Happy Friday, Friends!

What a wild week of weather this has been... yesterday (Thursday) the temperature started at 70 degrees at 1AM and fell to 30 degrees by late morning and snowflakes were flying.  Today, we'll be bouncing back up to 60 degrees.  I hope you have been able to keep up with the changing temperatures and stay relatively healthy!

A few weeks ago, Luke and I traveled to Florida for a few days (leaving in the evening, enjoying a beautiful sunset at take off) for the International Builder Show.

Along with helping people like you sell homes and buy homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... I also help market and sell new construction homes.  Luke and I enjoyed learning about a lot of new products, techniques and trends in the new home building world.  It was a fun and very informative trip!  Let me know if you have any questions on new homes in our market!

Before we get to the latest trends in our local housing market...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Mr. J's Bagels & Deli - a great choice for breakfast or lunch.  My go-to bagel order is an egg bagel, toasted, with veggie cream cheese.  What about you?  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card to Mr. J's.

Next up... my monthly invitation to sign up for my daily email newsletter that I send out each weekday with a quick note related to our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.  Recent stories have included...

Stay informed and learn more about our local real estate market and the buying and selling process by subscribing to my daily email newsletter in addition to receiving my monthly market update.  

Finally, before we get to the most recent market data, if you're thinking you might buy a home or sell your home this Spring... I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.  

Now, then, on to the latest data and trends for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market...

A few things to note here...

[1]  We saw quite the uptick in home sale this February... with a 32% increase over last February... and when looking at the past six months, we've seen a 7% increase in home sales.  So... more buyers are buying homes in recent months.

[2]  Over the past six months, the median sales price has been 2% lower than the same time a year prior... and over the past 12 months, the median sales price has been 1% lower than the prior year.  Does this mean prices are declining?  Maybe, but maybe not.  Read on for several other data points that indicate prices might not actually be declining.

[3]  It is certainly taking longer to sell a home (get it under contract) these days as the median "days on market" has risen from six days to 12 days over the past year.  You'll see this in a visual form later in this report.

Here's a look at the surprisingly active month of February home sales...

February 2026 was about as busy (or busier) than a normal month of March!  Perhaps it was because of a slightly slower than normal January (the weather wasn't so great) but whatever the reason... there were quite a few more home sales this February than any recent February.  Stay tuned for contract numbers that will give us a preview of what to expect in March.

OK, here's where we get to whether sales prices are actually falling.  The data table presented earlier showed a 2% decline in the median sales price over the past year, but the next two graphs show the same data, broken down between detached homes and attached homes.

First... take note of the rising median sales price of detached homes...

And now, take note of the rising median sales price of attached homes...

So...

All Home (detached + attached) = falling median sales price

Detached Homes = rising median sales price

Attached Homes = rising median sales price

How can it be?!?

Basically, I believe it's a change in the mix of detached vs. attached homes that are selling.  Last year, 62% of home sales were detached homes.  This year, only 50% of home sales are detached homes.

Thus, with more attached homes selling this year (compared to detached homes) the overall (detached + attached) median sales price is declining slightly while the median sales price of detached homes is rising and attached homes is rising.

OK, that was a lot.  I might try to illustrate that a bit more clearly in a future daily newsletter.  

Suffice it to say, even though the market wide median sales price is declining slightly, I don't know that home prices are actually declining.

Do you agree?  Do you disagree?  Are you confused?  Drop me a line to let me know of your thoughts or questions.

Back to more graphs...

Home sales jumped up in February... and... contracts did as well.  Last February only 76 contracts were signed, while 94 were signed this February.  That put this February more on par with the average (97) over the past four years.  Thus, it seems likely that we'll see a strong month of closed sales in March.

What about inventory levels... they've been elevated for a while...

As shown in the yellow band above, inventory levels were higher last year (blue line) than typical over the past four years (grey line) but that might be shifting.  Current inventory levels (157 homes for sale) is pretty close to where we were a year ago and the average of the past four years.  It will be interesting to see if inventory levels rise further as we move into the thick of the Spring market.

As mentioned earlier, it is taking longer for homes to sell these days...

The change might not seem dramatic (median of 6 to median of 12) but it does indicate that it is taking longer for homes to sell now than it was a year ago.  It doesn't seem like that this trend will reverse itself anytime soon, though perhaps it will start to level out at some point.

The good news for buyers... lower mortgage interest rates...

A year ago, you'd be buying with a 6.76% mortgage interest rate... today... around 5.98%.  I'm optimistic (or hopeful) that rates will stay below 6% for most of the rest of 2026, though I don't know that we'll see them drop as far as... say... 5.5%.

Interested in even more market data to pore over?  You'll find plenty of additional charts and graphs over here if you want to read further.

Until next month...

1.  More options are emerging.  Inventory is similar to last year and may grow as the spring market unfolds.

2.  Homes are still selling quickly.  Median days on market doubled from 6 to 12 days, but well-priced homes still move fast.

3.  Mortgage rates are slightly better.  Rates around 6 percent are lower than a year ago, helping affordability.

1.  Buyers are active.  February home sales jumped 32 percent compared to last year.

2.  Prices appear stable overall.  Detached and attached home prices are still trending upward.

3.  Patience may be required.  Homes are taking a bit longer to go under contract than they did a year ago.

Have a wonderful weekend, and Happy (almost) Saint Patrick's Day!