to be busy. I didn't expect 146 contracts. That's a big jump from the 110 signed last March... which tells me we're likely in for a strong month or two of closed sales as those contracts make their way to the closing table.

With all of those contracts signed, what is happening to inventory levels?

For the first time this year, inventory levels in March actually came in lower than the same month a year ago. That's likely a direct result of all those contracts being signed -- buyers absorbed a lot of listings last month. Whether that continues is the interesting question. Inventory typically climbs as we move into Spring and Summer... but if buyers stay this eager, new listings may not sit around long enough to pile up.

And what about how quickly homes are going under contract?

Homes are taking a bit longer to sell than they were six months or a year ago... and the graph above makes that trend pretty clear. The median days on market has been creeping steadily upward for about nine months now. The interesting wrinkle? Two years ago, days on market peaked right around this time of year before trending back down through Spring and Summer. Maybe the same thing happens in 2026. We'll see.

That's a wrap on this month's market update... but if you want to dig deeper, there are plenty more charts and graphs waiting for you over here.

Finally, some big picture takeaways for buyers and sellers...

1. Be ready to move quickly.  Contracts are up 33% over last March -- this market is active. When you find the right home, hesitating might cause you to lose out on the opportunity to buy that home.  But keep in mind that homes (overall) are sitting a few days longer than they were, which means you may have a bit more time to think.

2. Don't assume prices are flat for every home. The headline number says prices are unchanged... but detached homes and resale homes are both showing modest price increases. Home prices in your favorite neighborhood or school district are likely still nudging upward over time.

3. Watch the resale market closely. New construction is part of what's making the overall market look softer than it is. Resale homes are selling quickly and at higher prices. If you're focused on existing homes, you should expect serious competition.

For Sellers...

1. Price carefully. The days of pricing high and waiting for a dozen buyers to make offers in a day are fading. Homes are taking slightly longer to sell now than they were a year ago. A well-priced home still moves. An overpriced one will likely sit on the market.

2. Is Spring your moment? Contract activity just jumped significantly in March -- buyers are out and motivated right now. If you've been thinking about selling, this may be the window you've been waiting for.

3. Steady doesn't necessarily mean stalled. Prices aren't climbing the way they did from 2019 to 2024 -- that 62% run in five years is over, for now. But prices are not dropping either. If you are selling in 2026 you are likely selling in a stable market with steady buyer demand. 

Ready to talk? Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just exploring the idea... I'm happy to chat. Reach out anytime.

You can reach me by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here.

Have a wonderful balance of your week, and if you didn't file your taxes yet, this is a friendly reminder that you are now one day late.  ;-)