Happy Monday Morning, friends!

We're nearly mid-way through July... and this summer has been a whirlwind!  

It was great to see sooo many of you at Red Wing Roots in Mount Solon in June, to spend time with family and friends, and to enjoy wonderful music from so many talented artists such as The Steel Wheels.

Then, in another great community event, I ran in VA Momentum's Valley 4th Run in July with my daughter, my sisters, my niece, my brother-in-law, ok with about a thousand people it seemed.  Somehow I won my age group again in the 5K, at least partially because I'm still on the low end of that age bracket. ;-)

Most recently, I was on a trip with my wife and her parents that included a visit to Frank Lloyd Wright's Fallingwater -- this was an amazing experience to see tour the house and take in the architecture, the grounds and how they become one in this unique property.

A bit later this summer, I'll be headed to the beach with my three siblings, all the kids, and my dad.  

What has YOUR summer look like thus far, or what do you have planned for the balance of the summer?  Do you have any fun trips or experiences planned?

Now, a few more items to cover before we get to the latest data and trends in our local housing market.

[1]  Each month I offer a giveaway to the readers of my market report to a fun local or local-ish establishment.  This month, I'm featuring Monty's -- the restaurant in Hotel Madison.

Click here to enter to win a $50 gift card to Monty's.  

[2]  You can learn more about our housing market, and the home buying and selling process in general by reading my daily (M-F) email newsletter.  Recent topics have included...

  

  

  

  

Check out my daily newsletter over at Harrisonburg Housing Today, or subscribe to receive it each day by email.

[3]  If you will be selling your house soon, or if you are starting to consider a home purchase, I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.  

While the overall market has seen an 8% decline in the number of homes selling in the first half of 2025... the City of Harrisonburg has seen a... 26% decline!  It has been difficult to find a home to buy in the City of Harrisonburg during much of 2025.

Meanwhile, in the County...

Rockingham County (which is much larger than the City) has also seen a decline in home sales in 2025... but it has only been a 3% decline... as compared to that 26% decline in City home sales.  So, it has been slightly easier to find a home in the County than the City.

Finally, let's look just at new homes...

We have seen a sharp decline in the number of new homes that have sold with a 16% decline from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025... though that is still well above the first half of 2023.

Which leaves... existing homes... or resale homes...

We have seen 6% fewer existing home sales in the first half of 2025 as compared to the first half of last year.

So... overall... in almost every segment or corner of the market, we are seeing fewer homes selling.  But... we're going to see some interesting new trends below, so read on!

First new trend... more home sales in a month this year than last...

The first five months of 2025 showed fewer home sales... month after month... when compared to the same month in 2024.  That changed in June... with 140 home sales this June compared to only 130 last June.  Spoiler alert... perhaps this is tied into higher inventory levels... with more homes that buyers can choose to purchase?  Read on.

Here's a different way of looking at the monthly home sales...

While we have seen a slight decline (679 to 622) in home sales between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2025... we are actually seeing the same number of home sales in the first half of this year as compared to the first half of 2023.  Stay tuned to see how home sales will progress as we move through the balance of 2025... especially given rising inventory levels.

Next up... the main trends... visually...

So... you've heard me say it for quite a few months now... prices are rising more slowly than they have in recent years.  You'll see a broader view of that on the next graph... but here you'll note that the median sales price has risen 4% over the past 12 months, compared to 7% over the 12 months before that.

Meanwhile, we have seen 4% more home sales in the past 12 months as compared to the 12 months before that... reversing the trend of an 8% drop a year ago.

Now, that bigger picture on home prices...

If you look carefully, you'll see that we saw seven years in a row of 5% or higher increases in the median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham... beginning in 2018 and stretching through 2024.

Furthermore, we saw three years in a row of 10% or higher increase in the median sales price... beginning in 2020 and continuing through 2022.

Now, though, we have only seen a 1% increase in the median sales price when comparing the first half of 2025 to all of 2024.  

I don't think we will see the median sales price start to decline... but I do think we are likely to see 3% or lower increases in the median sales price over the next few years.

Looking ahead a bit, here's what we're finding with contract activity...

Second new trend... more contracts in a month this year than last.  For the first five months of 2025 we saw the same number or significantly fewer contracts being signed this year as compared to the same month last year.  Now, in June, that has changed.

After 117 contracts being signed in June, compared to 110 last June, do you think we will see another increase (compared to 2024) in July?

And now... a big change...

Third new trend... rapidly rising inventory levels!  We started off 2025 with 23% fewer homes for sale as compared to last year... but now there are 54% more homes for sale as compared to a year ago!  

I will spend some time in the coming days looking at the specifics of which segments of the market are seeing the most significant increases in inventory levels... but for now... know that there are quite a few more homes on the market now as compared to a year ago.

What do these higher inventory levels mean for buyers and sellers?

[1]  Home buyers likely have more choices.

[2]  Home buyers likely don't have to make a decision about an offer as quickly.

[3]  Home sellers likely have more competition.

[4]  Home buyers might be able to negotiate some, or keep contingencies in their offer that they would have recently left out.

But of course... this is all specific to your specific market segment, price range, neighborhood, house, etc.  

For example... rising overall inventory levels don't help a buyer secure a contract on a house when there are three offers on that same house.  

Moving on past inventory levels... despite that increase in inventory levels, homes still seem to be going under contract just about as quickly as they have for the past year....

And finally... since only a small handful of people pay cash to buy a home... mortgage interest rates affect most buyers and most contemplated offers.  We haven't seen much change in interest rates lately, though maybe (?!?) we will soon!?

So, what does all of this mean for you?

1.  You might have more options, given rising inventory levels.

2.  Prices aren't going up quite as quickly now as they have been recently, which can help your monthly payment.

3.  Most houses are still going under contract quickly, so despite higher inventory levels, you might still need to act quickly in making an offer.

1.  Look around a bit, as you may have more competition than has existed recently.

2.  Appropriate pricing is more important than ever - buyers won't pay "any price" given that home prices aren't rising as quickly now as they have been recently.

3.  Well prepared, well priced and well marketed houses are still going under contract quickly.