Lots to observe here, though please note that the 2025 total home sales figure (1,321) is an estimate, as I added theoretical December 2025 home sales by averaging the past three months of December.

So, some observations...

1.  Per the yellow arrow, if we take 2020-2022 out of the equation (because of Covid causing a mad rush on housing, and super low interest rates) then we see that the number of home sales per year has been generally trending upwards over the past 12 years.

2.  The 1,389 home sales last year was more than anytime in the 17 years before that - other than 2020-2022.

3.  The projected 1,321 home sales this year would be relatively similar to the number of home sales we have seen each year between 2016 and 2025... other than 2020-2022.

4.  The peak of 1,674 home sales in 2021 in the aftermath of Covid was only barely (+5) higher than the peak in 2005 which was largely due to loose lending decisions (subprime mortgages) causing many more people to buy than would have otherwise.

5.  Interestingly, the two surges (red bars) of 2004-2006 and 2020-2022 were both brought on by changes (in one way or another) in mortgage lending.  During 2004-2006, lending standards were allowing borrowers to qualify for loans that were not reasonable for them to be able to repay.  During 2020-2022 buyers were buying homes at super low interest rates.  

So, what might we see over the next three to five years?

I suspect we will see a slow increase in home sales each year for the next five years.

Perhaps (wild guesses here, as any five year guess would be) would include...

2025 = 1,321 

2026 = 1,375

2027 = 1,415

2028 = 1,455

2029 = 1,495

2030 = 1,535

What do you think will happen over the next five years relative to the number of homes that will be bought and sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?