Good Monday morning, friends!

Only one week until Fall begins... my favorite season of the year... with cooler temperatures, the beauty of the changing leaves, and good times with family and friends at JMU football games...

Read on for an update on our local housing market, but first...

Each month, I offer a giveaway to the readers of my monthly market report... and this month you have the chance to win a $50 gift card to 7 Brew, a drive through coffee (plus) establishment that will soon have two locations in Harrisonburg... who has spotted the second location.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card to 7 Brew.

Each weekday (M-F) I send out a quick note related to our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.  Recent stories have included...

Stay informed by subscribing to this daily email in addition to receiving my monthly market update.  Recent 

As referenced above, we have seen 6% fewer home sales this year than last... but if we narrow it down to just detached home sales (ignoring townhomes, duplexes and condos) it's an even sharper decline...

August was an outlier again... with a 9% increase in detached homes... but otherwise we are seeing across the board declines in detached home sales with a 12% decline in the first eight months of this year compared to last year.

Meanwhile... attached homes are doing OK...

It was a busy summer for attached home sales with 23% more taking place this summer than last... contributing to a 6% year-to-date increase in attached home sales.  The 328 attached home sales seen thus far in 2025 is also 28% higher than the number of attached home sales seen in the first eight months of 2023.  

Speaking of summer... what did the summer of home sales end up looking like this year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

Summer was a mixed bag it seems... higher home sales this year than last in June... but fewer in July... and then more in August!

In summary...

June 2024 through August 2024 = 379 home sales

June 2025 through August 2025 = 388 home sales

So... 2% more home sales this summer than last.  That may be an encouraging recent trend given the overall annual trend thus far...

The last time we saw mortgage interest rates below 4% was in early 2022... and 2022 was a blockbuster of a year for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  It was not surprising to then see a big drop off (1,571 down to 1,227) of home sales in 2023.

We saw an increase in home sales again in 2024... but... it didn't last long as home sales declined again in 2025.  At this point it seems certain that we will see an overall decline in home sales in 2025... though perhaps we'll have slightly more home sales this year than in 2023.

Will we see more home sales in 2026 than in 2025?  It's too early to say for sure, though mortgage interest rates have started to trend down over the past few weeks in anticipation of a possible (likely?) reduction in the federal funds rate this Wednesday.

The decline in home sales in 2025 may also be contributing to very (very) small price growth thus far in 2025...

After five years of steady, solid, significant increases in the median sales price of homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, that median sales price appears to be leveling out just shy of $350K.  If we see more home sales in 2026 (than in 2025) perhaps we will see that median sales price start to more meaningfully trend upwards again.

Side note... just as individual homes and neighborhoods did not all uniformly experience the same increases in home values as seen in the overall market over the past six years... likewise, some homes and neighborhoods have seen price growth over the past year even if the overall market has not.

And now we transition into some recent and/or forward looking trends that run counter to much of the narrative above.  Thus far we have talked about fewer home sales taking place... and prices barely rising... but now let's hit on a few more recent trends that tell a slightly different story....

We saw significantly lower numbers of buyers (and thus, sellers) signing contracts in the first half of 2025... but contracts in July 2025 exceed those signed in July 2024... and we saw significantly (!) more contract activity (139) in August 2025 as compared to the same month last year (108).  So... despite fewer home sales this year... recent months show higher levels of contract activity... pointing to a possible acceleration in local home sales.

And... when we look at the number of homes that are under contract...

The pending sales data above shows how many homes are under contract at any given time.  You'll note that this data point has been lower in 2025 (red line) than in 2024 (blue line) but that trend reversed itself in July 2025.  Perhaps it was (or seemed to be) too early to believe it last month... but now, we're seeing 322 pending home sales compared to only 262 at this time last year.  This also points to growing momentum in our local market.

And finally, one more trend that points to a reason for near-term optimism...

After seeing six months of steady growth in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... inventory levels started to decline over the past month, at least in part due to a strong surge of contract activity.

So... if we zoom out to a year or so of data, we find...

1.  Fewer home sales

2.  Tiny increases in median sales prices

But if we zoom into the past few months, we find...

1.  More home sales

2.  More contracts signed

3.  More homes under contract

4.  Falling inventory levels

So... perhaps we ought to be cautiously optimistic that after some rather significant cooling off in our local market...that we might be starting to see some modest growth and momentum.  Keeping in mind that the "cautious" part is based on plenty of data (12+ months) while the "optimistic" part is based on only a few months of data.

As per usual, we'll need to keep monitoring the overall market to get a sense of the latest local trends, while keeping in mind that all of the trends above may or may not directly relate to what you are experiencing in buying or selling a home right now... or what you will experience if you buy or sell a home soon.

All real estate is local... which is why I spend time analyzing our local market every month... but to get actionable insights to help guide you in buying a home or selling your home, we'll need to look more closely at homes in your particular price range, location, property type, etc.

1.  Don't wait on big price drops as they might not show up.  While price growth has certainly slowed (up just 1% year-to-date), prices aren't dropping overall. 

2.  Take advantage of higher inventory levels -- while they last.  Inventory had been rising for most of the year, giving you more choices -- but that trend is now reversing. 

3.  Be ready to act fast on the right home.  Despite an overall market slowdown, certain homes are still moving quickly -- especially well-priced, well-prepared homes. Get your financing lined up so you're ready to move forward quickly.

1.  Expect a slightly smaller buyer pool.  With fewer total sales this year and very little price growth, buyers are more cautious right now.  Pricing your home correctly from the start is more important than ever.

2.  It's reasonable to be optimistic based on recent buyer activity.  August showed a strong bump in contracts signed (up 29% compared to last year), and pending sales are now outpacing 2024. If your house is on the market now, or if you're planning to list this fall, you may be catching a wave of renewed buyer interest.

3.  Make sure your home competes well in a stabilizing market.  As home prices seemingly level out, buyers will be comparing your home to others more closely.  Make sure the comparison results in buyers wanting to buy your home.

Have Questions?

If you have questions about any of the data above... or about your current home or next home... reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.

If it would be helpful to meet to talk things through... just let me know.  I'm happy to meet up to chat over coffee, at my office, or at your house, etc.

Until next month... enjoy the fall temperatures... the beauty of fall in the Valley... and Go Dukes!