Happy Thursday afternoon!

It's been a busy day, with two beautiful new listings (an upscale duplex at The Glen at Cross Keys, plus a five bedroom brick home in Barrington) hitting the market, so my usual morning blast with my monthly report is now an afternoon blast.

First, a few fun updates (football, food, family - ordered chronologically, not by priority) before getting to the real estate market analysis...

First, who went to the JMU Sunbelt Championship game!?  What a fun time, cheering on the Dukes to victory!

As you know by now, JMU won the game and are the Sunbelt Champions, and we all stormed the field to celebrate!  OK, well, I didn't -- but many did...

Next up, JMU plays Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on Saturday, December 20 at 7:00 PM.  Go Dukes!!!

2.  Food (and family)

Thanksgiving is one of my favorite days (and meals) of the year.  It's wonderful to gather with family, relax, catch up on life, perhaps play some games, and eat SO many delicious foods!  

What is missing from my plate that was on your Thanksgiving plate?  

And don't say "vegetables" - can't you see someone put a single token green bean on my plate for me?

We ventured out to pick out and cut down our Christmas tree on the day after Thanksgiving, as per our family tradition... this year being accompanied by Luke's puppy with a seasonally appropriate name... Holly.  

That's a bit about the fun I've been up to for the past few weeks -- what about you?  

I hope your Thanksgiving was also relaxing and fulfilling and that you were able to spend time with family and friends.

And now... on to the real estate data... oh wait, not quite, another list of three...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a pair of tickets to the Steel Wheels Winter Roots Concert to take place at JMU's Wilson Hall on Saturday, January 26 featuring the Steel Wheels and The Lone Bellow.  Enter here for a chance to win a pair of tickets.

Finally, on to the latest data, trends and insights in our local housing market.  

First up, all residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

This year, thus far (through the end of November) we have seen 5% fewer home sales than last year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... a decline from 1,292 home sales down to 1,230 home sales.  That said, over the past six months (June through November) we have seen almost the same number of sales this year (746) as last year (743).

Prices, meanwhile, prices have stayed relatively stable over the past year...with a median sales price of $346,015 a year ago... and $345,730 today.

Now, let's see how those metrics differ for only detached homes...

Over the past year we have seen a larger decline (11% instead of 5%) in the number of detached homes selling... and their sales prices have also remained relatively stable with a median sales price this year of $390,000 compared to $389,900 last year.  Of note, this 2024 and 2025 median sales price for detached homes is quite a bit higher than in 2023 when it was $350,250.

Meanwhile, how about those attached homes...

We have actually seen an increase in attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) over the past year... with 460 home sales this year (+11%) compared to only 423 last year.  The median sales price of attached homes has also increased by 3% over the past year, from $305K to $315K.

What about if we look only in the City of Harrisonburg?

We have seen 5% fewer home sales in the City in 2025 (same as for the overall market) but the median sales price of City homes has increased by 3% over the past year... from $295K to $305K.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

Just as in the City, and in the overall market, we have seen 5% fewer home sales in Rockingham County in 2025... but the median sales price has increased by about 1%, from $353K to $355K.

Dividing the market up one more time (new homes vs. resale) let's see what we find...

New homes have been a bit slower this year than last... with a 13% decline in the number of homes that are selling... though 2025 new home sales levels are still well above where we were in 2023.  Median sales prices, however, are down 3% for new homes -- though that can be significantly affected by the types of new homes that are being built, and the prices of those homes.

And what about the existing (resale) homes?

We have seen only a slight (2%) decline in the number of resale (existing) homes that have sold in 2025 compared to 2024... and the median sales price of those resale homes has increased 3% from $340K to $350K.  Stepping back a bit further, the median price of existing homes has increased from $310K to $350K over the past year years.

Now, let's start to try to see some overall trends by looking at some graphs of market activity for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

First off, there were well fewer closings in November than we might have otherwise expected.  Admittedly, the 136 closings last November was likely a bit of an anomaly, but this November's 96 closings was also well below the average of 110 closings for November when looking at 2021 through 2024 data.  Looking ahead, we are have somewhere around 100 (or 96?) closings in December.

Here's a graph that shows the overall trends in the market over the past year...

Median sales prices have stayed relatively stable/flat over the past year amidst a general downward trend in the number of homes that are selling.  As you'll see later in the report, inventory has risen and interest rates have fallen... so perhaps we will eventually see the number of homes selling start to increase again.

Zooming out a bit, here are those same trends in a longer context...

The lack of change in median sales price over the past year follow seven years of steady gains... with five of those years showing close to a 10% gain per year.  

The decline in the number of homes selling in 2025 is largely a part of a four year overall slow down, though we're basically just getting back to where we were before Covid.

To get a glimpse of where we will go next, let's look at contract activity...

November contract activity was about as predictable as it could possibly be -- with 96 contracts signed, compared to 91 last year.  

It is also interesting to note on the graph above that the October 2024 spike in contracts (138) is likely the cause of the November 2025 spike in home sales.

And how about those inventory levels?

Inventory levels have been trending down over the past few months, since peaking in July, though we don't currently seem likely to return to the sub 150 levels seen in December of last year.

Slightly higher inventory levels are helpful for buyers as they have slightly more choices when entering the market to buy.

The overall increase in inventory levels might also be the cause of the slightly higher "days on market" lately...

A year ago, the median "days on market" was six days...and we're now up to 9 days.  That's not a drastic change, but it does signal that it's taking a bit longer for homes to go under contract these days. 

Finally, how about those mortgage interest rates?

Mortgage interest rates have been slowly trending downwards over the past two years.  It has now been over three years with interest rates over 6%... and current rates are lower than all but three months out of the past three years.  

First, if you are thinking about buying a home soon...

More options + slightly slower pace. Inventory is higher than last year and homes are taking a bit longer to go under contract (median 9 days vs. 6), giving you a bit more breathing room and choice than in recent years.

Prices are stable - not surging. Median prices across most segments (detached, attached, city, county) have been remarkably flat over the past year, creating a more predictable pricing environment for buyers entering the market.

Interest rates are trending down. After three years of 6%+ rates, today's rates are lower than most months in that timeframe - improving affordability and potentially creating more opportunities for you as we move into 2026.

And what about if you will be selling soon...

Homes are still selling - just not as quickly. Sales counts are down modestly and days on market have increased, so you should prepare for slightly longer on the market and avoid assuming we will immediately receive an offer.

Stable pricing supports strong list prices. Despite fewer sales, prices have held steady across nearly every category, signaling that well-priced homes are selling at favorable prices without needing deep discounts.

More competition means preparation matters. With inventory higher than last year and buyers having more choices, you will benefit from a strong pricing strategy, thoughtful preparations of your home, and ensuring that your home stands out both online and in person.

I'll be reaching out with my next market update... next year!?!!  So, enjoy the balance of 2025 and I hope you are able to spend some time with those who matter most to you over the coming weeks!